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2/20/2023 (Monday) SPY Analysis and Market Deep DiveMonday 2/20/2023 - In this Video I discuss The technical analysis of the SPY ETF which is a proxy the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. I also discuss broader market Macros I have been watching including last week's and next weeks economic events. We also discuss some recession indicators, and other charts that show headwinds and tailwinds to equities. In the Trading View App, You can use the links below and hit play, so you can see the action from the dates the charts were published. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Markets-Sniper
Nasdaq, massive distribution? Nasdaq have been in sideway for the first half of Feb 2023 During this period we have 1) FOMC meeting 2) CPI data 3) PPI Data 4) Unemployment Data 5) Retails During the FOMC on the 1st of Feb 2023, Powell was confident of a soft landing. He mentioned the word "disinflation" approximately 20 times. He gave the green light for the market to rally by stating he does not think the financial conditions have eased since Dec 2022's FOMC. The market rejoiced and rallied.... for one day and then proceed to go sideways for the next 2 weeks. During these 2 weeks, all economic data show signs that there was no sign of disinflation. MoM CPI was revised higher for Dec 2022 from negative 0.1% to positive 0.1% Jan 2023's MoM CPI went back up by 0.5% YoY PPI went was 6% compared to the consensus of 5.4% MOM PPI went up by 0.7% instead of the consensus 0.4% (HOLY SHIT!!! F ME! IT IS almost doubled the consensus) Unemployment went down to 3.4%, the lowest since 1969 (low unemployment equates to higher consumer spending equates to higher inflation) MoM Retail sales went up 3% instead of the consensus 1.8& (HOLY SHIT!!) If the critical support is broken, we have a long way down. Much like inflation in 2021, maybe this "disinflation" is also transitory
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by NimbusCapital
US Market, Short retrace or all the way down?10YY is back at Dec 2022 high, yet S&P is far from Dec 2022 low. 100Y has broken out above resistance. The dollar continues to show strength. No doubt, there is bound to be a market retracement coming up. If you FOMO during the last week, you may want to trim some long positions. The next question is, will a new higher low be created? There are 2 possible scenarios ahead 1) S&P bottom at a level higher than 3800 (Dec's 2022 low), hence a higher low. Inflation continues to decline. The dollar continues to weaken. Soft landing and bull market is confirmed but it won't be as strong as the 2020 post covid. 2) YoY Inflation creates a higher low and rises back above 6.5%. The dollar continues to rally. 10YY continues to rise and retest the high at 4.3%. Then we may see S&P breaking 3800 and maybe even restest 3500. Our portfolio is neutral for Feb 2023, but we may start pivoting to short bias. We have shared a few potential shorts ($AAPL and $HD). However, a short bias portfolio does not mean the entire portolio is filled with SQQQ or CFD S&P short. By playing a careful selection of individual stocks, we can choose the degree of our bearishness. We are still carrying some long positions in the utility/clean energy and shipping sector. As we see more data, we will get more bearish or less bearish. DYODD
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by NimbusCapital
1
Bitcoin Bull Trap??? Bitcoin blasted thru all bunch of major resistance then sells off like crazy.... Bull Trap!!? Bitcoin needs to hold the yellow trend line, at least. Not surprised to see Bitcoin doing this here. Upon all seriousness the markets are still uncertain due to the Macro economic environment. I think the reason for the BTC upside is the fact that a lot of Shorts got liquidated (Short Squeeze) plus there are some positive stuff happening in Crypto in other countries. All this Celsius, BlokFi, FTX, Voyager, 3 Arrows Capital and probably a bunch I missed, has already been priced in IMO. This is a very interesting time in the world with one of the biggest shift in monetary policy we will ever see in our life times. Any who, hope you are positioned well as we head into uncharted territory as the World is changing faster and faster by the days passing. Good Luck Out There!
