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M-oscillator

Long Kiwi setup looking for a revival in risk appetiteThe New Zealand dollar is a binary bet on how investor risk appetite evolves this week. Having plunged over the past fortnight before bouncing off horizontal support, a setup is in place to look for a reversal. We just need risk assets to oblige. To reinforce how influential risk assets have been on the Kiwi, its rolling daily correlation with Nasdaq futures sits at 0.92 over the past month. With copper futures it’s an even stronger 0.95 and 0.89 with USD/JPY. It’s deeply negative with the VIX at -0.88, indicating that when volatility spikes, Kiwi usually tumbles. That suggests Microsoft’s earnings report and speculation before the Fed are likely to heavily influence NZD/USD over the next 24 hours. NZD/USD screens as decent long setup from a risk-reward perspective, oversold yet still able to bounce off .59593 at the first time of testing, an important level that has provided support in the past. While no guarantee this time will be the same, when RSI has sat at these kinds of levels over reccent years, it has often occurred around a market bottom. Those taking on the long trade could buy above .58593 with a stop below for protection. Some selling may be encountered at .5900 but there isn’t any real visible resistance levels evident until we get back towards .5985 of .60491. DS
Long
by FOREXcom
Is Solana at risk of a price reversal? What historic trends say:Solana (SOL), the world’s fourth-largest cryptocurrency, gained massive attention as it broke out of the crucial resistance level of $187. Following SOL’s crucial breakout, there is a high chance that it could rise to the next resistance, which is near $204. However, there is also a concern among the new investors about a potential price reversal from this upcoming resistance. According to the historical data and price action, whenever SOL has reached the $204 level, it has consistently experienced a notable price reversal. Since March 2024, SOL has reached this level twice and experienced a significant price reversal each time, which is the reason for the concern among new investors. As of writing, SOL is trading near $184 and has experienced a 4.5% upside move in the last 24 hours. Despite an impressive price surge, trading volume has dropped by 18% over the same period. This decline in trading volume might indicate that investors and traders are conscious of the resistance level due to the historical price reversal. According to technical analysis, SOL recently broke out of the crucial resistance level of $187, and was heading toward the next resistance level of $204. Following this breakout, there is a high possibility that SOL could reach the $204 level in the coming days. Relative Strength Index (RSI) is above 50, signaling trend steadiness. Also, major liquidation levels emerged near the $180 and $203 levels. This creates a potentially bullish outlook for SOL.
by paul_endeo
Why I Think GBPUSD Will Buy This Week...Technical AnalysisHey Rich Friends, I hope all is well! This is only a technical analysis of GBPUSD, so make sure you cross-reference your charts and check the news. I think this pair will continue to buy and here is what I am looking at: - The 3 EMA (blue/smaller) has crossed over the 10 EMA (purple/larger). This is a bullish confirmation for me. - The stochastic is facing up, the fast line (blue) is above the slow line (orange) and both lines are above. These are all bullish confirmations for me - The candles have broken and closed above the top trend line. This is a bullish confirmation for me. Additional confirmations you can wait for: - Price to close above 1.28900 My TPs will be set at previous highs and my SL will be at a previous low. Happy Trading and good luck if you decide to take this trade! Peace and Profits, Cha
Long
by MoneyMantraCha
FTSE 100 futures reverse hard to stage bullish breakoutFrom dire to delightful in the space of two sessions – that’s was the rollercoaster ride UK FTSE 100 bulls had to endure late last week with futures taking out stops layered below 8152 before reversing hard on Friday, taking out the 50-day moving average and downtrend resistance dating back to the record highs set in May. Closing at the highest level since June 24, it looks like the move may extend further this week with MACD and RSI triggering bullish signals, hinting at a potential retest of the former highs. Those looking for this outcome have a variety of setups to choose from depending on how the price action evolves on Monday. Ideally, a retest and hold above the 50-day moving average would be the preferred setup, allowing