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Short On CAD/CHF SELL SELL SELL !!!Reasons for -Firstly as we can see on higher time frames we are down trending -We have come to our key level at 0.75000 and shown a strong level of RES numerous times -Also our Fibonacci Lines up perfectly with our key level which price has reacted to at 61.8% level -Now the retrace is over we can look to go short ! -Also We are in a corrective structure ! selling the break of the channel would be the best thing to do if you want to be conservative ! -Also the overall look of price action in this area is very bearish If we go to the daily we have been in a area of congestion at 0.7500 which gives me we are ready for the last impulse to the down side Trade with care with guys 1-2% Risk :)
Short
by ARFXC
5
Long On EUR/USD BUY BUY BUY !!!Reasons for -Daily we have Had a nice up move now we have had a to a key level at 1.0000 -Also we have had 3 Dojis in a row -Showing obvious Rejection from our key area at 1.0000 -On the lower time frame on the four hour we have had a rejection of a keyFIB level 0.618 level -Also shown a rejection from 1.09500 which is in line with our Fib level and also a strong level for EURUSD -On the weekly we can clearly see we have been stuck in a box range for some time now -And perhaps its time for it to break and finally move higher ? -Essentially we are making Lower highs -We have also bounced of Key trend line which has been in place for many years 2 months ago so this could be the push the EUR needs altho this is a long term view :) I Believe we are ready to go long on a major trend upwards :)
Long
by ARFXC
16
Short On EUR/GBP SELL SELL SELL !!Reasons for -Firstly we have broken key trend line -We have had an area of consolidation -And now we are getting a impulse move to the downside -We also broke constructive structure ! -So selling the impulse to the downside would be a good idea ! -Previous four hour candle was a engulfing that took out Almost a day worth of Price action ! -Altho this is a counter trend move i am trying to catch the start of a new trend which is risky but with a good Risk reward ! it is very worth taking the risk :) -Also on the daily the previous daily candles was a bearish hammer so hopefully we can break this low and then continue lower ! :) Good luck everyone and have a good trading week :) Keep good risk management 1% of account :)
Short
by ARFXC
2
GILD: The Little Engine that CouldDespite my overall bearish outlook on stocks, Gilead Sciences stands out as the 'Little Engine that Could' in the sense that it keeps chugging along despite being battered by the broader index just after earnings came out late January. On the fundamental side, most analysts think it's way underweight citing that it should be worth as much as 66% more as per the attached article. In my personal opinion, the fact that it is largely uncorrelated with the S&P index (overlaid in red) is actually a good thing. Stocks in general are in a frenzy over more free money from a global quantitative easing, bolstered further by the dovishness of the FOMC meeting consensus released yesterday. Technically, it appears to be consolidating once more in somewhat of a flag pattern, which is even easier to see when Heikin Ashi charts are applied. Further, it is consolidating at a major fibonacci level (anchored from the high of 2016-01-25 to the strong level of support from the low of 2016-02-19). Yesterday proved very bullish leading us to expect some pullback, but the high of today was still greater than that of Tuesday, another bullish sign. Note the proximity to the Ichimoku cloud, which may indicate further pressure building at that level. The other technicals such as the MACD, ADX and RSI suggest that we are ranging, though fortunately the Aroon indicator advocates that we are in a longer term uptrend. Trading idea : Wait for a big bull bar to confirm the breakout from the flag pattern. Set your profit targets using the fibonacci levels above, with a protective stop at the base of the (hypothetical at this point) bull candle. Keep in mind that this may be something you want to hold on to long term.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by quantguy
1
