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Macroecomonics

Current odds for Scenarios 1, 2, and 3If we drop below 3075, either it would quickly drop more to 3000+ or quickly get rejected. Either way, the longer term would still be bullish. Although the drop to 3000 would take some time to reconsolidate...it really all depends on the macro context, remember this is all based on sentiment and future outlook...if the future starts looking bleak, expect that to be reflected in the market. The VIX index jumped up above 30, hitting as high as 32.22, which is the limit, or event horizon for market panic (anything > 32). But it came back into the "normal" regime. Let's see how the day plays out.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by traderofoptions
1
Waiting for the stark reality of economy to be exposed!Op-ed: The charts show global stocks could retest their March lows later this year www.cnbc.com Key points: From a technical analysis perspective , global stock indexes in March wiped out critical long-term support factors pertaining to the entire multiyear rallies since the conclusion of the global financial crisis bear markets, that have driven many stock indexes to all-time highs. From our technical perspective, although the short-term outlook into June remains for further upside, we do not see most of the major benchmarks challenging the current 2020 cycle highs. Given that markets remain contained below the peaks from the first quarter of 2020 at the end of the second quarter and taking into consideration the above-mentioned damage inflicted to the long-term charts, the threat in the next two quarters is for a roll back down lower into the very wide ranges established by the first-quarter sell-offs. From a macroeconomic perspective , a more negative outlook could be driven by the lifting of lockdowns allowing for the removal of fiscal accommodation by governments, which could expose the stark reality of a post-pandemic global economy, damaged by the measures taken during global lockdowns. Furthermore, there is also the risk of a second wave of coronavirus cases and deaths as lockdowns are eased, potentially seeing lockdown measures reinstated. Finally, the growing resumption of tensions between China the U.S. (as well as other nations), could lead to a renewal of the 2019 trade war. With most commentators agreeing that the economic recovery is likely to be U-shaped at best or even L-shaped at worst, the likelihood of a V-shaped recovery by the global economy seems unlikely, which is likely going to be needed to continue the aggressive V-shaped rebound in stock indexes. In summary then, although the short/intermediate-term outlook remains for renewed upside for the major global stock averages into June, we do not see a resumption of intermediate or longer-term bull trends. Rather, markets could likely be contained within the broader ranges defined by the first-quarter 2020 bear markets, or possibly even into the second half of 2020 to retest the March 2020 bear move lows.
SP:SPXShort
by krisu619
3
INFLATION VS DEFLATION!INDUSTRIAL METAL PRICES HAVE BEEN SQUEEZED BY 2 OPPOSING BUY-SIDE FACTORS: 1) A SLOWING, DEPRESSIONARY WORLD ECONOMY WITH DIMINISHED DEMAND FOR ENERGY AND INDUSTRIAL MATERIALS, ALONG WITH A GLOBAL DOLLAR SHORTAGE! 2) CENTRAL BANKS ENGAGING IN RECORD-LEVEL CURRENCY CREATION COMBINED WITH UNPRECEDENTED FISCAL STIMULUS BY GLOBAL GOVERNMENTS! IF INFLATION PROVIDES SUPPORT TO THE PRICE OF OIL, INDUSTRIAL METALS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN PRICE FROM THEIR '15-'16 BOTTOM!
TVC:USOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn4195243
Short on Rally the NZD/USDThe Nzd/usd is at the top of the range and because of the fundamentals I don't think that the pairs have enough to break the top. Therefore, the rally and any rally should be sold. I am looking to short on the pair for a test of .5900. Stops Weekly test of resistance .6234 close. Only a Weekly close above recent high with Negate this trade. If you're looking to trade this, please make sure that short a time frames are in overbought position to maximize your profit. You can like, provide your comments and feedback, it's appreciated. Let's make some money together Happy Trading Dr. Lydia Smith
Short
by DrLydia
US 30 Short cont.Good morning here in NYC. We see that we have started our reversal. Resistance seems to be strong. We can see price action near the highlighted area. A double top has formed on 4H. Looking at Daily we see confirmation. Macro: China has had a second wave and now U.S. expects that there could be a second. Companies and economy will be effected. As DJI30 consists of 30 companies that were previously affected by the first wave-we can see a recurring event take place. Please feel free to collaborate with my analysis and give input. Thanks!
