Valuation Trade Setups: NVDA, AVGO, GOOGL, AMZN, PINS & SilverI have been filled long on some trades based on my valuation trading strategy.
In this video I explain the strategy (conditional criteria, entries & money management) implemented with this weeks entries in NVDA, AVGO & Silver (as well as resting orders for GOOGL, AMZN & PINS). I also briefly explain the idea of "relative strength", which I applied this week when I decided to long Silver instead of Copper.
Enjoy.
M-oscillator
A fool's buy order.Hi.
I've had a lot of burns with choosing the right entry points in different assets,
so I've formed a strong cynicism towards the 2024 market.
CHZ is a great asset, exploding in the good old days.
Yes, I see a lot of people waiting for his shot right now.
However, using a large timeframe (10D) and the latest Linear Regression Oscillator ,
you can see that things could be potentially volatile over the next few months
and a squeeze to the lows is possible.
Oversold conditions may develop for some more time.
In addition, my favourite SQZMOM warns of an imminent start
of a downward expansion (grey cross).
What did I do?
I placed a buy order.
At $0.015 . :)
If I turn out to be right, I will enter more than successfully.
If it turns out that the Daily timeframe has already confirmed
support and a move is only forming upwards,
I will consider buying from current levels.
Long USD/JPY idea into BOJ and Fed meetingsBOJ rates pricing is as hawkish as it’s been since before the GFC. At the same time, expectations for rate cuts from the Fed over the next 12 months are nearing levels seen in January.
For a FX pair with a rolling daily correlation of 0.95 over the past month with two-year yield spreads between the US and Japan, it suggests there is only limited scope for narrowing interest rate differentials to drive further downside in USD/JPY over the near-term.
When you look at the daily chart, with USD/JPY nearing key support at 151.95 and divergence between RSI and price warning of waning downside momentum, risk-reward appears skewed towards initiating longs heading into the BOJ and Fed meetings later today.
Should we see USD/JPY push towards 151.95, consider going long with a tight stop below the level for protection. Probes higher over the past week have stalled above 154.54, making that a potential initial trade target. Should 155.375 be taken out, the next target would likely be the important 50-day moving average.
Should the trade move in your favour, consider lifting your stop loss or using a trailing stop to protect against reversal. Good luck!
DS
XRP/USD Monthly MACD Crossover: Potential Bullish SignalThis analysis examines a potential bullish signal for XRP (Ripple) against the US dollar (USD) based on a monthly MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) crossover.
What is a MACD Crossover?
The MACD is a technical indicator used to gauge momentum and identify potential trend changes. It consists of two lines: the MACD line (faster moving average) and the signal line (slower moving average). When the MACD line crosses above the signal line, it can indicate a shift in momentum from bearish (downtrend) to bullish (uptrend).
XRP/USD Monthly MACD Crossover:
On the monthly XRP/USD chart, a recent MACD crossover suggests a potential long-term trend reversal towards a bullish direction. However, it's crucial to understand the limitations of this indicator:
Time Frame: Monthly charts provide a broad perspective, but price movements can be slow. Reaching the $1 target price might take an extended period.
Confirmation and Additional Factors:
For a more complete analysis, consider these additional factors:
Price Action: Look for confirmation from price action on the monthly chart. Bullish candlestick patterns preceding the MACD crossover can strengthen the signal. Resources like www.investopedia.com provide detailed explanations.
Other Indicators: Supportive signals from other technical indicators, such as increasing trading volume or a rising RSI (Relative Strength Index), can bolster the bullish case. You can learn more about the RSI at www.investopedia.com
Fundamental Analysis: Technical indicators provide technical insights, but fundamental factors like upcoming developments, regulatory changes, or the overall health of the Ripple ecosystem can significantly impact XRP's price. Conduct research to understand these factors.
Risk Management:
Don't chase price: Avoid the urge to buy XRP if its price starts to surge following the MACD crossover. A measured approach involves waiting for a potential pullback or a confirmation signal before entering a trade.
