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M1

CHINA GOING FOR IT! Until Christmas? #BlowoffTop and Recession!Breakout and retest for RSI, China breakingout after 6 long years. This will have implications on every market, they were waiting for the FED to pull the trigger and now they can go. Game on! #JD is going, Commoditties will go for it, except #oil maybe. But more important, #Bitcoin will have the #BLOWOFFTOP I was looking for. That´s the News GOODS... The BAD News is, Recession or Crisis after it. December or March 25´as late.
HSI:HSILong
by PickleBiit
🔥 Bitcoin vs Money Supply: Massive Move On The Horizon?M1 Money Supply (M1SL): "M1 is the money supply that is composed of currency, demand deposits, other liquid deposits—which includes savings deposits. M1 includes the most liquid portions of the money supply because it contains currency and assets that either are or can be quickly converted to cash." - Investopedia The M1SL amount is important since it tracks the amount of money in an economy that is able to be deployed quickly into the economy. If people have more to spend, they will generally spend more as a result of this. When we take a look at the $ value of BTC divided by M1SL, the chart has been trading relatively flat since December of 2017. This means that Bitcoin has not gained substantially against the central banks' money printers. On the other hand, it appears that BTC/M1 has been forming an inverse Head & Shoulders pattern over the last 5.5 years. Assuming this pattern will play out, BTC will continue to gain against M1 and break out of this 5.5 year consolidation pattern. Assuming that M1 will continue to increase (like it always does), this would mean that BTC will see another 2016-2017 scenario in the future where it will see exponential returns and potentially even do a 100x over the next few years. This scenario is not the most likely scenario to play out, but it's definitely an interesting one. Hope to hear your thoughts in the comments 🙏
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by FieryTrading
21
M2 vs. M2v (or Money Supply by Money Velocity) This is a pretty bleak chart illustrating how printing more bad money is not the solution to a broken monetary system. The FRED:M2 can be seen gradually increasing at around a 30 or so degree slope until about 2011 onward where it becomes steeper... then at the beginning of the pandemic -- it turns parabolic. During the same period you can see the FRED:M2V which is a measure of how much penetration each dollar is getting (in other words, how many different hands does it touch on its way through the economy. More velocity means each dollar goes farther as it relates to the health of the economy. So what in the world is happening now? Well a massive influx of new dollars added to the money supply aren't moving past wall street. Most of this money is just bouncing between super wealthy and well-connected insiders, being used by corporations to buy back shares, or simply just sitting in a literal or electronic vault, where it never reaches the actual economy. This is a dangerous situation that can get out of hand quickly, culminating (in the worst case) into a widespread loss of faith in the money supply and almost overnight devaluation of the currency. This has happened with ever other paper currency in history, which would be an excellent place to begin research if you are interested in knowing more about what is happening to our currency. My only advice is to be aware that the security you feel with a wallet full of cash is actually a luxury only afforded to global hegemonic powers; one which is always ephemeral even though many may struggle to remember a time when that seemed possible.
FRED:WM2NS
by mattcorwin1
2yr & 10yr Bond with M1Nothing to be concerned about here... if you're an ostrich. Inflation spiraling out of control, while bonds reflect the loosest monetary policy possible with a dovish Federal Reserve hand-wringing about tanking the markets. M1 has gone beyond parabolic, practically vertical. The Fed communicated this week that they will try and control future prices but they're not going to do anything to reign in current "transitory" prices. Fed Chair Powell "hopes" history will say the current regime got this under control when replying to Senator Shelby in congressional talks this week... to which Shelby replied their actions to this point indicate otherwise.
TVC:US10Y
by R0MM3LL
Gold/M1 money stockSo the comparison of gold value vs the total liquid money stock. (M1) This M1 money supply includes coins and currency in circulation—the coins and bills that circulate in an economy that are not held by the U.S. Treasury, at the Federal Reserve Bank, or in bank vaults. Anyone holding gold, after the COVID dollar printing, basically lost an enormous amount of purchasing power. this cannot be right! What trickery is this? Another way to read this, instant inflation, or really hard to buy gold after this. Am I correct in my assumptions? I find this chart shocking. Can somebody please explain to me what and why this is acceptable?