FX:US30Short
by GEE92
Industrial Production IndexThe Industrial Production Index (IPI) is an economic indicator published by the Federal Reserve Board of the United States that measures the real production output of manufacturing, mining, and utilities. Production indexes are computed mainly as fisher indexes with the weights based on annual estimates of value added. Since Fisher indexes only preserve growth information, the value in the base year (currently 2012) is arbitrarily set at 100. This index, along with other industrial indexes and construction, accounts for the bulk of the variation in national output over the duration of the business cycle.
F
by ZestFi
SPX at the crossroad- Macro overview and economic indicatorsPlease click like and follow me if you like my post. Much appreciated! SPX has been going on a W ride for a while and is currently only down around 15 percent from its mid Feb high, putting it in the midpoint of the correction and recession phase. If this trend continues on, it is safe to expect that SPX will more likely to challenge its mid Feb high than retest its March 23 low. However, the current resistance lvl seems to have stalled its momentum somewhat as the weekly candle indicates an indecisive market sentiment. It is worth to see if there is an accelerating net inflow into bond and equity fund and net outflow from liquid assets such as money market fund & saving deposits and total deposits at US commercial banks in the upcoming weeks. In order to sustain the rally, more investors need to to put their money back into the equity market. Some encouraging news and signs are already happening- *Stocks have vastly outperformed bonds by 11.92 percentage points during the last 20 trading days *Call options far outnumbered put options *VIX is steadily declining and briefly went below 40 few days ago. *Remdesivir- Early result of severe clinical trial is encouraging. Few caveats- Still wait for the result of full clinical trial and more data from randomized controlled trial is needed. Also, the severe trial was conducted without the placebo group, meaning researchers don't not know what would have happened to these patients had they not been given the drug. *Abbott recently announced new coronavirus antibody test that could do up to 20 million screenings in June. This antibody testing allows us to know if someone has been previously infected, if recovered from the infection provides the immunity and how long antibodies stay in the body. *Exponential growth has slowed down a little bit the past few days, but the fatality rate is still climbing. Hospitalized # seems to have flattened the past few days even though the positive testing rate has gone up to nearly 20%. Overall, the growth rate has gone down to the average of single digit 7 % compared to the double digit growth rate few weeks ago. It is safe to assume that US is potentially transitioning from the stage of slowed down exponential growth to the stage of flattened curve. On the other hands, all economic indicators and warning signs point to the rather bleak outlook- *Vast majority of stocks is still below SMA200 and SMA50 *The number of stocks hitting 52-week lows exceeds that of hitting 52-week highs *Retail sales tanked 8.7% in March, the largest decline since the government started tracking retail sales in 1992 *March CPI fell 0.4%, the largest monthly decline since Jan.2015 *Industrial production dropped 5.4% in March, largest drop since 1946 *The March PMI registered 49.1 percent, an 1 percentage drop from the February. The New Orders Index suffered a drastic decline of 7.6 percentage due to the export contraction, suggesting a weakening demand from customers. *Initial claim is down from its peak while continuous claim continues to surge *unemployment rate is projected to be as high as 20% *Crude Oil declined 67.50% since the beginning of 2020 *The NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) Builder confidence in the market for single-family homes plunged 42 points to 30 in April, the lowest point since June 2012 *Building permits in the United States fell 6.8 percent, the sharpest drop since July 2015 *Housing starts in the US plunged 22.3%, the biggest decline in housing starts since 1984 *Small business rescue loan program already hit the $349 billion limit *Massive credit downgrade as corporate earning approaches and many corporate bonds fall to distress lvl *Market-cap to GDP is still in the overvalued zone In the midst of the Covid-19 crisis, central bank launched its latest program that allow foreign central banks to convert their Treasury securities into dollars in order to alleviate the USD shortage problem. This was a response to the ever-increasing liquidity crunch that is rarely seen in traditionally the most liquid market in the world. In recent days, treasury yields have not fallen like they usually do in the past during the event of massive sell-offs in equities. Other worrisome signs are the elimination of reserve requirement and the inclusion of previously excluded category of less-than-investment grade corporate bond to the Fed asset purchases. The result of these drastic measures is sure to ballon the Fed balance sheet, federal deficit and debt-GDP ratio in the near future, further compounding the U.S Debt dilemma. Lastly, the potential danger of second wave infection in China cannot be overstated. The fragility of the global supply chain is already being exposed during the pandemic and the problem will be further exacerbated if the world's second largest economy fails to prevent the re-emergence of virus. Overall, I am cautiously optimistic. There are many potential events and developments to pay attention to such as the serious supply chain bottleneck and essential worker shortage that could trigger the massive sell-off. Also, I am waiting to see how the market will react to the upcoming quarterly GDP, unemployment # and corporate earning. Stay safe out there my friends! Please do your own due diligence. Not the investment advice, just my personal take on the current situation.
