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Macroeconomics

All Employees to Population Flashing CAUTION!As I have been saying in chat. It is hard to increase revenues, profits, and EPS without more workers producing. We have seen that reality play out in the data. Deporting prime-age labor and imposing taxes on ourselves is certainly not going to help. There is only so much output an economy is capable of. Giving tax cuts to the rich certainly won't change how much output an economy can generate. Reciprocating tariffs certainly won't help exporters grow profit or create jobs. Caution is in order!
FRED:PAYEMSShort
by RealMacro
Prepere yourself for buying opportunities ... So there we are ... CPI little bit higher than exceptating , powel clearly talks about monetary policy and Trump goin wild with tarrifs ... what to except in this macro&political economic driven environment ? I don't think it will grow to extreme values ​​now. Rather, there will be some more carving and from a short-term perspective an opportunity to buy at a good price ... Well, it is very important, at least for me in this environment of a trade war combined with a period when historically the Fed has raised rates and not lowered them as many expect. It is important to take profits and hold losses short and uncompromisingly exit losing positions. The year 2025 will be full of opportunities, which goes hand in hand with pain. What is heaven for one guy is hell for another guy. I am a fan of everyone who tries to make money in this environment and I hope to rob you of your money. Because that is what the market is about. Good luck and enjoy your game
TVC:VIX
by STLMfx
Deposits All Commercial Banks & US DebtWhen a politician and their buddy start spouting nonsense about the US debt spiraling out of control, but then insist that tax cuts are great because they’ll create jobs, and all that money will somehow trickle down to the rest of us, magically boosting tax revenue to "make up" for the lost funds. Especially when that same politician was re-elected bc inflation & the economy were just so horrible, promising he would come in and save the day bringing prices down again with more tax cuts because they worked so great the first time around. That's the extreme right. What about the extreme left #MMT? #MMT is just as bad as MAGAs! They will tell you deficits are great! Deficits add to our savings! Deficits make us all richer! It's accounting, they say! it has to be that way! Except for the little fact that it's not based on empirical evidence. So the next time some B.S. Artist tells you their little version of a fictional money story, you will know what reality is since 2018. You will have seen this chart with your own eyes and cannot unsee it! No matter what you do, no matter what side you lean politically, it's irrelevant. Public debt since the tax cuts have grown exponentially, while the private sector deposits have lagged to the point they have stagnated completely since 2021. Barely rising 6%. Defunding CIA, FBI, USAID, Dept of Education etc.. will do absolutely nothing to make up for all the lost tax revenue since 2018 and the next tax cuts to follow. In fact, when we enter a recession, the deficits will explode even higher as tax revenues collapse and social and economic stabilizers (if there are any left) kick in. Then what? Don't shoot the messenger!
FRED:DPSACBW027SBOGLong
by RealMacro
1
Sell off across U.S. Equity into Monday U.S. openU.S. equity indicies failed to register new highs at the close of inauguration week on the heels of famed Trump 'tariff talk' and the initiation of mass immigration reform. Friday 1/24/2025 we saw the bulls slightly outnumbered by bearish interest before the 'full weight' of the move was felt coming towards the close of Sydney/open of London session into today Monday, January 27 of 2025. The dollar is weak, the price of metals is subdued as of writing and bonds have sky-rocketed across the board in a clear display of a flight to safety (guaranteed interest during a time of uncertainty in RISK-assets). Due to a clear risk off sentiment reflected in the flight to safety in the bond market, I'm calling U.S. equity indicies to be in a sell-off for monday 1/27/2025 across the board. We have MAGS and FAANG earnings reporting this week in addition to an FOMC meeting this coming Wednesday - While the price action might become a blood-bath for a while, it may or may not be part of an over-due correction of a broader sequence.
