NASDAQ spread between M2 supply almost reached levels we not seen since 2001. Almost like double top or sqeezed top wave5 (1.105 level of whole range as max target). Couple months may give us clue, as usually these extreme levels suppose to reached very fast if we close to real top.
Going against the norm. Modeling stock markets using non-normal distributions. That is the only way to take into account the massive volatility that markets can reach. arxiv.org Laplace Distributions manage to analyze prices better than normal ones. It is, as if, stock market is not normal, as in abnormal. As if it defies all physics. 2020 surely suggests that....
We all remember The Great Depression. That is a lie. Very few who live today lived when this monumental event occured. After the Roaring '20s, a decade of parabolic stock market growth and explosive demand for stocks , the cash-out came. In the Depression, people were giving out stocks for free, burning the titles. Truly a desperate action by many. Demand for...
Our bodies tend to grow as we age. Our minds and skills also tend to grow as we age. Some skills however, never grow. A child may draw a line. It can be squiggly, but still, a line. It doesn't change much as we age though. An analyst can pretend to be a pro, just by drawing a single line. Crazy right? Two lines, one straight, one curvy. Both lead us to the...
-- Prologue -- Crises don't come when everybody expects them to. I have said this over and over again, for the last year I've been in this platform. I don't take it back. Finding out the kind of crisis that will come, the time and the severity, is hard. Trading, investing, living, is hard... Some have called me schizophrenic. This is funny. When you say what...
Bitcooooooins... UP! In the recent history, we have had two perma-bull trade-ables, NDQ and Bitcoin. No-one in their real mind would dare to short these 2 years ago... So what if, we could compare these two bulls? Who will survive in the years to come? Who is the record keeper? The answer is NOT as simple as it might seem. Read until the end to find out... 2022...
The scale of what is happening cannot be understated. Massive amounts of money have been printed, then burned immediately. It is as if the FED is trolling us... Or we are being trolled by our own minds. Equities reflect the mental state of investors, big and small alike. The dilemma is causing headaches, it has reached a paradoxical state. No human, not even...
There are two kinds of inflation, the normal one and the dangerous one. Printing money creates inflation. The kind however which is not dangerous to the foundation of the economy. With money printing, currency loses value and prices react accordingly. Nobody gets wealthy from money printing, and in a sense, "nobody" gets poor. By nobody I mean the economy as an...
The Red line is support formed by $CBOE:SPX/FRED:M2SL The Green line is a duplicate of the red placed over the VIX for the same period showing clear divergence and a point of resistance. I know the VIX is misleading now due to 0dte. Critique is invited but regardless, will the Grinch visit this Christmas?
Historical data can be hard to compare against modern ones. The longer back an analyst goes, the better the results of their analysis. 100 years of yield rate analysis may seem enough... 5000 years of interest rates however is a whole new story. Money has been as cheap as it has been for the past 5000 years. Incredible numbers... Source: ...
Not all is equal. And nothing is static. Entropy is the foundation of our world, and it is the bane of a rich man's existence. You collect in one spot, then nature comes up and spreads your work around. Entropy is the unbeatable power of justice. In the end entropy always wins. One has limited amount of time to temporary evade it. Panta Rhei - Heraclitus...
We are at a crossroads. As if we have nothing to invest in. Gold is, in absolute terms, highly overpriced. Gold is more than 50% above the 24 year average. And highly diverging... It still is the massive elephant in the room. Yield rates are the small rat in the room. Due to fast rate hikes, the bond market has suffered incalculable losses. Gold...
Nobody was prepared the time when the 2020 Black Swan came. But the location of the Swan is very interesting: First, SPX: Not very interesting of a spot... In the middle of nowhere really. Now, DJI/M2SL There has been an impenetrable ceiling for more than 10 years. We almost hit it a third time since 2008, and then the crash came. Long-term Inflation...
A "back to the basics" analysis. Let's leave behind the stock markets and look at the slow and deep fundamentals of the worldwide economy. Today I will attempt to make a simple analysis using GDP. This is the net profit of one country. The miracle of China caught the West in the sleep. It outperformed the largest economy of the world. And by incredible...
The Big One. The big question. Buy or sell? A question is easy. An answer can be hard. Most of us here trade because we believe we have a grasp on the answers. And we have several methods on our toolkit to reach a conclusion. One of these methods is belief . That's what we gamble upon. Belief on indices, stocks, ETFs, currencies is what makes us buy them and...
This year has been very boring... Lot's of horizontal movement, not many interesting news. Well, except of course that "a couple" of banks went bust. But if I didn't tell you that, you couldn't tell where in this chart this occurred... SPX, and the market in general, has been too stubborn despite the importance of the events occurring. On the one hand, this...
I am not lying. I am completely disproving my latest idea, on how to short SPX. That idea went on Editors' Picks. And I am now killing it. I am not kidding, April Fools is for fools. I don't consider me or you a fool. So I am being serious. Chart analysis is not always straightforward. Pinpointing tops and bottoms is the ultimate bet for a trader. As most of...
Ordinarily, I wouldn't contemplate them... but these *are* extraordinary times. - G-Man A bank just went broke, oops! It was certainly something we expected. With money literally burning, these kinds of events are expected. So what might be ahead of us? The rate-hike schedule went relatively smooth sailing until now. But just last week something changed... When...