XRP - High Timeframe Analysis - SHORT TRADE SETUPDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice, this is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence.
Utilizing my 12 Month - 2 Week - 12 Hour Mult-Timeframe approach, I have identified XRP as a market that I would consider shorting IF price action satisfies my rules for entry.
The 2023 candle traded up into the 2022 high and failed to close beyond it. For this reason, I have a bearish bias down to the 2023 lows.
XRP intermediate timeframe (2 week) is currently delivering price bearishly, and is currently in a intermediate timeframe bearish orderblock, which is a point of interest for me to look for entries. For this reason, I am satisfied taking an entry on the 12 hour timeframe if we get one of the following entries: Bearish change-in-state-of-delivery (CISD), 18 Period MA Entry, 10h8c MAC w/ Acc/Dis confirmation. I note that if price trades up into some of the intermediate term swing highs that I would consider shorting there as well, in the event that price trades through the intermediate timeframe bearish orderblock.
Let me know if you have any questions about this multi-timeframe approach.
I hope you are all having a great week.
Good Luck & Good Trading.
M-oscillator
Gold coiling up ahead of another bullish breakout?Gold has been coiling under the record highs for a while now, constantly testing and bouncing from uptrend support over the past two weeks. While momentum indicators have yet to turn bullish, the upward bias in the price suggests we should be on alert for a bullish breakout.
Traders keen to take on the long trade have two potential options.
The first is to buy here with a stop below the uptrend, possibly just under $2500. To make the trade work from a risk-reward perspective, you’d need to target a move beyond the record high of $2531.81. The second option is to wait for the potential breakout above the record high. If it occurs, you could buy with a stop below the level for protection.
As we’re talking uncharted territory, round numbers may provide potential targets; think $2550 and $2600. It’s only a line running from two former highs, but keep an eye out for possible resistance around $2567.
Good luck!
DS
$SPY September 12, 2024AMEX:SPY September 12, 2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY managed to hold recent low of 539.44 by making a low 539.95 and reversing.
So again it touched top of channel as seen and bounced back.
Even the close of 539.95 bar was good being at top of bar, we have oscillator making LL for the two lows 543.4 and 539.95.
Hence i expect a retracement first.
Considering the rise 539.95 to 553.36 if AMEX:SPY holds 548+ levels uptrend continues.
So as long as 545 is not broken we can expect one more move towards 560-563.
I will not short as ass values above moving averages.
Yesterday covered short at 540.5.
My stochastic indicator has turned from red to green bar as seen. Hence any retracement is a buy for me until any change.
APTOS Sell Position / Setup SettingBINANCE:APTUSDT
COINBASE:APTUSD
Hello Traders
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
👾The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
On the chart
🔴SL:
On the chart
🧐The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes below the trigger zone, the setup will be cancelled.
High Timeframe Analysis of the Dollar Index DXY - Short IdeaDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only, showing how I intend to participate in this market. Trading involves significant risk. Do your own due diligence.
Utilizing my Multi Timeframe strategy, I have identified that I would like to look for SHORTS on DXY. To clarify, I'm not saying I'm blindly shorting this market. If I see price action that checks the boxes for this strategy, I will take the short. Until then, I do NOTHING.
SETUP - > TRIGGER - > FOLLOW THROUGH.
Feel free to shoot me a message with any questions.
Have a great week!
Sideways movement is likely.Greetings.
There are very high expectations that bitcoin and with it the market will go down.
If you think so, I will not dissuade you.
The 2024 market is very different from 2020-21 and 2016-17.
There is a lot more manipulation and sideways movement in it.
Here are a few things I noticed on TOTAL.
On the left is 4H chart.
Kijun has crossed the red cloud and
Tenkan may act as support for continued upside movement.
9 seasons of rainbow show a developing bullish signal.
Oversold (blue) has changed to green (rising) on the two ribbons.
On the right is 1D.
The nature of the fickle clouds (red-green-red-green-red-green) hints that this is a sideways move, AND right today the kijun-sen line is being tested. If the market finds this support it will move towards the green clouds, but these swings could be in the 1.8-2.2 trillion range.
SQZMOM is showing signs of reversal.