by BuddaCo_LifeStyle
2
Don't Fight The FedU.S. CPI inflation data was published on Tuesday. On a year-over-year (YoY) basis, inflation data came in hot at 0.21% above expectations. Despite inflation slowing YoY, expectations had been that current data would come out lower. Consequently, risk assets and equities have taken a short-term hit whilst the dollar gained some bullish momentum as this data increases the possibility of future Federal Reserve (Fed) rate hikes. What matters more in trading is often how the market reacts to news rather than the news itself. And at least for now, markets did not take the news too badly. Meanwhile, US January Retail Sales came in >1% above expectations. Is this bullish because the economy is doing better than expected? Or bearish, because the Fed will have more reason to hike? It remains to be seen. A further signal will be how markets react to the Securities and Exchange Commission's (SEC) announcement that they are suing a stablecoin issuer. This time, Binance is in the firing line as the SEC labelled Binance’s stablecoin BUSD as an “unregistered security” and announced legal proceedings against its issuer Paxos. The interesting point is that to be labelled as a security, an asset must meet the Howey Test criteria. Part of this criteria requires that there must be an expectation of profit when buying an asset. How the SEC has established that an “expectation of profit” is present when purchasing a stablecoin remains to be seen. One clear thing is that since the FTX debacle, there has been a profound push from U.S. authorities towards regulating and restricting the crypto industry. Just last month, Binance was forced to terminate their USD on and off-ramps. So far, the market is taking the news well. From a technical perspective, the Bitcoin daily chart looks healthy. The market is in the midst of a small correction following the rally from the beginning of January. The bulls will hope that the 0.382 Fibonacci level holds as strong support before the rally can continue up towards the next key resistance at around $25,000. An important note is that MA9 and MA50 are beginning to converge. The bears will be hoping for a death cross where MA9 crosses below MA50, likely providing the market with some short-term bearish momentum. In order for a new bull market to begin, the technical setups must align with the broader macroeconomic perspective. Although the technicals look good on various timeframes, economic factors, Fed policy and U.S. authorities like the SEC waging war against the industry make it unlikely that the market will get a convergence of both technical and macroeconomic indicators until after the 2024 election. Until we get an alignment of these perspectives, it seems wise to keep the words of famed investor Martin Zweig in our minds: Don’t fight the Fed.
by Coinrule
2/13/2023 Upcoming SPY and Market diveIn this Video I discuss upcoming events quickly, then dive into the weekly analysis of the SPY ETF which is a good proxy for the S&P500 that is often a tell on general market movements. We also discuss some recession indicators, and some pattern analysis. Also dont Forget CPI is released on the 15th. You can jump to the below links and hit the play from the dates submitted and it will play out the bars from publishing until now. I will keep this going so we can follow outcomes to analysis!
AMEX:SPYLong
by Markets-Sniper
My thoughts about BTC bottoming Last several years I've been using many tools to analyze, and try to take advantage of opportunities in terms of long-term market structure on BTC . One of the main tools I really like to use and came with the most reward so to speak, is a specific Fib level. It proved to read with a very good probability the potential bottom of BTC ( especially BTC ) on the higher timeframes. As you can see on the chart, each cycle has a corresponding fib plotted which starts at the H and goes to the L of that particular cycle. The fib levels presented are only 2, with the green one being the "default", and the gray one being a secondary, only touched once, after a crisis-like moment in 2011. I believe this year we will be seeing it again, so the chart plots both levels and my expectation is that the bottom would be somewhere inside the range of $8K to $13K by end of Q3 2023. The projection coincides with a potential additional drop of the stock market this year, and the overall macroeconomic conditions we are living through. We will see how things play out, but I am building confidence on the usefulness of these levels.
BNC:BLX
by rafblz
$SPY Long Term Chart - Possible Downtrend Breakout$SPY Long Term Chart - Possible Downtrend Breakout Not a recommendation, just an observation. This could be the beginning of a new long term uptrend - though it's dependent on a lot of different macro & geopolitical factors in the next 3-6 months. (i.e. inflation readings, FED actions, war in Ukraine, etc) Q1-Q2 2023 could begin to see a rotation out of defensive/value stocks and back toward growth stocks. Possible SPY breaks $500 mark by year end. (long-shot) *This is NOT financial advice. Opinion only.
