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BTC cycle based Wave CountsThis is our macro view on BTC based on cycle based wave counts. --> BTC is in the final leg down of a full macro corrective wave 4, nobody knows what the excact low would be. Based on wavecounts, Fibonacci extension + retracement targets the most confluence is founded in the 13-11.5k zone (also the launchepad of the previous bullrun) with an potential overshoot towards 10k We dont want to try buy the exact bottem, we always waiting to get conformation on a bottem formation or we buying at prices where we feel comfort with to hold for the next wave up. --> BTC never was able to make new ATH's before the halving date. The next logical top should be in 2025 This is just one of the many scenario's we could think of, along the way with having more chart data our vieuw on this TA could change. On wich prices are you feeling comfort to buy in without having any regret over the next years? What is your trade plan? Cheers, Team Quantistic
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Quantistic
8
The West Takes Aim at Russian Oil MarketsAs tensions continue to escalate between the West and Russia, a new development has emerged in the ongoing struggle over oil shipments. The West has been using shipping insurance as a tool to put pressure on Russia, but this strategy has had limited success so far. Insurance is only available for shipments valued at less than $60 a barrel, and as it happens, Russian oil already trades just below this cap. As a result, it's not yet clear how much of an impact this will have on oil prices. But this raises an interesting question: why would the West set the cap at this level? The answer, it seems, is that they've calculated it in such a way that it provides just enough incentive for Putin to keep pumping oil. This is because the West is understandably concerned that Putin might choose to remove Russian oil from the international market, causing prices to rise significantly. And if global oil prices do rise much above where they currently are, the situation could become much more heated. This is just one example of the complex dance that goes on between petronations and the West. On the one hand, the West has the ability to put pressure on petronations by limiting their access to the global market. But on the other hand, petronations have the power to put significant pressure on the West via energy prices. So it's a delicate balancing act, and it's not always clear who has the upper hand. But what does this mean for the future? Well, it's difficult to say for certain, but it's clear that the West is trying to find a way to put pressure on Russia without causing a major disruption in the global oil market. And if they're successful, it could have significant implications for the ongoing struggle between the West and Russia. Of course, there are many other factors at play here, and it's impossible to predict exactly how things will unfold. But one thing is clear: the discussion around this issue is only going to become more heated as global oil prices continue to fluctuate. So it's definitely a topic worth keeping an eye on in the coming months and years.
FX:USOIL
by JoelWarby
2
BTC - What December Holds HistoricallyHi Traders, Investors and Speculators 📈📉 Ev here. Been trading crypto since 2017 and later got into stocks. I have 3 board exams on financial markets and studied economics from a top tier university for a year. Daytime job - Math Teacher. 👩🏫 In today's analysis, we take a look at Bitcoin over Decembers from the past. Which direction does the price usually go, bullish or bearish ? It's no surprise that it seems to be a near equal amount of months up vs. down. Over the 11 months observed, we notice 6 green Decembers and 5 red Decembers. This makes probability near equal. However, we could take a look at a few other interesting observations: 💭 Highest increase for Bitcoin was +58.92% when the lowest decline was only -33.15% 💭 More often than not, two months of the same color follow 💭 The biggest yearly increase was during December 2012 - December 2013 with a whopping yearly increase of 9,899.19% 💭 The second biggest increase after that was from Dec 2016 - Dec 2017 with +2,681.15% 💭 The biggest yearly decline was from December 2017 - December 2018 with BTCUSD losing -84% The crypto winter that started in December 2018 was one of the worst yet... But with the industry under pressure, could this year be the new record? IF BTCUSDT were to drop to $11 000, that would be a -81% decline from last December. From all the above... Which way do you think the price will go during December 2022 ? _______________________ 📢Follow us here on TradingView for daily updates and trade ideas on crypto , stocks and commodities 💎Hit like & Follow 👍 We thank you for your support ! CryptoCheck
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by CryptoCheck-
41
Market 2022 Pullback - Consolidation & RecoveryWe are at the bottom of the market, Bitcoin has seen some major flush outs as institutions that ave poorly managed positions keep causing selling pressure. The market needs to be stimulated for the next leg up and until then we consolidate at the lows. Typically bitcoin does not break down below previous lows but we have been trading under $20,000. The market will be positioned in a bear trend until we break above the previous low $25,000 and then we can continue to consolidate and potentially start making our way back to the ATH and then higher. We anticipate that within the next 1-2 years we will see all time highs and bitcoin prices above $100,000. This is a macro outlook on the market. Long positions should be scaled in and leverage at the lows built up with short stops. Buying between 16K - 10K are great entries for a long but trades may take months to come to fruition.
