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Macroanalysis

Recession Timeframe Horizon Macro Monday (2) Potential Recession Time Horizon Below you will find a breakdown of how many months pass before a confirmed Economic Recession (shaded grey areas) after the yield curves first definitive turn back up towards the 0% level: 1) 13 Months (Dec 1978 – Jan 1980) 2) 9 Months (Nov 1980 – July 1981) 3) 16 Months (Mar 1989 – Jul 1990) 4) 12 Months (Mar 2000 – Mar 2001) 5) 22 Months (Feb 2006 – Dec 2007) 6) 6 Months (Aug 2019 – Mar 2020) 7) 4 Months so far (Mar 2023 - ????) Average Time frame: 13 months (reasonable time horizon would be 6 – 18 months). I consider the first definitive turn up towards the 0% level as no. 7 on the chart (March 2023). Since this date we have rolled over below the -1% level (see additional chart in comments). March 2023 appears similar to the bounce in Dec 1978 (No. 1 in the chart), it also rolled over to the lower sub -1% level. If we assumed a similar 13 month timeframe to recession commencement as in Dec 1978 of 13 months, which also aligns with our 13 month average above, we would be looking at April 2024 for a recession to commence. Interestingly 1978 - 1980 was a similar peak inflationary period known as the Great Inflation, a defining macroeconomic period of high inflation. You might be wondering, has a recession ever occurred in the month of April before? I personally thought this was a strange month but it has occurred in the past. In April 1960 a recession commenced and lasted 10 months to February 1961. The 1960 recession was mainly a result of an over-tight monetary policy whereby the Federal Reserve raised interest rates from 1.75% in mid-1958 to 4% by the end of 1959 and maintained them at that level until June 1960. The Federal Reserves motive for raising interest rates and maintaining them was fear of high inflation (as in early 1951 inflation soared to +9.5%). Is it just me or is this all starting to sound a little too familiar? If we wanted to cater for all time scenarios in the chart and noted above (no. 1 - 6) we could argue that the start of a recession is possible at the earliest within 6 months (Sept 2023) and at the latest 22 months (Jan 2025). Also, the month of April 2024 has some eerie similarities to two prior recessions, the 1978 and 1960 Recessions. Lucky 13 Since World War 2 bear markets have on average taken about 13 months to reach their bottom and a further 26 months to recover their losses. Our average time before a recession would start is 13 months. It’s worth remembering that it could take an additional 13 months before a bottom is established and then 2 years or 26 months (2 x 13) of price action below the pre-recession price highs. Over 3 years is a long time to wait to recover losses. It would be pertinent to start deleveraging or increasing your hedge from the 6 month mark (Sept 2023 in this case) as subsequently the likelihood of a 3 year period below the Sept 2023 price levels increase as each month passes. For reference the S&P 500 index has fallen an average of 33% during bear markets over the avg. timeframe of 13 months to the bottom. I actually find it very hard to accept that a recession is possible in the near term (within 6 - 12 months) and I would in fact argue against it, however I cannot explain away the data in the chart which speaks for itself and warrants at least some consideration & caution. Nothing is a guarantee and maybe this time it will be different, especially factoring in the amount of unprecedented liquidity added to the market in recent years, sticky inflation and financial supports provided to systemically important banks. All the chart really indicates is a probable window for a recession to start some time between Sept 2023 – Jan 2025 and no guarantees. The rule of 13 is worth remembering, simply from a timing perspective (before and during a recession) as it may help your timing. Based on two similar periods in history, the 1978 and 1960 recessions suggest the month of April 2024 may be a key date. Again, no guarantees. It is also worth noting that for the last six recessions, on average, the announcement of when a recession started was up to 8 months after the fact…meaning we will have no direct indication when a recession starts, however the un-inversion of the yield curve (back above the 0% level) and a rise in unemployment will be the early tells, so these are worth paying attention too. We will keep you posted on any sudden changes in these metrics. I hope the chart is helpful, provides one perspective of which there are many, and can help time and frame the situation we currently find ourselves in. NO GAURANTEES, just probable timeframes that may be worth paying attention too. PUKA List of Recessions: 1. COVID-19 Recession (February - April 2020) 2. The Great Recession of 2008 (December 2007 - June 2009) 3. The September 11 Recession (March - November 2001) 4. The Gulf War Recession (July 1990 - March 1991) 5. The Iran/Energy Crisis Recession (July 1981 - November 1982) 6. The Energy Crisis Recession (January - July 1980) 7. The Nixon Recession (December 1969 - November 1970) 8. The “Rolling Adjustment” Recession (April 1960 - February 1961) 9. The Eisenhower Recession (August 1957 - April 1958) 10. The Post-Korean War Recession (July 1953 - May 1954)
