BTC Perfect Retest of major support on the $Bitcoin M1 ChartAs you can see, Bitcoin rejected perfectly at resistance (3.50) and bounced perfectly from Major Support line (1.70).
The chart explains it perfectly.
As long as things stay above that 1.70 level, I think this could be a significant S&R Flip, with Bitcoin showing strength as a hedge against inflation.
If it falls below 1.70, well... then I will assume a more bearish mid term stance.
MM.
M1
M1 BLX, US10 BTC INTERESTING CORRELATIONThere are too many variables, FED printed Money, US 10 Years interest and bitcoin.
This is an experimental study no certain output available
If the gray box will be broken, there might be a massive rug pull.
close below the red trend line is also risky.
There is a double top divergence which might force to go lower.
Do the math
BTC price adjusted for money supply did't even hit its ATH yet!I took a closer look at the difference between the BLX/M1 chart and the standard BLX one.
I specifically looked at the times the price of BTC definitively crossed its previous ath. The difference between those charts in previous bull runs is minimal. In terms of time difference its 7d and 28d respectively and an about 30% to 40% difference.
BUT this time around we are actually still not at the actual ath (meaning in the M1 adjusted chart) while the classic BTC/USD price is way past its all time high. More than 300% of the USD gains are kinda fake.
We would need to hit around 100k $ to have a true ath.
Previously I estimated the BTC price to top out at between 200k-280k, but if you take all that into account I could see BTC go to 350k$ (even when they stopped printing fiat today which they aren't).
Let me know what you think! :)
THE US DOLLAR IS FUCKEDThe FED just updated their series and MODIFIED the past year of data to reflect an 18 trllion monetary base. I'd like to know why their data was only showing 6 trillion until today. Maybe it's a bug? Maybe it's real? Who even knows anymore. Cash = trash
Money velocity in orange, base supply in blue.
Here's the source of series:
fred.stlouisfed.org
TQQQ Divided by the M1 Money SupplyIt seems like the government stimulus bill news is messing up my shorting schemes in the short term.
It's amazing how the Nasdaq can continue to approach the Singularity like this. You'd think we'd run out of money to dump into it eventually.
I divided TQQQ by the M1 money supply and it seems like there might be some sort of ceiling.
Or it could just go to infinity, I guess.
AAPL will break-out on earnings; cup & handleA cup and handle formation has formed. Apple is due for a break-out. Not only is the cup-&-handle forming, but the stock has already contended with it's most recent high. More often than not, a stock will blast through previous resistance if it has already been tested and rejected once; as Apple has.
Go long AAPL. Earnings will make it pop.
Stop loss: $125.00
Buy under: $140.00
Sell half after it hits $155
With the new turmoil at IBM and Intel, the M1 chip is even more significant now than ever; especially with most automakers having backorders for their semiconductor chips needed for a car. Even though Apple does not specialize in this if they can execute better than the generational chip companies, then they will most likely be the first choice for any other chip project based on AAPL's superiority & reliability.
The stock should easily reach $150, and most likely carry on once the momentum traders tag along. I see a final selling price target of roughly $175. It should hit major resistance if it blows past $150/160.
Silver Priced in Dollars Devalued by M1If you were to devalue the US Dollar in real time as M1 money supply increases, it would price in inflation immediately.
M1 money supply is the amount of liquid available currency within the federal reserve system.
Compare this chart to the current Silver chart and it will give you a glimpse into the future for Silver.
To quantify this into a Silver price, take your % measuring tool, put the starting point where the previous all time high was in 2011, and put the ending point at where the price is on this chart - about 80%.
Take that percentage and apply it from the 2011 all-time high on the Silver chart today, and it should give you about $90 per oz of silver.
Gold Priced in Dollars Devalued by M1If you were to devalue the US Dollar in real time as M1 money supply increases, it would price in inflation in immediately.
M1 money supply is the amount of liquid available currency within the federal reserve system.
Compare this chart to the current Gold chart and it will give you a glimpse into the future for gold.
To quantify this into a gold price, take your % measuring tool, put the starting point where the previous all time high was in 2011, and put the ending point at where the price is on this chart - about 200%.
Take that percentage and apply it from the 2011 all-time high on the Gold chart today, and it should give you about $5000 per oz of gold.
Explain why M2 Money and DXY shrank while SPX remained high?An interesting thing happened in the last 2 weeks of November.
Money Supply: United States people fled to cash by converting M2 money stock (savings, investments, money market) into M1 (checking and cash).
Dollar: Foreign investors presumably sold off dollar assets bringing DXY down around 2% in the month.
To recap: The money supply indicates that US people sold stocks and bonds. The Dollar decrease indicates that foreign investors sold stock and bonds.
Explain to me, then, how SPX remained elevated? How is it doing that?
Is Gold Losing It's Relevance?Looking at some of the historic phases we were in (Dot.com Bubble, Real-Estate Bubble) and the current Zero-Interest Bubble, the M1 money stock and the development of the S&P500 the question arises if gold is losing it's relevance as safe haven. Given the explosion of central bank money and the clear trend to govern by central bank monetary policy one would expect gold should already show clear signs of strength and grow in value.
After the Dot.com bubble burst gold was in demand. After the real estate bubble burst gold was in demand. Then something happened. 9/11 and the "War on Terror" and continued M1 money stock or cheap central bank money flooding. Gold lost value continuously. Up until SARS-CoV2 and the Great Reset strategies being executed. With the sudden drop in oil prices in Feb. 2020 and Covid-19 being used to create quite a fear monster gold was in high demand.
But gold was put in check (for now) again by the central banks. This time with crazy rocket parabolic money supply explosion.
Now the question will be will central banks be able to contain the monsters they summoned by their strategies and keep the world economy afloat even when in the next couple of month the economic bad news will become visible and will have to be managed? Will the shy money seek yet another time gold as a safe haven?
Any of the yellow continuation arrow trends for gold seem possible. Note it does appear historically more likely that gold will rise to new heights.
Gold remains a valid portion of any portfolio. At what percentage and what shape (physical or digital ) is up to each of us to decide for ourselves.