CBOT:ZT1!Short
by AngelCPeel-Salazar
US DEBT Outpacing Private Credit 2 to 1Money has been around for over 10,000 years! Money is a derivative of private sector(PS) asset/labor producing. Money is not a derivative of Gov Gov borrowing money from the PS with interest to buy money without interest is a recipe for economic disaster. Gov spending currently is over 40% of GDP annually. It used to be under 10% Gov debt benefits the few while socializing those liabilities onto the backs of the many. The many will not realize this is happening until it is too late. The few will sell their bonds, take their money, and move it overseas, collapsing the currency's value, and leaving the many to pay for the debt with taxation, austerity and inflation. (even hyperinflation) The more Gov borrows to deficit spends the more it has to deficit the closer we get to the point of no return. That's what this chart is showing you. The direction we are heading.
FRED:TOTBKCRLong
by RealMacro
Why Tariffs & Why Now?Trump's tariffs aim to reshape international trade. They target imports from China, Mexico, and Canada starting February 1. The president sees tariffs as both a policy tool and a growing revenue stream. By imposing fees on foreign goods, he hopes to protect U.S. industries and encourage fair trade practices. U.S. manufacturers face an uneven playing field when compared to foreign counterparts like those in Mexico and China, due to differences in regulations and quality controls. For instance, China doesn’t have strict regulations like OSHA, which ensures worker safety and environmental standards in the U.S. Additionally, Chinese manufacturers often don't face the same level of quality control scrutiny that domestic manufacturing companies do. These disparities make it difficult to directly compare commodities, as U.S. manufacturers shoulder higher costs to comply with regulations, while foreign manufacturers benefit from fewer restrictions. As a result, domestic manufacturers and distributors struggle to compete on price, which is one of the reasons tariffs are viewed as protecting national strategic interest. Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, in a CNBC interview today from Davos, Switzerland, where the World Economic Forum is taking place said, “I would put in perspective: If it’s a little inflationary, but it’s good for national security, so be it. I mean, get over it.” Citation: www.cnn.com Tariffs are not new to Trump’s strategy. The trade war with China in 2018 established a framework for using tariffs to gain leverage. This latest round builds on that approach, with broader goals for economic influence. Trump has proposed a 10% tariff on Chinese goods. The reasoning ties to China’s fentanyl production and export practices. This decision follows conversations with China’s President Xi Jinping. Trump urged stricter measures against fentanyl production and shipping, linking it to broader trade concerns. American businesses already face up to 25% tariffs on many Chinese imports. These new fees would add further strain to supply chains, raising prices for consumers. However, it will promote domestic manufacturing and bulster this important sector of the economy. Mexico and Canada are also in Trump’s sights. He plans to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from these neighboring countries. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has expressed concerns saying that Canada supplies vital materials like oil, steel, and lumber. He went on to claim that the U.S. Tariffs could disrupt this trade and raise costs for American industries. Both nations aim to avoid direct trade conflict while protecting their economies from potential damage. Trump’s tariffs serve multiple purposes. They are designed to pressure trade partners, reduce deficits, and address what he views as unfair practices. Tariffs also play a role in domestic revenue generation. They are a tax on imported goods, and higher tariffs mean more money for government programs. Economists warn of potential downsides, including higher consumer prices. Some argue that the inflationary effects could complicate the Federal Reserve’s plans for interest rate cuts. Let's explore that further now. What does the data say concerning Tariffs? The ISM Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Managers' Index) is a key economic indicator that measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. Compiled through surveys of supply chain executives, it tracks new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, and inventory levels. