Navigating the TurbulenceA Trader's Perspective: Unpacking the Market's Ebb and Flow
Hey fellow traders, I've been keeping an eye on the charts and I wanted to share my take on the latest price action. It's been quite a ride recently, with the market throwing us some curveballs. We've seen our share of ups and downs, but there's something about the way prices bounced off the low of 0.000196 that's caught my attention. That level held up like a champ, and the rebound was strong enough to challenge the 0.00300 ceiling, but alas, it wasn't meant to be – the rejection was almost as if the market said, "Not today, folks."
Diving into the indicators, the RSI flirted with the overbought zone, which kind of set off a little alarm bell for me. And sure enough, our custom indicator flashed a 'SELL' right when we hit that resistance. Talk about timing, right? Prices are now playing tag with 0.002318, and it feels like we're all holding our breath to see which way the wind blows.
So, what's next? Well, the market's sending us some mixed vibes. The Ichimoku cloud is starting to look a bit stormy above the current price, hinting that we might be in for some rain (or a price drop, in trader speak). But hey, if we can stick the landing above that stubborn 0.00300 line, we might just see a nice sunny rally. On the flip side, a slip could send us sliding down to revisit the lows. My two cents? Keep those stop losses snug and don't get too carried away chasing profits. It's all about playing it smart in these choppy waters.
M-oscillator
Wanchain (WAN) - To the moonOn the above weekly chart price action has corrected 96% since April 2021. A number of reasons now exist to be long. They include:
1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts.
2) Support and resistance. Price action prints a double bottom on past resistance.
3) The bull flag breakout with confirmation. 1000% forecast.
Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6%
Timeframe for long: yesterday
Return: 10x
SOUN Analysis: Emerging Bullish Signals at Key SupportTicker: SOUN (SoundHound AI, Inc.)
Current Price: $4.39
Technical Analysis:
- RSI Observation: The RSI (grey line on custom indicator) is currently at 32.79 on the 4-hour chart, approaching oversold territory. This aligns with the increase in the 1-hour RSI from 25.50 to 34.44, suggesting a building momentum for a potential reversal.
Support and Resistance Zones:
- Support Zone (Purple Rectangle): Currently being tested, this potential support zone ranges from $4.00 to $4.35. Previously, this range acted as a strong resistance area multiple times. While it has not yet been confirmed as a stable support level, its historical significance suggests a possible base for upward movement.
Analysis and Strategy:
Although there hasn't been a confirmed stabilization above the newly formed support zone, the combination of the RSI nearing oversold conditions and the price interacting with a historically significant level presents a bullish scenario. The declining ADX indicates a loss of downward momentum, further hinting at a possible weakening of the bearish trend.
Traders should closely monitor this zone for signs of bullish reversal. Considering entering positions if we see signs of support solidification within this range, with potential upward moves possibly reaching new resistance levels or retracing past higher price points.
Conclusion:
While SOUN is yet to establish firm stability above the support zone, the technical indicators suggest a weakening bearish trend and potential for bullish reversal. Investors and traders should watch for positive changes in price action around the current levels to potentially capitalize on early signs of a trend reversal.
Badger DAO (BADGER)On the above 4-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal in August 2021 (not shown). Now is a good opportunity to go long. Why?
1) A strong buy signal prints. (not shown).
2) Price action resistance breakout.
3) Strong positive divergence between price action and multiple oscillators. This divergence occurs over a 80 day period.
Is it possible price action could fall further? Sure.
Is it probable? No.
Ww
Type: trade
Risk: <=6% of portfolio
Timeframe: Don’t know.
Return: Don’t know.
PS: Does the above chart look familiar? ;-) (hint nudge wink etc - how thick do you want it?)
AMD Technical Analysis: Bullish Reversal Potential with RSI Div.Ticker: AMD (Advanced Micro Devices)
Current Price: $163.26
Technical Analysis:
- RSI Observation: The RSI (grey line on custom indicator) is currently at 35.08, indicating oversold conditions. Notably, there is a bullish RSI divergence (yellow lines on chart) with the price, suggesting a potential reversal to the upside.
Support and Resistance Zones:
- Support Zone (Purple Rectangle): Positioned around $160 to $162, this area historically attracts buying interest and may act as a catalyst for a bullish reversal.