Set Stop-Loss Orders: Always implement stop-loss orders to limit potential losses if the price movement contradicts your expectations.
Conclusion:
The monthly MACD crossover on the XRP/USD chart is a potentially bullish signal, but it should be used in conjunction with other technical indicators, fundamental analysis, and proper risk management practices. By understanding the limitations of individual indicators and conducting thorough research, you can make more informed investment decisions in the cryptocurrency market.
BoringThe price is in a sideward range for more than 2 years now,. Insofar we should not expect to much now.
We have reached the bottom of the multiple resistance once again and might fluctuate a bit upward now. But one thing has changed: First time since May 2022 the cloud has turned bullish and we have reached its top what makes the support a bit harder.
Perhaps we may see a turnaround now. At least the downward risk is not large.
FLIGHT FLAREHi!
This is the situation on many altcoins, and FLARE is no exception.
A 4 hour or 1 day chart will tell you a little bit about what awaits this altcoin.
You need charts of at least 1 week, and preferably more.
That's 10D (as there is not yet the right history here to effectively apply 19D or 26D).
Watch the Ichimoku clouds.
The Tenkan and Kijun crossed with a golden cross. And soon crossed with the death cross.
In addition, the indication lines entered the cloud. But the Kijun is under the Tenkan and the candles are below both lines.
That's a bad sign, the price will fall out of the cloud.
We're probably talking about a retest of the bottom at $0.0078.
I'm going to place buy orders from 0.017 to 0.008 with 10% spacing between buy orders.
The green cloud may not start to form until the spring of 2025. I have schematically drawn it, while I am not clear about the potential of the asset, but judging by the chart it is big.
Long Kiwi setup looking for a revival in risk appetiteThe New Zealand dollar is a binary bet on how investor risk appetite evolves this week. Having plunged over the past fortnight before bouncing off horizontal support, a setup is in place to look for a reversal. We just need risk assets to oblige.
To reinforce how influential risk assets have been on the Kiwi, its rolling daily correlation with Nasdaq futures sits at 0.92 over the past month. With copper futures it’s an even stronger 0.95 and 0.89 with USD/JPY. It’s deeply negative with the VIX at -0.88, indicating that when volatility spikes, Kiwi usually tumbles.
That suggests Microsoft’s earnings report and speculation before the Fed are likely to heavily influence NZD/USD over the next 24 hours.
NZD/USD screens as decent long setup from a risk-reward perspective, oversold yet still able to bounce off .59593 at the first time of testing, an important level that has provided support in the past. While no guarantee this time will be the same, when RSI has sat at these kinds of levels over reccent years, it has often occurred around a market bottom.
Those taking on the long trade could buy above .58593 with a stop below for protection. Some selling may be encountered at .5900 but there isn’t any real visible resistance levels evident until we get back towards .5985 of .60491.
DS
Is Solana at risk of a price reversal? What historic trends say:Solana (SOL), the world’s fourth-largest cryptocurrency, gained massive attention as it broke out of the crucial resistance level of $187.
Following SOL’s crucial breakout, there is a high chance that it could rise to the next resistance, which is near $204.
However, there is also a concern among the new investors about a potential price reversal from this upcoming resistance.
According to the historical data and price action, whenever SOL has reached the $204 level, it has consistently experienced a notable price reversal.
Since March 2024, SOL has reached this level twice and experienced a significant price reversal each time, which is the reason for the concern among new investors.
As of writing, SOL is trading near $184 and has experienced a 4.5% upside move in the last 24 hours. Despite an impressive price surge, trading volume has dropped by 18% over the same period.
This decline in trading volume might indicate that investors and traders are conscious of the resistance level due to the historical price reversal.
According to technical analysis, SOL recently broke out of the crucial resistance level of $187, and was heading toward the next resistance level of $204.
Following this breakout, there is a high possibility that SOL could reach the $204 level in the coming days.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, signaling trend steadiness.
Also, major liquidation levels emerged near the $180 and $203 levels.
This creates a potentially bullish outlook for SOL.
