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Macro

Macro study of U.S. economy - Market warning signals?They do not scream "SELL" just yet, but these indicators offer strong caution of further market correction. Please take some time to study the charts so you understand the story they tell. I am not an economist; I am a trader who has been learning more about bonds and macro indicators. (I have ignored the pandemic drop because it was extraneous to normal economic factors that move markets.) ISM Manufacturing > A leading indicator - below 50 indicates contraction > Peak expansion in 2021 seems to have ended, yet wages have risen - this will pinch corporate profits > If next month is lower, it indicates further slowdown (slowing expansion) > Texas manufacturing for Jan'22 showed concerning declines > Note the readings below 50 from Aug-Dec 2019 indicated a problem. Covid-19 did not cause markets to drop; it exaggerated the move. HYG high yield bond ETF > Includes many junk bonds - indicative of economy's credit situation (corporate, municipal, consumer) > Yellow lines show the beginning of a significant drop that indicated worsening credit conditions > Note the "valleys" below 85 match with SPY corrections > Will this keep dropping to 81-80? CCI - Consumer Confidence Index > A leading indication of people's optimism about economy > Red rectangles show significant drops that corresponded with SPY correction > Does most recent CCI drop reflect more SPY correction?
ECONOMICS:USCCIEducation
by OptionsRising
4
GBP/JPY Outlook (31 January 2022)Overall, GBP/JPY is ranging across. Recently, GBP/JPY bounced off the support zone of 153.800. The Japanese Retail Sales y/y data (Actual: 1.4%, Forecast: 2.9%, Previous: 1.9%) released earlier today indicated a slowdown in consumer spending. The Japanese Unemployment Rate data (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 2.8%) will be released tomorrow at 0730 (GMT+8). GBP/JPY’s next support zone is at 153.800 and the next resistance zone is at 156.000. Look for short-term buying opportunities of GBP/JPY.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
EUR/JPY Outlook (31 January 2022)Overall, EUR/JPY is trending downwards. The Japanese Retail Sales y/y data (Actual: 1.4%, Forecast: 2.9%, Previous: 1.9%) released earlier today indicated a slowdown in consumer spending. The Japanese Unemployment Rate data (Forecast: TBA, Previous: 2.8%) will be released tomorrow at 0730 (GMT+8). Currently, EUR/JPY is testing the support zone of 128.800 and the next resistance zone is at 130.000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/JPY if it breaks the support zone of 128.800.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
$BTC may rocket in May 2022If you zoom out, you can see BTC is oscillating between roughly 30 and 60 since early 2021. Despite all the negative macro, BTC remained extremely strong because adoption is inevitable . How likely do you think is that BTC or crypto in general just disappears? While it's a self fulfilled prophecy, if BTC (and other cryptos) adoption continue to grows, then it carries intrinsic value. For this reason, I don't think you can compare the current drop to 2017 where crypto usage was lightyears from what it is today. However, let's not ignore macro which is currently very shitty. Two big macro forces: Potential war in Ukraine, the Fed that will raise interests later this year, and overall negative mood after two years of Covid bring things down. Crypto being adopted by corporations and countries (!) and basically becoming part of the landscape. The negative trend pushes money away from risky, volatile investments, thus outside crypto (and even stocks, as you probably saw). The positive pushes money toward crypto. In the next months, I bet that a couple of states in the US will fight over being the "most crypto friendly state". I'm also pretty sure we're going to see adoption by more corporations, would it be just to speak to a specific audience (think COINBASE:DOGEUSD ). Their logic is very simple, why should we not get access to that money some of our customers have? I also think Covid restrictions will be lifted around end of Q1 2022 which will increase optimism and positivity. To sum up: If the negative wins, then BTC will fall below 30k and maybe down to 20k. I think it's about 25% likely. This could last for a while, from a couple of months (possible) to 1-2 years (very unlikely). If the positive wins, FOMO will kick in and $100k, $200k this year are within reach because investors will go in with the logic "around 2030, 1BTC=$1M" A good trade right now is to buy below $40k and exit as we approach $60k. My trade is to HODL way beyond $60k. DYOR.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by altcryptodegen
2