Long
by TheCryptAlpha
4
Crypto/Gold AnalysisCurrent economic and political general dismay impacts the valuation of different fiat currencies, specifically the USD(DXY). This is due to: Lower global trade activity (recession) = lower dollar supply = USD price increase Demand for USD increases for the safe haven currency = USD price increase Worldwide investors' stakes in equities and cryptocurrencies have been shortened. The price of Bitcoin is declining further with the US dollar substantially rallying. Nevertheless, its arguable intrinsic value may be better approximated through spread graphs, particularly - BTC/GOLD; as it omits the mentioned political and economic supply/demand effects for a more precise analysis. This may be recognised through technical analysis of past prices The main graph presents GOLD/BTC breaking out its long-term resistance; which logically makes sense. history reminds us: The upcoming recession doesn't look promising for such volatile securities with (arguably) no intrinsic value Inflation = Gold is Bullish Potential Trade Short BTC: Entry Price:16,700 TP:15,515 SL:16,920
TVC:GOLDShort
by Sanzhar_m
4
BTC HTF OUTLOOKBTC retesting downtrend resistance after an initial breakout. Since the confirmation of a top in bitcoin and a confirmation of a lower high and therefor downtrend, almost exactly a year later BTC broke out of the downtrend and rallied to 21.5k before a macro news event causing fear and mass selling back down to local lows of 17k. which also coincides with a retest of the trendline. If BTC can hold and rally off these lows it would be a strong place to start building for the next bull market. However if this area of support fails then a further drop down to 14k is possible. Not financial advice
by ProR35
1
Watching EURUSD After a Historic CrashThe EURUSD is down 13 of the last 15 months. That is red after red after red. The bearish sentiment is about as extreme as I can remember, ever, for any currency. I usually do not trade FX and I should be clear, I do not have a position in the Euro at this moment. But I do want to write about a few things that have caught my attention. Foremost, I think it is pretty interesting that the EURUSD is not only at parity, but also slightly below parity. This makes capital flows rather easy, if not effortless for Americans to invest in Europe or want to get involved in Europe. It also makes exports more competitive for Europe to other countries. There is a point where these levels just do not make sense from a broad, macro standpoint. The strength of the Dollar makes investment into Europe that much more attractive. If you have dollars, you can now afford more. I would add that there are 764 million people in Europe, with many of the greatest cities on Earth. Actually, that is something that I do find interesting. I follow many smart investors/traders on social media. The majority of them are extremely bearish on Europe and the Euro. I have seen it all from them - social disparity! energy crisis! bad leadership! And the list goes on. HOWEVER, when I see that they are on vacation, with the family or taking time for themselves, where do they go? Pictures of Italy, Greece, and more. I find this to be a tad ironic, and also interesting. What I mean is, to be so bearish about a region, but then for that region to also be your number one vacation spot. I myself need to get back to Europe - I really love French organic wines! One more important thing about a weak Euro: it makes European exports far more competitive. When they produce goods, relative to the Dollar, it now does not cost as much. In addition, that means they can sell their product for less. This means they can compete with more brands and services. It will lower prices, thus, make the product more attractive and easier to consume. Exports can be a great thing for a country! In this case, it's for many countries across Europe. There are many more interesting developments that I am thinking about - for example home buying the region, but that is for another post, and let me not waste any more of your time. Let's talk trade levels! The levels in yellow that I marked are from 2001/2002. That happened after the tech crash. If this is another tech crash, well we have further to go. In addition, that kind of pattern, and price behavior might be something to WAIT for. Hey, what's the rush. Lastly, I did highlight the extent of this sell-off. Month after month of selling. Even as a mean reversion trade I would wager there is some potential to return to rather significant moving average. The 200 day moving average is at 1.24, for example! Could it ever return there? If you do your own research, check out where the 50-day and 100-day moving averages are. You may also find that interesting. Okay that's all for now! Thanks for reading and good luck.