The Cloud is the BottomToday's steep fall was way to steep. We have reached the top of the rising cloud which will be a support. We could not stay below the Island which we had entered 12th-14th June. This signals an oversold status.
A correction of the fall since 16th June is likely now if not a resumption of the uptrend.
Why I Think GBPUSD Will Buy This Week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends,
I hope all is well! This is only a technical analysis of GBPUSD, so make sure you cross-reference your charts and check the news. I think this pair will continue to buy and here is what I am looking at:
- The 3 EMA (blue/smaller) has crossed over the 10 EMA (purple/larger). This is a bullish confirmation for me.
- The stochastic is facing up, the fast line (blue) is above the slow line (orange) and both lines are above. These are all bullish confirmations for me
- The candles have broken and closed above the top trend line. This is a bullish confirmation for me.
Additional confirmations you can wait for:
- Price to close above 1.28900
My TPs will be set at previous highs and my SL will be at a previous low.
Happy Trading and good luck if you decide to take this trade!
Peace and Profits,
Cha
FTSE 100 futures reverse hard to stage bullish breakoutFrom dire to delightful in the space of two sessions – that’s was the rollercoaster ride UK FTSE 100 bulls had to endure late last week with futures taking out stops layered below 8152 before reversing hard on Friday, taking out the 50-day moving average and downtrend resistance dating back to the record highs set in May. Closing at the highest level since June 24, it looks like the move may extend further this week with MACD and RSI triggering bullish signals, hinting at a potential retest of the former highs.
Those looking for this outcome have a variety of setups to choose from depending on how the price action evolves on Monday.
Ideally, a retest and hold above the 50-day moving average would be the preferred setup, allowing for a stop to be placed below the level for protection. Potential upside targets include 8351.5 and record high of 8489.
For those itching to buy the breakout immediately, you could place a stop below 8300 for protection. Targets would be the same as those mentioned above. The final option would be to wait for a potential break and hold above 8351.5, allowing for longs to be established above the level with a stop below to protect against reversal. That setup would need to target 8489 to make the trade stack up from a risk-reward perspective.
Even though the composition of the indices is very different, you get the sense Microsoft’s earnings report after the market close on Wall Street on Tuesday will be highly influential on whether the FTSE sees record highs this week.
Should the bullish momentum be sustained, it will come down to the market reaction to the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday and Bank of England policy decision on Thursday. The Fed is likely to leave rates on hold but signal a rate cut is likely in September. The BoE outcome is far less certain with markets deeming the outcome a coin flip.
With other central banks turning dovish, I suspect we may see the MPC do a RBNZ and reprioritise growth over the threat of an inflation reacceleration, delivering the first cut of the monetary easing cycle. If it does cut, the signal on the likely path for rates in the future is likely to be more influential on the decision itself, so keep an eye on Governor Bailey’s press conference.
DS
MKRUSDT - Bullish Continuation - Trend Line SupportBINANCE:MKRUSDT has broken the lower highs in a bullish trend and turning previous resistance into support areas. After retracing, price found support at the long term trend line as well. Expecting the price to continue the bullish trend and continue moving up from the current price!
Elliott Wave DemonstrationDemonstration of Elliott Wave Principles using Bitcoin chart:
Rules:
Wave 2 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked
Wave 3 is not the shortest of Wave 1, 3 and 5 => checked
Wave 4 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked
Guidelines:
Guideline of Alternation: Wave 2 and 4 alternates in form (sharp vs sideways), retracement (shallow vs deep) and duration (long vs short) => checked
Guideline of Wave Equality: Two out of three waves (1,3 and 5) tend to be equal in length and duration, Wave 1 and 5 meeting this guideline => checked
Momentum is highest during end of wave 3, end of Wave 5 normally creates divergence with price => checked
Volume during Wave 3 is normally the highest amongst Wave 1,3 and 5
Relations with Fib ratios:
Wave 2 retraced Wave 1 by 78.6% (deep)
Wave 3 was equal to 261.8% of Wave 1 (longest)
Wave 4 retraced Wave 3 by 38.2% (shallow)
Wave 5 was equal to 100% of Wave 1 (Guideline of Wave equality)
StormX (STMX)On the above 4-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal(not shown). Today is great long opportunity. Why?