AMEX:SPYLong
by Triple_Barrel_Capital
Bear Markets are for Building?Friends, fundamentally things could not be looking any better for Ethereum. Multiple Central Banks are now building on Ethereum infrastructure. (1)(2)(3) Treasury Tokenization thanks to Blackrock (will increase TVL ) (4) Circle launching a Euro Stable Coin - which will increase adoption. (5) Additional stable coins to follow! Uniswap entering the FX market , slashing costs by a projected 80%! (6) European Investment Bank (EIB) launches successful digital bond on Ethereum Blockchain (7) Ethereum crossing over 100 million unique wallets (8) Ethereum has more developers working on it then any other chain, with 16% of all new entrants building on ETH Ethereum validators surged to 500,000 ! Shanghai upgrade is not even out yet. The ETH protocol is not censor resistant , so while there are many OFAC-compliant blocks- validators are not forced to comply. ETH is ESG Friendly , while Bloomberg warns Bitcoin is still being powered by China Coal (bad optics with energy prices in Europe recently) (9) ETH is deflationary (Bitcoin & the USD are INFLATIONARY) (10) The good news goes on & on - as I have not even gone over ZK Rollups, Scaling, Sharding etc. Scarcity + Demand = Prices Rising So what does all this mean fundamentally? Due to the burning mechanism in the protocol - with heavier adoption their is more burn. More burn means more scarcity. Inflation increases supply, this protocol decreases the supply through swaps. With central banks and 9 TRILLION moved on chain from USDC alone (not even accounting for DAI, USDT, or BUSD - the Binance stable coin is a also an ERC-20 token) adoption is rising We will see more stable coins continuing to increase adoption resulting in more eth burning. When it comes to price: Deflation>Inflation Adoption is growing on this network. There is real value, there is real TVL. Since the merge... -->BTC Supply GREW by 110 BTC ($2.5B) --> ETH Supply SHRUNK by 2,830 ETH ($4.5M) Bitcoin/Ethereum Commentary I have had angry direct messages in the past advising how Bitcoin is PROTECTION against inflation, how could it inflate if the supply is capped? Even with a capped supply that will be targeted in 140 years (generations) the BTC inflation rate is +1.716%/year. To make the situation graver - the miners create constant selling pressure powering the energy intensive network, coupled with physical hardware that has to be purchased & maintained. This equates to costs. To pay for costs, miners must sell bitcoin to keep the network safe - creating constant selling pressure. If you have made it to this point, please let me know your thoughts! If I am missing a key piece of information, or you find something shared as inaccurate, please point it out so the whole TradingView community can benefit from it. Citation 1 - www.bloomberg.com 2 - www.rba.gov.au 3 - www.centralbanking.com 4 - www.investing.com 5 - www.circle.com 6 - uniswap.org 7 - www.eib.org 8 - www.tradingview.com 9 - www.bloomberg.com 10 - ultrasound.money
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by ZenMode
6
The 200 Daily SMA was struck again... Full short using QQQSAssuming with a high degree of certainty, that positive traditional market sentiment is waning. As we enter the first acknowledged year of this Great Inflationary Central Bank Recession, caused by a combination of negative interest rates and a supply chain bullwhip effect even the Russian military's logistic department might have been able to spot. We are going to lose the last bit of positive buying sentiment, likely leading to the S&P 500's next strong rejection lower. From a macro point of view, Central banks are all engaging on further tightening measures. While Inflation is running rampant and significantly raising prices for all goods, particularly in terms of rental properties, food and living expenses. Aspects that are not proportionally represented in official government reports. Combined with this is wave of lowering company earnings and a swathe of high paying lay offs in the financial, tech and manufacturing sectors. These factors have not been factored into price yet and the likelihood of the Central bankers holding higher rates for these next two years, has not be accounted for. The final aspect of this analysis is the slow selling that has occurred. With each rally against the downtrend, each sideways accumulation is being held up by a "Buy the Dip" mentality. Retail is buying the dip the same way as in every bear cycle, accompanied by all the bull market funds that are buying the dip, when a likely larger 15% sell off is coming down the river to Niagara Falls. This is just one Investor's opinion, best of luck out there.
