SMH throws mixed signals compared to QQQSMH indicators, EMA crossover, and stock throws mixed signals
EMA remains below its SMA line
RSI breaks slightly above its SMA
stock price remains firmly inside lower resistance line
SMH is rather prone to false breakouts. So the RSI breakout above could be a fake out for sure. Prefer to wait for extra confirmation of new direction with SMH before making trades on it.
SMH is overall giving more bearish direction than bullish.
M-oscillator
Short position on COMPUSDT / Follow for updatesBINANCE:COMPUSDT
COINBASE:COMPUSD
SL1 ---> Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
SL2 ---> Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
➡️Entry Area:
Yellow zone
⚡️TP:
On the Chart
SL:
On the Chart
The Alternate scenario:
If the price stabilizes above the trigger zone, the setup will be cancelled.
ARB/USDT 15m / D BB & FVG / ELLIOT / LIQUIDATIONS / FIBOAccording to higher timeframes, the market sentiment is bullish. We are moving within an ascending channel with the potential to rise to 0.7416. To increase the probability of this outcome, the price needs to establish itself above the ascending channel.
Locally, within the range of the daily breaker block (D BB) and the daily imbalance (D FVG), three potential entry points are visible:
1. Liquidity grab (Sellside liquidity)
2. 0.5 Fibo
3. 0.618 Fibo / bottom of the ascending channel
4. The target is the local high, which is at the midline of the channel.
Locally, based on the EFIATR oscillator, volume, and liquidation levels, there is a likelihood of growth. According to Elliott Wave theory, a 5-wave pattern and an ABC correction in the 4th wave are visible, which further increases the probability of upward movement.
Volkswagen: BUYThe Doji on the Monthly chart shows that the downtrend is exhausted at historic Change of Polarity support. Stochastics are oversold. Price hit the Monthly Bollinger lower band and Yearly Pivots Fibonacci S1 support. Target is next major Fibonacci level above which coincides with Daily chart Falling Window resistance.
Long: 105.70
Target: 125.00
SL: 100.7
Max 10% of trading capital.
Deep dive into Acceleration / Deceleration Indicator Hello, Skyrexians!
Last time we discussed how you can use the Awesome Oscillator to create profitable crypto trading strategies and which type of signals it generates. Today we will deep dive into Acceleration/Deceleration (AC) the next Bill Williams indicator, which can also enhance your cryptocurrency trading strategy. This indicator also can be valuable not only for manual trades, but also for developing your crypto trading algorithm, crypto algo trading platform, crypto trading bot, ai trading bot or grid bot.
The main thing is to understand what is the AC indicator and which signals it generate, which signals we shall use in crypto trading like top crypto traders. Let's go!
What is Acceleration / Deceleration?
The Acceleration/Deceleration Oscillator (AC) is a technical analysis indicator developed by Bill Williams, a notable trader and author known for his work in market psychology and trading systems. This indicator helps traders identify changes in market momentum and potential trend reversals.
How the Acceleration/Deceleration (AC) Indicator Works? The AC indicator is based on the idea that the momentum of the market (speed of price movement) often changes before the price itself changes. By identifying these shifts in momentum early, traders can anticipate potential trend changes.
The AC is derived from the Awesome Oscillator (AO), another indicator created by Bill Williams, which is the difference between a 34-period and a 5-period simple moving average of the median price (the average of high and low prices).
The AC is calculated by subtracting a 5-period simple moving average of the AO from the AO itself. Mathematically, it can be represented as:
AC = AO − SMA5(AO)
Where AO is Awesome Oscillator (calculated as the difference between the 34-period SMA and the 5-period SMA of the median price). SMA5(AO) is 5-period simple moving average of the AO. Now let's consider which types of signals AC can generate.
Long Position on APTUSDT 1H / (Volume Projection)BINANCE:APTUSDT
COINBASE:APTUSD
Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
👾The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
⚡️TP:
5.96
6.05
6.15
6.25
6.32
6.45
6.52
6.60(In Optimistic Scenario)
➡️SL:
5.6
🧐The Alternate scenario:
🔴If the price stabilizes below the trigger zone, the setup will be cancelled.
Long Position on ZENUSDT / (Volume Projection)BINANCE:ZENUSDT
COINBASE:ZENUSD
Mid-risk status: 5x-8x Leverage
Low-risk status: 3x-4x Leverage
👾The setup is active but expect the uncertain phase as well.
⚡️TP:
8.09
8.39
8.73
9.07
9.46
9.78
10.20
(In Optimistic Scenario)
➡️SL:
6.80
🧐The Alternate scenario:
🔴If the price stabilizes below the trigger zone, the setup will be cancelled.
Highstreet (HIGH) - Easiest long trade.. ..since long trades were invented. Basically it is free money.