TVC:GOLD
by klugook
1
M2 VelocityM2 consists of small-denomination time deposits >$100K - less IRA and Keogh balances at Institutions. Balances in retail MMFs - less IRA and Keogh balances at MMFs. M2: Savings Deposits, Small-Denomination Time Deposits, Retail Money Market Funds, + M1. ____________________________________ In Sum, Consumer Economic activity and Balances. ____________________________________ The Velocity of money is calculated as the ratio of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) to the money supply (V=PQ/M), which is used to measure Economic strength and/or Consumers' willingness and/or ABILITY to spend money or Consume. ____________________________________ The Federal Reserve is well behind the Inflation Curve. Initially, 2024 was the year for Fed Funds rate increases. It has since moved from 2024 to 2023 and now there is a 73% Probability of the Federal Reserve increasing Fed Funds twice in 2022. 8 Months of tapering at the indicated removal of $15Billion is not going to occur. The Federal Reserve will not be able to delay, they will increase the reduction to Bond/MBS Purchases in order to begin a Rate Cycle sooner than Equity Complex Participants have assumed. Thye have not recognized the underlying ISSUES, should Money Velocity begin to increase... they will be forced to reduce QE faster and further than the majority are anticipating. 4 Fed Members prefer to conclude the Taper at the end of March 2022. ____________________________________ Peak Earnings are now behind us, Q2 2021 was the Zenith of this Credit Cycle.
FRED:M2V
by HK_L61
VVIX - 105s - * VERY Important for 30 Calendar Days to 11/21/21The VVIX was cornered to the 105s, as soon as this Level was violated the 100 Level. Gaps were filled on the VIX M1 October as we began to Settle November. This left a lower Gap for the settled Front Month / M1 - November. The HIgh Low Close - 16.10 / 14.70 / 15.35 for October Settelement. The HIgh Low Close - 19.70 / 19.30 / 19.325 for November Settlement. This occurred October 19th - Wednesday. Spread on Close = 400 Ticks - this is the present Gap Fill for the M1 / November VIX. It is quite large... and the ALGOs will fully lever this spread into November... which means the potential for Higher Equities Complex. They have set this up perfectly. Be aware - Higher Prices can exceed the ATH's, it is not only Possible but Probable given the Roll Yields. Weekly Indicators remain Bearish, but this is subject to change. ______________________________________________________________________ Patience into Settle was suggested, as we now know the Game.
V
by HK_L61
2
VIX - Roll Yield ImportanceImportant Note, the Roll Yield is important for the VXX. I have heard countless YouTube and Forum Gurus dismiss the VXX as a Junk Derivative. A Scam... Nothing is further from the Truth. That statement demonstrates how there are far too many "Gurus" with no understanding of Volatility itself. The VXX is comprised of the 30 day Short Term Rolling Maturity outline in the prior 2 Posts. We simply laid the groundwork for how this all comes together to show how "balance" is achieved for the VXX Instrument.... it is constantly moving from M1 to M2 the Day it Settles. Hopefully, this was clear enough for those unfamiliar with how Volatility works in the Futures Markets and how it impacts ALL Markets. The Methodology is known, it is based upon VIX Futures in relation to the Spot VIX >>> SPOT VIX & M1 @ Settle "Converge" then to become equal in Price @ PAR. Roll Yield is how the VXX Derives its Price. VXX is not a STOCK, it is an Index based upon M1/M2. It simply is a Wash Rinse Repeat cycle Index for M1 / M2 in Constant Maturity. I received a message asking me to explain this, Hopefully, it is clear now.
CBOE:VX1!
by HK_L61
3
Giant cup & handle on BTC adjusted for M1This chart shows BTC adjusted in alignment with the value of USD, when M1 money supply is accounted for. As we know M1 was discontinued by the Fed allegedly because it paints a less than rosy picture of high inflation. The website shadowstats has done an excellent job of tracking these figures since the 70's. When BTC is adjusted for this we can see that in this bull run, up to May we didn't even surpass the previous ATH. Ben Cowen covered this on his Youtube channel recently. I have noticed a massive cup & handle forming on the daily chart & wanted to share it with you guys here. If you have any further ideas on this interesting chart please link in the comments! NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE
CRYPTOCAP:BTCLong
by Ch3ffykins
M1 - Velocity continues deterioratingAs BR & VG maintain a healthy prop under the Equities Complex.... Real activity outside of the "Markets" is grinding to a decided halt. Uncertainty has gained a foothold and it is not going to reverse in the near future. The spectacle in chasing Price, big greens bars... is merely a trade. It is not an investment, those days are long gone as the Fundamentals of our Economy have collapsed. The prop can buy time, but that is limited as well as Risk Factors only continue to compound. They are everywhere and well ignored by speculators and gamblers alike. Behaviors are symptomatic of far greater ills within our Culture, which had devolved to into a myriad of untoward circumstances. Patterns repeat. We are witnessing the transfer of wealth on a scale unseen in Human History. It is truly disturbing. The panic Sell can only be prolonged for a finite time. When Price cuts loose to the downside, most will Hold as the indoctrination of FED Policy and BTD is what plays. Until it does not.