SP:SPXShort
by FortunaAlgoAnalytics
5
Fundamental and Technical Analysis | January week 2, 2023Table of Content: 1. The World Bank 2. Jerome Powell 3. Mass Layoffs 4. Corporate Headline 5. Technical 1. The World Bank The World Bank has recently announced a slash in the forecast for global growth. This year's global growth forecast is reduced by nearly half, to just 1.7%, from its previous projection of 3%. It would be the third-weakest annual expansion in three decades, behind only the deep recessions that resulted from the 2008 global financial crisis and the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. “For most of the world economy, this is going to be a tough year, tougher than the year we leave behind,” Georgieva said. “Why? Because the three big economies — U.S., EU, China — are all slowing down simultaneously.” Furthermore, The World Bank projects that the European Union’s economy won’t grow at all next year after having expanded by 3.3 percent in 2022. It foresees China growing 4.3 percent, nearly a percentage point lower than it had previously forecast and about half the pace that Beijing posted in 2021. 2. Jerome Powell In a recent statement led by Jerome Powell, he expressed his highest level of hawkish sentiment towards the economy. He noted that inflation is the foundation of a healthy economy and can require the central bank to take actions that are not necessary, but popular. Price stability is the bedrock of a healthy economy and provides the public with measurable benefits over time. But restoring price stability when inflation is high can require measures that are not popular in the short term as we raise interest rates to slow the economy.” He wants to resolve the issue he initially created, previously, he was insistent that inflation was going to be transitory and now there is a clear indication that it is not and will require major efforts to bring it down. Why was Powell hawkish? Financial conditions are unintentionally loosening and he does not want to see it because that will increase the probability of a rebound in markets which could mean a rebound in inflation. - Some of the world’s largest asset managers such as BlackRock Inc., Fidelity Investments and Carmignac are warning markets are underestimating both inflation and the ultimate peak of US rates, just like a year ago. (Bloomberg) - “Central banks are unlikely to come to the rescue with rapid rate cuts in recessions they engineered to bring down inflation to policy targets. If anything, policy rates may stay higher for longer than the market is expecting,” a team of analysts including Jean Boivin, the head of the Institute, wrote last week. BlackRock is underweight developed market equities and it prefers investment-grade credit to long-term government bonds. - JP Morgan CEO, Jamie Dimon said Tuesday that the Federal Reserve may need to raise interest rates to 6% to fight inflation, which would be higher than most are expecting this year. 3. Mass Layoffs In order to bring down inflation, the Federal Reserve needs to slow down the economy. It is common sense to see that an economy will not go down until consumers stop spending which results in loss of employment. - One of Wall Street's biggest banks plans to lay off up to 3,200 employees this week, as it faces a challenging economy, a downturn in investment banking, and struggles in retail banking. It is one of the biggest rounds of layoffs at Goldman since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Goldman Sachs is having difficulties in the stock market, underperforming. - Bed Bath & Beyond reported a net loss for the quarter ending Nov. 26, 2022, of $393 million. That's a widening of 29.7% from the $276.4 million loss in the comparable quarter of 2021. Furthermore, the Q3 loss is worse than the retailer's projection last week of a $385.8 million loss. These inadequate results will lay off hundreds or thousands of employees in the company. On the other hand, the stock rallied by double digits, emphasizing again that the stock market likes when employees get fired to increase profit margins. - Coinbase announced Tuesday that it was laying off 950 people, about 20% of its staff. The job cuts come only a few months after another major round of layoffs. The crypto brokerage firm let 1,100 people go in June, about 18% of its headcount at the time. Again, the stock still rallied by double digits. It is notable to mention that the brother of the former Coinbase product manager, Nikhil Wahi, was sentenced Tuesday to 10 months for his role in a scheme to trade on confidential information about when the cryptocurrency exchange was going to list new tokens. A comparable phenomenon I start to visualize from these and recent layoffs is the 2021 stock splits. When firms announced stock splits in 2021, their stock would surge. In 2023, when a company announces layoffs, the stock surges higher (until they run out of liquidity). 