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Macro

Interesting Bottoming Fractal for BTCBitcoin has seen a nasty capitulation candle down to the 55 Monthly EMA / 0.618 macro Fibonacci level from its all-time highs and has since bounced to the 30k region. Given the rapid selloff, I firmly believe that we are now closer to a bottom than a top. The most bearish calls and technical analysis that I have seen (barring zero), are the 12k calls, 200Week moving average call (currently 22k or the 55 monthly ema bottom call at 24.5k). There is a possibility of a bullish relief rally continuing should the NASDAQ continue to show strength and the dollar continue to weaken. However, Bitcoin remains in a bear market until we break the 200 Day moving average / 50 Week moving average and hold it as support. In the bearish case, I am sharing an interesting fractal that would suggest that the majority of the downside move towards the bottom could be In and how we could arrive at the 200 Week Moving average, which has marked the bottom on the past three big bear market selloff. Not financial advice. Note, that this is only one of many scenarios that I am currently evaluating that could play out.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by TraderHalai
MACRO bearish thesis semiconductorsHey all, I wanted to share my thoughts with you guys regarding semiconductors as that was one of the sectors people were most bullish on back when the market seemingly could only go up. That is no longer the case. If you look at names like AMAT and TSM, the distribution on semiconductors is in the past, and now we are in the markdown phase(A lot of false breakouts and Wyckoff distribution looks across the board). Semiconductors are very cyclical stocks and are still relatively overvalued compared to the rest of the market. I am actually quite bullish on semiconductors over the short term and fundamentally, but I do anticipate names in the industry to resolve lower and rallies to be faded. As a bear, I would wait to short significant rallies- watch the next few weeks as I think semis are going to rally in July.
NASDAQ:SMH
by MichaelEugen1
1
Buffet Indicator insightsDespite the recent downturn in the equity market, the Total Market Cap over GDP - also known as Buffet Indicator - clearly shows that there still might be a significant market crash ahead. Assuming the market will reach the " Fairly valued " territory, it means that a further 25% decline is to be expected. Assuming instead that the market will ultimately become " Significantly Undervalued " - as it happened after both most recent market crashes (except after COVID due to the massive Fed intervention) - we should expect a further 50% decline.
FRED:WILL5000PRFC
by a.b
BTC: Don't DCA YetMacro conditions couldn’t be any worse. Starting this month, the Fed unleashed its quantitative tightening (QT) plans, trimming the $9trillion balance sheet at an unprecedented scale (current run-off cap: $47.5bn/month initial; $95bn/month 3 month later; 2017 run-off: max $50bn/month). The last two quantitative tightening led to a sharp rise in yields in 2013 and a repo crisis in 2019 respectively. Unfortunately, this time around, the Fed has to deal with a much larger balance sheet and all-time high inflation rate since 1982. Without the ability to print real world supply of goods and services (factories, natural resources), the Fed has lever on the demand side, but lowering demand means hikes in unemployment (which the Fed is already targeting). With a 7% gap between short-term rate and inflation rate, can the Fed “just rise unemployment a little bit” without causing a recession? Extremely hard unless real world supply of goods and services picks up. For us crypto traders and investors, the question is - isn’t bitcoin an inflation hedge, and if global market enters a recession, wouldn’t bitcoin be the risk-off asset of choice? My take on this is not in this cycle. Bitcoin has not experienced a proper traditional finance bear market yet and has performed poorly during past tapering and quantitative tightening environments. Different phases of quantitative easing, tapering, and quantitative tightening are marked on the chart above. After three rounds of quantitative easing from 2010, the start of tapering in 2014 marked the beginning of bitcoin’s 2-year bear market. In 2017, quantitative tightening started in October, and the 2018 crypto crash soon followed. In other words, bitcoin’s inflation hedge narrative hasn’t been officially tested or widely accepted. With arbitrage opportunities, scams, hack risks, and run-on-bank fear, the crypto market is no doubt in its early stage. While superior security and scarcity give bitcoin the potential to replace gold in a new era of currency, early-stage demand side volatility makes bitcoin subject to wild price swings. The current reality is we see rising correlation between bitcoin and the equity market year after year, and the volatility is further heightened by the derivative market. In the current cycle, bitcoin’s inflation hedge value is overpowered by its volatility, and it is hard for bitcoin to rally under gloomy global macro conditions before the market matures and stabilizes. Do you agree? What’s your take on crypto under the current global macro? Support and comment below!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Phi-Deltalytics
