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AUDCAD at a crossroad - LongThe pair is sitting below the 50 day SMA after clearing a trendline. I would like to see more action within this zone supporting a long trade considering that the zone also has a resistance level which the price broke to the downside in June. Failure to break above this level will invalidate this idea. Therefore, the 0.86xxx and 0.83xx will come into focus Fundamentally speaking, the AUD seems shielded from geopolitical impacts affecting Europe. Australia is expected to do better than other G10 countries as central banks rush to hike interest rates. In addition to this, weakness in the oil markets could lead to a weaker CAD. Oil markets are starting to price in a possibility of a global recession despite the tightness of the supply side the world is currently experiencing. Saudi Arabia has promised to increase supply into 2023 prompting oil prices to move lower Risks to this play are as follows: AUD tends to follow risk sentiment in equities. Therefore, if the equity markets reprice lower in the event of a recession, this AUD strength is going to subside. My assumption is that equity markets have already priced in a global mild recession given that as the market is considered efficient (Efficient market hypothesis states that markets are efficient i.e. have already priced in all the available information in the public domain leaving no room for investors to make excess profits) Should oil prices remain elevated for longer, i.e. the futures curve reprices higher as time moves on, the CAD will remain relatively strong. This is the biggest risk to LONG play. Should the two above risks play out at the same time - a mild recession and higher energy prices, that would possibly push the AUDCAD pair lower towards the March 2020 Low pivot level. It's important to understand the macro background in order to inform your decision on how to position for this play. However, I'm currently bullish on this pair unless risks come to fruition.
Long
by GrizzlyBearBee
The NASDAQ 100 will fall another 40% based on previous crashesI don't believe the current 32% drawdown is the end of the pain for the NASDAQ:NDX . Given the macroeconomic climate, it makes more sense to compare the major crashes of 2000 and 2008. We could even see something more severe. We can see that the current 30% or so it has fallen, does not nearly compare with the two most serious drawdowns (2000 and 2008) in either time or price. Averaging percentage drawdown for 2000 and 2008, we can expect a drawdown of around 60-70%. Averaging time from top until bottom for those two historic crashes, we can expect a drawdown length of around 700 days! That means we're very unlikely to see the bottom until the at least the end of Q1 next year, most likely Q4. The Dec 2018 low of ~6000 lines up very nicely with the historic average of the two major crashes. Dollar cost averaging in during the marked green accumulation zone is my strategy.
NASDAQ:NDXShort
by CoinrankDotApp
1
What next for EURO?Notice how POC testing is readily rejected each time and the resumption of the overall trend prevails like clockwork. This is the value of Price control and knowing where volume and liquidity in the market exists. Another hotly contested Point of Control that adhered perfectly the volume led price action of the market participants. At his stage, picking an entry wasn't the main issue - it was sizing it correctly and preparing for the next move downwards. The uptick in the Eur is seen occurring alongside explosion of yields in key EU bonds, lending catalyst to the moves. The target is the previous POC, where price action will determine the strength of the correction or if resumption downwards continues FOLLOW ME: @icymi_macro twitter
by TheHouseofTrade
Bitcoin Super CycleHere we can see the PI cycle top flashed early much like 2013 In 2013 it was April fools day when BTC started its correction BTC reached the Center point of logarithmic regression around July 1 This correction was only 3 months in length I do see a similar pattern here, If this plays out like the super cycle in 2013 then my personal targets are: Center of regression July 2021 second PI cycle top will be around oct-nov of 2021 followed by a bear market which takes BTC to 20k as the floor again shaking out most retail and making it less affordable to accumulate From there BTC will be on the journey of 1 million roughly a year after the 4th halving It's important to note 4th halving will put rewards close to PI at 3.125
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by ILL_Midas
21
MACRO Pivot PointsThis chart proves price will always return to the Macro Pivot Point. Being that we know this FACT we build our strategies and formulas around this objective institutional structure. This structure resides right above the body of the candle to the top of the wick. We also KNOW that wicks identify price action and structure. This is also an objective FACT. Therefore when we leverage the two Objective facts A. Price always returns back to the Macro PP (place where it started) B. Wicks Identify Price Action And Structure We can build very strong objective high probability set ups and entries that will extract as many pips out of the market as the move will give us. This is where I build my Signature Trade Entry called the MET (Mount Everest Trade) Time is the most valuable asset in life and in Forex Trading. When you know the time your asset moves you can begin to PIN POINT down to the second what your asset will do. There are objective times and patterns Snipers KNOW like the back of our hands that enable us to engage the market objectively.