4. Corporate Headline - The cyclical growth rebound, possibly triggered by the Chinese reopening, is being priced in or could go higher (major resistance at SPX $4,250). Macau sees deserted streets and Casinos after reopening (Reuters). - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. recorded its first quarterly revenue miss in two years, signaling the global decline in electronics demand is starting to catch up with the chip giant (Bloomberg). This issue will take months to recover as it has to adapt to the oversupplied market. - Apple is Broadcom’s largest customer and accounted for about 20% of the chipmaker’s revenue in the last fiscal year, amounting to almost $7 billion to stop buying key components, and instead, produce pieces themselves. - Blackstone Inc. lost a bid to end rent stabilization at Manhattan's largest apartment complex after a judge ruled in favor of tenants at Stuyvesant Town-Peter Cooper Village. - Wells Fargo, once the No. 1 player in mortgages, is stepping back from the housing market. This is a negative signal for the housing market, prices are too high and few can afford these houses. Once homeowners realize the Fed is not going to ease interest rates anytime soon, the housing market is going to slow down dramatically and individuals are going to lose their homes. Renters and Airbnb will slow down real estate further as they will not be able to pay their mortgages and will be forced to get rid of the houses, greatly increasing the supply. 5. Technical Analysis - Momentum indicators: RSI and MACD moving toward positive momentum and volume remains below average (bullish). - If S&P500 breaks the sloping resistance (channel), prices will rise significantly as individuals will assume the market is already priced-in, plus, showing: a break in pattern resistance; higher-low; and bear market sentiment reducing. - This is a similar pattern to the 2000 market crash where SPX broke a major trend and resistance, then followed to fall 34%. I point out the negative indication in most of my recent analyses, this is because the negative indications are far greater than any positive singular indication in this market environment. Overall, I have not changed my outlook and I am keeping my government bonds. I will take the opportunity of a rise in equity markets to short BTC at higher levels.
CME_MINI:ES1!Short
by ssavi
S&P500, was Friday (06 Jan 23) really Bull move?As we close out the first trading week of 2023, all 3 US indices close on Friday with a 2+% gain. What a great start to 2023! Is it really, though? If you think the market rallied on higher than expected NFP and lower unemployment rates, this is your first mistake. For most of 2022, the market had considered any economic strength is bad for stocks because it would mean higher inflation and a lower chance of a Fed Pivot. We saw this time and time again in 2022 when the market dropped on lower unemployment rates, higher wages, and higher retail sales. Even Jerome Powell has stated countless times in FOMC that the tight labor market is terrible for bringing down inflation. What caused the market rally, then? The ISM Non-Manufacturing Report. What you see here is the 1-hour chart of the S&P500. The market did rally on the NFP report, but it came back down immediately. However, at 11 pm, when ISM Non-Manufacturing numbers came out, it gave the market confidence to rally. What is the ISM Non-Manufacturing Report? It measures the business activity in the non-manufacturing sector, mainly the service sector. The service sector accounts for 80% of US business activities, and manufacturing accounts for the remaining 20%. After 30 consecutive months of activity growth (Since May 2020), the Service sector has contracted. Before last Friday, the last time Service Sector went into contraction was during the Covid19 crash and the Housing Crisis. So this is a piece of terrible news, then? Why did the market rally? The market believes that a weakening economic condition will trigger Federal Reserve to cut the rate. The market still believes in this delusional Fed Pivot narrative. Time and time again, Jerom Powell will come out during FOMC and kill the rally. During Dec 2022 press conference, Powell explicitly stated, "No Pivot in 2023" (go see the conference for yourself). The market is still fighting the Fed. The 10 Year Yield and 2 Year Yield diving 4% also proves this delusional "Fed Pivot" mindset. The Fed is raising FFR to keep the rate high to discourage cheap money. But if the 10Year and 2 Year rates are crashing on the backdrop of a delusional scenario, it will make the Fed's job even harder. They even stated that in the December meeting minutes. "Unwarranted easing in financial condition, ESPECIALLY IF DRIVEN BY A MISPERCEPTION BY THE PUBLIC or the committee's reaction function, would complicate the committee's effort to restore price stability." Once again, this market rally has no legs to stand on. When the FOMC decision arrives on 31 Jan 2023, Powell will stop this rally dead on its track again. Or maybe the CPI number coming this Thursday may slap some sense into the market. Do not get tricked (again). This is not the first time. Both July 2022 and October 2022 rallies were also based on a Pivot delusion. And it did not end well. If you are long-biased, do not overstay your welcome. I will be heading to these two key event with a short bias portfolio. NOTE: Banks and Big Techs earnings are coming up!