for a stop to be placed below the level for protection. Potential upside targets include 8351.5 and record high of 8489. For those itching to buy the breakout immediately, you could place a stop below 8300 for protection. Targets would be the same as those mentioned above. The final option would be to wait for a potential break and hold above 8351.5, allowing for longs to be established above the level with a stop below to protect against reversal. That setup would need to target 8489 to make the trade stack up from a risk-reward perspective. Even though the composition of the indices is very different, you get the sense Microsoft’s earnings report after the market close on Wall Street on Tuesday will be highly influential on whether the FTSE sees record highs this week. Should the bullish momentum be sustained, it will come down to the market reaction to the Fed interest rate decision on Wednesday and Bank of England policy decision on Thursday. The Fed is likely to leave rates on hold but signal a rate cut is likely in September. The BoE outcome is far less certain with markets deeming the outcome a coin flip. With other central banks turning dovish, I suspect we may see the MPC do a RBNZ and reprioritise growth over the threat of an inflation reacceleration, delivering the first cut of the monetary easing cycle. If it does cut, the signal on the likely path for rates in the future is likely to be more influential on the decision itself, so keep an eye on Governor Bailey’s press conference. DS
ICEEUR:Z1!Long
by FOREXcom
1
Elliott Wave DemonstrationDemonstration of Elliott Wave Principles using Bitcoin chart: Rules: Wave 2 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked Wave 3 is not the shortest of Wave 1, 3 and 5 => checked Wave 4 never goes below end of Wave 1 => checked Guidelines: Guideline of Alternation: Wave 2 and 4 alternates in form (sharp vs sideways), retracement (shallow vs deep) and duration (long vs short) => checked Guideline of Wave Equality: Two out of three waves (1,3 and 5) tend to be equal in length and duration, Wave 1 and 5 meeting this guideline => checked Momentum is highest during end of wave 3, end of Wave 5 normally creates divergence with price => checked Volume during Wave 3 is normally the highest amongst Wave 1,3 and 5 Relations with Fib ratios: Wave 2 retraced Wave 1 by 78.6% (deep) Wave 3 was equal to 261.8% of Wave 1 (longest) Wave 4 retraced Wave 3 by 38.2% (shallow) Wave 5 was equal to 100% of Wave 1 (Guideline of Wave equality)
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by MalayKJ
StormX (STMX)On the above 4-day chart price action has corrected over 90% since the sell signal(not shown). Today is great long opportunity. Why? 1) You know why. 2) RSI and price action resistance breakout. 3) Strong bullish divergence. Multiple oscillators print positive divergence with price action over an extended period. Is it possible price action falls further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: <=6% of portfolio Timeframe: Now, don’t sit on your hands. Return: Will say elsewhere
SLong
by without_worries
15
NKN - 100x opportunityOn the above 1-day chart price action has corrected 95% since April 2021. A number of reasons now exist to be long, including: 1) The ‘incredible buy’ signal. 2) Broken price action and RSI resistance. 3) Price action is testing past resistance (green line), look at the weekly chart below. 4) Price action has corrected to the golden ratio (see weekly chart below). 5) Nudge nudge wink wink. Don’t know what I mean? Shame. Is it possible price action falls further? Sure. Is it probable? no. Ww Type: trade Risk: <=6% of portfolio Timeframe: don’t know. Return: $8 or 100x Weekly chart 3-day BTC pair
Long
by without_worries
73
$SPY July 26, 2024AMEX:SPY July 26, 2024 15 Minutes. The short below 549 worked out well. Oscillator divergence around 555 to 565 played out well in 15 minutes. Noe considering the move 565 to 546 to 556 we can expect 528 as target being 1.618 level for this move. However, 535-536 is 200 averages in 3-hour time frame, hence that will be the first target. And in 15 minutes we had a divergence between 543 and 537. So, a pullback to 547 was done. That move retraced nearly 50% for the fall 556 to 537. At the moment we have sell on rise probably until 553 is crossed being 200 averages as of now. So, for the day due to oscillator divergence in place i will not short. If there is a retracement to 544 levels depending on parameters i might take a call. Finally for the rise 493 to 566 AMEX:SPY has retraced 38.2% being 537 levels. 50% retracement would be 529 levels. Hence for the moment 528-530 is important level on downside.
