cl1 - oil TA outlook for 2022Oil has been red hot since the pandemic - many ask if they are late, and I do not think so.
Reasons why I am bullish oil -
Ecomm - shipping and freight are going to have to adapt to keep up w pace of adoption and need for quick deliveries. Primary source of transport across the oceans is still tankers.
Underinvestment in hydrocarbons - we are not ready for this new world that politicians love - unfortunately for mother earth we are still very much dependent on fossil fuels
Russia & China on offense, tensions around globe.
I think we see the trend on the left hand side test the high of 133 before YE and I expect we blow through the 103.19 a barrel by June - if we dont have a long winter... 84.71 shuold hold as resistance
Macro
GBP/JPY Outlook (17 February 2022)Overall, GBP/JPY is ranging across. Recently, GBP/JPY bounced down from the key level of 157.
The UK CPI y/y data (Actual: 5.5%, Forecast: 5.4%, Previous: 5.4%) released yesterday indicated continued rise in inflation at a faster pace in January.
GBP/JPY’s next support zone is at 156.000 and the next resistance zone is at 158.000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/JPY only if it trades above the key level of 157.
GBP/USD Outlook (17 February 2022)Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across. Recently, GBP/USD traded into the resistance zone of 1.36000.
The UK CPI y/y data (Actual: 5.5%, Forecast: 5.4%, Previous: 5.4%) released yesterday indicated continued rise in inflation at a faster pace in January.
Currently, GBP/USD is testing the resistance zone of 1.36000 and the next support zone is at 1.33800.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/USD if it breaks the resistance zone of 1.36000.
AUD/USD Outlook (17 February 2022)Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across.
The Australian employment data will be released later at 0830 (GMT+8).
- Employment Change (Forecast: 0.0K, Previous: 64.8K)
- Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2%)
Currently, AUD/USD is testing to break above the key level of 0.72. Its next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of AUD/USD if it breaks above the key level of 0.72.
USD/CAD Outlook (17 February 2022)Overall, USD/CAD is ranging across. Recently, USD/CAD broke below the key level of 1.27.
The Canadian CPI m/m data (Actual: 0.9%, Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: -0.1%) released yesterday indicated a strong rise in inflation in January.
USD/CAD’s next support zone is at 1.26100 and its next resistance zone is at 1.29200.
Look for short-term selling opportunities of USD/CAD.
USD Overview (17 February 2022)Yesterday, USD weakened against all major currencies.
The retail sales m/m data will be released yesterday indicated a recovery in consumer spending in January.
- Core Retail Sales m/m (Actual: 3.3%, Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: -2.8% revised from -2.3%)
- Retail Sales m/m (Actual: 3.8%, Forecast: 2.1%, Previous: -2.5% revised from -1.9%)
In the released meeting minutes, the FOMC highlighted that if inflation does not fall as they expect, it will be appropriate for the committee to remove policy accommodation at a faster pace.
GBP/JPY Outlook (16 February 2022)Overall, GBP/JPY is ranging across. Recently, GBP/JPY bounced off the support zone of 156.000.
The UK employment data released yesterday indicated continued decline in the number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in February. Meanwhile, average earnings rose while unemployment rate remained unchanged.
Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 4.3%, Forecast: 3.8%, Previous: 4.2%)
Claimant Count Change (Actual: -31.9K, Forecast: -36.2K, Previous: -43.3K)
Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.1%Forecast: 4.1\%, Previous: 4.1%)
The UK CPI y/y data (Forecast: 5.4%, Previous: 5.4%) will be released later at 1500 (GMT+8).
GBP/JPY’s next support zone is at 156.000 and the next resistance zone is at 158.000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/JPY.
GBP/USD Outlook (16 February 2022)Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across. Recently, GBP/USD bounced up from the key level of 1.35.
The UK employment data released yesterday indicated continued decline in the number of people claiming for unemployment benefits in February. Meanwhile, average earnings rose while unemployment rate remained unchanged.
Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Actual: 4.3%, Forecast: 3.8%, Previous: 4.2%)
Claimant Count Change (Actual: -31.9K, Forecast: -36.2K, Previous: -43.3K)
Unemployment Rate (Actual: 4.1%Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%)
The UK CPI y/y data (Forecast: 5.4%, Previous: 5.4%) will be released later at 1500 (GMT+8).
GBP/USD’s next support zone is at 1.33800 and the next resistance zone is at 1.36000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/USD.
EUR/JPY Outlook (16 February 2022)Overall, EUR/JPY is ranging across. Recently, EUR/JPY traded into the resistance zone of 131.500.
The eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment data (Actual: 48.6, Forecast: 54.4, Previous: 49.4) released yesterday indicated a further decline in the surveyed investors and analysts’ sentiment on the economic outlook for eurozone.
The eurozone flash employment change q/q data released yesterday indicated a slowdown in the number of jobs added into the eurozone economy during the fourth quarter of 2021. The flash GDP q/q data released showed continued expansion in the eurozone economy at the same pace.
