$SPY October 3, 2024AMEX:SPY October 3, 2024
15 Minutes.
As expected, AMEX:SPY was in sideways sort out the two long bars of 1st October.
For the fall 574.38 to 565.27 AMEX:SPY had retraced 61.88 around 570 levels.
For the rise 565.27 to 569.9 AMEX:SPY had again retraced 61.8% of that move to 567 levels.
Now AMEX:SPY made a low at 565.27 and we can see oscillator divergence.
Hence this number is important to hold now.
If we draw an extension for the move 567.27 to 569.9 to 567.58, we can see 570 - 572 as initial target.
At the moment AMEX:SPY below 100 and 200 averages in 15 minutes.
Hence a long only above 571 with the close of bar near the top.
On downside I expect strong support around 562 563 levels being 200 averages in 60 Minutes time frame.
So, we are stuck between 563 to 571 today most probably for a buy above or sell below trade.
I expect to have a trade tomorrow, Friday.
M-oscillator
The 3 Steps To Risk Managment Using The Rocket Booster Strategy.The rocket booster strategy is something
i have been
practising since I started trade
journals here
on Tradingview.
It took me about about 48 hours and 48 days
of studying to master this
strategy in my brain it's very simple
but do not underestimate its power
I want to show you risk management.
On this chart is the rocket booster strategy
But there is a difference.
On the chart, I have shown you a buy-limit order
and a take-profit order.
Here are the 3 steps to risk management
and profit-taking
using the rocket booster strategy for this
stock NASDAQ:AMZN :
#1-Place a buy limit order on the 50 EMA or near it.
#2-Place a take profit order on the resistance
level measured by the Bollinger bands.
#3-Do not overleverage your position-
Use margin but not too much!
Now that you know I encourage you
to read this article at least 33 times
to master this strategy.
Rocket boost this post to learn more.
Disclaimer: Trading is risky you will lose money
whether you like it or not. Please learn risk management and
profit-taking strategies.
Natgas - Pending RSI Failure SwingThis is an idea of what to look out for if natgas continues to rally into overbought RSI territory and tops out as it did in May and June of 2024 (current year). Look out for overbought RSI divergence followed by a failure swing as shown and outlined in further detail in the idea linked below, probably confirmed by MACD divergence as well. Look out for an approximately 40-day duration of top formation once RSI enters overbought territory, plus or minus 20 days. Be prepared for a max draw down of 2.14% if you short the close of the day the failure swing is confirmed. The previous gain was 29.16%. Due to the high draw down %, it may make sense to short a QG micro which is 1/4 of an NG contract, possibly adding more on the way down at your discretion. The trade entry may happen later this year, approximately mid November.
Also something to watch out for is a much sharper rise with a much shorter RSI failure swing pattern as was formed at the start of the year 2024 (current year), also shown on the chart. The drawdown was much smaller and the target much greater (50% gain) but the short duration made the failure swing more suspect. It’s better if more than just 5 days form the top and a deeper valley is formed.
This is all very hypothetical, but these are the types of swing trades I watch for and it’s good for me, if no one else, to note these potential trades as they approach. Please feel free to ask questions.
Previous failure swing idea with additional explanation:
EURUSD: Dollar going stronger than EuroThe orange circle, shows the exact moment where, at the same time, ICEUS:DX1! crossed over CME:6E1! and the 200-sma was in the middle of this crossover.
The Dollar futures are gaining stregth while on the other hand, Euro futures are falling in price.
After the crossover, a strong bearish candle cross the support, the price remain in congestion with yesterday price closing at 1.10533.
Today the price is already below a support during early september and a resistance in the week after.
Indicators: Besides the 200sma. The RSI is projecting to go overbought or at least close, while DMI- is increasing the direction and ADX is confirming the trend strength.
30% to 60% Upside Coming for Natty (Divergence Strategy)A powerful monthly bullish divergence just confirmed on natty.
We see that the CCI had a monthly close which confirmed the bullish divergence setup. In this video I review how to determine targets with this strategy, and how to determine your risk.