AMEX:SPY
by RiderTrader
Health Care ETF May Have Broken OutMany observers have spoken recently about market rotation. They often cite money shifting from megacaps to small caps. But another forgotten sector could be benefiting as well: healthcare. The first pattern on today’s chart of the SPDR Select Sector Health Care ETF is the June 24 close of $147.09. XLV was trapped below this approximate level since late February, but crossed above it earlier in July. Prices are bouncing after retesting it last week. Has old resistance become new support? Second, you have a series of higher weekly lows since mid-April. Those may reflect accumulation by long-term investors. Third, prices are near the 50- and 100-day simple moving averages (SMAs). Both SMAs are also near each other, which may create potential for price expansion. Finally, MACD recently tuned positive. Standardized Performances for the ETF mentioned above: SPDR Select Sector Health Care ETF (XLV) 1-year: +9.81% 5-years: +58.70% 10-year: +142.80% (As of June 28, 2024) Performance data shown reflects past performance and is no guarantee of future performance. The information provided is not meant to predict or project the performance of a specific investment or investment strategy and current performance may be lower or higher than the performance data shown. Accordingly, this information should not be relied upon when making an investment decision. TradeStation has, for decades, advanced the trading industry, providing access to stocks, options and futures. See our Overview for more. Past performance, whether actual or indicated by historical tests of strategies, is no guarantee of future performance or success. There is a possibility that you may sustain a loss equal to or greater than your entire investment regardless of which asset class you trade (equities, options or futures); therefore, you should not invest or risk money that you cannot afford to lose. Online trading is not suitable for all investors. View the document titled Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options at www.TradeStation.com . Before trading any asset class, customers must read the relevant risk disclosure statements on www.TradeStation.com . System access and trade placement and execution may be delayed or fail due to market volatility and volume, quote delays, system and software errors, Internet traffic, outages and other factors. Securities and futures trading is offered to self-directed customers by TradeStation Securities, Inc., a broker-dealer registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission and a futures commission merchant licensed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission). TradeStation Securities is a member of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, the National Futures Association, and a number of exchanges. TradeStation Securities, Inc. and TradeStation Technologies, Inc. are each wholly owned subsidiaries of TradeStation Group, Inc., both operating, and providing products and services, under the TradeStation brand and trademark. When applying for, or purchasing, accounts, subscriptions, products and services, it is important that you know which company you will be dealing with. Visit www.TradeStation.com for further important information explaining what this means. Exchange Traded Funds ("ETFs") are subject to management fees and other expenses. Before making investment decisions, investors should carefully read information found in the prospectus or summary prospectus, if available, including investment objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. Click here to find the prospectus.
AMEX:XLV
by TradeStation
Bearish Signals on the S&P 500Despite recently reaching an all-time high of 5,669, the S&P 500's monthly chart is on track to end July with a bearish shooting star candlestick pattern, snapping a two-month bullish phase. Follow-through selling on the chart could see the unit trade as far south as support at 4,776. Meanwhile, on the weekly chart, last week ended in a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern (which focusses on real bodies, not upper and lower shadows), with the market index down -1.4% week to date. Channel resistance-turned-support extended from the high of 4,607, coupled with support coming in at 5,264, calls for attention as the next layer of support. Therefore, in addition to monthly and weekly charts showing negative divergences from the Relative Strength Index (RSI), chart studies demonstrate the scope to press lower until connecting with weekly support around 5,300.