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while a reading below 50 signals contraction. As a barometer of economic activity, the PMI provides valuable insight into broader economic trends and business conditions. Since the second half of 2022, the ISM Manufacturing PMI has been in contraction territory, reflecting ongoing struggles in the manufacturing sector. Factors such as high interest rates, which increase borrowing costs for businesses, and weaker global demand have weighed heavily on production. Tariffs, while aimed at protecting domestic manufacturing, could potentially exacerbate these challenges by raising input costs, further pressuring profit margins. Critics argue that higher tariffs could contribute to inflation, limiting the Federal Reserve’s ability to lower interest rates and support broader economic growth. A strong dollar has also added to manufacturers' woes, echoing the environment during Trump's 2017 inauguration. A strong dollar makes U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper, reducing competitiveness for domestic manufacturers. In 2017, the dollar weakened after initial strength leading into the Trump inaguration, providing a temporary boost to manufacturing by making exports more affordable and imports pricier. A similar trend today could aid the sector, but its timing and magnitude remain uncertain, leaving manufacturers navigating a complex and challenging economic environment. A strong dollar is closely tied to domestic interest rates, as higher rates make U.S. financial assets more attractive to global investors. With the Federal Reserve’s benchmark interest rate, or Fed Funds Rate, at elevated levels, there is a strong incentive for multinational corporations and foreign investors to acquire dollars to purchase U.S. Treasuries. These assets offer a combination of safety and competitive yields, drawing capital inflows that drive up demand for the dollar. For instance, the U.S. 2-year Treasury yield currently sits at 4.295%, significantly higher than China’s 2-year yield of 1.26%. This wide yield differential makes U.S. Treasuries a far more appealing investment, strengthening the dollar in the process. The Fed’s success in controlling inflation has further bolstered the dollar's appeal. As inflation trends downward toward the 2% target, the relative stability of the U.S. economy enhances confidence in dollar-denominated assets. This dynamic creates a feedback loop: high interest rates attract foreign capital, which strengthens the dollar, making U.S. exports more expensive and imports cheaper. While this helps curb inflation, it poses challenges for domestic manufacturing by eroding competitiveness. This delicate balance underscores the complexity of managing monetary policy while considering its ripple effects on trade and the broader economy. One bright spot for domestic manufacturing is that it appears to have hit rock bottom after years of sharp declines. Similar to the transportation sector, which shows signs of recovery as reflected in the recent ATA tonnage index, manufacturing seems to be stabilizing. The worst may be over, and the sector is finally showing signs of life. New orders for manufacturing have moved back into growth mode, offering hope for a sustained rebound. This shift signals that demand is returning, which could provide a foundation for manufacturers to rebuild and capitalize on future opportunities.
TVC:DXY
by ZenMode
Behind the Curtain: Top Economic Influencers on ZN Futures1. Introduction The 10-Year Treasury Note Futures (ZN), traded on the CME, are a cornerstone of the fixed-income market. As a vital benchmark for interest rate trends and macroeconomic sentiment, ZN Futures attract institutional and retail traders alike. Their liquidity, versatility, and sensitivity to economic shifts make them a go-to instrument for both speculation and hedging. In this article, we delve into the economic forces shaping ZN Futures’ performance across daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. By leveraging machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, we identify the most impactful indicators influencing Treasury futures returns. These insights can help traders fine-tune their strategies and navigate the complexities of this market. 2. Product Specifications Contract Size: The standard ZN Futures contract represents $100,000 face value of 10-Year Treasury Notes. Tick Size: Each tick corresponds to 1/64 of 1% of par value. This equals $15.625 per tick, ensuring precise pricing and manageable risk for traders. Margins: Approximately $2,000 per contract (changes through time). Micro Contract Availability: While the standard contract suits institutional traders, the micro-sized Yield Futures provide a smaller-scale option for retail participants. These contracts offer reduced tick values and margin requirements, enabling broader market participation. 