I anticipate a minimum 30% rally from current prices for natty, possibly heading up 60% from here. This doesn't mean this market won't have a pullback in the meantime. In my opinion, pullbacks are for buying until these price targets are reached.
If you have any questions about this strategy, feel free to shoot me a message.
Have a great week.
Harmony Gold Could Be Near a BreakoutHarmony Gold Mining rallied sharply in March and April. Now, after a period of consolidation, some traders may see potential for a breakout.
The first pattern on today’s chart is the range between $8.50 and $11. Prices are nearing the upper level. A close above may confirm resistance is fading.
Second is the series of higher weekly lows since mid-June. Those could indicate a longer-term uptrend.
Third, rising MACD may reflect bullish momentum.
Finally, the macro environment (falling interest rates and geopolitical risk) may favor gold miners like HMY.
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Bearish divergence on GBPUSD daily chart; sterling overbought?GBPUSD has been in an uptrend since April 22, 2024, and has accumulated a 9.19% increase between April 22 and September 26. On August 27, the RSI indicator recorded a reading of 74.96, signalling a possible overbought situation. On September 26, the reading was at 71.68, which was slightly lower than the previous RSI reading.
On the other hand, on August 27, GBPUSD was trading at 1.3264 before rallying to 1.3431 on September 26 – a marked gain over a monthly timespan. Sterling has since given up some of its recent gains, trading around the 1.33 mark.
The pound has notably been the top performer among G10 currencies this year, rising over 5% against the dollar and 4% against the euro. Its strong rally began in late April, following a brief dip below $1.23.
Sterling has appreciated by close to 10% against the U.S. dollar since last October. On a trade-weighted basis, sterling is now at its highest level since the UK's 2016 Brexit vote, just 2% below its pre-referendum level.
Blistering rally for sterling on BoE, Fed rate divergence
The currency's gains have been driven by expectations that UK interest rates will stay higher than those of other nations, due to persistent inflation in services and a surprisingly resilient economy.
Technical indicators, however, indicate that there may be signs of a potential reverse in the trend for sterling. Some analysts have also noted that the sterling-to-dollar pair may start to look expensive soon as expectations for a 50-basis-point (bps) rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to look misplaced.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell recently pushed back against forecasts of another outsized 50bps cut, saying he sees two more interest rate cuts, totalling 50 basis points, this year as a baseline “if the economy performs as expected.”
Bearish divergence may be in play for GBPUSD
A classic bearish divergence occurs when the price reaches a higher high than the previous one, while the oscillator forms a lower high. This pattern often indicates a potential for a stronger pullback or trend reversal.
On October 1st, the price dipped below the 8-period Simple Moving Average, and with a classic bearish divergence currently in play, this suggests a potential bearish pullback in GBP/USD.
The sterling-to-dollar pair may drop to the 1.3028 level, where a support zone is expected on the daily chart.
Disclaimer:
76.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK.
Make or break day for Australia’s ASX 200For all the headlines surrounding the conflict in the Middle East, many markets remain respectful of levels on the charts, providing traders will some form of certainty in an increasingly uncertain world. Australia ASX 200 SPI futures is among that list, kissing uptrend support in overnight trade before bouncing into the close.
But whether the rebound can extend is questionable; we saw a bearish engulfing candle on Tuesday and RSI (14) has diverged from price, signalling another test of the uptrend may prove more fruitful for bears than raids of the past. MACD also looks heavy, suggesting it may soon confirm the signal from RSI.
If we see a bearish break, traders could sell with a stop above the trendline targeting an initial pullback to 8137. Below that, the 50DMA and 7918 are the next levels of note.
Alternatively, if we see another retest and bounce from the uptrend, consider reversing the setup, buying the bounce with a stop below the level for protection. The obvious target would be the record high of 8334 set in late September.
Good luck!
DS
$SPY October 1, 2024AMEX:SPY October 1, 2024
15 Minutes.
AMEX:SPY had retraced to 568 levels being 9 EMA in daily.
And gave 6-point move.
