Potential To Go UpBased off this time frame, where support is being currently held. I based off the chart data believe BTC will rise from this spot, if not it may want to tap the golden ratio 0.618 - 0.65 before regaining its rise. RSI and Stoch RSI is low, oversold, and price is also holding support but i would not be suprised if BTC dropped to the golden ratio before rising again. I would set the trade up now and more buys at the golden ratio with stops at the level shown in red dashed line. The stoch rsi may form a lowering resistance, like the highs will get lower and lower like a triangle crushing it and then it will pop and price jumps as well.
M-oscillator
Bitcoin Price Prediction !!Bitcoin has been trading sideways within a broad range for an extended period, frustrating traders who have been eagerly anticipating a breakout. The current price action suggests that a significant move, either upwards or downwards, is imminent. In this analysis, we will explore two potential bearish scenarios and one bullish breakout scenario, along with key factors influencing price movements.
Key Factors to Consider
Declining Bitcoin Dominance: Bitcoin's dominance over the altcoin market is gradually decreasing, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment. This could lead to a redistribution of funds across the cryptocurrency landscape.
RSI Nearing Critical Zone: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the weekly timeframe is approaching the 70 level, which is considered a bearish zone. A break below 70, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, could signal a significant decline in Bitcoin's price.
Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown
In this scenario, Bitcoin fails to break above the current range and experiences a bearish breakdown.
Rejection at 68,000: Bitcoin could face resistance at the 68,000 level, triggering a drop towards 60,000. This rejection could be due to profit-taking by traders who have accumulated at lower prices.
Liquidity Vacuum at 60,000: The 60,000 zone has witnessed significant outflows, with many traders selling their Bitcoin holdings. This lack of liquidity could amplify the downward move.
Further Decline to 56,700 and 52,000: If the selling pressure persists, Bitcoin could extend its decline to 56,700 and eventually reach 52,000, representing a significant bearish target. These levels have historical support and could act as potential buying zones.
Scenario 2: Temporary Pullback Followed by Rebound
In this alternative scenario, Bitcoin experiences a temporary pullback before resuming its upward trajectory.
Retest and Consolidation at 73,800: Bitcoin could retrace to the 73,800 area, allowing whales (large cryptocurrency holders) to accumulate and prepare for a potential breakout. This consolidation phase could provide support for the price.
Potential Sell-off at 73,800: Once the accumulation phase is complete, a sell-off could ensue, pushing the price back towards 60,000 and 52,000. This sell-off could be triggered by profit-taking from whales or a shift in market sentiment.
Bullish Breakout:
If Bitcoin manages to close a daily candle above 74,400, it could invalidate the bearish scenarios and potentially signal a breakout towards 81,000, marking the start of a new bullish cycle. This breakout could be driven by positive news, increased institutional adoption, or a surge in buying pressure.
Conclusion
The current price action of Bitcoin suggests a higher probability of a bearish move in the near term. The declining Bitcoin dominance, the RSI approaching the critical zone, and the historical support levels at 60,000 and 52,000 all point towards a potential downward trend. However, the possibility of a temporary pullback followed by a rebound or a bullish breakout cannot be entirely ruled out. Traders should exercise caution and carefully monitor market developments before making any trading decisions.
Disclaimer:
This analysis is based on technical indicators and market observations and should not be considered financial advice. Please conduct your own research and make informed trading decisions based on your risk tolerance.
Which one do you like?
AUD/USD Rises on Hotter than Expected AU InflationAUD/USD rises today as inflation data from Australia came in higher than anticipated. March CPI accelerated for the first the first time in months (+3.5% y/y), Q1 rose 1% q/q (from +0.6% prior) and on a yearly basis it came in at 3.6%, which was above forecast.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has refrained from raising rates for the past three meetings and has hinted at peak rates, but has not ruled out further hikes and seems far from cuts. Its US peer on the other hand, has pointed to multiple rate cuts this year, despite adopting a conservative approach.
The hotter than expected inflation report makes an RBA pivot less likely and boosts AUD/USD further. It had already made a strong start to the week, since the contraction in US manufacturing activity offered a sign of weakness for the US economy that could help the Fed lower interest rates. The pair tries to take out the EMA200 that could pause the bearish bias and give it the opportunity to challenge the March highs (06668).
However, the immediate upside appears unfriendly, with multiple roadblocks and the Relative Strength Index points to overbought conditions. Furthermore, the recent hawkish repricing around the Fed’s policy path will likely continue to weigh on the pair, while Australia’s Q1 y/y inflation showed further moderation.
As such, AUD/USD is likely to face renewed pressure that can lead to new 2024 lows (0.6362), although sustained weakness towards and beyond 0.6269 does not look easy.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
$KAVA may skip the 2024 Bull RunBINANCE:KAVAUSDT , 1d
After reaching failing to break it’s 2024 high around the $1.15 area, price created a lower high and broke below the 200SMA forming a lower low. This creates a bearish sentiment for KAVA.
The downward trendline aligns with the stiff resistance created by 200SMA and previous support turned resistance. This is a key level where bears will look for shorting opportunities. Keep an eye on the charts and wait for price reaction to initiate a trade.