by scheplick
5
BTC, Is the Bear Market Over?BTC looks like it has completed a triangle for the final wave of a diametric pattern which began in mid 2021. We will likely see a rapid melt up from here. Targets are well above all time high if we can confirm the end of this bear market. Macro LARPers will get rekt trying to short into extremely high and sticky inflation. Alts will outperform BTC because of regulatory changes coming in the next year that will clarify securities laws and end SEC manipulation of crypto markets.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Intuit
Pain is just starting for crypto - 3k area at play?! for Pain is just starting. The US treasury bonds are decreasing as the debt to GDP ratio is going through quantitative cumulative tightening resulting in increased pressure on subscription prices and falling demand for butter cookies and other commodities. This will only worsen as the BOJ (Bank of Japan) is issuing rate hikes at a pace of 75 bipperinos per hike, eventually leading to a bottleneck in its economical orbit. This could lead to two scenarios : recessional (unilateral) crash or hyperdeflationary catalytic sme-GMA event as seen in 1945. As of now, any long is destined to be a losing trade. The probability of a bottom across US equities is low as they're indirectly correlated to the rate of growth in Brazilian government subsidized index KRVM4GA , which has been seeing major bearish divergences as the ambassador of Peru declared Brazil to be debt-solvent, meaning that its portfolio of foreign asset is absorbing damage at unsustainable pace, with no sign of improvement until FY2036. Furthermore, FAANG companies are set to launch a global campaign in support of Ukrainians, which puts pressure on Kremlin forces currently controlling the black sea canal ; all of this could lead to a shortage in wheat and forced selling on the BVT-PLU5 index , possibly impacting the life of millions of Europeans, thus directly decreasing their income and risk appetite when it comes to volatile assets like BTC. Overall, this puts global macro conditions in a dangerous spot as they are set to worsen by EOY, possibly reaching a doomsday-level bankrun scenario. For those reasons, I will be looking for shorts (and shorts only) until we hit the 3k area (possibly marking the bottom for this cycle).
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by deathtotrade
12
DXY vs BTC - MACRO 2013-2022 Cycle Hi/LoDXY vs BTC - MACRO 2013-2022 Cycle Hi/Lo ______ DXY US Dollar Index , Weekly chart vs Bitcoin . Again, I'm banging the table how important the DXY is and how it inverses Bitcoin . I'm looking at going back to 2013, but you can go back to 2010 as well. We'll go back to 2013 here. BTC cycle top 2013. DXY hanging around the lows. DXY went on a bull run. Bitcoin went on a bear run. Bitcoin dropped roughly 86%. DXY topped out, 2016 2017. DXY dropped bear market for the DXY - Bull market for BTC . BTC ran into December, 2017 to 20K, roughly 2500% gain. Again, DXY went on a run into Covid. Bitcoin went bear, roughly 80% drop on Bitcoin . DXY topped out. Bitcoin went on a bull run Bitcoin up 1400% into 65 K, 69K cycle tops. DXY went parabolic as we see now into current market conditions. Bitcoin , roughly 75% bear market. DXY possibly topping out at 114. Overbought on the weekly turning over, overbought on the monthly turning over, overbought on the three month turning over...BUT the daily is getting oversold rather quickly. So, keep an eye on the DXY .! If this is cycle top for the DXY = near or at cycle bottom for Bitcoin . If the DXY continues to run, Bitcoin's going to possibly hang around this 18 to 20K support or even go to new lows (watching those BTC CME Futures gaps below us all the way down to 9700) Keep an eye on the DXY . Stay chill!
TVC:DXY
by UnknownUnicorn7216011