ASX 200 futures enter the “death zone” for bulls ASX 200 SPI futures and bullish moves above 8000 haven’t mixed well in 2024, resulting in a raft of failed breaks, long topside wicks and topping patterns. It’s akin to a “death zone” for bulls, starving rallies of oxygen before eventually reversing.
I’m not outright bearish just because we’re back above the level, especially when momentum indicators are providing mixed signals, but I am interested in what happens near-term as it may dictate what happens longer-term. We’ll either get another topping pattern, or a bullish raid will finally stick. So, I’m waiting. I’m especially interested in how the price fares around 8080, if it gets there. The market has only been able to push through it once and never closed there.
Given the track record and current valuations, I’m more inclined to sell rallies but I want the price signal to do so. If we see another failed attempt around 8080, you could sell with a stop either above the level or the high set in August, depending on your eventual target. On the downside, the 50-day moving average looms as one, with 7871, 7794 and 7721 the next after that.
If the price were to break and close above 8121 before extending the move, the bearish bias would be negated.
Good luck!
DS
A Trade as Simple as "Shooting Ducks in a Barrel" - BTC LONGDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational and entertainment purposes only to demonstrate how I intend to participate in this market. Trading involves real risk. Do your own due diligence.
People like myself (with average-to-below average intelligence) need a simple strategy.
My "Ducks in a Barrel" strategy is exactly that. Simple. Clear. Rules Based. Effective. Zero Discretion.
BTC (and several other cryptos, for that matter), are setup for "Ducks in a Barrel" long trades. Lets review the process for identifying these setups. To be clear, this is not a "long now" post. This market is SETUP. This is not a timing tool. We get into the market once we get a technical long TRIGGER on the Daily timeframe. From there, we FOLLOW THROUGH on the trade by managing risk and maximizing profit. Without the TRIGGER, we have not trade.
STEP 1: Identify a market with a strong trend on the weekly timeframe. I utilize the 39 and 52 period MA. For uptrends, we want to see both MA's sloping up and pulling away from each other. We see on BTC that the two MA's are still upward sloping and pulling away from each other. This confirms step 1, that we are in a strong uptrend.
STEP 2: We need at least 2 of the following to be in unison with the direction we want to trade (in the case of BTC, we need 2 of these to support the long idea).
VALUATION: For longs, we need an undervaluation vs Gold &/or Treasuries.
STOCHASTIC: For longs, we need to see the market is oversold.
SENTIMENT: For longs, we want to see Bearish advisor sentiment (we fade the public sentiment).
STEP 3: We see that BTC is Oversold on the Stochastic and is Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries. This meets our criteria of 2/3 indicators supporting our idea. This market is now SET UP for longs. Now we wait for the TRIGGER.
STEP 4: We are waiting for Step 4 in Bitcoin right now. We need to see an entry TRIGGER on the daily timeframe via one of the following entry techniques.
18 Period MA Entry
10 high 8 close MAC w/ Williams Acc/Dis 57 MA Confirmation Entry
Stop either 150% of 3 Period ATR, or 2 times the width of the MAC, whichever is greater.
There are other entry techniques, but they are higher risk. The two entry techniques above will not catch the absolute bottom, but will ensure that you are buying into a confirmed trend change. Other entry techniques come with the risk of trying to "bottom/top" pick, which increases your odds of several losses prior to the real move occuring.
If you have questions about the "Ducks in a Barrel" strategy, feel free to shoot me a message.
I hope you all have a great week.
And as always.....
Good Luck & Good Trading.
Short position on SUPERUSDT / Which one is correct?BINANCE:SUPERUSDT
COINBASE:SUPERUSD
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
👾The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
0.6712
0.6605
0.6517
0.6408
0.6266
SL:
0.7181
The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes above the trigger zone, the setup will be cancelled.
Buy NOW think later!!
1. Moderna is extremely oversold and we’re starting to see a very reliable bottoming pattern; i.e. bullish divergence on the RSI. This exact setup was seen few months back (see chart) and that’s how I called the bottom back then.
2. Given all the news about bird flu, not only does it put a floor underneath this stock but makes it quite likely a major rally initiates VERY SOON.