SP:SPX
by Libratus
2
3 Phase Projection (Read Description) As shown by the chart, I have projected 3 phases for OIL in the future. The biggest unknown is the time frame exactly each phase will take place. Phase 1: Oil has a massive short term increase in price due to OPEC+ coming together and agreeing on production cuts. Here's why I think that's going to happen: There is not a single oil producing nation that can withstand prices per barrel this low in the long term. All of their balance sheets will be significantly damaged if oil prices remain this low, with many companies going bankrupt. Russia is the country that has agreed to meet up again to discuss production cuts. When OPEC+ disbanded a few weeks ago it was due to Russia and Saudi Arabia not coming to an agreement. Now they are both meeting with one similar goal in mind: to cut production and increase prices. There is only one reason these nations would go back to the bargaining table: to come to an agreement. The only question is how significant the cuts will be. Phase 2: Although prices will increase from news of a new OPEC+ deal and cuts in supply, the underlying fundamental situation (significant decrease in demand due to COVID-19) will keep prices low for the near term, and the selling will remain strong but not as heavy as the past month. I project this phase to last no more than 2 months from now. Phase 3: By summer, COVID-19 cases will be decreasing (and or will have already peaked), and businesses will resume normal operations. Therefore, oil demand will increase until it gets back to normal demand levels, probably by fall. This will be a more gradual price increase over a longer period of time. It may take 6-9 months from now for oil prices to reach the levels they were at before the COVID-19 global economic shock. What are your thoughts? Make sure to follow for more!
FX:USOILLong
by PerryWave
9
Market Overview- Navigate through the unknown BOTTOM territoryMadness cannot even begin to describe what three major indexes went through the past few weeks. Fastest 30% drop ever, followed by equally insane three consecutive days of massive gain last week. It felt like the whole stock market was going through the crypto type of rollercoaster ride! One question remains in every investor's mind... Have we reached the bottom yet? Macro perspective- *QE to infinity with no limits, now includes the municipal and corporate bond in addition to treasury and MBS *1 trillion federal deficit, but the growth was still below 2 percent *2 Trillion relief package that forbids stock buyback and will be enforced with strict oversight *Economic contraction is forecasted to be 15 percent or more in the second quarter *Unemployment is projected to rise to 30 percent in a few months *Q2-Q4 earning will likely be severely impacted In nutshells, the underlying economic condition is already weakened with the crippling amount of national debts. The fact that Fed intends to increase its balance sheet with no limits tells me how desperate Fed is and how dire the economy is. Historical perspective- 11 recessions in the past ended up lasting between 12 to 18 months. Only one of them lasted 2 months. Furthermore, never before has the bottom been reached in the beginning of the recession. Of course, some people believe that this market recession will not last long because unlike the 2008 crisis which was caused by the overheated housing market, this one was caused by the sudden panic sell driven by the external circumstance. Technical perspective- All three major indexes went down around 35% from their Feb. high during this unprecedented crisis, indicating that the market is already in the recession mode. However, Dow has since then bounced back strongly and is currently up around 20% from its low. Technically speaking, the market is not officially in the recession until all three major indexes stay 20% below their highs for at least a month or two. However, It seems that it may not be the case if the current rally continues which will send the Dow back above its 20% drop from the February high and possibly test the resistance lvl at SMA200. Only time will tell. If the market is not at the bottom yet, how much lower can three major indexes go? 50% low from their Feb. high would send three major indexes way blow their 2017 price lvl. If such a scenario plays put, it will send a shockwave throughout the market and exacerbates the already deteriorated investor confidence. I would not pay too much attention to the technical lvl until the VIX goes back down to around 30-40 lvl. During the rare, panic-sell frenzy, anything is possible. We have already witnessed the fastest 30% drop