FRED:T10Y2Y
by PukaCharts
5
MACRO WYCKOFF/ HALVENING OBSERVATIONI just wanna share some of the things I worked on it's still incomplete, and still adding some of my analysis I used Wyckoff theory, pattern recognition(This cannot predict the future but it can help us define what can are the possible moves that btc will do) Observation : -Every 1st month of the day of 365 days before halvening, btc tends to show sos sign of strength.. then it starts showing SOW (SIGNS OF WEAKENESS) OR spring /st ("Springs or Shakeouts usually occur late within the trading range and allow the market and its dominant players to make a definitive test of available supply before a markup campaign will unfold. If the amount of supply that surfaces on a break of support is very light (low volume ), it will be an indication that the way is clear for asustained advance. Heavy supply here will usually mean a renewed decline. Moderate volume here may mean more testing of support and to proceed with caution. The spring or shakeout also serves the purpose of providing dominant interests with additional supply from weak holders at low prices.")similar to smc obj -Another thing is that every havening, the bull run tends to cut the percentage to half each halvening using measurement from bottom to top of the uptrend bull(2000++% 1st havening)2nd reaccumulation (1000++%) (500++%) 2nd halvening) (250++% 3rd halvening) if by any chance it will half again I'm expecting a 125%++ percentage which will hit to 150Kvalue. -Are we still going to have a spring? then we reaccumulate like what happened to the 3rd halvening? or other schematics of accumulation trading range phases? - Every distribution schematic it always level out before the break out (before PSY "Preliminary Supply"(distribution side) or the end (retest of PHASE E) of accumulation side) -Spring/ stb level always has the same level of a previous spread out before the phase of preliminary support -Like the 2nd or 3rd halvening or re accumulkation if it doesn't hit the top or the UTAD level of distribution it tends to create re accumulation. Thank you. DYOR 1st halvening - 2nd halvening - 3rd halvening - 1hr distribution -
INDEX:BTCUSD
by markdemesa99
Smells Like HopiumI don't post much; mostly I just watch and observe. But at this point in time, I cannot help my self. I'm seeing way too much joy and optimism in markets over the last few weeks. The smell of strong hopium in the air is pungent, especially in crypto. Lots of traders I follow are posting 10-12x posts a day talking about bullish action...lots of screams of "333% PUSH!", "555% EASY!", etc. etc. You know who you are. Time for some real talk--crypto autumn is over and winter is just about to begin. Let's do the math...using "King Crypto" BTC as a guide. Here we see the 2W chart and the story is clear. I like the 2W time frame as a starting point because if levels out all the BS and allows for clear headedness in lieu of what is obvious hysteria. What are we seeing? 1. Heikin Ashi still points almostly perfectly bearish since the Nov 21 double top. This is a negative. 2. Current price action and all candles are below every channel there is, including KC and Bollinger Band Std Dev 1 and 2. This is super very negative. 3. 2W 50 per EMA is about to death cross 100 per EMA. That's EMA, folks...not simple MA. It will be very hard to see how the next 3 months won't have this cross, but we will wait and see. This is negative. 4. Stochastic has tried 4 times since Nov 21 to break favorable and has failed every time. Short term momentum still under longer term momentum, at the very bottom of the range. This is negative. 5. MACD, while approaching zero on the bars, is persistently below long-term trendlines. This is a negative. 6. On Balance Volume (the ultimate tell) is not even close to breaking favorable. This is negative. Technical analysis, sorting out for all the short-term noise, is all pointing in one direction...downward. From a macro-market analysis, we are just beginning to see the shakeout of the crypto hysteria. Some points: A. Regulation, the "all clear sign" for big money, seems stuck in the muck across numerous geos, because... B. Crypto firms continue to go bust at a rapid pace. Hard to know where to regulate when firms are dying every month. FTX is now "old news", but as yet nobody knows how far the contagion goes. BlockFi this week, likely another before the end of the month. And the "Binance Rescue Fund" (outside of a tweet) is a pipe dream. C. The idea of BTC (or any crypto) as an inflation hedge or safe haven is fully disproven. D. Crypto is now, minus higher variance, inexplicably tied to Tech. Yet even the media hyped, MOMO pushed, fake-out rally in QQQ didn't get to BTC over the last month. E. Recession looms, corporate multiples are still insane, leverage is still too high (in markets, and especially crypto), and fundamental economic dynamics globally are not favorable. All risk assets are still very far away from bottoms, crypto especially. Smoke the hopium all you want, but don't hit that "Buy" button. Long way to go before we are out of the woods. "Roll it up, light it up, smoke it up...Inhale, exhale" - Cyprus Hill.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Imdmagic1