3. Daily Economic Drivers Machine learning models reveal that daily fluctuations in ZN Futures are significantly influenced by the following indicators: Building Permits: A leading indicator of housing market activity, an increase in permits signals economic confidence and growth. This optimism often puts upward pressure on yields, while a decline may reflect economic caution, boosting demand for Treasuries. U.S. Trade Balance: This metric measures the difference between exports and imports. A narrowing trade deficit typically signals improved economic health, leading to higher yields. Conversely, a widening deficit can weaken economic sentiment, increasing Treasury demand as a safe-haven asset. China GDP Growth Rate: As a global economic powerhouse, China’s GDP growth influences global trade and financial flows. Strong growth suggests robust international demand, pressuring Treasury prices downward as yields rise. Slower growth has the opposite effect, enhancing Treasury appeal. 4. Weekly Economic Drivers When analyzing weekly timeframes, the following indicators emerge as significant drivers of ZN Futures: Velocity of Money (M2): This indicator reflects the speed at which money circulates in the economy. High velocity signals robust economic activity, often putting upward pressure on yields. Slowing velocity, on the other hand, may indicate stagnation, increasing demand for Treasury securities. Consumer Sentiment Index: This metric gauges the confidence level of consumers regarding the economy. Rising sentiment suggests stronger consumer spending and economic growth, often pressuring bond prices downward as yields rise. Conversely, a decline signals economic caution, favoring safe-haven assets like ZN Futures. Nonfarm Productivity: This measures output per hour worked in the nonfarm sector and serves as an indicator of economic efficiency. Rising productivity typically reflects economic strength and may lead to higher yields, while stagnation or declines can shift sentiment toward Treasuries. 5. Monthly Economic Drivers On a broader monthly scale, the following indicators play a pivotal role in shaping ZN Futures: Net Exports: This metric captures the difference between a country’s exports and imports. A surplus indicates strong global demand for domestic goods, signaling economic strength and driving yields higher. Persistent deficits, however, may weaken economic sentiment and increase demand for Treasuries as a safe haven. 10-Year Treasury Yield: As a benchmark for longer-term borrowing costs, movements in the 10-Year Treasury Yield reflect investor expectations for economic growth and inflation. Rising yields suggest optimism about future economic conditions, potentially reducing demand for Treasury futures. Declining yields indicate caution, bolstering Treasury appeal. Durable Goods Orders: This indicator measures new orders placed with manufacturers for goods expected to last three years or more. Rising orders signal business confidence and economic growth, often leading to higher yields. Conversely, a decline in durable goods orders can indicate slowing economic momentum, increasing Treasury demand. 6. Applications for Different Trading Styles Economic indicators provide distinct insights depending on the trading style and timeframe: Day Traders: Focusing on daily indicators like Building Permits, U.S. Trade Balance, and China GDP Growth Rate to anticipate short-term market movements. For example, an improvement in China’s GDP Growth Rate may signal stronger global economic conditions, potentially driving yields higher and pressuring ZN Futures lower. Swing Traders: Weekly indicators such as Velocity of Money (M2), Consumer Sentiment Index, and Nonfarm Productivity could help identify intermediate trends. For instance, rising consumer sentiment can reflect increased spending expectations, potentially prompting bearish positions in ZN Futures. Position Traders: Monthly metrics like Net Exports, 10-Year Treasury Yield, and Durable Goods Orders may offer a macro perspective for long-term strategies. A sustained increase in durable goods orders, for instance, may indicate economic expansion, influencing traders to potentially adopt bearish sentiment on ZN Futures. 7. Conclusion The analysis highlights how daily, weekly, and monthly economic indicators collectively influence ZN Futures. From more immediate fluctuations driven by Building Permits and China GDP Growth Rate, to longer-term trends shaped by Durable Goods Orders and the 10-Year Treasury Yield, each timeframe provides actionable insights for traders. By understanding these indicators and incorporating machine learning models to uncover patterns, traders can refine strategies tailored to specific time horizons. Whether intraday, swing, or long-term, leveraging these insights empowers traders to navigate ZN Futures with greater precision. Stay tuned for the next installment in the "Behind the Curtain" series, where we examine economic drivers behind another key futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZN1!Education
