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Ma200

BTC needs to touch daily MA200 again.Well, the idea is simple and short. Like in 2012 or in 2015/16, after this first rally of the new bullmarket, we'll need to retest the daily MA200. I've drawn a possible future daily MA200, taking the second 2012 rally, to which I see many similarities. BTC will at least go to 10k first, it could of course also overshoot to 12k or the like. However, we need a stronger correction to get down again from overbought levels on the weekly timeframe. I think a correction down to 5-6k will happen and is healthy. Afterwards, stabilization and consolidation in the 6-7k range for a few months, until the daily MA200 comes up so that BTC touches it, going sideways. Then, the next leg up will happen. That's my current view, if BTC sticks to the old rules. Which by the way, it might not, as we have seen with the "no capitulation spike" low at 3200 USD. So again, this is a probability for which I see a high chance. Many people don't get that trading is about probabilities. They are like: HAHAHA! You were wrong that time, you are a bad trader. Well, the best traders can't achieve more than a 60-70% success ratio. 30-40% will always be bad calls, best case. This stuff is about longterm strategy, readjusting fast, not clinging to beliefs, not being biased in any way. BTC does something unexpected, fine, readjust yourself, readjust your strategy, adapt to the new situation immediately. Don't cling to a certain picture because you don't like it that you were wrong. Only then can one have success in this market. That's my opinion, and that's at least what worked for me.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
8
BTC Is Close To "Supernova Explosion" . CHEAP FOR THE FUTUREThe Most Important Moving Average Period is probably week. AS you can see, In the recent year, MA20 and MA50 influenced trend price. BTC is above the MA200 , That is ok. MA50 and MA100 are close to each other, then we can focus on the MA50 Look! BTC is below the MA20 but very close to cross up the MA20. IF BTC cross up 4060 USD in the end of this week then the big trend might be changed. That is not all. There is Ma50 . IF BTC cross up Ma50 with high volume too, the bullish trend will come. BTC Price: 4041 BITFINEX:BTCUSD
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by TraderMikabot
7
Amazing convergence of BTC supports points to a certain priceI noticed a crazy convergence of extremeley important supports, at a price range, that I think, will be the strongest support in this bearmarket. The first support being the weekly MA300. The second support being the longterm squareroot function trendline. The third support being the line connecting the 2013 ATH with the China dip. The last one comes from an idea by: Credit to him for noticing this interesting characteristics of BTC, which also held in the previous BTC bearmarkets for estimating the low. All these three extremely solid supports point to a price target of 2000-2500 USD. Somewhere in that range. I don't see it going below these supports for an extended period of time. If, then only very briefly with a very strong rebound.
BNC:BLXShort
by SebastianofMoon
6
BTC in the coming weeks, part 2: What supports are importantThe follow up chart on yesterdays chart, zoomed out a bit, to understand the important supports at play here, and why the MA200 is not the support to look at, as the strongest possible support. We see that the probable future MA200, is quite far above the squareroot-trend. A trend, which has stood since 2010, and has been tested again and again. There is no stronger support in BTC than this one. We see that the MA200 is too far above this support. This means that the MA200 moving average is too fast, BTC has gotten a bit slower. The MA300 on the other hand, will be in a few weeks to months EXACTLY at the Sqrt support! Those two supports will actually be exactly at the same price in the next months !!! At around 2400-2500 USD. This is extremely important! I don't think that BTC will be able to penetrate this support, and close below. Even if it would drop to say 1900-2200 USD, which would be below, the weekly candle would bounce back dramatically and close at least at MA300 and Sqrt support, so around 2400-2500 USD. I think this will form the new accumulation floor in the period before the next halving, say until mid 2020 at the latest. In anticipation of the halving, we'll probably slowly start rising before that, in early 2020 is my estimate. I am long until the weekly in BTC is on overbought, so till the mid 4000s. The weekly RSI also has to come up before the next drop, it was very oversold.> When BTC hits the logarithmic resistance, I will go short. The coming months will represent a huge opportunity, so good luck to everyone!