2
The Return of the Golden BullThe Return of the Golden Bull Technical Analysis - Gold has been in a 2 year consolidation, after a 7 year uptrend of over 90% from 2018 to 2020. - Price Action is contracting on a monthly basis, within a bullish pennant. - After an intermediate bear trend of 3 months, Gold is at a massive horizontal support, coming from the 2011 High. - Gold is also right above the rising trendline from the march 2021 low and above the falling trendline from the august 2020 high. - This might be a multi year buying opportunity for Gold, it is hard to put a price target on it, but I would assume around 4000$ could be achieved, if everything goes as expected. Fundamental Analysis - There is also a point to be made for gold, fundamentally. - We are at record inflation, tightening into slowing economic conditions. - Bonds are loosing massively, as are equities and Bitcoin. - Gold has been holding up rather well, despite the US10Y and the DXY rising relentlessly. - In my opinion this is an indicator, that Gold is still the true safe hafen asset to investors, in case of monetary debasement and simultaneously worsening economic conditions. Enter the trade - I am waiting for a short term trend change, as we are currently below the 5, 10, 20, and 50 day moving averages. - I want to see Gold above a rising 5dma, crossing the 10dma. - I am also looking for a weekly close above 1877$. - Gold has been awfully hard to trade in the past months, due to extremely choppy action, often giving daily buy and sell signals on the RSC Trend Trading Indicator, right after each other, so I will be cautious. This is not financial advice, I wish you good luck trading. Cheers Tom
TVC:GOLDLong
by Cyranus
2
T-AT&T- THE CYCLE OF BULL TO BEAR OVER THE DECADES! SHORT!Find out the latest details on AT&T NYSE:T . Have the bulls completely lost their momentum? In this video I go through the macro view on AT&T and discuss their debt and cash flows and there future. Is this a good stock to buy and hold for your portfolio? Find out here! Disclaimer I’m not a certified financial planner/advisor, a certified financial analyst, an economist, a CPA, an accountant, or a lawyer. I’m not a finance professional through formal education. The contents on this TA,(Technical Analysis) are for informational and educational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, trading, accounting, or legal advice. I can’t promise that the information shared on my posts is appropriate for you or anyone else. By using or reading this technical analysis or site, you agree to hold me harmless from any ramifications, financial or otherwise, that occur to you as a result of acting on information found on this analysis, or post.
NYSE:TShort
by CryptoBuzzAnalyst
Macro view Siacoin30 cents is a reasonable price range for Siacoin to reach this coming cycle. We had an approximately 85% correction from the high in April. We saw the same type of correction from June to November 2017. Next rally up will probably be around 1500% from where we are right now. There are lots of people saying this is some super cycle and the rising won't stop, it's reminiscent to what i've experienced in 2017.. But once Bitcoin tops (which it will between 150 and 300k probably) everything will go into a multi year bear market again. So get out when you've realized your profits. And get back in when correction levels are around 80% again.
KRAKEN:SCUSDLong
by Bittimmer
4
EURNZD - Macroeconomic, Global Macro...EUR is the most inflationary currency, whereas NZD is the most deflationary. Based on Micro Bias, Global Macro Bias, and other factors... My strognerst number was never assigned to this pair.... Consequently, I will maintain my short position in the EURNZD, and based on current information, we might continue in this manner for another week... Someone among you who has been following the previous three transactions on the EURNZD, Continue reading and don't shut your browser! :)
Short
by Idealadvantage
NZD-USD Fundemental and Macro AnalysisThis weekend's market is expected to be relatively quiet. They will not produce large effects or move, and they will most likely not affect all pairings. We should proceed with caution, but the New Zealand dollar and the United States dollar have a very high possibility of gaining ground because of recent performance and statistics that I have obtained. After that, I'm going to stick with this currency pair for the weekend. Everyone should use caution, even if they have high expectations.