3. I think MRNA is in a major ABC wave. The strong move down past 3-4 months was wave B and a wave C could start soon.
there’s an easy double if one buys at CMP
$SPY September 9, 2024AMEX:SPY September 9, 2024
15 Minutes.
AS expected, AMEX:SPY being under all moving averages in 15 minutes kept on making lows for 2 days.
Now if we consider the fall 551.58 to 539.44 then 544-546 is a good level to short.
I will but only above 565 at the moment.
If we take the rise from 510 to 564 AMEX:SPY has retraced 50% of the move. Now holding 530 is important as it is the 61.8% retracement for the move.
536 looks a good target now as it is also 100 averages in daily time frame.
The oscillator in 15 minutes is making lower low along with price.
200 averages in 15 minutes are around 553 levels.
So, at the moment downtrend in 15 minutes.
US30 - Daily Resistance / Bearish ContinuationFX:US30 reached the daily resistance level and was unable to continue the bullish price action. Price has formed bearish structure on 4 hr after forming bearish divergence on the chart. I am expecting the bearish trend to continue before price can trend higher.
Just a consolidation or a downtrend ? Since hitting an all time high in March, Bitcoin has been consolidating within a downtrend channel.
the Price is currently oscillating between the 23.60% ($60’000 area), currently acting as resistance, and the 38.20% ($51’500 area), currently acting as resistance.
The MACD is confirming that further downside potential appears technically viable, notwithstanding the expected interim rallies, until the price is able to break out of its down-trending channel.
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT Gold - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Gold (GC)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in GC if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials around max short of last 2 years = bearish.
True Seasonal: Seasonal down to October.
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not yet confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT CAD - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Canadian Dollar (6C)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6C if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
OI Analysis: Upmove in price has seen Commercials aggressively move to the short side - bearish.
Valuation: Overvalued vs Treasuries
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
Smart Money Positioned to SHORT JPY - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
SHORT
Japanese Yen (6J)
My COT strategy has me on alert for short trades in 6B if we get a confirmed bearish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Sell Signal
Valuation: Overvalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Extreme Positioning: Commercials most short they have been in last 3 years = bearish. Small Specs most long they have been in 3 years = bearish.
OI Analysis: OI has been increasing on up move. When OI increases, we need to ask "who caused the OI increase"? When it is caused by Large Specs & Small Specs, it is bearish.
True Seasonal: Strong seasonal tendency to go down to October.
COT Small Spec Index: Sell Signal
Supplementary Indicators: %R & Momentum (not confirmed)
Remember, this is not a "Short Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the downside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the downside.
Good luck & good trading.
BULLISH CYPHER BTCUSD3 Bullish indicators for BTC
Bullish Cyper: All the retraces are valid for this pattern. The .786 retrace from X-D is perfectly aligned with an important support from history that was created in 2021. The X-B retrace is 100% clearly present there and the A-C retrace is almost just there.
Classic Bullish Divergence: Higher lows on the MACD and RSI oscillators and lower lows on the price validates this pattern. This perfectly aligns with the pivot of the Bullish Cypher and the historical support line.
Overall Context of the Structure: the context of the structure is reasonable. These pattern usually appear after a correction and it seems to be the case for BTC right now. It is also easy to set a stop loss because of that support line and everything under. If BTC falls below that support line, expecting further downside.
Smart Money Positioned to LONG Platinum - COT StrategyDISCLAIMER: This is not trade advice. This is for educational purposes only to demonstrate how I am looking to participate in this market. There is significant risk involved in trading, do your own homework and due diligence.
COT Strategy
LONG
Platinum (PL)
My COT strategy has me on alert for long trades in PL if we get a confirmed bullish change of trend on the Daily timeframe.
COT Commercial Index: Buy Signal
Valuation: Undervalued vs Gold & Treasuries
Bullish Spread Divergence
Supplementary Indicators: Stochastic & %R
Remember, this is not a "Long Now" idea. These indicators are not timing tools. They simply tell us that this market could have a move of some significance to the upside, which we will participate in with a confirmed Daily trend change to the upside.
Good luck & good trading.