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LONG a Falling Interest Rate! - TLTNASDAQ:TLT is an ETF that tracks value of United States Treasury Bonds in the time range of the 20-30-year bonds. With this ETF tracking the bond value it will rise with the decrease in these bond yields as the previous bonds offering higher % rates increase in value. I am bullish on TLT for a few reasons that are summarized in the bullets below - Interest Rates are at their highest levels in around 20 years and history would show that following these peaks in the 5.5%-7% range tends to be a sharp fall of interest rates usually due to a general moderate or severe economic downturn needing economic stimulus with low rates - Along with the peak thesis, in the current economic state of America, it has been generally discussed by Fed Presidents that rate slowdown / rate hike pauses are starting. The FedWatch tool from CMEGroup shows that traders predict the highest rates will not go any higher, and actually start being cut in Early Spring 2024. Due to this data, it is definitely important to realize the risk/reward of this trade on how the downside is minimal with the current economic conditions proving interest rates will likely not move higher, and definitely not more than a last 25bps hike for this rate cycle considering no unprecedented events occur. - Another staple to this bullish thesis is against the Federal Reserve. I strongly believe the Federal Reserve bluffs intentionally during their public conferences and talks. Recalling the inflationary period following COVID, the Fed repeatedly spoke out on this inflation being transitory while CPI rocketed to record highs in decades. I believe they like to not inform the public to the 100% truth and locked room talks. The Fed has came out and said they are quite against publicizing a rate pause officially / begin cutting rates and I believe this is a bluff. As the Fed claims to wait for data, I believe that data is showing, and will continue to show stronger economic struggle from the effects on high-interest rates. As unemployment just ticked up and probably will continue, rates will start to drop fast as soon as the Fed starts. Treasury Yields would likely dump prior to all of this as the anticipation begins to flow into the markets. Lastly, I think the Fed tends to deceive the public to try and not heavily move the markets in a short time. - Overall the data should start to pour in on economic slow down as student loan repayments resume, credit delinquencies continue to rise, housing market cools, unemployment ticking up, and more can feed to a sharp drop in CPI as aggregate US demand settles. The Fed will act on this slowdown and will need to sharply cut interest rates, especially if they wait too long. - Technicals on NASDAQ:TLT also look strong with a major demand zone, a dailydouble bottom and a diagonal trendline supports the price level. TTM_Squeeze also backs up a possible end to the downside. Below 89 area could be a solid Exit area for risk-management. Any Cut in Rates, or anticipation in rate cuts can send TLT flying with bond yields tumbling. Bonus: NASDAQ:TLT also provides a safe hedge to a market collapse or recession. Because market recessions would spark a cut in rates to help fuel a recovery, while stocks may tumble, this ETF would rally on a decline of interest rates to help stimulate a falling economy. Thesis : long Commons or 2025 dated Credit Spreads
NASDAQ:TLTLong
by ZachSap
6
Head and Shoulders Pattern Forming on the DXY Dollar IndexWhen the dollar is running, most other assets are dropping. This has been my experience in the markets and is why the DXY is on my watchlist and is ALWAYS one of the first charts that I check before jumping into the markets. When the DXY is high, that means that people are demanding dollars, and when it's dropping, those dollars are flowing into other assets. Learning to watch the DXY and it's movements will give you some good edge in the markets. Not everything will be effected. There are always other market conditions to watch for, news, etc that can move the markets as well, but keeping your eye on what the USD is doing is certainly something you want to add to your trading routine. So the Head and Shoulders pattern is a strong reversal pattern in the markets. Nothing is ever 100% and the pattern could fail, so you always have to be ready for that. The regular Head and Shoulders is a bearish reversal pattern meaning we have found the local top in that market at that time. An Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is the opposite. It usually shows at a market bottom and indicates the possibility of bullish movement. What we see here is that the DXY is knocking on the door of a breakout of this pattern and if it keeps going up, well, you will want your trading account to be in the dollar, or looking for shorting opportunities in other assets like crypto and FOREX pairs, that is if you are trading futures or options. If you are trading spot, this is the time to be in the dollar and waiting for your chosen asset to hit a fire sale clearance price, then go in an scoop up what you can with what you have! Of course none of this is financial advice, just some things I have learned along my journey in this crazy world of trading that has helped me make some successful trades. As always make sure you have a solid risk management plan before diving into the deep end! Doing this will help you gain some edge in the markets and trade logically!