1) You know why.
2) RSI and price action resistance breakout.
3) Strong bullish divergence. Multiple oscillators print positive divergence with price action over an extended period.
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: Now, don’t sit on your hands.
Return: Will say elsewhere
Sainsbury £200 to £300 playStock should be trading around £300 / + 150% in 18 months. Not a bad trade for investors looking to play it safe in the face of an 'alleged recession' being in the post. The stock has been trading inside this descending triangle for years and just confirmed support on the bottom.
The monthly chart below confirms the bullish divergence.
NKN - 100x opportunityOn the above 1-day chart price action has corrected 95% since April 2021. A number of reasons now exist to be long, including:
1) The ‘incredible buy’ signal.
2) Broken price action and RSI resistance.
3) Price action is testing past resistance (green line), look at the weekly chart below.
4) Price action has corrected to the golden ratio (see weekly chart below).
5) Nudge nudge wink wink. Don’t know what I mean? Shame.
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? no.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: don’t know.
Return: $8 or 100x
Weekly chart
3-day BTC pair
$SPY July 26, 2024AMEX:SPY July 26, 2024
15 Minutes.
The short below 549 worked out well.
Oscillator divergence around 555 to 565 played
out well in 15 minutes.
Noe considering the move 565 to 546 to 556 we can expect 528 as target being 1.618 level for this move.
However, 535-536 is 200 averages in 3-hour time frame, hence that will be the first target.
And in 15 minutes we had a divergence between 543 and 537. So, a pullback to 547 was done.
That move retraced nearly 50% for the fall 556 to 537.
At the moment we have sell on rise probably until 553 is crossed being 200 averages as of now.
So, for the day due to oscillator divergence in place i will not short.
If there is a retracement to 544 levels depending on parameters i might take a call.
Finally for the rise 493 to 566 AMEX:SPY has retraced 38.2% being 537 levels.
50% retracement would be 529 levels.
Hence for the moment 528-530 is important level on downside.
Health Care ETF May Have Broken OutMany observers have spoken recently about market rotation. They often cite money shifting from megacaps to small caps. But another forgotten sector could be benefiting as well: healthcare.
The first pattern on today’s chart of the SPDR Select Sector Health Care ETF is the June 24 close of $147.09. XLV was trapped below this approximate level since late February, but crossed above it earlier in July. Prices are bouncing after retesting it last week. Has old resistance become new support?
Second, you have a series of higher weekly lows since mid-April. Those may reflect accumulation by long-term investors.
Third, prices are near the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Both SMAs are also near each other, which may create potential for price expansion.
Finally, MACD recently tuned positive.
Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above:
SPDR Select Sector Health Care ETF (XLV)
1-year: +9.81%
5-years: +58.70%
10-year: +142.80%
(As of June 28, 2024)
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Bearish Signals on the S&P 500Despite recently reaching an all-time high of 5,669, the S&P 500's monthly chart is on track to end July with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern, snapping a two-month bullish phase. Follow-through selling on the chart could see the unit trade as far south as support at 4,776.
Meanwhile, on the weekly chart, last week ended in a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern (which focusses on real bodies, not upper and lower shadows), with the market index down -1.4% week to date. Channel resistance-turned-support extended from the high of 4,607, coupled with support coming in at 5,264, calls for attention as the next layer of support.
Therefore, in addition to monthly and weekly charts showing negative divergences from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), chart studies demonstrate the scope to press lower until connecting with weekly support around 5,300.
BurgerCities (BURGER) to $17On the above 6-day chart price action has corrected 97% since May 2021. A number of reasons now exist to take a long position, including:
1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
2) Price action prints support on past resistance confirming the trend reversal.
3) The falling wedge breakout forecasts a 4000% move to $17.
Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6%
Timeframe for long: this week
Return: 4000%