by Master-Jedi-Trader
Blockware Intelligence NewsletterBlockware Intelligence Newsletter Summary (for week 7/4 - 7/8): The equity indexes have seen a strong bounce this week, much of which has stemmed from short-covering as we can see with QQQ’s Aggregate Short-Interest. While it’s certainly possible that this is the market’s bottom, there are a few areas close overhead that could turn into resistance in the coming sessions. Fixed-income securities began to sell off again this week and the 2/10Y yield spread flipped negative for the second time in 2022. The Atlanta Fed has continued to lower their Q2 GDP estimate and it now sits at -1.9%. As discussed last week, unemployment data does not back the thesis that the US is currently in a recession. Bitcoin is 31 days into a miner capitulation according to the hash ribbon metric. The end of a miner capitulation historically marks a bear market bottom. Updated: Miner Network Breakeven Distribution Table and Chart Mining difficulty is trending down, but not at the same pace as the China mining ban which was unprecedented.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by BlockwareSolutions
5
Factors currently influencing the CHF and opportunitiesThe Swiss Franc has seen some crazy moves since April. In the last quarter, we saw the CHF weaken on the onset of the Russian invasion. Then the SNB raised rates by whooping 50 bps for the first time in years. This led the Swiss government bond yields to spike with USDCHF weakened in days. Since then, speculators have pulled back rate hike bets in the face of an economic growth slowdown in Europe. with the Swiss 2 year bond yields back below 0%. So what does this mean for Swiss Franc crosses? USDCHF I expect the currency to weaken against the USD as traders bet that the Fed will maintain their tightening policy until inflation is below their 2% target. AUDCHF The RBA is also on a tightening cycle with the RBA expected to hike rates further to the end of 2022. In addition to this, the Australian economy seems to be resilient with data coming out of the country being strong. China's PBOC and CCP support for the economy is expected to provide support for the Aussie. CADCHF The oil linked Loonie is having support from higher energy prices and a BoC that is also on a rate hiking cycle. Technically speaking, the pair has gone back above the 100Day moving average and I expect it to test the cluster resistance level 0.769xx from 2014-2019 Other pairs that are interesting are: CHFJPY Major risk to short-selling the pair is that bond yield differentials are expected to remain high hence JPY strength looks like a long shot for Q3 NZDJPY Recovery of the Chinese economy is going to support the commodity-linked Kiwi. However, strength of the pair is not expected to be higher than that of the AUDCHF Summary CHF weakness brings a lot of opportunities. However, it's important to note that tailrisk to these trades exist. In the current environment, FX volatility is high and could wipe you out. Be safe out there
Long
by GrizzlyBearBee
3
JICPT| recession fear weighed on markets!Hello everyone. US 10Y yield has been up by a lot since middle of last year due to inflation issues. US oil posted incredible performance due to supply issues caused by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Now, both of them fell a lot today. I also noted gold also dipped. Only dollar is rising today. I've been through this several times in the past few years. When everything drops, except the dollar index, investors are concerned about the future growth. The main driver of the market has shifted from the war and inflation to the economy growth. According to the dot plot, the median year-end projection for the federal funds rate moved up to 3.4%. That's way much higher than previous projection. I remembered a model suggested a possible 40% drop from the high created last year. Before the inflation got controlled, market will be under pressure due to series of rate hikes. I guess the peak will be around September. The more Fed raises the target rate, the more room it can reduce to spur the economy in the future .
TVC:US10Y
by JICPT
BTCUSD weekly (06/07/2022)Today we are going to see the extended triangle model that is forming the price of the BTC /USD pair in weekly candlesticks, below of the pattern we have left the acclaimed 200-period moving average (200MA), one of the most important resistence on the bitcoin cycles, we are below that resistence but only temporary. RSI in addition touches on the relative outside lows (oversold). Last cycle ATH is making furthermore a Buying level. A possible trend change is coming around that leves in the next weeks/months. Remember that it's very important to have liquidity for these macro-scale price action zones. I hope that this analysis will be of great help to those who doubt about entries in these areas ;D
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AVNGL01
Third Time is a Charm: Chinese New Year: Yatsen Retail$YSG has been down only for its existence (i got fleeced badly in the first few post IPO months) fundamentals vs share price are converging toward a point of must-buy China and Chinese ADRs are always known to be massive risk - because many Chinese frauds are in the history book IF this turns out not to be a fraud, Rather it turns out to be the NIO Motors of Retail MakeUp and lifestyle branding THEN this becomes an easy 4 bagger and potentially a 20 bagger in the next few years.