- Resistance Zone (Purple Rectangle): Located around $182 to $185, this level could be the target for a potential upward move if a bullish reversal occurs.
Analysis and Strategy:
The bullish RSI divergence, combined with the presence of a support zone, indicates a possible bullish reversal in AMD's price. Traders may consider monitoring price action for confirmation of a bounce off the support zone and targeting the resistance zone for potential profit-taking.
Conclusion:
AMD's technical analysis suggests potential for a bullish reversal, with the RSI divergence adding weight to the bullish scenario. Traders should watch for confirmation signals and plan their strategies accordingly.
TSM Analysis: Double Top and Support Zones Signal Bearish TrendTicker: TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company)
Current Price: $142.57
Technical Analysis: Potential Short-Term Bearish Signal
Price Action Observation: TSM is currently trading at $142.57, with a possible double top formation identified around $147.40 (purple dotted line). This formation often signifies a potential reversal in the ongoing uptrend.
Support Levels: A crucial support zone is marked by the purple rectangle between $133.50 to $136. These levels historically indicate increased buying interest and could potentially act as a floor for the price.
Indicators Analysis:
- RSI (Grey Line): The RSI, represented by the grey line on a custom indicator, has been declining, signaling diminishing bullish momentum.
- ADX (White Line): The ADX, depicted as the white line on the custom indicator, has also been decreasing, suggesting a weakening trend strength.
Potential Strategy:
Considering the technical analysis indicating a short-term bearish outlook and the identified support levels, traders may watch for price movements around the support zone of $133.50 to $136 for potential buying opportunities or confirmation of the bearish trend continuation.
Conclusion:
Based on the analysis of the double top pattern (purple dotted line), support levels (purple rectangle), RSI, and ADX, there's a possibility of a short-term bearish direction for TSM. Traders should closely monitor these levels and indicators for potential trading signals.
USDJPY Analysis: Bullish Flag Pattern PotentialTrade Strategy: Bullish Flag Pattern
Key Levels:
- Shorting Opportunity: 153.26
- Buying Opportunity: 152.84
Analysis:
- Importance: Identifies a potential Bullish Flag Pattern setup
- Technical Analysis: Signals a possible continuation of the bullish trend
- Fundamental Analysis: Supports the bullish bias for USDJPY
Trade Plan:
- Shorting Opportunity: Consider shorting at 153.26 with candlestick pattern confirmation and RSI Divergence
- Buying Opportunity: Look for buy entries near 152.84, targeting beyond the resistance line at 153.26
Insights:
The USDJPY chart shows signs of a Bullish Flag Pattern formation, indicating a potential bullish continuation. Traders can watch for opportunities to short or buy based on the identified key levels.
📈📉 Keep an eye on USDJPY for trading opportunities based on the Bullish Flag Pattern setup!
DDOG shows bullish momentum 3 weeks before earnings LONGDDOG on a 120 minute chart is breaking above narrow Bollinger Bands as they begin to
release the squeeze. The relative volailitiy indicator shows red to green and increasing
volatility. The price volume indicators show the bullish trend while the TTM squeeze
just signaled green. I will tkae a long trade here focused on the price action leading to the
earnings report due May 3rd.
Don't Get Duped by the RSIWhy This Popular Indicator Can Lead You Astray
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a common technical analysis tool used by traders to gauge whether an asset is overbought (priced too high) or oversold (priced too low). It analyzes price movements over a specific period (often 14 days) and displays a score between 0 and 100. Generally, an RSI above 70 suggests an overbought condition, while an RSI below 30 suggests an oversold condition.
While the RSI seems straightforward, there's a crucial catch: it's a lagging indicator. This means it reacts to past price movements rather than predicting future ones. This inherent lag can sometimes mislead traders, particularly when markets are volatile or trending strongly.
Here's how the RSI's lagging nature can be deceptive:
Overbought Traps: The RSI might reach overbought territory (above 70) during a strong uptrend. However, instead of signaling an imminent reversal, the price could keep climbing, potentially reaching new highs. This can lure traders into believing a correction is coming (based on the high RSI) only to miss out on further gains.