All Eyes on FOMC for Equities PositionsData from the U.S. has improved by the barest of margins. The New York Fed Consumer Survey finds inflation expectations rising (by less than 1%) above expectations, and the ECB rate cut means lots of free cash to play with. Keep in mind we have the FOMC meeting coming up and their decisions will determine the direction of the markets for the near term. Expectations for the federal funds rate remain pretty consistent and the consensus is no change. Personally, I expect them to pay more lip service to foreign issues and reiterate data dependency. But the tone of their message could have a huge impact on the direction of the markets, in particular with the S&P. Moreover recession fears are still high as discussed in the attached article. The chart on SPY forms a near perfect bearish crab pattern. Further, the Aroon indicator notes we are still in a long term down trend. The OBV does show some buying pressure, though the buying volume at present does not match selling volume from December. Further, the RSI is dangerously close to reflecting overbought conditions. Although the MACD histogram is still positive, it is decreasing indicating a potential crossover in the near future. Finally, there is a growing divergence between the price and the Ichimoku cloud portending a correction soon. Trading idea: Don't enter a short position until you see a strong bear candle. After this, you can place a protective stop at the high of that candle, and set a conservative price target at the first fibonacci level at $195.26, or at $192.20 or even $189.81 depending on your risk tolerance.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
HUGE SELL OFF SELL SELL SELL !!! (ECB NEWS)So as most of you already know it is March The 10Th Which is the date where The ECB come out and speak about Monetary easing, Inflation and Rate cut What am i expecting ? Well as a mainly technical trader it is in my job description as a full time trader to look at Both technical and fundamental in the market. After heavy research into the Fundamental side of things i Believe They will launch a round of Monetary easing or Deploy a Rate cut Why do i think this ? Well Firstly We all have to look at the bigger picture how is the economy doing ? Not so good Top two economies are declining (US and Chinese) In regards to the EUROZONE it is looking even worse especially as many of the countries in the EU need bailouts and are suffering from current economic situations E.G. Greece Italy Ireland All of which are in the euro and are in great trouble Anyways many Investors predict a huge sell of for the Euro as many believe they may be willing to bring out the big News and expand its aggressive quantitative-easing program, introduce a two-tiered deposit system and offer cheap loans to banks. If so then expect a huge decline in the Euros currency as There is a huge imbalance in the Euro at the moment The question why are the ECB doing this well they are taking any drastic measurer to boost eurozone economy and like the ECB boss, Mario Draghi who said the central bank was “ready to do its part” to boost growth and inflation. Fading growth and inflation prospects will force the European Central Bank to review its policy stance And make a change to hellp its growth which of course is its main problem inflation prospects have turned for the worse, raising a credibility issue for a bank that has undershot inflation for three straight years. Which is a big worry So when you put all these factors in based of Fundamentals what does it mean well really nothing until draghi comes out and says it himself and launches Monetary easing or Rate cut's But if they do decide to go ahead with it expect a huge sell of :) For all EURO pairs What do i See based on Technicals ? Well a good thing that supports the sell of is we are below a key level of 1.1000 which is also a nice round number physiological Levels ;) Also after the big rally In February we have almost completely corrected ourself which many traders didn't believe would happen as many thought we would break the consolidation zone we have been stuck in after such a nice bullish move But once again with the EUR/USD price is undecided We seem to be bounce of our key level which also helps in a bias to the downside Anyways This is my view on the EurUsd trade safe guys News is very unpredictable expect the worse and i hope i didnt bore you to much lol Thanks for reading happy trading lets make some pips !
Short
by ARFXC
34
Can Gilead Beat the Markets?As of March 3rd, Gilead earned a 'buy' rating from Citigroup as verified by the link. It is true that GILD should have performed better after earnings as has been historically demonstrated, but it took a beating with the overall index but failed to share in the rebound. Personally, I think this is a good thing, for you'll note from my previous post here previous post that this is nothing but a massive short covering rally, just like we are seeing with oil The good news is that we seem to see see a nice breakout to the upside from the consolidation in terms of a bull triangle. We are not out of the woods yet, as we face resistance from the ichimoku cloud overhead and a neighboring fibonacci level at about $90.30. In fact, the level mentioned above would make a great stop buy order to enter the trade, and clearly that strong level of support at $87.22 would serve as a good stop loss. The subsequent levels after $90.30 make perfect profit targets.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by quantguy