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Macro

USD Overview (23 December 2021)Yesterday, USD weakened against most major currencies except JPY. The Final GDP q/q data (Actual: 2.3%, Forecast: 2.1%, Previous: 2.1%) released yesterday indicated a slight upwards revision to the economic growth data from the preliminary release. Also, the Conference Board Consumer Confidence data (Actual: 115.8, Forecast: 111.1, Previous: 111.9 revised from 109.5) released indicated that the surveyed households are get more optimistic on the current and future economic conditions in the U.S. The Core PCE Price Index m/m data (Forecast: 0.4%, Previous: 0.4%) will be released later at 2130 (GMT+8). Also, the New Home Sales data (Forecast: 770K, Previous: 745K) will be released later at 2300 (GMT+8).
TVC:DXY
by JinDao_Tai
Where we sunk in quicksand on 12/4, we found bedrock on 12/21.Granted, there was nearly a 3x difference in the amount of volume between these candles' volume ($6.5M vs $2.5M), the price fluctuation is an order of magnitude less volatile. What this suggests to me is that the market has determined this sell off was either premature or dramatically oversold. Zooming out, it appears XRP has just been primed for a strong rally, back to around $1.25-$1.32 by Friday. I'm skeptical that we will break into/above the $1.38-$1.44 region on this leg up. It seems far more likely that we'll reject off the 10 year fib channel's .382 range. We will likely remain rangebound between $0.90-$0.98 & $1.32 going into the New Year. There's a strong case to be made that we should see continuation to the upside, after the end of Fiscal year 2022, as wash traders will no longer have an incentive to suppress prices, to exploit tax loopholes regarding wash trading, which rules still do not apply to the crypto industry at large. This is both why I am skeptical that we will break bullish (above $1.38) before the EoY, but also why I am skeptical that crypto's current bull cycle will be seen as having ended in 2021. Like many reputable investors/long term speculators I'm of the volition that the crypto bull cycle will see renewed fervor in Q1 2022, which will likely extend deep into Q3 before peak euphoria becomes blatantly visible. There's entirely too many variables which are providing tailwinds for the market to see continued growth, even in the face of a potential FED tightening. This is largely due to the inevitable flow of funds from (propped up) markets, into main street, which will drive wage growth, price inflation & pro-crypto/hard asset sentiment among the general population. This is not a time to be short sighted and fearful, but a time to be forward thinking & pro-active in preserving what wealth we have from the ever-more-apparent inflationary pressures which are bursting from every orifice of economies around the world.
POLONIEX:XRPUSDLong
by Jayed
8
EUR/JPY Outlook (22 December 2021)Overall, EUR/JPY is ranging across. Recently, EUR/JPY broke the resistance zone of 128.500. The eurozone Consumer Confidence data (Actual: -8, Forecast: -8, Previous: -7) released yesterday indicated a slight increase in the level of pessimism from the surveyed consumers on the future economic conditions of the eurozone countries. EUR/JPY’s next support zone is at 128.500 and its next resistance zone is at 130.000. Look for short-term buying opportunities of EUR/JPY.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
USD/CAD Outlook (22 December 2021)Overall, USD/CAD is trending upwards. The Canadian retail sales data released yesterday indicated continued increase in consumer spending at a faster rate in October than in September. Core Retail Sales m/m (Actual: 1.3%, Forecast: 1.6%, Previous: 0.2% revised from -0.2%) Retail Sales m/m (Actual: 1.6%, Forecast: 1.0%, Previous: -0.3% revised from -0.6%) Currently, USD/CAD is testing the support zone of 1.29000 and its next resistance zone is at 1.31500. Look for short-term buying opportunities of USD/CAD if it bounces off the support zone of 1.29000.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
EUR/USD Outlook (22 December 2021)Overall, EUR/USD is ranging across. Recently, EUR/USD bounced down from the key level of 1.13. The eurozone Consumer Confidence data (Actual: -8, Forecast: -8, Previous: -7) released yesterday indicated a slight increase in the level of pessimism from the surveyed consumers on the future economic conditions of the eurozone countries. EUR/USD’s next support zone is at 1.12000 and the next resistance zone is at 1.13900. Look for short-term selling opportunities of EUR/USD.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
AUD/USD Outlook (21 December 2021)Overall, AUD/USD is ranging across. In the released monetary policy meeting minutes earlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia highlighted that it will continue to maintain a highly supportive monetary conditions. Also, the central bank will not be hiking interest rate until inflation is within its 2-3% target range. Currently, AUD/USD is testing the support zone of 0.71000 and the next resistance zone is at 0.73000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of AUD/USD if it breaks the support zone of 0.71000.
Short
by JinDao_Tai
GBP/JPY Outlook (20 December 2021)Overall, GBP/JPY is trending downwards. Recently, GBP/JPY broke the support zone of 151.000 The UK Retail Sales data (Actual: 1.4%, Forecast: 0.8%, Previous: 1.1% revised from 0.8%) released last Friday indicated that consumer spending rose more than expected in November. Currently, GBP/JPY is trading down towards the key level of 150. Its next support zone is at 148.900 and the next resistance zone is at 151.000. Look for short-term selling opportunities of GBP/JPY if it breaks below the key level of 150.
Short
by JinDao_Tai