18
Gold Set For A Big MoveGold has been coiling nicely for more than a couple months now. The Inside Month we're currently forming, along with an Expanding Weekly Structure, suggest Gold has a "large" move incoming. Question is, will it be back to a 2k handle....Or down to 1.6xx....? I think this largely depends on how much uncertainty and Global Liquidity Tightening continues to occur. If we see sentiment rise, and risk on behavior begin to rise.....Gold will likely take that lower path. If we see sentiment continue to remain low, and a risk off posture in markets, I believe we see Gold > 2k. Watch for the Shakeouts at either end of our $1800-1880 Range. If it can't hold above for at least a couple days, or doesn't break with really large volume/conviction, I'd be careful. Global Macro Environment rules ALL. Rules equities, Rules gold, Rules Bonds...... Watch credit spreads, Watch the 10yr yield....Cracks show there early on.. As always, good luck, have fun, and practice solid Risk Management!!
OANDA:XAUUSD
by mrjones2020
Making Sense of the Chaos and Recognizing CyclesHey everyone! Due to the recent financial sell offs, I've seen many panic and even claim "an end to financial markets". In fact, I understand their concerns. However, many of these individuals are newbs or have not taken a close look at the history of the asset(s) they hold. This is exactly why I have chose to begin posting again and would like to explore the long term history of a few assets and asset classes in an effort to calm any anxiety in others that I can. I will be focusing on historical market corrections. Nothing of what I say or demonstrate is individualized financial advice to any degree. I am a speculator. You should not place trades based upon my analysis. You should not listen to a word I say. This is for pure entertainment value only and any losses you take is because you took that risk yourself. I am not liable for your actions. Ok, let's do this! A very long term look at SPX shows a volatile ride. The chart you see is a monthly log chart compressed to demonstrate as much of SPX as possible. As you can see there are many ups and downs. The data provided dates back all the way to the 1870s. So, this is where I will begin. I will be adding pictures and details about the pictures in the updates or comments sections. It's been a while since I posted, please, be patient with me.
SP:SPX
by BACapitalManagement
BTCUSD weekly (18/06/2022)(Compendium of Ideas) Macroeconomic analysis of Bitcoin with different tools and perspectives: -Increasing and decreasing cycles (HALVING and accumulations) together with (angle and percentage of yield) -Relative Strength (RSI) -Temporality (W) -Volume (Increasing or Ascending in general) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Compendio de Ideas) Análisis macroeconómico de Bitcoin con diferentes herramientas y perspectivas: -Ciclos crecientes y decrecientes (HALVING y acumulaciones) junto a (ángulo y porcentaje de rendimiento) -Fuerza relativa (RSI) -Temporalidad (W) o (semanal) -Volumen (Creciente o Ascendente en carácter general)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by AVNGL01
Macro & Nasdaq So indicators like RSI and MACD are showing that CME_MINI:NQ1! is getting to the oversold level (On monthly timeframe RSI we are at -30). So are we ready for a bounce? The technicals are hinting at "YES" but the macro fundaments... are saying "NO" The Fed admitted yesterday that it is behind he curve on the inflation. The Swiss Central Bank and EBC showed concern thru their actions. Greg Jensen at Bridgewater said this morning on Bloomberg that equities might have another 20% down before the market settles. My view is that 1. we should expect a relief rally shortly 2. the bear market will continue until a. the earnings and multiples come down significantly for the stocks b. unemployment starts to rise c. Fed finishes rates hikes and inflation starts to slow down d. capitulation eventually takes place with Vix reaching >40 The next support lines for Nasdaq 100 might be around 11k, 9.5k, 8k, 6.6k.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by xrischosser
The Bear Case for Bitcoin - likely to test 20k this yearBitcoin remains rather bearish as the current price stays below the bull market support band (20w MA and 21w EMA). It has broken the support levels in Jan/Jun,Jul 2021 and is likely to go down from here, possibly test the 20k level in the next few months. A trend reversal would require Bitcoin to break the resistance levels (orange) and get above the bull market support band, unlikely to happen in the short term. Given the current macroeconomic volatility and geopolitical instability, Bitcoin is still viewed as a volatile asset and is losing its narrative as the hedge against inflation. There is also increasing correlation with the SP500 and Nasdaq100 since end 2020 so investors and speculators are less likely to buy BTC - trading volume this year has been lower than most months of 2020 and 2021. Investors this year also do not have the free government money anymore. The recent Terra crash would also fuel the FUD and invite more central bank regulations on cryptos. There is definitely more downside to crypto and Bitcoin for the rest of 2022.