The only indicator making a bullish case for KAVA is the bullish MACD crossover but price has to ultimately breakout of the downward trendline and 200SMA and remain above it to bring back the bullish sentiment.
As always, “anything can happen” so let the market unfold and react accordingly. #DYOR
DAX making progress off of Friday lowThe DAX is showing relative strength following Friday's low. The hourly chart may be running out of puff, but that will bring support levels into focus.
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Losses can exceed deposits.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
BTCUSDT1. Each of the last 2 Daily bullish MACD Crosses below the Zero line lead to a GETTEX:25K increase in BTC over the following months.
2. $90K is coming sooner than you think and my guess would be August 2024 given things are now accelerating.
3. $90k will be another local top with my next best guess with the final top at $115k-$120k coming in November 2024 based on CRYPTOCAP:BTC rainbow chart.
TSLA still on the sideline NASDAQ:TSLA showing signs of a reversal on the daily chart. Momentum indicators (middle) suggest strength to the upside although volume (bottom) is weak and for this reason I will remain on the sidelines at this point in time.
PS. The volume indicator is a proprietary oscillator that combines both Chakin Money Flow and On Balance Volume Flow concepts. It is used as a trade filter.
AUDCHF 4H Analysis: Bearish DivergenceAUDCHF's recent trend exhibits bullish behavior with prices achieving higher highs above the R1 monthly pivot, suggesting strength. However, beneath the surface, signs of caution emerge.
The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) displays lower highs, creating a bearish divergence against the price's higher highs. This divergence hints at weakening upward momentum, urging traders to stay vigilant.
Further signaling a potential shift, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) teeters on a bearish crossover . Such a move could forecast a momentum downturn.
Additionally, an untouched monthly pivot at 0.58496 beckons, potentially drawing prices down in a correction.
Compounding the cautious outlook, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreats from overbought territory , aligning with indicators suggesting a cooling phase may be on the horizon.
In essence, while the bullish trend above the R1 pivot indicates strength, emerging signals from CCI, MACD, and RSI suggest a momentum shift, with a pullback to 0.58496 as a conceivable target. Traders should monitor these developments closely and adjust strategies accordingly.
SPX500 looks oversold at current levelsThe daily SPX500 looks oversold at current levels. This may cue the short-term trades to position themselves bullishly as the daily RSI normalizes.
This video is intended for the users of Stratos Markets Limited, Stratos Trading Pty. Limited and Stratos Global LLC, (collectively “FXCM Group”).
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Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 73% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Trading Pty. Limited (www.fxcm.com):
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
Oasis Network (ROSE)On the above 3-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal (not shown). Now is an excellent long trade. Why?
1) You know why.
2) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
3) Strong regular bullish divergence.
4) Price action prints a bullish engulfing candle on the golden ratio.
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: don’t know
Return: 70 cents
$SPY April 21, 2024AMEX:SPY April 21, 2024
15 Minutes.
As expected the downtrend continues.
Two issues.
It is coming to the lower parallel channel in the move.
And oscillator divergence.
I expect a retrace to 498-500 levels.
As I believe once 492-490 levels broke I will have a target of 495 which is 32% retracement for the larger move 409 to 524.
409 I have taken because for the trend change for this uptrend happened from the 348 low.
And in that move for the rise 348 to 459 AMEX:SPY retraced to 409 levels. From that low it went to 524 levels.
Hence I consider the large move from 409 to 524, 480 as a number to watch.
DELL Drops?NYSE:DELL is showing weakness. It may be lagging in its sector. With Chip stocks like AMD, NVDA, and SMCI selling off over the past weeks it comes as no surprise that other related names in the sector are showing the same signs.
DELL is showing Bearish Divergence on a weekly chart. Divergences can show weakness or strength building in the market. When price makes new highs but oscillators like RSI (Relative Strength Index) or MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence) make lower highs, weakness is presenting itself.
This has moved some already but definitely has more room to go given the current market sentiment. Easy ride to $100 maybe lower, choose your contracts carefully. Observe the Volume and Open Interest on the option chain...Hint: Check June's and compare it to the rest.
Join me.
Why I Expect 200 Dollar USOIL Wti CrudeUsing momentum indicators (keltner channel) I've been watching this weekly rally and recent correction. Using the close, and the last wave, oil price could climb to astronomical levels in USD. There is a momentum shift of the correction, and the bull market for oil appears to be underway. At this pace, 200 by june is not far fetched. I expect the Dollar to lose significant strength, and costly measures enforced as an abysmal attempt to stifle inflation. Soon interest payments will become the largest expense if it hasn't already. There is much reason to worry about world markets right about now.
Larger Pattern Breakout
and here is the shift up close on the weekly:
This is not financial advice.
Avalanche (AVAX) to $380Price action has corrected 80% since the sell signal last November as is shown on the above 2-day chart. A number of reasons now exist to be long, including:
1) The ‘incredible buy’ signal.
2) Both price action and RSI resistance have broken out (1-day chart below)
3) Regular bullish divergence (1-day chart below).
4) Both points 2 and 3 are also true for the BTC pair (below).
5) The target is a measured Fibonacci move to the 1.618 as it was with the last cycle.
Is it possible price action falls further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Good luck!
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <6% of portfolio
Duration: 1 - 3 months
Return: 15x
1-day chart
1-day BTC pair