Flash employment change q/q (Actual: 0.5%, Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)
Flash GDP q/q (Actual: 0.3%, Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%)
Currently, EUR/JPY is testing the resistance zone of 131.500 and the next support zone is at 130.000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/JPY if it breaks the resistance zone of 131.500.
EUR/USD Outlook (16 February 2022)Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across.
The eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment data (Actual: 48.6, Forecast: 54.4, Previous: 49.4) released yesterday indicated a further decline in the surveyed investors and analysts’ sentiment on the economic outlook for eurozone.
The eurozone flash employment change q/q data released yesterday indicated a slowdown in the number of jobs added into the eurozone economy during the fourth quarter of 2021. The flash GDP q/q data released showed continued expansion in the eurozone economy at the same pace.
Flash employment change q/q (Actual: 0.5%, Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 1.0% revised from 0.9%)
Flash GDP q/q (Actual: 0.3%, Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%)
Currently, EUR/USD is trading towards the resistance zone of 1.13800 and the next support zone is at 1.12000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/USD only if it breaks the resistance zone of 1.13800.
AUD/USD Outlook (16 February 2022)Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across.
The Australian employment data will be released tomorrow at 0830 (GMT+8).
Employment Change (Forecast: 0.0K, Previous: 64.8K)
Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.2%, Previous: 4.2%)
AUD/USD’s next support zone is at 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of AUD/USD.
USD/CAD Outlook (16 February 2022)Overall, USD/CAD is ranging across. Recently, USD/CAD bounced up from the key level of 1.27.
The Canadian Housing Starts data (Actual: 231K, Forecast: 253K, Previous: 238K revised from 236K) released yesterday indicated that new residential building that began construction continues to increase in January.
The Canadian CPI m/m data (Forecast: 0.6%, Previous: -0.1%) will be released later at 2130 (GMT+8).
Bank of Canada committee member Lane will be speaking tomorrow at 0230 (GMT+8). During this time, there may be volatility in CAD.
USD/CAD’s next support zone is at 1.26100 and its next resistance zone is at 1.29200.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of USD/CAD.
USD Overview (16 February 2022)Yesterday, USD weakened against most major currencies except JPY and CHF.
The PPI m/m data released yesterday indicated a strong rise in the prices of goods and services sold by producers in January.
PPI m/m (Actual: 1.0%, Forecast: 0.5%, Previous: 0.2%)
Core PPI m/m (Actual: 0.8%, Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.5%)
The retail sales m/m data will be released later at 2130 (GMT+8).
Core Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: -2.3%)
Retail Sales m/m (Forecast: 2.1%, Previous: -1.9%)
The FOMC will be releasing the minutes for the recent monetary policy meeting tomorrow at 0300 (GMT+8).
GBP/JPY Outlook (15 February 2022)Overall, GBP/JPY is ranging across.
The UK employment data will be released later at 1500 (GMT+8).
Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Forecast: 3.8%, Previous: 4.2%)
Claimant Count Change (Forecast: -36.2K, Previous: -43.3K)
Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%)
Currently, GBP/JPY is testing the support zone of 156.000 and the next resistance zone is at 158.000.
Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/JPY if it breaks the support zone of 156.000.
GBP/USD Outlook (15 February 2022)Overall, GBP/USD is ranging across. Recently, GBP/USD bounced up from the key level of 1.35.
The UK employment data will be released later at 1500 (GMT+8).
Average Earnings Index 3m/y (Forecast: 3.8%, Previous: 4.2%)
Claimant Count Change (Forecast: -36.2K, Previous: -43.3K)
Unemployment Rate (Forecast: 4.1%, Previous: 4.1%)
GBP/USD’s next support zone is at 1.33800 and the next resistance zone is at 1.36000.
Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/USD.
EUR/JPY Outlook (15 February 2022)Overall, EUR/JPY is ranging across. Recently, EUR/JPY bounced off the support zone of 130.000.
The eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment data (Forecast: 54.4, Previous: 49.4) will be released later at 1800 (GMT+8).
Also, the eurozone flash employment change q/q and flash GDP q/q data will be released later at the same timing.
Flash employment change q/q (Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 0.9%)
Flash GDP q/q (Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%)
EUR/JPY’s next support zone is at 130.000 and the next resistance zone is at 131.500.
Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/JPY.
EUR/USD Outlook (15 February 2022)Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across.
The eurozone ZEW Economic Sentiment data (Forecast: 54.4, Previous: 49.4) will be released later at 1800 (GMT+8).
Also, the eurozone flash employment change q/q and flash GDP q/q data will be released later at the same timing.
Flash employment change q/q (Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: 0.9%)
Flash GDP q/q (Forecast: 0.3%, Previous: 0.3%)
Currently, EUR/USD is testing to break below the key level of 1.13. Its next support zone is at 1.12000 and its next resistance zone is at 1.13800.
Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/USD if it breaks below the key level of 1.13.