Long
by Idealadvantage
BTCUSD Big PictureBTCUSD price started for as low as $0.00008, while it was initially released on the 9th of January, 2009. Just like the Evolution of the Earth, it moved gradually pip by pip until there was a major outburst from August 2017. December 2017, BTCUSD price crashed from $20,000 to estimately $3,000 by January, 2019 through March 2020. The Demand for Bitcoin really increased which pushed the price to $67,000 last month, making it the All time high and ever since then it is in the $60,000 range. Looking forward to see BTCUSD at $1,000,000 comes next decade.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by OceanMan1000
Thoughts on macro conditions for European banksIt is no secret that in the Basel III era, the core profitability of European banks has not been satisfactory. While European banks' return on equity is not even close to the pre-07 levels and falls short on their cost of capital, US banks enjoy double-digit ROE and significantly higher valuations. This mismatch made me wonder whether the current macroeconomic landscape gives EU banking some hope for a rebound and closing the US-EU profitability gap. At the first sight, forward-looking macro indicators seem to be favourable for EU banks. GDP growth rapidly accelerated after the 2020 slump, inflation is remarkably high and the central bank will have to increase interest rates sooner than later. But still, return on equity and consequently, valuations of European banks still look quite modest when compared to their US equivalents. The underlying problem behind the profitability underperformance of European banks is overcapacity. Competitive pressure is high and additionally, banks have to deal with the increasing fintech sector. The problem could be targeted by the supervisors (higher capital requirements for new entrants, lack of “credible integration plans'' etc) but market forces are necessary to successfully combat low concentration. Historically, the years following implementation of more strict regulation (Basel III) should result in decreased profitability of banks (no surprise) and consequently more movement towards higher market concentration. However, last year M&A volume in European banking was far from impressive. According to the KPMG European Banking Consolidation report, the volume of mergers and acquisitions involving European banks in 2020 reached its lowest level since the 07-08 crisis. To be clear, a strong downtrend in the M&A volume has been observed since 2010 so the COVID-19 outbreak in 2020 was not a direct cause. The current financial landscape seems to be favourable for mergers and acquisitions volume increase. Low interest rates, relatively cheap bank equity, loosening of M&A regulation and need for restructuring in response to digital transformation. Thus, forecasts for the M&A volume in banking are relatively generous. The exogenous determinants I described are only a fraction of the whole banking landscape. Bank-specific factors and digital transformation are equally valid components. Nevertheless, bearing in mind the historical tendency of banks to concentrate more in response to new regulations and promising M&A volume outlook, I am optimistic.
XETR:CXPBLong
by UnknownUnicorn27189777
Macro analysis of the Crypto market in relation to equities/DXYIn order to go long: I want to see COINBASE:BTCUSD push through the .5 fib convincingly as well as test that incoming pitchfork after yesterday's doji candle. You can see that I have overlayed BTC shorts on the same chart. They were inching up earlier, but have resumed the floor it's been testing. The AMEX:SPY seems confused going into the weekend (won't let me tag ES). Holding 4093 which was a major support this week, along with 4085, even though the waters were tested this AM in the futures market. The Overnight Reverse Repurchase Agreements on the bottom show that the Treasury is not done and supporting this market heavily still. If equities can hold off from dumping, we may see the Crypto Total Market Cap test it's Spring highs this upcoming Winter. Right now that CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL is meeting resistance around 1.5T. The DXY has rallied slightly off COMC news on Wednesday that inflation is still transitory, despite missing projections. If we can see the dollar lose some strength here we would see the S&P rally like we saw from Nov-Feb as well as in April, which would be fantastic. We can see the BTC.D is rising and it is yet to be seen if BTC.D will bounce off of 50%. If BTC.D can rage along with the Total Crypto Market Cap, I expect alts to be okay and BTC fomo to take place. Idiots that are holding too many alts and bought all the alt dips after purchasing the top will probably get burnt and I wouldn't be surprised to see something similar to what we saw around Thanksgiving 2020 when the Crypto market sold off prior to it's massive growth