Short
by icypopsicle
BTC Could Drop On Macro Capitulation (Elliott Wave)So far the bounce off of what I had previously marked wave-c has been very weak and given no confirmation that wave-c is completed. That means wave-c is likely going to take longer and go lower. The later time target for wave-c is around the middle of June and it will probably go as low 30k-22k. This will likely be accompanied by a global macro correction as interest rates increase and the bond market continues its collapse. After this capitulation wave I suspect we'll see a quick recovery back to around the previous all time highs.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by Intuit
5
JPY/USD Breaking Down the Macro Range: ObservationsJPY/USD: It’s not often that a macro breakdown of this magnitude presents itself, but Dollar/Yen is providing the opportunity to monitor and learn from just such a breakdown in real time. One of the more interesting mysteries of the last two decades has been the durability of the JPY. · Years of extremely accommodative monetary policy, Negative Interest Rate Policy (NIRP), Yield Curve Control (YCC) and Quantitative Easing (QE) have thoroughly disrupted fair value across JPY asset classes. · Government Debt at 266% of GDP is more than double the threshold above which countries are vulnerable to sovereign default. For more on sovereign debt levels see Reinhart and Rogoff “This Time is Different, Eight Centuries of Financial Folly.” A must read in my opinion. · They are an island nation devoid of energy assets. Higher energy prices increase the need for to swap Yen for Dollars in order to transact. While monetary policy has created the greatest macro danger, growing yield differentials and rising oil prices represent more immediate concerns. In particular, the YCC policy that pins Japanese 10 year rates at 25 bps even as rates are rising sharply across the rest of the developed markets is creating massive capital outflows. The YCC policy creates an arbitrage between Japanese and other DM rates. · A Japanese citizen can swap JPY for DX and buy a 10 year US Treasury at +300 bps carry advantage. · While collecting 300 bps in positive carry they own a currency (DX) far less likely to depreciate. Particularly as the Fed is tightening policy relative to the BOJ. · If DX appreciates, they can add the appreciation to the carry. This same dynamic can also be seen in institutional flows. With the yield differential so wide, the Yen Carry trade popular prior to the financial crisis is being implemented again. Investors can borrow Yen at very low rates, swap for higher yielding currencies and earn the carry. Many of us old guys remember the extreme pain generated by the unwind of this trade. This arbitrage results in significant outward bound capital flows but in spite of the Yen weakness the BOJ continues to reiterate its support of the YCC program. It should also be remembered that the BOJ and other official Japanese institutions have acquired so much of Japan’s sovereign float, that even if they lose their resolve and end YCC, rates probably won't rise enough to totally offset the rate differential. I suspect that a rally with this as a fundamental catalyst, while violent, would likely fail long before reversing the recent damage. Importantly the fundamental pressures add weight to the technical breakdown occurring on longer time frame charts. · JPY/USD is breaking out of a wide, upwardly slanting channel that has acted as support for over 30 years. · After testing the bottom of the channel, the market was unable to attract buyers and moved mostly laterally along the channel bottom. This lethargic behavior suggested a near complete lack of buying pressure/interest. · The six years spent moving laterally stored tremendous energy. Remember that the more time spent in a range, the more potential for movement exists. In essence, six years of buyers are now trapped. I would expect that these trapped buyers will now be sellers into strength and drive declines. · Wyckoff called this stored energy “cause” or count. The size of the count directly relates to the size of subsequent move as it reflects years of positioning, much