TVC:DXY
by thelogicaldude
Respect the pump - USDT.D breaking supportTime to get off the sidelines and respect the pump. If the ongoing L2 rally isn't enough of a wake-up call, check out USDT Dominance, which is putting in lower lows and breaking through a significant previous resistance level with increasing volume to back it up. Also, looking at VPVR, there's also very little volume to stop this trend at least until it retests the 200 SMA, which is not far off. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bounce off of that corresponding with a slight retrace for some of these coins as traders take some profit, but at this point my bias is bullish. We are so back. Happy trades, CD
CRYPTOCAP:USDT.DLong
by cryptodonovan
BTC - Still Strong 🏆Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, 🏹 After breaking above the orange symmetrical triangle, BTC initiated a new parabolic impulse and has been bullish trading within the ascending red channel. Presently, BTC is hovering near the upper boundary of the channel, which could potentially lead to a bearish correction. 📉 In such a scenario , as BTC approaches the intersection of the lower red trendline and $40,000, we will be on the lookout for trend-following buying opportunities. 📈 Concurrently , for the bulls to assert dominance aggressively, a decisive break above the current minor high at $44,500 is crucial. In this scenario, a movement towards the $48,000 resistance level can be anticipated. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
Let's see how this gold chart plays out over the next six years!Here's a long-term perspective I have not seen and will be interested to follow. I think bias needs to be removed. The bulls will see a potential shot to the MOON. The bears will see a likely hard spill. NEWS FLASH: This is a new and crazy world! EVERYTHING IS IN PLAY! If this gets above $2200 in 2024, it could be the start of something epic. If we see the $1700s in 2024; then (eek) I'm nervous. All I know for sure is I look fwd. to watching this every quarter for the next several years.
TVC:GOLD
by CSGold1
Bitcoin - Back Inside The Range? 📦Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, 📌 on Weekly: Left Chart As per my last analysis, BTC is still hovering around the 38,000 - 40,000 resistance zone. 🏹 To sustain bullish control and assert dominance from a macro perspective, a crucial requirement is a weekly candle close above 40,000. Such a development would likely lead to a parabolic movement, aiming for the 50,000 resistance level. 📌 on H4: Left Chart Meanwhile, considering BTC's proximity to a resistance zone, there remains a possibility of bearish intervention, potentially pushing it back into a range reminiscent of the 30,000 to 32,000 range. 📉 To trigger the bearish scenario, a break below the last significant low in red at 35,670 is required. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
1
Gold - Macro View 🌎Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📌 Monthly: Left Chart From a macro perspective, Gold has been generally bullish, trading within the rising brown channel. For the bulls to maintain control, a break above the 2075.0 level is essential. In this scenario, a continuation toward the upper boundary of the brown channel can be anticipated. 📌 Weekly: Right Chart Meanwhile, from a medium to long-term perspective, Gold appears to be confined within a range, currently nearing its upper boundary. As long as the 2075.0 resistance holds, the possibility of a bearish correction persists. Confirmation of a bearish reversal setup would depend on lower timeframes. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
OANDA:XAUUSD
by TheSignalyst
2
GREED, GREED, GREED but what follows?About a month back, I made a solid move in the market that sparked a strong rally. Now, as we near the end of a strong earnings season, I'm in a neutral position, but I'm taking steps to secure gains by trimming my positions. I reckon a decent pullback would be beneficial before considering further upward movement. There's quite a few gaps to fill due to some impulsive buying, and I believe reallocating capital is crucial for a healthier market, especially considering how much weight big tech holds in the SPY. NVIDIA's earnings showed remarkable strength. They surpassed already optimistic expectations by a significant 10%. The $600 target set by premium sellers seemed overly ambitious, yet those sellers managed to benefit from the earnings report released last week. Many institutional investors are operating under the assumption of a smooth landing in 2024, envisioning reduced rates, a depreciating US Dollar, a weakened Chinese macroeconomy, and sustained dominance in Large Cap Tech. The consensus among fund managers leans towards the belief that the Fed's rate hike cycle is nearing its end, with expectations of forthcoming decreases in short-term rates. Additionally, there's a noticeable shift of interest towards Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) and Japanese stocks. (Source: BofA Global Fund Manager Survey, BLOOMBERG)
AMEX:SPY
by SPADESASSETS
Are Recession Fears Still Looming? Gold is Flying Gold has enjoyed an impressive rally over the last 5 weeks - up 6% in the month of October. Historically, gold has always been the quintessential “flight-to-quality” asset. Whenever there are geopolitical or macroeconomic fears permeating financial markets, gold has outperformed. As it stands, December gold is on the brink of retesting the psychologically significant $2,000/oz level. So is the recent price strength evidence of investors’ fears of a looming recession? What other evidence would support this? www.tradingview.com Crude Oil is Crying Crude oil has fallen as sharply as gold has rallied. Since the swing high to 89.85 on October 29th, crude oil prices have fallen more than $13/barrel - settling at $72.90 on Thursday. Price contractions of this magnitude are typically demand driven, which would be another feather in the cap of demand growth fears on behalf of market participants. But, how could you explain the recent performance of the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000? In short - interest rates. As we near what is expected to be the end of the Fed’s rate hike cycle, equities have performed very well in anticipation of rates eventually coming down. The primary reason that the Fed would halt rate hikes, or begin lowering rates would come as a result of economic slowdowns. Stocks Are Strong All in all, the American economy has proven resilient. The rally underway in the equity markets has been substantiated by strong economic data, and disinflationary CPI readings. The proverbial “canary in the coal mine” could be consumer credit and lower-than-normal personal savings rates. However, there are very few signs of a robust economic breakdown coming in the immediate future in the United States. Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com Disclaimers: CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
COMEX:GC1!