by traddictiv
8
The Macroeconomic Impact of the Latest Inflation Report on USDIntroduction: Inflation data has always been a crucial driver of currency movements, and the upcoming inflation report is no exception. With USD/JPY currently at a pivotal point, traders are closely watching how the figures will influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy trajectory and market sentiment. Current Market Dynamics: The USD/JPY pair has been consolidating within a tight range between and , reflecting traders' caution ahead of the release. Expectations of could push the pair out of its current range. Scenarios and Key Levels: Higher-than-expected inflation: 1.Potential breakout above . Target level: . 2.Lower-than-expected inflation: Retest of and potential slide toward . 3.Neutral inflation figures: Likely continuation of range-bound trading between and . Conclusion and Community Call-to-Action: What are your thoughts on the upcoming inflation report? Will it trigger a significant move in USD/JPY, or will the pair remain range-bound? Share your analyses and charts in the comments below! 👇
by Safaric
Bitcoin & Macro Analysis fo 2025From previous analysis, BTC on target and Hit Fibonacci Extension 1.272 at $108.000 And rejected from this area For now, BTC need pullback before continuing rally You can see pullback area at : - Fibonacci Retracement 0.236 - Fibonacci Retracement 0.386 - Fibonacci Retracement 0.5 Be cautious with your decisions, especially for 2025 , as the Dec 2024 Summary of Economic Projections release has impacted the market. Macro economic conditions are solid, but the Fed's decision left the market disappointed. After release Summary of Economic Projections Dec 18 FOMC, market was disappointed since The Fed's forecast cut rates only 2x or maybe just 1x (3.9) instead of 4x as SEP projected in September (3.4).
INDEX:BTCUSD
by kelvin_gautama9
4-Year Cycles [jpkxyz]Brief Introduction why Crypto moves in Cycles. "Crypto is an expression of Macro." The 2007-2008 global financial crisis was a pivotal moment that fundamentally transformed monetary policy, particularly in how central banks manage economic cycles through liquidity manipulation. Before the crisis, central banks primarily used interest rates as a blunt instrument for economic management. The 2008 financial crisis exposed deep vulnerabilities in the global financial system, particularly the interconnectedness of financial institutions and the risks of unregulated credit markets. In response, central banks, led by the Federal Reserve, developed a more sophisticated approach to economic management: 1. Quantitative Easing (QE) The Federal Reserve introduced large-scale asset purchases, essentially creating money to buy government bonds and mortgage-backed securities. This unprecedented monetary intervention: - Prevented a complete economic collapse - Provided liquidity to frozen credit markets - Kept interest rates artificially low - Supported asset prices and prevented a deeper recession 2. Synchronized Global Monetary Policy Central banks worldwide began coordinating their monetary policies more closely, creating a more interconnected approach to economic management: - Coordinated interest rate decisions - Shared information about economic interventions - Created global liquidity pools 3. Cyclical Liquidity Management The new approach involves deliberately creating and managing economic cycles through: - Periodic liquidity injections - Strategic interest rate adjustments - Using monetary policy as a proactive economic tool rather than a reactive one The 4-year cycle emerged as a pattern of: - 2-3 years of expansionary policy - Followed by a contraction or normalization period This cycle typically involves: - Expanding money supply - Lowering interest rates - Supporting asset prices - Then gradually withdrawing support to prevent overheating The 2007-2008 crisis essentially forced central banks to become more active economic managers, moving from a passive regulatory role to an interventionist approach that continuously adjusts monetary conditions. This approach represents a significant departure from previous monetary policy, where central banks now see themselves as active economic architects rather than passive observers.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by jpkxyz