On above 3-day chart price action has corrected 80% since 20 days ago! Market participants have capitulated. Take advantage.
Previously price action has corrected to confirm support on past resistance. Sure it will break if it is meant to this time, but not right now. That is what makes this an easy trade. Look left.
The previous two support confirmations resulted in bounces of 50% and 100% (growing), respectively. On this bounce sellers are absent, which will make for a stronger support confirmation than the previous two.
How can I be so sure? Experience laddie and ladets.
Zooming in down to the 18hr chart we can see all oscillators are now recording bullish divergence (black circles). Divergencies that were just as strong when the market was bearish. This time on the reversal.
Is it possible price action correction further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
18hr
GOLD - ShortGold maintained its upward momentum, while a negative divergence formed with the RSI oscillator. As the price reached its new ATH (all-time high) at 2,530, the RSI oscillator remained in bullish momentum above 50 and formed a negative divergence which Is an early warning for a probable retracement. Next levels lower to look at 2,446 & 2,360
GBPUSD - ShortGBPUSD trading in an upward channel, where the price is currently trading below its upper band. However, a retest of the upper band level along with the resistance at 1.3140 is probable before the retracement lower. The RSI currently is at its overbought level strengthening the opinion of a retracement. Next probable target is at 1.2920 and if continue lower 1.2870 coming into the scope.
Here’s a warning for latecomers to the EUR/USD rallyEUR/USD has surged to highs not seen since July 2023. However, such has been the rush to buy since the start of August, it’s now sitting at extremely overbought levels on RSI (14) on the daily.
That should be a worry for late-to-the-party longs considering that outside the early stages of the pandemic, whenever EUR/USD has been this overbought, it’s coincided with some form of near-term top. Some have been small reversals, other considerably larger.
While that doesn’t guarantee another reversal on this occasion, it is a warning to those chasing the pair higher ahead in anticipation of Fed rate cuts. They were priced in long ago with the magnitude of expected easing not really changing over the past fortnight even as the dollar sank. The move comes across as technically driven, potentially making the signal from RSI more significant.
If we were to see a EUR/USD reversal, 1.1140, 1.10452 and 1.0948 are downside levels to note. Should the signal from RSI prove to be false, a continuation of the rally would likely target a push towards 1.12760, the high set in July last year. Watch for a topping pattern to strengthen the conviction of the trade. That’s not arrived yet on the daily timeframe.
DS
How to use Implied Volatility Index to analyze Bitcoin▮ Introduction
Bitcoin is known for its price volatility. Analyzing the price chart alone is often not enough to make buy and sell decisions.
Implied volatility indexes such as DERIBIT:DVOL and VOLMEX:BVIV can complement traditional technical analysis by providing insights into market sentiment and expectations.
▮ Understanding DVOL/BVIV
DVOL and BVIV measure the expected implied volatility of Bitcoin over the next 30 days, derived from real-time call and put options.
DVOL is calculated by Deribit, the world's largest Bitcoin and Ether options exchange.
BVIV is calculated by Volmex Finance; the data is extracted from exchanges (currently Deribit and OKX), and then combined into a single set.
* In addition to Bitcoin, it is possible to analyze Ethereum-specific instruments through the ticks DERIBIT:ETHDVOL and VOLMEX:EVIV, whose line of reasoning is the same.
▮ Interpreting the chart
🔶 High DVOL/BVIV values indicate that the market expects greater volatility in the next 30 days. This is usually associated with uncertainty, fear, or expected major events.
🔶 The index does not indicate the direction of the price, but rather whether volatility will increase or decrease.
🔶 Low values indicate an expectation of lower volatility and are usually associated with calmer and more optimistic markets.
🔶 To get an idea of the expected daily movement of Bitcoin, simply divide the DVOL value by 20. For example, a DVOL of 100 indicates an expected daily movement of 5%.
🔶 Divergences between the price of Bitcoin and DVOL/BVIV can signal inflection points.
🔶 Price rising with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential top.
🔶 Price falling with a drop in DVOL/BVIV may indicate exhaustion and a potential bottom.
▮ Example
The price of BTC here is at the top in white.
The DVOL and the RSI of DVOL are both in red.
The reason I put the RSI here is that it is easier to analyze DVOL, since the values are in a fixed range, therefore easier to interpret.
On March 25, 2022, the RSI shows a contracted value of 30, that is, low implied volatility. This foreshadows a period of calm that precedes a period of agitation.
In this case, the “agitation” soon materializes in a period of price decline.
When the RSI then reaches the upper limit range, at 83 (on May 12, 2022), a peak in volatility is characterized.
Then, after that, it begins to decrease. This decrease in volatility in DVOL corroborates the moment of Bitcoin’s lateralization within the orange box.