Oversold Deceptions: Conversely, the RSI might dip into oversold territory (below 30) during a downtrend. This could be interpreted as a buying opportunity, anticipating a bounce back. But, in a strong downtrend, the price may continue to fall, and the RSI might stay oversold for extended periods.
How to Use the RSI More Effectively:
Despite its limitations, the RSI can still be a valuable tool when used strategically:
Confirmation Tool: Combine the RSI with other technical indicators or chart patterns for confirmation. For example, an RSI divergence (where the RSI moves in the opposite direction of the price) might strengthen a potential reversal signal.
Identify Trending Markets: The RSI can help identify the strength of a trend. During strong uptrends, the RSI may frequently reach overbought levels without signaling an immediate reversal. Conversely, in downtrends, the RSI may stay oversold for extended periods.
Identify Overbought/Oversold Conditions: While not a precise timing tool, the RSI can indicate when an asset might be nearing extreme price levels, potentially due for a correction. However, be cautious about chasing these signals blindly.
Beyond the RSI:
Remember, the RSI is just one piece of the puzzle. Always consider other factors like market sentiment, news events, and overall price trends when making trading decisions.
Here are some additional tips:
Don't rely solely on technical indicators. Develop a comprehensive trading strategy that considers both technical and fundamental analysis.
Backtest your strategies. Test your trading ideas using historical data to see how they would have performed in different market conditions.
Start small and manage your risk. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose, especially when using potentially deceptive indicators.
By understanding the limitations of the RSI and using it strategically, you can improve your technical analysis skills and make more informed trading decisions.
Watching for IWM to bounce off support
IWM is currently in a strong accumulation area based on the volume profile delta. The indexes were a bit oversold after yesterday's CPI report and FOMC minutes, leading to a bounce in the afternoon. I am skeptical as to whether today's PPI report and fed speakers will have the same effect so I closed my puts. Here is my reasoning:
VIX keeps rejecting above $16.25. If it does not move up sharply at market open, I expect it to reject again and move back down towards $13.00.
The 10y bonds chart looks like yields have topped out for the week after hitting the R3 fib pivot point. I see it retracing down the channel until next week.
Same situation with the Dollar.
I expect a small rally into the weekend or early next week. Timing will depend on the reaction to today's PPI report. I'd like to see a dip in the morning so I can minimize risk in case there is not enough momentum to get to $206. I expect some choppiness there so we can either continue moving up next week or head for new lows.
Also thinking this looks like another bullish wedge on NYSE..
STAA medical suppy small cap catching up from Covid LONGSTAA is a medical company specialized in implantable lenses. Many of those needing
lens replacements for cataracts put things off during the COVID era and eye surgeons are now
catching up on backed up patient loads. Medical insurance companies are burdened with
patients catching up from the covid delays for elective surgeries. The surgeons and medical
supply companies on the other hand are experiencing growth.
TSLA breaks through downward resistance trendTSLA has recently broken through downward resistance trend line turning it into a support line.
TSLA has been on a long downward trend and recently broke through
stock has held breakout past few periods giving confidence in new trend
RSI still remains below 50 though which is bearish sign.
Should be cause for some optimism of a turn around. Keep in mind though TSLA products are not cheap and sensitive to economic swings. Economy is on shaky grounds so buying this low should be done with a long term horizon.
Bitcoin RSI Hints at Short-Term Bounce, But Long-Term Top Looms?The ever-volatile world of Bitcoin is once again presenting a perplexing puzzle. While the price seems to be taking a breather, technical indicators are flashing conflicting signals, leaving investors scratching their heads. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a mainstay in technical analysis, sits at the heart of this debate.
RSI: A Gauge of Momentum
The RSI measures the momentum of a price movement by comparing the average gain of closing prices to the average loss of closing prices over a specific period. It's typically displayed on a scale of 0 to 100, with higher values indicating stronger upward momentum and lower values signifying stronger downward momentum.
Traditionally, an RSI reading above 70 is considered "overbought," suggesting the asset might be due for a correction. Conversely, readings below 30 are considered "oversold," potentially indicating a buying opportunity.