For the day due to long bars 571 572 must hold today.
Holding this we can expect 578-580 levels as first target.
Today should be sideways top sort out the 2 longs bars.
No Trade Day for me
MHUA Chinese Med Tech Penny StockMHUA is shown here on the daily chart. It is currently trading at about 90% off its high of the
year. It is in the high volume area of the long term volume profile suggesting there is sufficent
liquidity to support active trading. Recent volume spikes suggest buying volume increases with
the spikes being about 10X relative volume. Price is over the POC line of the volume profile
demonstrating that buying pressure exceeds selling pressure. Price is at or near to one
standard deviation below the mean anchored VWAP and so in the undervalued area as
confirmed by the RSI Stochastic < 20 %. Chart patterns include an engulfing " big ass " candle
on 5/1 and a three-bar strike with another engulfing green candle on 5/12. Both of these
could be considered long entry signals especially when supported by the price above the POC
and the RSI. I will take a position risking 0.25% of the trading account to begin the trading
week. I am targeting a gain of $15.00 per share being a 50% retracement back to the high
YTD and a 300% return on investment. I will take a 100 share position and close 10 shares
each time the price rises by $2.00. This will adequately mitigate the risk of a volatile penny
stock while adequately rewarding the risk taken.
US small caps coiling again following bullish breakout Traders should be alert for a breakout in Russell 2000 futures which are coiling in yet another triangle pattern. Having entered from below and with three consecutive higher closes, it feels like if there’s going to be a breakout, it’s most likely going to be bullish. Momentum indicators are pushing higher, bolstering that view.
If we see triangle resistance give way, consider buying the break with a stop beneath the level for protection. The initial target would be 2305, the high struck on September 19.
Another option would be to wait for a potential retest of triangle support. If the price were to bounce from it again, you could buy with a tight stop below for protection. Targets include triangle resistance and 2305.
Prospects for both setups would likely improve if accompanied by signs of further modest easing US labour market conditions, allowing for the Fed to cut interest rates without sparking renewed fears about demand or the broader economy.
Therefore, the JOLTS survey and ISM manufacturing PMI out later Tuesday could be very influential on the performance of small caps during the session.
Good luck!
DS
XCN + 333%? X4 IS WAITING FOR IT IF THIS CONFIRMS.Last time Onyxcoin (XCN) had a Bullish divergence on RSI and make a Golden cross. it made a +383% in 5 waves making the 1st wave on the bigger cycle. (152 ds).
Wave 2 a correction ( 152 ds), corrects as Elliot says to the 4th of a minor degree.
And now that the Wave 3 seems to start, we break the descending channel and made a Golden Cross. We have the bull impulse until Feb/Mar 2025.
To confirm this we need the break out on the RSI.
And remember that Wave 3 usually is the strogest of all, we will find out on OCTOBER ;)
Cheers!
NVDA breaks below with mixed feelingsNVDA very recently breaks below its upward trend, but other factors make its break below uncertain.
Volume has been decreasing since its selloff at the peak of the 26th indicating disagreement
RSI has been holding flat at the 50 line instead breaking below
MACD also has not been moving into bearish zone just yet.
The break below is of concern, but so far we are not seeing signs that this will trigger a violent sell off yet. The sell off maybe more muted before turning around back into another rally again.
SPY breaks another upward trendSPY has broken two upward trends in this recent rally giving less momentum each time it breaks
Ended old upward rally on Sept 23, going into new rally with reduced momentum
The latest rally has now been broken again
MACD very close to going into a bearish sell off
RSI breaks below the 50 line
We may expect SPY to trade flat for a little bit of time in the distribution phase of its rally cycle, before the bears take hold.
NVIDIA - A leading Indicator for the AI trend and market NVIDIA - NASDAQ:NVDA
🟣The upper purple parallel line is acting as resistance to price at present. A rejection from this long term purple line may be an early warning signal of a significant correction. A break above it would suggest continued positive momentum.
⏳In combination with the above considerations, a breach down and out of short term parallel channel would be a secondary warning signal of a trend change to the negative.