in late 2020 into early 2021. Lastly, pending the EIP1559 upgrade on Aug 4th, I projected a price of 2500 a week or so ago on COINBASE:ETHUSD (not on here, but I don't really give a damn - that's still my target). I expect volatility that day and for many traders to take this upgrade as a "sell the news" opportunity. However, if BTC breaks through the pitchfork as I alluded to in the first sentence, this 2500 target may be smashed through and CRYPTOCAP:ETH.D might give BTC.D a run for it's money if the news really picks up on it. I would love to see 1559 force ETH to challenge previous ATHs, but we will have to wait on the market to open Sunday, in addition to what Crypto has in store for us over the weekend. For awhile, the only thing certain was a crypto sell-off during the weekend, but last week the market really recovered into what we have at the moment.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by Abstractions
Ethereum it's prepare for the grow up in the next weeks!!!In this macro-analysis looking in weekly timeframe. Ethereum make the confirmation in the past weeks and we see a good signal that Ethereum it's extremely bullish in the next weeks. I apply the Fibonacci and we see another extra confirmation above of $1,400 USD that was an important support to valid that the Ethereum bull run it's true. And looking the monthly timeframe, remember that Ethereum it's so bullish in this timeframe and I have my targets at $10,000 USD, $20,000 USD and also $30,000 USD it';s possible huge objective. Now, if you see in medium term, we have the $3,000 USD, $4,000 USD and $5,000 USD for the Ethereum price. That it's in weekly timeframe and I have these targets that we can to see around o this next bullish movement on Ethereum, but obviously we are approaching to $2,000 USD. Guys, if you like this idea and you found out good contents in my Ethereum macro-analysis. I invite you to share this analysis with others traders, Ethereum enthusiastic and people who want to know the Ethereum trend, and the rest o crytpo-community.
COINBASE:ETHUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
6
I will going to bougth Silver!!! Why?Hello, in that analysis on macrotrend and dedicated more to invest for commodities, specially Silver. We see that monthly timeframe it's so bullish in long term toward to reach up new higher price. So, Silver show us a good opportunity to continue bought Silver contracts in any broker. I use Prime XBT and with Prime XBT you can to multiply your bitcoin and apply this strategy, So, for that reason, I foudn out this analysis very interesting if you want to invest in Silver for bought assets or bought by contract just the increment your capital. But for that reason, Silver it's a metal very important and the use it's money like Gold to protect and store your money value in the hard assets that are autonomous, soberany and solid assets that they'll protect your money agains the inflation. In that case, the U.S. Dollar it's the unique currencies that has been devaluated their value in front of other assets, specially Bitcoin. So guys, I say you again, the U.S. Dollar it's not support for much, this will be weakness as central bank create and print out more money incontrolable, for that you need to wake up in this situation on how the central bank of your country it's be benefited throughout of the ignorance that people don't know it how monetary system work. For that, I bought Silver oz to multiply my Bitcoin quantity in Prime XBT. So, you can to buy Silver becuase in the monthly timeframe we confirm that Silver goes to up. But my own reccomendation it's to put a buy order limit. In my case, I put a buy order limit at $24.40 USD with a SL at $20.70 USD and my own target profit will be the maximum price that are the $50 dollars.
FOREXCOM:XAGUSDLong
by harisonhbn9718
Overview Market Analysis: Great Britain Pound still bullish!!!In this macroanalysis, we see that Pound still bullish against the U.S. Dollar and then, the inflation of the U.S. Dollar it's another siganl that FED ccontinue unstable the U.S. policy market. That it's a big warning to invest in United States, as the correlation on Bitcoin it's the same of Great Britain Pound that continue bullish. So, we are in the bearish cycle for the U.S Dollar and bullish cycle for the Great Britain Pound. Now, looking in weekly update, I put a new important key trend line support that Pound still bullish. My next target will be the $1.43 USD. That it's so amazing to know it and put a long position in GBP/USD with good lots to make near of 800 pips. But,if you're looking in monthly chart, the trend on Pound it's so bullish and I have a forecast that Pound could reach up toward the $1.62 USD. What do you think about this overview? Could Pound continue agains the rival U.S. Dollar, and America could to have an issue to collapse the economy based in the more inflation?
Long
by harisonhbn9718
1