▮ Conclusion
Although DVOL and BVIV should not be used in isolation, they can be valuable tools for confirming price chart signals and anticipating major movements.
Incorporating implied volatility analysis into your strategy, can improve the timing of entries/exits and help manage risk.
⚠️ But remember:
Just because a strategy worked in the past does not mean it will work forever.
Past profitability is no guarantee of future profitability.
Do your own analysis and risk management.
Bitcoin’s Bullish Reversal: This Chart Pattern Can Send BTC HighHere's where I see Bitcoin going next.
As the US elections and the FED rate cuts come closer, the macro conditions are getting ready for a Bitcoin breakout.
Here's the explanation for the TA:
Descending Channel: Bitcoin has been trading within a downward channel. However, there's potential for a bullish breakout if the price moves above the channel's upper resistance, which is around $65k.
Key Support at GETTEX:52K -$53K: This level has provided strong support, preventing further declines.
Rounded Bottom: The price action is forming a rounded bottom pattern, a bullish reversal signal, suggesting that the downtrend might be coming to an end.
RSI Indicator: The RSI around 49.85 indicates a neutral momentum, but the upward movement suggests a possible shift towards a bullish trend.
If Bitcoin breaks out of the descending channel and holds above $53K, it will trigger a significant upward move, and perhaps the start of a new bull run.
SMH shows signs of weakness for first time SMH rally is showing weakness in multiple places for first time.
EMA crosses below SMA for first time since rally started
RSI shows signs of price divergence by trending down while price makes higher highs.
This is more cautionary at this point and keep in mind. I wouldn't add to any bullish positions but instead tighten stop losses and seek to start taking some profits.
EURUSD 4H Retest on the Big triangle from DailyEURUSD 4H
On this 4H chart we look closer in the current situation. There are a few things to take in consideration:
The market structure on EURUSD has changed from Bearish to Bullish with the latest up swing. This transition is indicated from the blue lines and the orange lines
The price is forming a double divergence on the MACD and the RSI. This suggests that the price can correct to the previous MH point of the bullish structure which aligns with the resistance of the triangle (now a support for the price)
Once the price potentially corrects to that level, it will be important to monitor close in order to determine if this is a retest or a false breakout and get an idea how to trade it
Expedia Could Be Traveling NorthExpedia has gone nowhere for most of the year, but some traders may think the travel stock has begun a northward journey.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the bullish price gap on August 9 after earnings and revenue beat estimates. EXPE has made successively higher lows every session since then, which may indicate that buyers are in control.
Second, prices are near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA). The stock is also negative on the year (notice its high from early February). Could that longer-term lethargy create opportunity for shorter-term bulls – especially after a strong quarterly report?
Third, there could be reason to think it’s happening: Notice how MACD has turned positive and the 8-day exponential moving average (EMA) crossed above the 21-day EMA.
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Voxies (VOXEL)On the above 6-day chart price action has corrected by 95% since January 2022. Today is great long opportunity. Why?
1) RSI and price action resistance breakouts.
2) Multiple oscillators print bullish divergence across a 4-6 month period, very powerful.
3) Seller weakness. Notice the long candle wicks into seller territory? This is especially true on the BTC pair.
4) Price action prints support on past resistance since breakout. Look left.
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: Now, don’t sit on your hands.
Return: No idea
Deep dive into Awesome OscillatorsHello, Skyrexians!
We continue our series of educational content. Today it's time to consider the Awesome Oscillator, the indicator introduced by Bill Williams in his book "Trading Chaos". It can be very useful in your crypto trading. A lot of crypto trading strategies use this indicator. You can combine it with other indicators to create your crypto trading algorithm, trading bot or manual cryptocurrency trading strategy. Most of top crypto traders and top crypto trading platforms use it in their automated crypto trading. If you will be aware you to trade using Awesome Oscillator will be able to enhance your automated trading bot, manual trading strategy or setup grid trading bot more effectively. We think there is enough arguments to learn how to use this indicator. Let's start our deep dive!
What is Awesome Oscillator?
The Awesome Oscillator (AO) is a momentum indicator used in technical analysis to measure the strength and direction of a market trend. It was created by Bill Williams and is designed to help traders identify potential reversals or trend continuations.
Key Features of the Awesome Oscillator:
Momentum Measurement: The AO measures the difference between a short-term moving average and a long-term moving average, using midpoints of each candlestick rather than closing prices. This provides insights into the market's momentum.
Histogram Representation: The indicator is typically displayed as a histogram, with bars oscillating above and below a zero line. Green bars represent increasing momentum (bullish), while red bars indicate decreasing momentum (bearish).
The Awesome Oscillator is calculated using simple moving average(SMA) as follows:
AO = SMA(5-period) − SMA(34-period)
Now let's consider the signals which can be produced by Awesome Oscillator with the examples.