and the biggest 3 day rally in the history so be ready and prepare for anything to happen. Market sentiment- Market sentiment is everything at this point. The impeccable timing of 2 trillion relief bill seemed to have cancelled out the effect of the record high unemployment filing claims last Thursday. Even when U.S infected # exceeded that of china last Friday, the market did not react too drastically. Moreover, Yesterday's announcement of April 30 lockdown extension did nothing but boosting up the market today. Perhaps, the Covid-19 fear is already priced in or the selling pressure is exhausted? Covid-19 progress- The catalyst that summoned up the financial storm will also be the one that ends it. The exponential growth must be stopped before any sense of normalcy can return. By all metrics, growth factor, infected per 1 mil, death per 1 mil, positive %,, # in serious/critical condition, recovery rate, fatality rate all indicate the somber news that the exponential growth is still climbing. Let's take a look at the projection in the website below covid19.healthdata.org Keep in mind that the projection is based on the assumption that most people will follow the social-distancing practice and ventilators will not run out (Ford, GM and Tesla have set out to produce more ventilators). According to the projection, if we don't get the second wave of infection because of the lax lockdown rule or the undetected virus carrier coming from countries that have not yet experienced the outbreak, we should expect everything to return to certain degree of normalcy and economy to begin the recovering process in May. When that happens, investors may not rush back into the stock market in droves, but it could at least serve as the crystal clear sign to investors that the worst part is over.
DJ:DJI
by Libratus
Epidemic is fading & expanding, the Germany recessionThe basic news background is still unchanged: the number of new cases in China is decreasing (+/-500 per day), that is, the epidemic is decreasing. But this is offset by an increase in the number of cases outside of China. And an epidemic from local is increasingly striving to become global. Lockdown in Northern Italy, panic in Iran, growth in the number of cases in South Korea (already under 1000), lower forecasts for financial results from leading companies - all this puts pressure on risky assets, the outcome of which continues. Experts continue to voice new estimates of the damage caused by the epidemic to the global economy. For example, at Oxford Economics Ltd. voiced a specific damage figure: minus $1 trillion of global GDP. Recall that the damage includes direct losses from the downtime of the Chinese economy, losses in tourism and entertainment, as well as in the destruction of global supply chains, a decrease in global trade and investment. At the same time, news about the development of an effective vaccine (the release is scheduled for April), as well as about the desire to allocate about $ 2.5 billion to the Trump administration to fight the epidemic and develop a vaccine, helped to temporarily defuse the situation, which made it possible yesterday to buy gold at great prices. In general, the tactics of buying gold on the slopes proved to be quite effective. So today we will continue to use it, especially since yesterday gave clear price guidelines - where the price might go. Macroeconomic statistics naturally continue to remain in the shadow of news about the epidemic. Nevertheless, we continue to monitor the state of the global economy. Germany reported yesterday on GDP growth rates in the fourth quarter of 2019. Growth turns up zero. Thus, the recession in the leading Eurozone economy was delayed for 3 months. But it looks almost inevitable. Saudi Arabia, meanwhile, pretty upset buyers in the oil market. The point is that OPEC+ was never able to agree on anything. Against the background of expectations of a decrease in oil demand in the world, the news looks like a bearish signal. Recall that we recommend looking for points for oil sales - the fundamental background is so far extremely negative. Well, do not forget to sell euros on growth, as, for example, this could be done yesterday. The economic situation in the Eurozone looks extremely unsightly, and the visit of the coronavirus to Italy (over 200 patients) makes the sale of the euro, in our opinion, an almost risk-free transaction. Our basic positions today are unchanged: we are looking for points for buying gold (but we are careful - we buy on the slopes with mandatory stops), we sell oil, we sell EURUSD, we buy GBPUSD, we sell USDJPY with small stops.
FOREXCOM:XAUUSDLong
by Trade24Fx
2