FRED:M1VShort
by HK_L61
M1 - Oops, Collapse - LARGE SELL is days to a week away.Although WARNINGS abound - the emotional's wed to their beliefs in Potential Short Squeeze(s)... the FED, Their charts, The sympatico Herd, Confirmation Bias. "Hoping" for Hope. Ignoring the Signs. It ends badly. Catalyst? Could be anything, FOMC, CHINA, DX/BONDS. The footprints are observable. M2 never declines, it is the Velocity which matters. It's heading to 0 and below. We are in a Large SELL - ES YM RTY NQ TQQQ TSLA ARKK We are in a staggered Inverse BID - VXX SEPVIX SOXS SQQQ We are holding for a 200sma Correction
FRED:M1VShort
by HK_L61
2
How Central Banks Are Stealing Your MoneySince the merger between the Fed and the Treasury (kidding, kind of), I've had so many conversations with individuals outside of the financial industry who struggle to fully grasp how central banks are stealing their money. Today, I'm going to share a short and simple post which I hope will help explain the direct effect of "money printing," on the working class. Let's jump right into it. When interest rates remain low for an extended period of time (historically), risk assets become more prone to rampant speculation (lucky for those holding assets outside of cash), leading to massive distortions in the underlying fundamentals of those assets, and historical valuation deviations from the mean (which is mathematically unsustainable). The rapidily rising prices of both assets, and goods & services, which is not being stimulated by an actual increase in the velocity of money, but rather from central banks artificially flooding the monetary system with liquidity (while interest rates are near zero), contributes to a lower standard of living for those holding cash as their primary asset. For example: If you have $100 in your bank account, and perhaps this is your only asset, then the central bank increases the money supply by 25%, what they've just done is increase the denominator which underpins the value of that $100. Here's a simple logical demonstration: 100/100 = 1 (baseline purchasing power.) 100/125 = 0.80 (a 25% increase in the money supply in this example, as a result of central bank money printing, results in a 20% loss in purchasing power.) In essence, in this hypothetical situation, you've just lost 20% of your purchasing power. With CPI in the US running at 5.4% YoY vs the Fed's 2% "target," we're currently looking at an inflation rate almost triple the Fed's goal. The US10Y yield trades at 1.25% while CPI is 5.4%, and the Fed continues to print $1.44 Trillion on an annualized basis, with no end in sight. Welcome to the wonderfully horrific world of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Anyone looking for a hedge?
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Hedge_Of_The_World
13
AAPL Long...Possible breakoutThis chart I quickly drew for myself a while back. Any more information or explanation please just leave comment. With the US Vaccination numbers compared to other countries I would definitlly trust the US companies the most while other countries still struggles with getting Covid undercontrol. We all saw what the market does when lockdowns are announced so for me right now as South African, all my holdings is within the US economy and exchanges. I think Apple is the perfect low risk value and growth stock for those looking to put their gains of last year in more stable holdings, big money such as ARK uses Apple and other FANG stocks as liquidy pools for their cash... Its stable and realisticly Apple has given almost alll investors to date great gains and with M1 as their start for apple silicon. People don't relize the margin gain Apple is making due to their in house silicon. The current ecosystem has already proven to be a sticky mess to get out, Apple silicon just closes the loop now from hardware to software. As far as I remember this is and was always Apples main goal, Software and hardware optimized for each other and Apple now finaly has that to their macs. What news am I waiting on? The new 14inch Macbook pro and the current 27 inch imac replacement. That will give this company a greate upside to its current share price. My 1 year target is around $155-$180 New all time high could come sooner and I won't exclude $200 a share. Thanks Everyone
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by rudiroelofse