by Blue_Line_Futures
BTC - Macro View 🌐Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders, 📈 Following the rejection of the 25,000 support, BTC experienced a significant 50% surge , forming another bullish impulse that confirms the ongoing upward trend. Consequently, we've identified and outlined a rising channel in orange. BTC is currently approaching the upper boundary of the orange channel, coinciding with the 40,000 resistance zone. 🏹 To sustain bullish control and assert dominance from a macro perspective, a crucial requirement is a weekly candle close above 40,000. Such a development would likely lead to a parabolic movement, aiming for the 50,000 resistance level. 📉 Meanwhile , considering BTC's proximity to a formidable resistance zone, there remains a possibility of bearish intervention, potentially pushing it back into a range reminiscent of the 25,000 to 30,000 range. This scenario's confirmation would depend on lower timeframes, especially if a bearish reversal setup is triggered. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Richard Nasr
by TheSignalyst
4
ebay is on sale 🛒Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 EBAY has exhibited an overall bullish trend , trading above the orange and blue trendlines. At present, EBAY is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently approaching a strong support zone 30 - 34 🏹 Thus, the highlighted red circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green support and lower blue and orange trendlines acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As #EBAY approaches the lower red circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
NASDAQ:EBAYLong
by TheSignalyst
3
JNJ - Macro View 🌐Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. 📈 JNJ has exhibited an overall bullish trend, trading within the ascending wedge pattern outlined in blue. It is presently nearing the lower boundary/blue trendline. At present, JNJ is undergoing a correction phase and is trading within the descending red channel. It is currently approaching the lower limit and a highlighted demand zone in green. 🏹 Thus, the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand and lower blue and red trendlines acting as a non-horizontal support. 📚 As per my trading style: As JNJ approaches the lower purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
NYSE:JNJ
by TheSignalyst
1
US500 - Break or Make ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. DAILY: Left Chart 📊 From a long-term perspective, US500 has been trading bearishly within the confines of a descending broadening wedge marked in red. Currently , it is approaching the upper boundary, which acts as a non-horizontal resistance. 📈 For the bulls to maintain control and assume dominance from a macro perspective, a breakthrough above 4420.0 is essential. Meanwhile , there's still potential for the bears to exert influence and drive the price lower. H1: Right Chart From a short-term viewpoint, US500 remains bullish; however, the momentum appears to be weakening as the recent price action has been relatively flat, occurring within the boundaries of the orange channel. 📉 For the bears to seize control and trigger a bearish scenario, a drop below the last low in the orange channel, around 4360.0, is necessary. Meanwhile , the bulls will retain control unless this key level is breached. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
CAPITALCOM:US500
by TheSignalyst
4
Charting Bitcoin's Game-Theoretical DynamicsUNDERSTANDING BITCOIN'S UNIQUE PRICE CYCLICALITY Since inception, nearly 15 years ago, Bitcoin's full price-cycle (peak to trough and back) has been patently agnostic to rate policy changes, liquidity events, inflation expectations, and all other macroeconomic news. This never-before-seen degree of cyclicality versus the surrounding macroeconomic environment is positively mind-boggling, not just for the NYFED, but for every one of us who has researched financial & economic history, professionally. BITCOIN'S ASYNCHRONOUS VALUATION MECHANISM However, when methodically inspecting Bitcoin's price-asynchronicity versus the deeply distorted and ultimately arbitrary pricing system, imposed by central planners to their benefit, its genesis becomes evident: Bitcoin has established an independent, if contemporary currency-valuation system, whose supply-demand dynamics are predominantly the opposite of our current monetary system's fictitious and constantly expanding Money Layers. In essence: "Levering upon its 100% demand-inelastic production vs its Layer I monetary role -as a final-settlement asset, Bitcoin's utility function is wholly independent of systemic financial variables- allowed Satoshi to game our instinct to preserve intrinsic value (rooted in scarcity vs hoarding behavior traits) in order to tightly pin its price to a ~1000-Day Up Leg vs a ~400-Day Down Leg, regardless of the fiat macro subset." CHRONOLOGICAL CONSISTENCY IN BITCOIN’S PRICE TRAJECTORY