Bitcoin in a correction territory Bitcoin has been retreating from its all time highs. The momentum is negative, which means we can still expect more lows. The good news is that it started to form a positive momentum divergence, which basically means the acceleration towards the downtrend is slowing down, and a possible reversal is in the making. I don’t see a good timing to start a position, I would just wait until the momentum becomes positive and it goes in convergence with the trend. At this time it’s just a wait and see.
M-oscillator
CHESS to print a 2000% move?On the above weekly chart price action has corrected 96% since late 2021. A number of reasons now exist to consider a long position, including:
1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
2) Support and resistance. Price action prints multiple weekly candles on past resistance. Oh yes.
3) Regular bullish divergence. Multiple oscillators print positive divergence with price action as measured over a one month period. This includes money flow.
4) The falling wedge forecasts a 2600% move from the breakout point as measured from the lowest and highest touch-points (blue circles).
Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: Trade
Risk: <=6%
Timeframe for long: Yesterday
Return: 20-25x
S&P500 - Bullish opportunites ahead! - Long in flight Last weeks levels provided to be partly actionable and price has immediately responded (See attached post). Comfortable holding this 50% long position with stop/target untouched. Will be looking for opportunities to buy the other 50% and increase risk as I'm confident in the bullish sentiment after last weeks Feds statement. I hold an underlying belief that the FED does actually have a decent pulse on the economy that drives the stock market - obviously not the "real" economy but an important one no less. I'm personally very bullish 2024 on nearly all assets.
So lets unpack the chart -
Daily chat shows a "comfortable" pullback. One very similar to Nov. 2024. Evidence on the RSI suggests we are positioned for months of bullish room to run ahead. So I'm interested in getting long at least back to comfortable new highs.
2 hour chart shows our first aggressive entry hit and the second entry came within .30% of getting filled. Although I would have loved the second to get filled, It's a non-factor. Thankfully price has strongly verified our bullish identification of these price levels and the overall theory.
Although the stop of the aggressive was close to the conservative entry - it was separated by several key levels and strategically placed. I've got a good idea of where things are going and the opportunities on the way are endless. The rest is risk management
Follow/like for more AMEX:SPY NYSE:ES GETTEX:MES #S&P500 Commentary
Best,
GrayTrader
$SPY May 10, 2024AMEX:SPY May 10, 2024
15 Minutes.
Holding 516, (yesterday low was 516.70) 520 target was achieved.
At the moment i have 2 issues.
Positive is uptrend, above all moving averages, Stochastic black bar on top, did not become red on any pullbacks, Elloitt oscillator green and CCI green.
Negative is Elliott oscillator divergence (price making higher but not oscillator) and too far away from 200 moving averages.
My plan is:
Consider the last rise 518.34 to 520.2, holding 519 I have a target 523 - 524.
And if 518 is broken on downside I will short for a target 517 - 515 which is 38.2 retracement for the rise 508.56 to 520.2 and also 23.6% retracement for the rise 499.55 to 520.2 and 517 is 100 averages. 518 is important as breaking will nullify the HL HH pattern being formed now.
That retrace should allow the 200 averages to catch up at 514-515 levels allowing us to go long for the next uptrend above 524.
Since I trade on moving averages my bias is on reversal to 515-517 levels.
SPX500 approaching overhead resistanceThe SPX500 has moved into an area where there is overhead resistance. If the short-term momentum holds with the stochastic remaining in its upper quartile, the index should overcome the resistance. However, a swift turnaround in the stochastic will see the overhead resistance holding out.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
SPX500 Potential Dip in UptrendThe SPX500 daily chart has a positivity associated with it. However, the hourly chart has pulled back to the point that is tending towards oversold. This may set up a potential "dip in the uptrend" scenario.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) :
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) :
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
$SPY May 8 ,2024AMEX:SPY May 8 ,2024
15 Minutes.
As expected, AMEX:SPY was in sideways.
Forming a HH, HL pattern.
For the last rise from 514.89 to 518.87 it retraced 61.8% yesterday around 516.5 levels.
So, for the day I will buy above 518.6 and sell below 515.6 for a target 513.5 to 514.
I expect a move only above 520 at the moment. Need to cross the 519-520 resistance.
We are having an oscillator divergence; price is making higher while oscillator making lows.
Yesterday gap open was not sustained and the gap was closed.
Honestly, I love PEPE.Hello, friends!
This is ESS team.
Let's check the 1000PEPE chart.
In the 4-TF, PEPE is drawing a RISING wedge.
While PEPE is rising with a high point within the wedge,
There is a divergence with a LOW high point in RSI.