Current RSI Reading: A Neutral Zone
As of April 10, 2024, Bitcoin's daily RSI hovers around 53, according to data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView. This positions it comfortably within the neutral zone, neither screaming "buy" nor "sell."
Short-Term Bounce or Long-Term Top?
This seemingly neutral RSI reading is being interpreted in two distinct ways by analysts, creating a fascinating dichotomy:
• Short-Term Bounce: Analysts like Jelle, a prominent crypto trader, believe a retest of the 50 mark on the RSI often precedes a price bounce in a strong uptrend. With Bitcoin currently hovering around 50, this could signal an imminent short-term rise in price. This interpretation finds support in historical data, where similar RSI behavior has been followed by price corrections and subsequent rebounds.
• Long-Term Top: However, another factor, the Value Days Destroyed multiple, throws a curveball. This indicator, which measures the intensity of price movements, is hinting at a possible long-term peak for Bitcoin. In simpler terms, it suggests the current bull run might be nearing its end, and the RSI's current reading could be a sign of exhaustion in the uptrend.
The Value Days Destroyed Conundrum:
The Value Days Destroyed multiple considers both the magnitude and duration of price movements. A high value suggests an intense bull run, potentially unsustainable in the long term. While the specific calculations of this indicator are beyond the scope of this article, its current reading for Bitcoin is raising concerns about a potential long-term price correction.
Beyond the RSI: Unveiling Other Clues
While the RSI is a valuable tool, it shouldn't be the sole factor guiding investment decisions. Here's what investors should consider alongside the RSI:
• Confirmation of Hidden Bullish Divergence: Trader Alan Tardigrade identified a promising sign on the 4-hour RSI charts - a hidden bullish divergence. This pattern suggests a potential disconnect between price and momentum, where the price makes a lower low but the RSI doesn't, indicating underlying buying pressure. If confirmed, this divergence could bolster the short-term bounce theory.
• Moving Averages: Moving averages smooth out price fluctuations, revealing the underlying trend. Investors should analyze key moving averages (like the 50-day and 200-day) to understand the overall direction and potential support/resistance levels.
• Trading Volume: Trading volume often rises alongside strong price movements, both up and down. Analyzing volume alongside price action can help confirm the strength of a trend.
• Macroeconomic Factors: Global economic conditions, interest rate policies, and major news events can significantly impact the cryptocurrency market. Staying informed about these external factors is crucial.
The Final Word: Navigating Uncertainty
The cryptocurrency market is inherently volatile, and technical analysis should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. Diversification, risk management, and a long-term perspective are essential for navigating this dynamic landscape.
Beyond the Technicalities: A Look at Market Sentiment
The current market sentiment surrounding Bitcoin also plays a crucial role. Are major institutions still entering the space, or is there a sense of FOMO (fear of missing out) subsiding? Are regulatory hurdles creating uncertainty? Gauging the overall mood of the market can provide valuable context for interpreting technical indicators.
Conclusion: A Balancing Act
While the RSI reading suggests a potential short-term bounce for Bitcoin, the Value Days Destroyed multiple raises concerns about a long-term top. Investors should carefully consider other technical indicators, trading volume, and broader market sentiment before making any investment decisions. Remember, the cryptocurrency market thrives on volatility, and navigating its complexities requires a measured and informed approach.
Big Levels on Big TechBig technology stocks have moved sideways for the last month. Now there could be some important levels for names like Nvidia as investors digest today’s higher-than-expected inflation report.
The main pattern on today’s chart is the March 11 low of $841.66. This level has provided support since the chip giant’s peak on March 8. (It’s also a weekly low.) Closing below it could make traders think about a test of the post-earnings gap on February 22.
MACD has also been falling since mid-March. That could suggest direction has been turning more negative.
At least two other AI-themed stocks may face similar predicaments.
First, NASDAQ:SMCI Super Micro Computer formed a tight range above its March 20 low and a falling trendline. Traders may next eye the February 20 low of $692.50 as potential support.
Second, NASDAQ:AMD Advanced Micro Devices has pushed toward its low from February 21. Traders may next eye around $149, the high in late December and early January before the stock broke out to new record territory.