BNC:BLXLong
by SebastianofMoon
11
Possible paths for BTC depening if MA200 support holdsSo, we have been floating around the weekly MA200 for a while now. BTC seems to want to drag out the decision as long as possible. I expected a rally towards 5000, but because the longs are too high, this rally is almost impossible now. It would have done a rally, if shorts remained higher than longs, which wasn't the case unfortunately. This means that at best, we now could get a slow creeping upwards towards 4500ish, and then the final low at around 2000, represented by the green line. The red line, represents what will probably happen if BTC breaks MA200 support. A quick panic sell to 2000ish plusminus, then recovery, but then the final low a few months later to 1200. THe MA300 will provide some solid support in both cases, it will be hard to penetrate it down for a long time. I think the accumulation phase will form either way at around the MA300 support. The flashcrash to 1200 would be fast, and bounce back up to MA300 support. In both cases, due to the increasing network activity (www.blockchain.com), and thus increasing Network price, plus also the halving come nearer and nearer, in both cases I think that from 2020 onwards, we'll see the new bullmarket. An excellent opportunity to buy below 3000, either way. Good luck catching the knife to all :)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon
7
The world won't end if weekly MA200 is broken!Even the legendary Masterluc himself, gives too much credit to the MA200. And yes, it is an important support, because it acted as solid support in the 2014/15 bearmarket. However, before that, the MA100 was considered solid support, and it was broken in the 2014/15 bearmarket. It seems that we go further down on the MAs, probably this time, MA300 will act as solid support, in the 2000's. A flash crash below that is possible, which would nicely line up with the 1800 area, that I had in mind since quite a while. The moving averages move such, that they creep towards the sqrt trendline, because the trendline is getting flatter and flatter with time, so that the higher numbered MA's have time to creep towards it. Therefore the square-root trendline acts together with the weekly moving averages as support for BTC. I stronlgy believe that after BTC has found the bottom in this bearmarket, and most weak hands are shaken out (as in the last cycles), we can start the new uptrend in 2020. I always also look at number of wallet growth, and daily transactions over at blockchain.info, and yes, btc is still growing exponentially, no surprises there :) Disruptive technologies always do that, and we are still far away from saturation point (will be when BTC users go into the billions) I corrected the ATH date a bit behind, after I saw the excellent analysis from TradingShot, he figured out the cycle length, which is more accurate than my initial cycle length: His chart, together with this one, should give a good estimate on the timeline and possible lows and highs of this and the next cycle. Good luck fishing the bottom in the next few months :) The strong hands will be rewarded a few years later, I am very convinced of that.
BNC:BLXLong
by SebastianofMoon
6
All my indicators converge towards a bullish reversalBitcoin course has just made a rebound on the MA 200 long-term trend. This had not happened since 2015 (January to October) as my graph shows in logarithmic. What at the time had signed the end of the bear market in 2014! This trend reversal signal adds to those of my previous ideas. To summarize all my ideas, there is a convergence of the following signals: Rebond on MA 200 as in January 2015 (see the present idea) + ETEi: reversal figure during training (see the update of my idea of December 18, 2018) + RSI 14 <30 as on January 12, 2015 (see my idea of December 18, 2018) + Retracement of Fibonacci under 23.6% as on January 12, 2015 (see my idea of November 20, 2018) + Fractal "cup & handle": the speculative bubble of 2017 and its break-up of 2018 follow a path very similar to the 2013 bubble and its burst in 2014 (see my ideas of September and October more and more refined) The entry point for "buy and hodl" seems to be the rebound to $ 3k To extrapolate on the Altcoins of your choice (be careful, the more one targets the low marketcap, the more it is "high risk high rewards", it goes without saying) And I want to remind him at the risk of drooling: if the story really comes to be repeated as in 2015, the next 9 ~ 10 months would be a relatively flat corridor, but who can "range trade" between 3000 and 6000 $, before knowing a real bullrun as in 2016-2017 that can lead us to new highs. Happy New Year ;) WARNING: This is not an investment advice. Only invest what you are willing to lose. Do not listen to any "prophet", only rely on your own opinion.
BNC:BLXLong
by MaxHodler
6
Is it time to go long?Many people are probably short now, so go long? If we go LONG now, it can take one, two weeks, to 4750/4950 (between fibonacci ret. 0.382 and 0.5) depends on where you look, then a fast way down, probably before end of this month, maybe begining of next, the rock botton should be between 21-2300 - 28-3000 (MA200). If we go SHORT now, it will get more bumpy down with ups and downs, can maybe take one month longer to reach rock bottom. Then the rock bottom could go even lower maybe around 11-1300 - 19-2100 depends on where you look.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by B1TC01N-M00N3R
Hello Monero - Long Bullish Gentlemen, every time we saw MA200, MA100, MA50 on a top-bottom sequence forming over the chart, it has produced a strong bullish move; it happened before in Jan/Feb ’15, Jan/Feb ’16 and now it’s happening again. When we look back to Jan/Feb ’16 MA200, MA100 & MA50 we see a very similar scenario. The chart starts ascending breaking both MA50 & MA100 till it hits back when meeting MA200, onwards while its descending both the MA50 and the MA100 form a crossing support giving a stronger attempt to break the MA200. Targets are: 0.0194 0.0214 0.0253 0.0326 -- small request: Like the chart to receive updates and provide me with insights as i don't usually make Monero charts :) Good luck with your trades
Long
by yhal
It probably won't break daily MA200 resistance any time soonThere could be a short term push towards the daily moving average 200, however, I don't see BTC pushing through just yet. This probably will happen sometime in 2019, and this will be the buy signal for me. Just being patient, and waiting for it to break the resistance. There is a small chance that it will break the resistance before that, in this case, it is advisable to watch how strong the break is, volume-wise. I am still not convinced that we'll see a rally this year. Only in case of a massive DXY drop, there would be a chance for a rally. I see the probability for that quite low. For clarification: I am short term long, mid-term short, and long term always long.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by SebastianofMoon
2
MA200 resistance, will BTC manage to break through?It looks as if BTC could make it this time, however there are still mixed signals. Daily has been overbought for a while now, like the last two tops, when BTC price hit exactly the MA200 line. Shorts are coming down fast, longs rising, so if BTC doesn't break through fast enough, it could go down again. I have to admit that I am undecided right now. I will just wait and see if BTC makes it through the MA200, if yes, I am getting more bullish again short and mid-term (longterm I am as always ultra bullish hehe).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by SebastianofMoon