SP:SPXShort
by FPMarkets
BurgerCities (BURGER) to $17On the above 6-day chart price action has corrected 97% since May 2021. A number of reasons now exist to take a long position, including: 1) Price action and RSI resistance breakouts. 2) Price action prints support on past resistance confirming the trend reversal. 3) The falling wedge breakout forecasts a 4000% move to $17. Is it possible price action corrects further? Sure. Is it probable? No. Ww Type: trade Risk: <=6% Timeframe for long: this week Return: 4000%
Long
by without_worries
26
FORD - ICE predominates EV falters LONGFord has scaled back its EV ambitions in consideration of the marketplace while TSLA drops its price in the Eurozone and falls into less than first place in the China EV market. Ford's F-150 truck continues to dominate GM and the others in North America. On the 4H chart, first a price uptrend and then retrace to the 0.5 Fib level and a reverse into a new trend up. A pair of EMAs shows an impending golden cross also suggested by the zero lag MACD. The two RSI lines ( 60 minutes and 480 minutes fast and slow) are rising and about to cross the 50 level. I see this as a long entry for Ford. Targets based on major pivots in 2023 are 13 and 14.25
NYSE:FLong
by AwesomeAvani
Possible long on CADJPY next weekWhen a currency breaks outside the channel and then changes color, it signals a reversal in strength/trend. By waiting for this to happen to two currencies during the same candle, an entry signal is created (CAD=red, JPY=white) The current trend has not ended, however. Based on previous data, it looks like it will take 3-4 more candles for the CAD and JPY lines to change color outside the channel, signaling the CADJPY pair to reverse into a bullish direction. I am projecting 3 days of forward ATR against the previous candle's bodys low (I prefer measuring this rather than the high/low wicks), to get a price range of 111.738 to 116.446 over the next week. Based on today's current price, it puts the lower end to 113.189, which is also about 1x ATR from yesterday's open, so it "lines up" in that sense. We'll probably have confirmation to go long around Wednesday of next week! Good luck on your trades Note: Here is the indicator in action for the last 4 months. Over the last 4 months, it would have been accurate 5 out of 6 times (83%), with small wins each time (and possibly one big win), depending on your trade entry and how you manage your trades:
Long
by KyleBaran
Upcoming short/reversal on GBPNZD in the next few daysMy FICO indicator works by making a DXY-like index for each currency, then plotting their rate of change on an oscillator to show relative strength/weakness. When two currencies are on opposite ends and change directions, it is an entry signal. In this case, GBP (dull green, top) and NZD (lime green, bottom) are on opposite sides of the oscillator channel. The directional flip has not happened yet, but it is inevitable. We must wait for this to confirm first, since the current trend still has momentum. I estimate it could take about 3 days for the trend to finish, and over that time, price could visit anywhere in the 2.12556 to 2.16300 level. Once we enter, we'll target about 1080 pips short and let the trend ride in our favor. This can change depending on what the price actually does in the next week and is also based on current values.
Short
by KyleBaran
3
Possible short on EURCHF for next weekI have been working on my own indicator called FICO (FX Index Curve Oscillator). It seems to perform well in backtesting and as a way to engage in forward testing, I am posting this idea. Basically it works by making our own DXY-like index for each currency, then plotting its rate of change. By looking at relative strength and weakness with each one, we can find pairs and direction to trade. Using this indicator, it shows that the EUR is about to flip negative, and the CHF is about to flip positive. Therefore, we want to short EURCHF to be on the right side of both of these tickers. But we're not there quite yet. We need another candle or two for the confirmation to happen (eg we might get another green candle with a large wick) so we don't want to enter yet and risk getting stopped out. If the trade works out exactly as planned (eg entry at 0.97719 and hits 4x ATR level), then this trade would be worth 180 pips. Let's find out next week!
Short
by KyleBaran
4
AUD/JPY the most oversold since the pandemic plungeYou don’t see unwinds of Japanese yen carry trades like we’re seeing right now outside of crisis periods. It doesn’t feel like we’re in a crisis, making me wonder just how long the current bearish move will last? AUD/JPY has been among largest casualties, hammered lower by a combination of China pessimism, large declines on Wall Street and narrowing yield differentials between the United States and Japan. I discussed a short setup in AUD/JPY yesterday, but such has the speed of the unwind been it’s nearly reached the target after falling more than 150 points, extending the decline from the recent peak to over eight big figures. While I think there’s more downside to come, it’s rare for such a liquid FX pair to so sharply in one direction for a sustained period. Even during my time on the desk during the height of the GFC, we saw massive countertrend rallies during what ended up being the largest carry trade unwind on record. As such, when the market provides the signal, I’m positioning for a bounce with the help of long-running uptrend support which is located just 40 pips below where AUD/JPY currently trades. Should it hold, or if the market is unwilling to test it in early Asian trade, buying with a tight stop around 100.60 is one setup, allowing traders to target a push back towards horizontal support at 102.64. To put in context just how oversold AUD/JPY is, on RSI (14), you have to go back to the initial panic at the start of the pandemic to find a similar reading. DS
Long
by FOREXcom