Thus why, when you split Bitcoin's 15-year price chart into 4 lines each for the halvings (blue) & their midpoints (grey), you find that each peak to trough cycle has pivoted up or down over the same time interval between each color pair. To visualize these dynamics, I drew blue verticals for each halving date and grey ones for each midpoint date. As the chart shows, Up Legs start about two years before halvings and end about one year after them, lasting about 1000 days. That is when Down Legs start: a few months before midpoints and they end a few months after them, lasting about 400 days, which drove me to conclude that by: EMPIRICAL FOUNDATIONS AND FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES From the first week of the analysis, I found the pattern had nothing to do with the Rainbow Charts or Stock-to-Flow Model others have proposed in comparison to Gold, whose fiat price hasn't been a challenge to manipulators ever since Volcker began raising policy rates in the 80s, which finally let COMEX Gold Futures truly start swaying Gold Spot prices. TECHNICAL ADDENDA: CONSTRAINTS AND RECURRING PATTERNS Up Legs until now, seem confined to return no higher than ~20% over the immediately previous high return, within their ~1000-day period. This has occurred persistently between the months before and after each halving. While Down Legs seem confined to a return loss no higher than 80% of the immediately previous high return, within their ~400-day period. This has also occurred persistently between the months before and after each Midpoint. Finally, here's why we can't just pick and choose the last +400 Day bottom. Until the "Latest Bottom" hypothesis is proven (at the end of the present cycle), we cannot firmly establish its precise date or price. All we can do is theorize its value ex-ante (via interpolating the last two ex-post time period samples -as shown in the excel sheet below). No alt text provided for this image. Ex-ante y and x values after line 35 are merely projections trained on the confirmed ex-post values shown above it. THE CHALLENGE OF FUTURE PREDICTIONS The above means that December 26th is not even the lowest price low, it results from averaging the total amount of days that elapsed as the last two ex-post lows were reached. The same goes for the price and date at the end of the dashed white lines, on the top chart. In sum, every one of the ex-ante y and x values projected by the dotted lines are merely projections trained on the confirmed ex-post values locked on top of the partial ellipses formed by the slope of the secants dropping off. AN ESSENTIAL WARNING Upon the above, please note that viewing this occurrence from a financial gain perspective betrays the prejudices that keep our society from considering what other forces move the universe. Instead, this evidence should compel our sense of wonder & unbiased search for answers & opinions. For instance, no matter the brainwash we've been taught about Economics through our lives, we're being played by an algorithm. Finally, even if the algorithm's author were to assure us his contraption is meant to help us own good, and all evidence seems to point that way, no one, except you can decide what that means for your financial futures.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by bayesalgo
URNM: Immediate potential to 55+, but if price breaks 10w MA......I cannot rule-out one final macro-decline wave towards support area 25-20. I like the impulsive move from Mar. 2020 bottom towards Nov 2021 top, that had almost perfect match with the key Fibonacci retracements. Especially notice how Nov top at 51.75 coincides with 1.00% ext of wave (1) projected from wave (4) and near first key resistance zone of 1.764% (of w.(1) from wave (2)). Though the long lasting correction from Nov'21 highs doesn't look finished, due to advance from mid-term Jul'22 lows having yet only three waves, I still can entertain bullish (diagonal) set-up if price manages to hold 10W MA, consolidate around Sep'23 highs and break out above 50 resistance line (as per the green count). I also like how price got volume support while touching the 10W during local correction from the Sep'23 highs, showing that there is potential interest from institutional money around that area. Trading plan: I have entered initial long position, with todays break-out above the cheat pivot area of 44.75. I will be quick exiting with small single digits loss, if price will be able to follow through the following days. Important notice: Elliot waves and fibonacci retracements are a very subjective form of analysis and I don't personally trade out of them. I use them only for the purpose of gauging structural potential of any assets, that allows me to put more confidence when low-risk trading set-up emerges. Author's personal multi-years trading experience convinced him that analysis and opinion doesn't pay, only price pays and that one shall not ever argue with price.