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Why I think GBPUSD Will Sell...Technical Analysis Hey Rich Friends,
Happy 2nd Quarter! I wanted to share my technical analysis of GBPUSD on the H4 timeframe. Make sure that you check the indicators on your chart and check the news. Here is what I am looking at:
- The candles have already rejected the previous supply zone
- It looks like a bearish harami candle pattern is forming
- The stochastic looks like it is about to cross down below 80
Signals to wait for:
- Wait for the purple EMA to cross back above the blue EMA
- Wait for orange and blue lines of the stochastic to cross below 80
I would recommend a sell limit in the resistance/supply zone or a sell stop anywhere below the current market.
Great luck in your trades this week and let me know your thoughts on this idea.
Peace and Profits,
Cha
DAX daily showing signs of churn, but shorter-term supportedThe DAX daily chart is showing signs of consolidation, but the short-term market participants are constructive.
IF the short-term momentum holds, there will be something to work with.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Kiwi Upbeat after the RBNZ Hold but US CPI LoomsNZD/USD reacted positively as the RBNZ kept rates again at 5.5%, appeared a little more worried about inflation than the last time and said it is necessary to maintain a restrictive stance to reduce price pressures. The move above the EMA200 gives it the opportunity to take out the 38.2% Fibonacci, but does not yet inspire confidence for further gains that would challenge 0.6217.
RBNZ appears further form a pivot than its US counterpart, but the Fed has turned cautious around lowering rates and the three cuts scenario is being questioned. The RSI points to overbought conditions that can contain the upside and a rejection of the 38.2% Fibo would keep new 2024 lows in play (0.5938).
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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 66% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
Stratos Europe Ltd (trading as “FXCM” or “FXCM EU”), previously FXCM EU Ltd (www.fxcm.com):
CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 70% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this video are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed via FXCM`s website:
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Double EMA Strategy...For Beginners Hey Rich Friends,
Happy Monday! It's a new week which means many new opportunities to get into the market...but it doesn't mean that you have to take all of them.
Make sure you focus on finding the best setups by sticking to your plan and following your confirmation checklist. The best out of 25 will give you a good idea of your win/loss ratio.
If you are still struggling to find a SIMPLE strategy that works for you, try using this Double EMA strategy that I apply to my trades. Let me know what you think and if it works for you!
Today we will cover:
1. How to use EMAs on Tradingview
2. Double EMA Strategy
3. Feel confident taking a buy or sell in Forex trades
4. Trade with the trend
Peace and Profits,
Cha
EU BEARISH MOVE EXPLAINED +60 PIPSHey Rich Friends,
I forgot to post the initial idea for this EU Bearish move but I was happy to see the market went in my favor!
I analyzed the market around 10:00 AM EST on July 24, 2003, to get my confirmations and set a sell limit at 1.10850. When I am looking for a sale, here are the things I look for with my strategy:
1. Candles are forming below one or both EMAs (50 and 200)
2. The MOM is facing down and/or below 0
3. STOCH is facing down and/or below 50 and/or the orange line is above the blue line.
All of these conditions were met so I decided to take the trade.
I hope this was helpful.
NZDUSD BULLISH- Bullish engulfing candle crossed above the 200 EMA. Bullish conditions met.
- MOM facing up and above 0. Bullish conditions met.
- STOCH facing up and the blue line is above the orange line. Bullish conditions met
Buy At Market Execution Or Buy Limit At 0.62100 Or Lower
SL: 0.61700 OR LOWER (40 pips or more)
TP 1: 0.62500 (40 pips) 1:1RR
TP 2: 0.62700 (60 pips) 1:1.5RR
TP 3: 0.62900 (80 pips) 1:2RR
Result:
Pending
Please Do Your Own Analysis And Use Proper Risk Management. Only Take This Trade If It Makes Sense To You. For Market Execution, Adjust Your Stop Loss Based On Your Actual Entry Point.
NZDUSD BULLISH MOVE EXPLAINED +60 PIPSNZDUSD took a while to make this move but it finally happened!
- Structure was broken on the upside confirming the Bullish trend.
- Green candles crossed above both EMAs (50 and 200). Bullish conditions met.
- MOM facing up and above the 0 line. Bullish conditions met.
- STOCH facing up and above 50. Bullish conditions met.
TP 1 and TP 2 HIT. TP 3 PENDING