Macroeconomic analysis, positioning, technical analysis. Short GHello everyone, today I want to share a trading idea that recently triggered my short entry. The GBP/AUD pair is hovering near period highs not seen since 2020. I think in the short term we might witness some pullback. Let’s analyze the situation. MACROECONOMIC ANALYSIS - Data The latest data reflects a marked improvement in the Australian labor market, with the unemployment rate beating expectations. A rise to 4.2% was forecasted, but the figure dropped to 3.9%. This comes after the RBA decided to keep the reference rate unchanged, adopting a dovish tone compared to recent statements. It remains to be seen if this data could shift the narrative once again. - Economic growth The positioning and momentum on the pound indicate confidence that the economy could grow by 2025 or that inflation will remain stickier than expected. This affects the BOE’s monetary policy decisions. Interest rates have risen more than in other economies and are now at their peaks. On the other hand, the BOE recently adopted a dovish tone, suggesting the possibility of four rate cuts in 2025. In a recent article, Goldman Sachs highlighted that the UK’s growth might underperform expectations. UK GDP is expected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, slower than the Bank of England's 1.5% projection and slightly below Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 1.3%. The team predicts growth of 0.4% in the first quarter of 2025 compared to the last quarter of 2024, with a slowdown to around 0.25–0.30% quarterly for the remainder of the year. They also foresee inflationary pressures easing through 2025, paving the way for deeper rate cuts than currently priced in by the market. www.goldmansachs.com - Interest rates Interest rates in the UK have risen more than in other economies, reaching a peak of 4.6%, reflecting aggressive rate policies. Meanwhile, AUD/USD movements appear closely tied to Chinese rates, which are at historic lows, potentially priming for a rebound and, consequently, a recovery in the cross, due to potential stimulus measures for the Chinese economy. POSITIONING - COT (Commitment of Traders) Let’s analyze the COT to check for extremes on either side. www.tradingster.com . Long positioning on the pound is at its highest since 2018, while for the Australian dollar, we are in negative territory after a decline. Momentum does not favor either currency, as traders are offloading or increasing short positions. SEASONALITY We are entering a period of strong negative seasonality for the pound, which typically tends to decline from the first week of December until the end of the month. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS From a chart perspective, the pair has just broken a dynamic trendline support on the 4H chart after a strong rally to period highs. The RSI clearly shows overbought conditions with bearish divergence. Entry: Upon the break or retest of the trendline. Stop Loss: Above the volume area signaling the break. Take Profit: Near the volume area supporting the price. Thanks for your attention!
Short
by Riikkss
GOLD BUY NOW! TA & FA confirmed!SAXO:XAUUSD Technical Analysis gives us clue for GOLD to move higher and higher. We can see in M30 chart that bullish pennant already made and GOLD continue to make a breakout movement. In H4 chart we can see a trendline resistance also already tested. Now GOLD just test a fibbo daily resistance at 2675-2677. Confirm BUY if it's body in H4 already break it. As middle east war remain in uncertainty and Syria President's Assad knocked down, also Russia - Ukraine potentially cause more intentions, investors looking for safe haven assets like GOLD. We also must remember that Trump Supply Side Economic will take control again and it gives optimism in US macro-economic conditions. Inflation currently in path to go down 2.00% but Trump second era would potentially increase inflation for a longer projection. Although now investor and traders in CME bet 86% for FED Cut Rate this month and this is something that makes GOLD moves higher Any idea? just leave your comment below. Thanks
SAXO:XAUUSDLong
by vicariuzchrist
Macroeconomic History Tells Us Rough Times Are AheadIn 2023, I did a write up on TradingView about how there is a positive correlation between interest rates and equities, meaning that equites tend to decrease when interest rates decrease. However, correlation does not equal causation. The real correlation is between poor economic data and the stock market, where the poor economic data spurs interest rate cuts and causes a fall in equities. The recent surprisingly bad July jobs report jolted the markets, and reasonably so. The Fed decided to hold interest rates steady in July, causing some to think that they may be behind the curve. Not to mention the Sahm Rule flashed positive; an economic observation that has never been wrong in being a precursor to a recession. fred.stlouisfed.org I am of the party that the Fed is behind the curve In the past, Jerome Powell has stated that he doesn't expect a "severe" recession, and that there could be a "softish" landing, hinting at the difficulties that the Fed faced in preventing a recession altogether. I believe that the stock market will continue to fall, mixed with large rallies (which will make buying