of which must be adjusted for a new price regime. · While I haven’t done so for this piece, Point and Figure counts can be used to derive targets based on the width of the count. You can see an example of how this is done on the IWM post linked below. · The width of the channel (MM1 - MM2) can be projected lower (MM3) to arrive at an initial estimate of the potential move. This could create a measured move target as low as .003. · There is a monthly perspective MACD sell signal. The solid sell signal comes after multiple years of what I think of as flutter (I think George Lane first used the term to describe the behavior in his stochastic oscillator). · Following periods of oscillator flutter, a clear oscillator buy/sell signal coupled with a clear violation of price support/resistance can be extremely reliable. In shorter term perspectives the market would normally be considered oversold (both price and momentum). But breakouts from large macro ranges attract strong handed sellers and often oscillators and price both behave differently than they do in normal markets. This is particularly true in the early in the move. Specifically, oscillator readings become meaningless and short term price targets are regularly exceeded. This makes them extremely difficult and risky to trade in. At this point, to turn bullish on JYPD will require the development of overtly bullish price and volume behaviors or clear bottoming behaviors. Until then I will treat this as a bear market and use strategies and tactics appropriate for that environment. Good Trading: Stewart Taylor, CMT Chartered Market Technician Shared content and posted charts are intended to be used for informational and educational purposes only. The CMT Association does not offer, and this information shall not be understood or construed as, financial advice or investment recommendations. The information provided is not a substitute for advice from an investment professional. The CMT Association does not accept liability for any financial loss or damage our audience may incur.
Education
by CMT_Association
30
Check this out... BTC ANALYSIS High-timeframe (HTF) Technical Analysis -Breaker order block and imbalance (supply) are below the current BTC price and need to be tapped -THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THIS DIP IS THE UPTHRUST AFTER DISTRIBUTION (UTAD) IN THE HTF WYCOFF CYCLE WHICH IS SORT OF FORMING (there was a weak automatic reaction after the selling climax and no prices were tested even close to the first major low until now) -The trading range (represented by the white zone w/ midline) was mainly selling in the discount area (where accumulation would happen until there was a fake-out which acted as the last point of supply (LPSY) HTF MACRO -Although consumer spending and employment are doing well, interest rates are about to go through the roof. The supply chain issues have dampened the profits of businesses as it's causing higher costs; stagflation is also a possibility with inflation combined with a slowing economy -European and Chinese economic issues would also push selling pressure higher for BTC LOW TIME FRAME (LTF) Technical Analysis -Low-timeframe demand needs to be tapped above before continuing that far down -The point of interest is both of the purple zones which I have created using the VPSV and volume to identify where important demand zones are. LET ME KNOW IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS
KRAKEN:BTCUSD
by trevorweakland
Waiting for the S&P 500 to find a directional biasThe S&P 500 is well off its worst levels of the year, and while it is possible this is a recovery bounce before another leg lower there appears to be more upside first. But traders will want to be careful not to chase this move higher, rather use volatility to their advantage. The thinking is it could just be corrective, and at some point the market will swoon again. With that in mind, trading the volatility with a short-term directional bias seems to make the most sense. On the upside, this means looking to jabs lower that start to lose selling momentum as potential opportunities to establish short-term long positions.