NYSE:YSGLong
by noam_chom
AUDJPY breaks 50 Day Moving averageThe pair has been pivoting to reverse May - June gains. The pair has been printing lower highs forming a descending triangle. A confirmation of the break on the daily timeframe will warrant a short-sale. Fundamentally, the AUD is struggling in the face of a global economic slowdown. The currency, a bellwether for global risk sentiment, weakened after the RBA raised rates further to 1.35%. The commodity linked currency is falling as commodities prices dip in the face of a possible global recession. The JPY safe-haven properties are starting to show up following risk-off sentiments as traders weigh in on recessionary fears making this the ideal pair to trade for the rest of the year. Risks to this trade remain in the back of my mind. Australia, as opposed to other major economies, is doing a lot better. China's recovery could support the currency. Further inflationary economic releases could push global bond yield higher lifting the interest rate differentials the therefore the the pair. Trade with caution
Short
by GrizzlyBearBee
Interesting Bottoming Fractal for BTCBitcoin has seen a nasty capitulation candle down to the 55 Monthly EMA / 0.618 macro Fibonacci level from its all-time highs and has since bounced to the 30k region. Given the rapid selloff, I firmly believe that we are now closer to a bottom than a top. The most bearish calls and technical analysis that I have seen (barring zero), are the 12k calls, 200Week moving average call (currently 22k or the 55 monthly ema bottom call at 24.5k). There is a possibility of a bullish relief rally continuing should the NASDAQ continue to show strength and the dollar continue to weaken. However, Bitcoin remains in a bear market until we break the 200 Day moving average / 50 Week moving average and hold it as support. In the bearish case, I am sharing an interesting fractal that would suggest that the majority of the downside move towards the bottom could be In and how we could arrive at the 200 Week Moving average, which has marked the bottom on the past three big bear market selloff. Not financial advice. Note, that this is only one of many scenarios that I am currently evaluating that could play out.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TraderHalai
MACRO bearish thesis semiconductorsHey all, I wanted to share my thoughts with you guys regarding semiconductors as that was one of the sectors people were most bullish on back when the market seemingly could only go up. That is no longer the case. If you look at names like AMAT and TSM, the distribution on semiconductors is in the past, and now we are in the markdown phase(A lot of false breakouts and Wyckoff distribution looks across the board). Semiconductors are very cyclical stocks and are still relatively overvalued compared to the rest of the market. I am actually quite bullish on semiconductors over the short term and fundamentally, but I do anticipate names in the industry to resolve lower and rallies to be faded. As a bear, I would wait to short significant rallies- watch the next few weeks as I think semis are going to rally in July.
NASDAQ:SMH
by MichaelEugen1
1
Buffet Indicator insightsDespite the recent downturn in the equity market, the Total Market Cap over GDP - also known as Buffet Indicator - clearly shows that there still might be a significant market crash ahead. Assuming the market will reach the " Fairly valued " territory, it means that a further 25% decline is to be expected. Assuming instead that the market will ultimately become " Significantly Undervalued " - as it happened after both most recent market crashes (except after COVID due to the massive Fed intervention) - we should expect a further 50% decline.
FRED:WILL5000PRFC
by a.b
BTC: Don't DCA YetMacro conditions couldn’t be any worse. Starting this month, the Fed unleashed its quantitative tightening (QT) plans, trimming the $9trillion balance sheet at an unprecedented scale (current run-off cap: $47.5bn/month initial; $95bn/month 3 month later; 2017 run-off: max $50bn/month). The last two quantitative tightening led to a sharp rise in yields in 2013 and a repo crisis in 2019 respectively. Unfortunately, this time around, the Fed has to deal with a much larger balance sheet and all-time high inflation rate since 1982. Without the ability to print real world supply of goods and services (factories, natural resources), the Fed has lever on the demand side, but lowering demand means hikes in unemployment (which the Fed is already targeting). With a 7% gap between short-term rate and inflation rate, can the Fed “just rise unemployment a little bit” without causing a recession? Extremely hard unless real world supply of goods and services picks up. For us crypto traders and investors, the question is - isn’t bitcoin an inflation hedge, and if global market enters a recession, wouldn’t bitcoin be the risk-off asset of choice? My take on this is not in this cycle. Bitcoin has not experienced a proper traditional finance bear market yet and has performed poorly during past tapering and quantitative tightening environments. Different phases of quantitative easing, tapering, and quantitative tightening are marked on the chart above. After three rounds of quantitative easing from 2010, the start of tapering in 2014 marked the beginning of bitcoin’s 2-year bear market. In 2017, quantitative tightening started in October, and the 2018 crypto crash soon followed. In other words, bitcoin’s inflation hedge narrative hasn’t been officially tested or widely accepted. With arbitrage opportunities, scams, hack risks, and run-on-bank fear, the crypto market is no doubt in its early stage. While superior security and scarcity give bitcoin the potential to replace gold in a new era of currency, early-stage demand side volatility makes bitcoin subject to wild price swings. The current reality is we see rising correlation between bitcoin and the equity market year after year, and the volatility is further heightened by the derivative market. In the current cycle, bitcoin’s inflation hedge value is overpowered by its volatility, and it is hard for bitcoin to rally under gloomy global macro conditions before the market matures and stabilizes. Do you agree? What’s your take on crypto under the current global macro? Support and comment below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
18