If the PEPE rises in the wedge and makes a high point,
but in the RSI,
the high point falls once again,
There is a possibility that it may drop due to the nature of the rising wedge.
So, Please refer to this.
SPX500 Moves Overbought on Hourly ChartThe hourly chart is showing signs of froth, which may result in a short-term pull back.
However, the daily chart is showing positive momentum.
Therefore a short-term pullback may make the support areas compelling.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
Stratos Markets Limited (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com) :
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com) :
Trading FX/CFDs carries significant risks. FXCM AU (AFSL 309763). Please read the Financial Services Guide, Product Disclosure Statement, Target Market Determination and Terms of Business at www.fxcm.com
Stratos Global LLC (www.fxcm.com):
Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy.
Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Stratos Europe Ltd clients please see: www.fxcm.com
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Stratos Global LLC clients please see: www.fxcm.com
Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
$SPY May 7,2024AMEX:SPY May 7,2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY managed to stay above 510 levels.
Now we have 100 and 200 also near 510 levels.
Now holding 513 levels uptrend intact.
513 is the 61.8 % retracement for the fall 524.61 to 493.86.
510 is important because it is 38.2% retracement for the rise 599.55 to 516.61.
For the day holding 514 levels i have a target 518-519 levels. This is the number from April 11, we saw AMEX:SPY going all the way down 493 levels.
So, I expect some resistance around 519-520 levels.
I am going long around 515-515.6 levels for 519 SL 513 - 512.5.
The retracement to 515 - 515.6 is due to oscillator divergence in 15 minutes.
For two days we had a gap up we need to sort out the divergence.
Bitcoin 21 and 50 weekly moving average remain bullishThe 21 week MA was tagged last Wednesday for CRYPTOCAP:BTC
Watching the 21 week SMA & 50 week SMA can serve as a great medium term risk gauge for Bitcoin
Crosses of these moving averages have been decent 🟢buy &🔴sell signals to date
The 21 week SMA held for the 2015/17 bull run, and it holds today.
All the same I would not be surprised to see price penetrate as deep as $52,000. The 50 weekly SMA is currently at c. €43,000 (think a badass wick)
As long as these moving averages are moving up and to the right, have not been breached by price and have not crossed, the primary bullish trend is intact.
This chart would obviously need to be considered in combination with others however it is a great way to remain level headed with the long term perspective in mind. Once we start losing levels, we can start getting worried. If we get a negative cross, a reduction in spot allocation would be very wise.
Long term timeframes with these smooth moving averages can be brilliant reminders of the primary trend trajectory. Patience my friends.
Lets keep an eye on these levels
P
#Bitcoin
MXN overvalued but not ready for long term sell.Mexican peso looks overvalued but long term sell signals are still missing. Current support is 15.79 and 17.61 as resistance. MA slow is 18.9 and MA fast is 17.8. Only sell signal is stochastic.
Resistance and MA signals might break after Mexican elections on June 2nd.
Bitcoin - Why everyone is probably wrongYou may have noticed published ideas on tradingview.com are now calling for price action to take one direction and that direction is down. Don’t take my word for it, click on BTCUSD pair to the bottom right of this screen and then ‘ideas’ then ‘Recent’. A significant number of analysts are “short” at this time.
The number of short ideas should not be surprising, there is tens of millions of dollars in short interest around the 74-75k area waiting to be liquidated.
Two falling wedge patterns are shown on the above 1-day chart. All too easily these patterns produce false breakouts. How do you verify? Verification is made in a similar way to the recently published “How to void or validate a head and shoulders pattern” (idea linked below). We achieve validation by observing the movements of the oscillators.
1) A cross up of 20 indicates momentum is returning to the market. Look left.
2) Momentum oscillators cycle from above 80 to below 20 the majority of the time between 20 to 30 days. Look left and confirm, don’t take my word for it! At this time 26 days have passed since Stochastic RSI was above 80.
3) Considering points (1) and (2) the falling wedge now has a high probability of confirming the continued uptrend.
4) The wedge target area may be forecast by measuring the flagpole height (black circles). You can observe how accurate the first wedge target was forecast using this process. The forecast for the 2nd wedge is shown, towards the 115k area.
5) The 115k target area was first forecast from the “Is Bitcoin about to rally to 110-120k” idea (linked below) in July 2022 as price action was around $18k using the same method described above.
6) When the target is reached the bull market is over. There will be calls from all quarters informing us how price action is now going to $250k and beyond. Ignore it. The next macro long opportunity will be in 2026.
Is it possible price action continues correcting from the new all time high? Sure.
Is it probable? No
Ww
How to void or validate a head and shoulders pattern
Is Bitcoin about to rally to 110-120k