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Moving Average Convergence / Divergence (MACD)

HUGE SELL OFF SELL SELL SELL !!! (ECB NEWS)So as most of you already know it is March The 10Th Which is the date where The ECB come out and speak about Monetary easing, Inflation and Rate cut What am i expecting ? Well as a mainly technical trader it is in my job description as a full time trader to look at Both technical and fundamental in the market. After heavy research into the Fundamental side of things i Believe They will launch a round of Monetary easing or Deploy a Rate cut Why do i think this ? Well Firstly We all have to look at the bigger picture how is the economy doing ? Not so good Top two economies are declining (US and Chinese) In regards to the EUROZONE it is looking even worse especially as many of the countries in the EU need bailouts and are suffering from current economic situations E.G. Greece Italy Ireland All of which are in the euro and are in great trouble Anyways many Investors predict a huge sell of for the Euro as many believe they may be willing to bring out the big News and expand its aggressive quantitative-easing program, introduce a two-tiered deposit system and offer cheap loans to banks. If so then expect a huge decline in the Euros currency as There is a huge imbalance in the Euro at the moment The question why are the ECB doing this well they are taking any drastic measurer to boost eurozone economy and like the ECB boss, Mario Draghi who said the central bank was “ready to do its part” to boost growth and inflation. Fading growth and inflation prospects will force the European Central Bank to review its policy stance And make a change to hellp its growth which of course is its main problem inflation prospects have turned for the worse, raising a credibility issue for a bank that has undershot inflation for three straight years. Which is a big worry So when you put all these factors in based of Fundamentals what does it mean well really nothing until draghi comes out and says it himself and launches Monetary easing or Rate cut's But if they do decide to go ahead with it expect a huge sell of :) For all EURO pairs What do i See based on Technicals ? Well a good thing that supports the sell of is we are below a key level of 1.1000 which is also a nice round number physiological Levels ;) Also after the big rally In February we have almost completely corrected ourself which many traders didn't believe would happen as many thought we would break the consolidation zone we have been stuck in after such a nice bullish move But once again with the EUR/USD price is undecided We seem to be bounce of our key level which also helps in a bias to the downside Anyways This is my view on the EurUsd trade safe guys News is very unpredictable expect the worse and i hope i didnt bore you to much lol Thanks for reading happy trading lets make some pips !
Short
by ARFXC
34
Can Gilead Beat the Markets?As of March 3rd, Gilead earned a 'buy' rating from Citigroup as verified by the link. It is true that GILD should have performed better after earnings as has been historically demonstrated, but it took a beating with the overall index but failed to share in the rebound. Personally, I think this is a good thing, for you'll note from my previous post here previous post that this is nothing but a massive short covering rally, just like we are seeing with oil The good news is that we seem to see see a nice breakout to the upside from the consolidation in terms of a bull triangle. We are not out of the woods yet, as we face resistance from the ichimoku cloud overhead and a neighboring fibonacci level at about $90.30. In fact, the level mentioned above would make a great stop buy order to enter the trade, and clearly that strong level of support at $87.22 would serve as a good stop loss. The subsequent levels after $90.30 make perfect profit targets.
NASDAQ:GILDLong
by quantguy
Massive Short Covering Rally in Oil: Trade AccordinglyThere's been a massive short covering rally of near historic proportions in oil recently. As the OPEC circus continues to 'cry wolf' regarding freezing production, the market, once overwhelmingly short on the commodity, takes the opportunity to cash out some of its short positions. There is really no fundamental reason for oil to rally so hard as the attached article cites. Further, note that the OBV does not indicate any true buying pressure that would warrant such a correction. In fact, it still demonstrates quite a bit of selling pressure, an extreme divergence with price. Further, note the bearish gartley pattern. It is not quite fully complete. But when the price hits anywhere from $40.30-$40.98 (as the pattern has been drawn to anticipate), we'll see almost perfect fulfillment of the ratios. Note further that this level happens to align with a strong fibonacci level on the fibonacci extension (if X-C is to correspond to the 50% fibonacci level). Finally, we see that the 100 period Aroon indicator still notes that we are in a long term downtrend, and the MACD looks due to change directions and head toward a crossover into negative territory. The RSI is very close to indicating overbought conditions as well, to indicate a near perfect setup for a mean reversion short in and of itself, let alone the data cited above. Look for it to retrace at least to 23.6% fibonacci level, if not to fully retrace and visit the $20 handle once again.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
SPX history This is a long term historic analysis of SPX showing the length of the bull market and its following decline. The MACD in this case is quite acurate to identify this long term tops. Following that we are already now on a long term bear market and the last top was around februrary 2015. It is not clear how long is it going to take to fully retrace as we did on the previous two cycles. The green dotted lines are traced with last two tops and they are useful to identify the present top, and following that, bottom for this cycle could be placed in Q1 2018.