AMEX:URNM
by artemfedorov
TSLA: Some more room to the downside in the near-termTesla has been a true market leader during up-cycles of 2013, 2019 and COVID 2020 market melt-up. It is a rare quality for a company to be able to re-invent itself (even more so several times) and be among next generation of multibaggers. This analysis highlights several technical scenarios of price development, providing key short and mid-term areas of support and resistance that needs to be held and broken to shift odds into favour of a particular path. I don't personally plan to trade this stock until price will be able to consolidate, providing a low-risk entry point. I can count 2023 move from Jan into Jul as an initial wave (1) in a form of a three wave A-B-C diagonal. Since Jul, price is in its final wave of correction - C - with an ideal support area at 197-174-153 zone as the end of larger wave (2) correction, or only the first wave A as per alternative yellow count. Having a closer look on wave C of (2): I cannot consider this correction to be over, until price is bellow 242 (the 0.618% c.i-c.ii). Until price stays bellow this area, I am expecting at least one more wave (c.v) deeper into ideal support zone. The move above 242, will force me to consider the correction of (2)/A to be over and re-analyse next resistance areas to the upside. A few words on macro-degree structure. I consider a macro-upside potential to 700+, because the move from May 2019 lows, still looks unfinished as the five wave impulsive structure, having only 4 waves in place. The macro-move and wave structure looks quite orderly with price nicely following key resistance and support areas*. If price moves bellow 153-128 support areas for wave (2), I will need to consider much bearish short and mid-term count being in place. Important notice: Elliot waves and fibonacci retracements are a very subjective form of analysis and I don't personally trade out of them. I use them only for the purpose of gauging structural potential of any assets, that allows me to put more confidence when low-risk trading set-up emerges. Author's personal multi-years trading experience convinced him that analysis and opinion doesn't pay, only price pays and that one shall not ever argue with price.
NASDAQ:TSLA
by artemfedorov
$GOLD -Where to Next! (TP1 Hit / ~16.000 Pips) *Game-PlanTVC:GOLD On the previous Quarterly Idea released as a macro/investor POV for TVC:GOLD , a *3M(monthly) area was given as an entry point in terms of market structure. We received a great entry on a Quarterly Level *3M. Salute to everyone of you who took action upon it. Sure did the members of bingX copy-trade community. " Where 2 Next for TVC:GOLD !? " -Fundamentally speaking, safe-heaven assets the likes of Bonds TVC:US10Y , MIL:BTC and TVC:GOLD have sky-rocketed recently and they are on a very desirable highlight right now. So did Crude Oil ICEEUR:BRN1! due to 'WAR' break-out from Israeli Occupiers towards the People of Palestine. The on-going 'WAR' or better said, Ethnic Cleansing, must be observed on the following week(s) to come. Upcoming week (the last week of October) is packed with GDP Q3/2023 reports from various countries, (US,EURO-ZONE,UNITED KINGDOM, GERMANY, ITALY) - TA speaking, a pull back in TVC:GOLD in terms of price action to S/R resistance + Recent Demand area would be very beneficial for uptrend resumption, in order for the TVC:GOLD market to test buyers and sellers . This level should hold, otherwise Changing Character at 1.910$ would suggest price to behave on a more steeper fashion , headed on lower areas at 'alternative SL trail' *D Level or even down further South. This scenario would invalidate the recent uptrend of 10%+ in 10 days on $GOLD. *** NOTE This is not Financial Advice ! Please do your own research with your own diligence and consult your own Financial Advisor before partaking on any trading activity with your hard earned money based solely on this Idea. Ideas being released are published for my own trading speculation and journaling needed to be clear on different asset classes price action.