OANDA:SPX500USDShort
by NimbusCapital
Long USD short AUD due to long term growth constraint Long USD Governor: Jerome H. Powell Monetary Policy: Monetary policy in the United States comprises the Federal Reserve's actions and communications to promote maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates--the economic goals the Congress has instructed the Federal Reserve to pursue. o Sentiment: Bullish o Rate Decision: 1% o Current Rate: 0.33% o Rate Differential: 1.67% o Inflation Target: 1% o Current Inflation Rate: 8.54% o Statement Summarized: The US Fed will make MoM interest rate adjustments if inflation continues to persist, Unemployment maybe down however certain labor participates refuse to work in supply, logistics and or overall labor primarily due to the pay and work conditions o Short Term Bias: U.S. Retail Sales will provide a adequate entry due to the higher the average volatility that will take place on that day due to the consensus that sales will be down, Indicating a temporally deprecation of the USD dollar. o The Average Daily Range (ADR): 20 Pip o Possible Opportunities 1: Although overall economic activity edged down in the first quarter, household spending (Consumer Staples) and business fixed investment (Bonds) remained strong. Job gains have been robust in recent months, and the unemployment rate has declined substantially (Indicator 1- Interest Rate Hike). Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures (Labor Constraints and wage increases). o Possible Opportunities 2: The invasion of Ukraine by Russia is causing tremendous human and economic hardship. The implications for the U.S. economy are highly uncertain (Fear, reserve currency). The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions (Labor Constraints and Zero Covid Policy). The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks o Possible Opportunities 3: The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals. The Committee’s assessments will consider a wide range of information, including readings on public health, labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments. Short AUD o Governor: Philip Lowe o Monetary: In determining monetary policy, the Bank has a duty to contribute to the stability of the currency, full employment, and the economic prosperity and welfare of the Australian people. To achieve these statutory objectives, the Bank has an ‘inflation target’ and seeks to keep Consumer Price Inflation in the economy to 2–3 per cent, on average, over the medium term. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money and encourages strong and sustainable growth in the economy over the longer term. o Sentiment: Neutral o Rate Decision: RBA is primarily concerned with CPI o Current Rate: 0.35% o Rate Differential: % o Inflation Target: 2-3% Average o Current Inflation Rate: 5.1% o Rate Differential: 2-3% o Statement Summarized: RBA is primarily concerned with bringing down inflation however it will not add to its QE policy nor will it reverse its holdings of bonds on their Balance Sheet o Balance Sheet activity: Will not sell current QE assets not are they reinvesting earnings. (Holding) o Market Sentiment: (Two weeks of charts from the start date after Fed meeting) o Short Term Bias: (Last for 1 day great for entry and exit) o The Average Daily Range (ADR): o Possible Opportunities 1: The outlook for economic growth in Australia also remains positive, although there are ongoing uncertainties about the global economy arising from: the ongoing disruptions from COVID-19, especially in China; the war in Ukraine; and declining consumer purchasing power from higher inflation. The central forecast is for Australian GDP to grow by 4¼ per cent over 2022 and 2 per cent over 2023. Household and business balance sheets are generally in good shape, an upswing in business investment is underway and there is a large pipeline of construction work to be completed. Macroeconomic policy settings remain supportive of growth and national income is being boosted by higher commodity prices.
Short
by TyrusL
1