SP:SPXShort
by purpurato59
4
S&P Rally Short LivedWith the tsunami of data this week, it was really hard to sieve out anything stellar. At best, we had employment data that was above expectation on Wednesday, as well as a moderately improved ISM manufacturing index. PMI and Factory Orders left much to be desired. Central Bankers all over the world are scratching their heads and trying in futility to save face against waning markets and negative interest rates that have taken Europe by storm and seem to be spreading at a clip rivaling the Zika virus. So why is S&P rallying? As Keynes himself said, "The Market Can Remain Irrational Longer Than You Can Remain Solvent". With the overtly bearish momentum this year to date, a proverbial 'dead cat bounce' was due. But that's all it is. One of the prime directives of trading is to trade with the volume not against it. This recent buying volume is still paltry with respect to the selling volume which drove the market down. Timing is everything in trading. When can we expect a turnaround? If we take a look at the chart of SPY and apply some fibonacci analysis, we see a bearish butterfly pattern foreshadowing another bearish turnaround. If you apply fibonacci time slice analysis, you see that we can probably expect this to begin as early as tomorrow or to even by market close today. The RSI seems to hint that the market is becoming overbought at this point, and we see a macd cross starting to form at 1 hour intervals. The OBV is still indicating positive pressure which indicates now is not necessarily the time to enter a short position. This is confirmed by the Aroon and ADX indicators as well. Wait for a big bear candle tomorrow or by Monday, 2016-03-07. At this point you can set a stop loss at the base of that candle and ride the trade down to the 0.5, 0.382, or 0.236 levels drawn out.
AMEX:SPYShort
by quantguy
HKDEUR descending triangleA nice descending triangle with 7 touch points. My backtesting has shown me that often the oscillations get closer as the triangle gets closer to its apex, and we see here that this behaviour is very strong. The key here will be the open of next weeks trading, where we will see whether it will break above the descending line and ruin the triangle or if the market will start in a downtrend and move towards the support line. If there is another move towards the support line I expect a break and will go short. (I am currently testing profit-taking at previous structural forms.)
Short
by olly_price
7
Short on EUR/NZD SELL SELL SELL Overall bias is Bearish -Firstly we have bounced of key level of 1.7000 -we have broke trend line based off 4 hour time frame -We had a small retest -I do believe we will break previous lows -Previous four hour candle was a bearish hammer -A lot of wicks to the upside Off the daily -We can see huge wicks to the upside on the Ket level -Yesterdays candle was a bearish engulfing -We also had a triple top so overall i am bearish on this pair All the best
Short
by ARFXC
1
Long on CHF/JPY BUY BUY BUY !!Reasons for -Long term downTrend Which has been making Lower lows And Lower HIghs And i feel like weve made a new Low at a key area and are ready for a small reversal and correction before we see any more bearish movement -We have hit two KEY trend lines and have shown support and looking like we are getting bullish momentum -As we can see by previous candle we got a bullish engulfing which signifies Momentum -Altho going long is risky as its counter trend i am willing to take the risk and enter long as technicals all play out and looks like a great time to go long to catch the correction you cold possibly wait for a retrace before going long but that for you to decide :) Also my EUR/JPY setup is exactly the same as this they both correlate so maybe split up the risk between the two or pick one of them My entry price 113.85 Remember this trade is Risky simply because its counter trend Happy Trading LOOK AT OTHER SETUP THAT SWITCHES WITH THIS :)
Long
by ARFXC
Uptrend Force Makes Breakout LikelyBitcoin has smashed back into the new "downtrend line" from ATH. This 3 day uptrend is a solid trend continuation of the previous 3 day uptrend after a nice correction down to the $360 area. At this point the uptrend has serious momentum just starting. ADX has turned up, CCI is just above 100, and MACD histogram is accelerating into positive territory while the MACD line is trending up from the 0 line. Basically we've hit this "downtrend line" with such force that it's likely to break. If you're long I would hold as long as you can to see if this breaks. If you're not in a position I would wait for the break to happen before going long. If you're short: stop shorting uptrends :D Keep in mind this 3D chart can have some volatility on the lower timeframes, so I would make sure the uptrend is clearly over before going short if this "downtrend line" proves to have any worth.
BLong
by bwy
1