AMEX:SPY
by UnknownUnicorn38289576
HOW LOW, CAN WE GO! HOW LOW, CAN WE GO! (TOTAL2 VERSION)If I had to guess, the crypto market minus BTC still has ~10% of bleeding left to do before it hits previous support. Forgot to check but that's like a few billion at least. Breakdown & bear retest of 200 on 3D supports this idea Breakdown into oversold RSI on 3D indicates we may see a bounce soon - but it could also get stuck down there for a while while we continue down. I think the admirable performance of ETH is the only thing keeping this afloat right now, and will be the only reason this *doesn't* play out, if it catches support sooner. Anyone buying ETH around these levels will look like a genius a year or so from now... happy trades, always ~ CD
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL2
by cryptodonovan
Irrational market is about to endXETR:DAX The macro condition is continuously deteriorating. Record braking inflation across the Euro Area, worsening supply chain issues, declining PMIs and lower consumer confidence. It's a non-stop barrage of negative news. Surprisingly enough, though, the indices have been having a great time. But the last ray of light is about to be clouded with the ECB meeting looming this week. DAX is about to experience its first significant decline after a couple of weeks of resilient pumping. As for technical analysis, we can observe a pretty clear double top forming at the ~14600 level, lowering volume and an exhaustion candle today - all pointing towards a reversal. Be wary of another low volume pump tomorrow but overall, expect a red weekly candle.
XETR:DAXShort
by hidelord
Look for DXY to be range bound The US Dollar’s descent moderated last week as traders shifted back into risk assets, ditching the safety of the world’s reserve currency. Still, measured by the DXY Index, the Greenback remains well above levels traded at just a couple of months ago. A pullback in recession fears appeared to be the main driver of weakness. Given the precarious global economic backdrop, those fears may resurface without warning. That said, the risk-taking seen last week is on shaky ground.
TVC:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn38289576
Cardano (ADA) - The Road To The Bottom ($.18) and Beyond! Daily Macro Update Below: Cardano and the Market CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D Headwinds to take into consideration BEFORE investing in what they identify as risk on assets: 06/03 - (Updated Macro View) JOBS REPORT - Est 325K / Actual 390,000 Continued USD Dominance! - TVC:DXY - (102.18) Upward momentum since 07/2021 (from 89.47 - 103.57) OIL - Continued Upward momentum - NYMEX:CL1! Historic - www.macrotrends.net State Gas Prices - UP UP and AWAY ( $4.761 per gallon) - gasprices.aaa.com FED TALK - Mester says inflation hasn't peaked, MULTIPLE half-point rate hikes are needed - www.cnbc.com 06/02 - (Updated Macro View) Jamie Dimon's Hurricane Comment: www.cnbc.com (People should take not coming from Jamie, potential significant heads up) Latest ISM Report (May 2022) BULLISH OUTLOOK: Anything above 50% is considered growth Manufacturing PMI - 56.1% - www.ismworld.org Services PMI - 55.9% - www.ismworld.org Hospital PMI - 56.3% - www.ismworld.org April Jobless Claims in at 200K (Extremely low) : Ukraine War Crude Prices: Macrotrends Covid / Monkey Pox / Viral flavor of the month (Fear Tactics) Supply Chain Challenges Manufactured slowdowns of goods...for example China closing key manufacturing plants in an attempt to retain pricing power. Continued FALLING YEN! (Danger Zone) BTC CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D .D Dominance! (46.93% Currently) Up from 39.26% in Jan 2022 Housing: Who would have EVER thought the CURE of the housing shortage was higher interest rates. By some sort of miracle, there's no longer a shortage! www.thetitlereport.com *** CAUTION *** There are significant CRACKS in housing, especially in those areas that enjoyed MASSIVE double-digit gains in most recent years. Looking for WALL ST corps to dump asset inventories so as to not carry negative appreciative assets on their balance sheets. 1 out of 5 homes on the market currently has price reductions already. Look for significant additions of inventory VERY soon as even more people are priced out and corporate landlords like BlackRock will be looking to offset their portfolios not gain. The FED also looking to sell MBS (Mortgage Backed Securities) instead of buying them, will force lenders to keep more mortgages on their balance sheets (They are already adjusting for tightening lending requirements. REFI markets with even higher interest rates are almost completely DEAD. Mortgage companies have already begun restructuring (layoffs) of many mortgage personnel. Looking for a 40-50% reduction in housing prices (Generally speaking, go back to 2016 / 2017 and add 5% to those sales prices and that will provide realistic guidance of where the housing prices will retrace to. ALL of the above is strictly entertainment and not financial advice. ;-) GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!
COINBASE:ADAUSD
by Askatec
8