⏳Falling below the 50 week SMA (red) would be a third confirmation of a negative trend shift.
Obviously these levels could all act as support but if they are lost one after the other (price falling below them). It could be an early warning sign of this AI trend slowing.
✅Otherwise, a repeated 142-152 week bull trend out to June 2025 or April 2026 probable for now.
Why Watch Nvidia closer than the rest?
▫️ Apple, Microsoft and NVIDIA are the top three largest companies in the world by market cap. Collectively they are almost $10 trillion worth of market capitalization. That is almost 22% of the total market cap of the S&P500 Index, so all 3 are worth watching for warning signs or positive momentum.
▫️ Nvidia could lead the market as it is providing the shovels (graphics cards) for the AI data digging/sorting and general compute/data storage. If their performance starts to wane its a signal of less digging/sorting and a slowing of purchases from NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT (indicating slowing growth in both). Keeping a close eye on this chart could provide the early warning signals of a trend change, both on the AI front and the entirety of the market cycle.
There is no guarantee of the time sequence continuing on this chart however, these cycles tend to rhyme over time. I hope Nvidia breaks above the purple line at the top of the current long term channel. At present it is stiff resistance, and if price is rejected from here lower, this could be an early warning sign of the a market correction.
Remember, you can check in on this chart and press play to get updated data at any time by clicking the link in the comments below or by following me on TradingView.
PUKA
FET/USDT Strong Support and AI Narrative Fuel Potential GrowthFET/USDT is presenting a compelling case for traders right now.
With strong support at the $1.5 level, positive technical indicators like the bullish divergence on the Stochastic Oscillator, and a growing AI narrative, FET has the potential to reach $2 in the near future.
Traders should consider this an optimal buying zone, but as always, it’s important to stay vigilant and monitor market conditions closely.
Ethereum Stability Amid Market Volatility and Promising OutlookAccording to the latest data, the Stochastic Oscillator reveals a divergence between price action and market momentum.
While the price of Ethereum has experienced higher lows, the oscillator shows a lower high.
This divergence suggests a strong possibility of a bullish reversal, meaning Ethereum’s price could rise after bouncing off its support levels.
This pattern is a positive signal for Ethereum traders, especially those looking for buying opportunities during the current dip.
BTCUSD - BullishThe BTCUSD chart is currently exhibiting a strong bullish trend marked by a series of higher highs and higher lows. This pattern indicates sustained upward momentum, providing traders with favorable entry points.
Higher Highs and Higher Lows: The consistent formation of higher highs and higher lows reinforces the bullish trend, suggesting that the price is likely to continue rising.
Absence of Divergence: The lack of divergence further strengthens this bullish outlook, indicating no signs of potential reversals or weakening momentum.
Conclusion
In summary, the BTCUSD chart shows a robust bullish trend, with indicators supporting further upward movement. Traders should remain vigilant for any changes in this pattern.
Long Nikkei 225 setup with momentum remaining bullishNikkei 225 futures look terrible on the dailies, with a shooting star candle followed up by a big bearish candle on Friday, completing an evening star pattern. Convention suggests downside risks are building, but I’m not going to follow convention today.
Sitting just above the 50-day moving average, a decent long setup has presented itself, especially with USD/JPY moving off its lows in early Asian trade. RSI (14) and MACD continue to generate bullish signals, making me more inclined to buy dips, bolstering the case for longs.
You could buy around these levels with a tight stop below the 50-day moving average for protection, targeting 38425 initially. A break of that level may bring a push towards 40000 into play.
Good luck!
DS
$SPY September 30, 2024AMEX:SPY September 30, 2024
15 Minutes
For the fall 574.21 to 570.42 572 is a good level to short.
First target is 569.5 to 570 levels.
AMEX:SPY seems to have lost momentum on Friday. Looks highly possible to touch 200 averages in 15 minutes.
This retrace will allow AMEX:SPY to begin next move upwards as in daily also it is around 9 ema around 569 levels.
So initially a retrace to 568-570 is good to consolidate.
Monday no trade day for me.