TVC:GOLD
by Mr_J__fx
ADBE is coming closer to an important resistance Strong AI beneficiary, NASDAQ:ADBE , had a great move since Oct'22 bottom, advancing more than 100%, and is still in stable uptrend. What are the price levels long investors and traders need to be cautious about? My structural analysis of price dynamics shows that there is an important level of mid-term resistance in 590-625 that may serve as the topping area and lead to start of the correction towards important support zone 510-466. This support zone is the main crossroad between two counts presented. If 466 level will not hold under any perspective selling pressure, then macro-bearish white count becomes operative with lows below Oct 22 to be expected. If price manages to stay above this 510-466 level, then at least one more leg-up towards 680+ would be my main expectation. Another important cautious sign from the volume perspective, is escalating weekly distribution candle in Sep, with yet no contra-accumulation bars. It is still early and inappropriate to take decisively bearish stance, due to price being in supportive uptrend and not breaking any even short-term moving averages. The purpose of this analysis is to provide potential framework for important resistance area ahead for any long positions already established. The analysis is valid until price stays below 625. Decisive move above 625 will force me to reconsider and re-do the analysis. Important notice: Elliot waves and fibonacci retracements are a very subjective form of analysis and I don't personally trade out of them. I use them only for the purpose of gauging structural potential of any assets, that allows me to put more confidence when low-risk trading set-up emerges. Author's personal multi-years trading experience convinced him that analysis and opinion doesn't pay, only price pays and that one shall not ever argue with price
NASDAQ:ADBE
by artemfedorov
IMOEX Marco technical - One more massive correction or...? My macro work on Russian MOEX Index illustrates how ElliotWave in conjunction with major fibonacci retracements can be useful in providing the context or the operational frame work for every investor and trader to operate and execute one's strategy. Starting from the market Oct'98, we may observe how the price structure has accurately finished its cyclical five wave move lasting almost exactly 23 years to Nov'21 finishing its run just 2.5% bellow an proper (though extended) target for the cyclical wave "V". The EW theory, first elaborated by Ralph Nelson Elliott in 1930s, and later perfected to the most practical investing/trading principals by Avi Gilburt from elliottwavetrader.net, states that most of corrective structures develop in three waves: A-B-C. After finishing what I consider to be first cyclical macro five wave advance in Nov21, the price moved into deep and abrupt correction, straight to the ideal golden ratio (0.618) support zone where it is most typical for any correction (macro and micro) to establish a bottom. That was not particular to average character of the three wave corrective structures (being so abrupt), but the support parameters were met. Never the less in my global technical thesis, I still lean towards the macro correction from the Nov'21 highs NOT being complete and the price is yet to start its third wave decline to 1650 (double bottom) or even 930 zone. I am 55/45 on that regard. That being sad, I cannot completely rule out the possibility of price to have established long-term macro bottom on Feb22 and that we may be already in the very early process of the new (generational?) bull-cycle. As strange as it may sound in today's global political landscape, new macro generational potential for IMOEX, could be very much considered in the realms of several important circumstances happing in Russia: 1. Currency devaluation (bullish for equities); 2. Inflation (typically bullish for equities); 3. Internal barriers to withdraw capital (indirectly bullish); 4. Redomiciliation of large corporations and their capital; 5. Record interest of citizen to local stock market, resulting in record breaking numbers of new accounts opening on Moscow Stock Exchange. 6. Perspective budget deficit that will result in point #1 (bullish for stock) Macro parameter to differentaite between Macro-Bearish and Macro-Bullish scenarios is simple: until price is bellow 3700 area, macro-bearish case cannot be rule-out. The Mid/Short-Term Analysis Until price decisively breaks 2800, I cannot consider the mid-term bullish advance in either cycle wave "B" (macro bearish case), or wave (3) (in generational-bullish case) toped and expect at least one more wave up to 3370-3650 area in Q4 or Q1'24. It is yet early to consider that price has finished its Sep's correction at 3000 area and until price is bellow 3220 resistance zone, I expect one more decline to 2800. If price moves above 3200, than I will shift to yellow/green alt. scenario that wave 4 correction has finished and the price is on its wave to new 2023 highs.
RUS:IRUSLong
by artemfedorov
JBNK - Macro view is not certain, but break-out CaH on a Daily Weekly macro perspective has a nice diagonal pattern, that respects key support and resistance zones. Although it is hard to definitely state that primary wave 4 has found its bottom in Apr23 due to its relatively short timespan within the macro structure. But as I a low-risk trader I am not concerned with the overall wave pattern, but with what price and volume are doing in particular moment in time. That being sad, zooming in to the potential weekly handle zone, I really like how the pattern tightens and volatility subsides. 3 week tight closes in September also provides potential evidence for accumulation rather than distribution in place. Could be actionable above 1420, it the advance will be supported by volume and strength in overall market.
TASE:JBNKLong
by artemfedorov