the bottom difficult), and I think this will play out for many months. So what's my plan? I sold my LEAPS before the poor jobs market data was released, saving my bacon to be honest. I sold my HOOD profits as well, as I had made a 100% return. I then took both and dumped the funds into QQQ. I do not hold cash in case I am wrong. I would rather be wrong and invested than wrong and sitting on cash. I plan on waiting until the Q's drop another 20% or so before buying LEAPS. Typically, I advise only to put 10% into LEAPS, but this could be a rare opportunity where risk on could pay of in a big way. When I do decide to jump in, I will buy LEAPS with expirations two years out. I want to give them the longest time frame possible because I know I won't be able to time the bottom perfectly. The real risk is waiting too long Wait too long, and I miss a big opportunity. However, being exposed to equities, I'll still ride the wave up. If I'm wrong altogether, I'm still invested in equities and will ride the wave up. I will still be somewhat hesitant to invest into LEAPS through this rate cutting cycle considering history warns against leveraging into QE. Thank you for coming to my Ted Talk. InTheMoney
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by InTheMoneyAdam
2
US Debt Exploding Relative To Real GDPUS debt has risen more than 90% since 2016, with no meaningful increase in economic growth inflation-adjusted (Real terms) meaning we pay more for goods and services showing a higher nominal GDP. As you can see in the chart the economy used to grow faster than debt and even outpaced debt in 70s, 80s and 90's. As I have shown before on tradingview, The annual US Gov't spending as a percentage of annual GDP is now 45% and it has been even higher. My question to you is this. next recession when Real GDP falls and politicians tell you we have to increase deficits and spending to "stimulate" the economy. How much higher will the debt go relative to real GDP?
FRED:GDPC1Long
by RealMacro
Light Crude Oil Futures: Bulls vs. Bears – Big Moves ComingAlright, trading fam, let me set the scene. We’re sitting at $69.40 right now, and the market is coiling like a wave that’s either going to barrel or wipe out everyone trying to ride it. This is one of those setups that makes you lean in because, whichever way it goes, it’s going to be a ride. You ready? Bearish Path – Things Could Get Real Slippery If the price slips below $62.30, it could open up a steep drop to as low as $17.12. Yeah, that’s a long way down. It’s like paddling into the wrong break and realizing there’s no way out without eating sand. If the bears manage to break that key support, all bets are off. Think demand drops, rising inventories, or a stronger dollar that sends oil spiraling lower. Traders who’ve been short are already eyeing this level—if it breaks, they’ll be riding that wave all the way down. Bullish Path – Eyes on the Double Top But here’s the flip side: if the bulls show up and break through $89.10, we’re talking about a potential double top formation. And if that double top gives way? It’s all gas, no brakes, with $129.25 in sight. It’ll take some momentum to push through—maybe supply cuts or geopolitical tensions—but if the bulls catch that wave, it could be a smooth ride to higher levels. What’s the Move? Right now, it’s all about staying patient and reading the flow. If $62.30 holds, you know the bulls still have some fight in them. But if they lose that level, the bears are going to have a field day. On the other hand, if the bulls break through $89.10, it’s game on to higher highs. This is one of those trades where the chart is giving us clear levels, and now it’s just a matter of who takes the wheel. If this breakdown gave you some clarity, follow, share, and pass it along to anyone else riding these markets. Let’s keep an eye on these levels and catch the right wave when it comes. Mindbloome Trader
NYMEX:CL1!
by Mindbloome-Trading
Will the revealed labor data continue to support USDJPY?Macro theme: - The latest Sep NFP, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings have all surpassed market expectations. As a result, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the 32% probability of a 0.50% rate cut in November has been eliminated, shifting the odds toward a likely rate freeze instead. - Japan's newly appointed economic minister expressed support for further interest rate hikes as long as they do not destabilize the economy or markets, signalling confidence in the BoJ's approach. - The yen's outlook remains uncertain, influenced by the robust US labor market and ambiguity surrounding the BoJ's potential rate hikes. Technical theme: - USDJPY quickly recovered from the previous downtrend and closed above both EMAs, indicating a solid upward momentum. - If USDJPY extends its gain to close above 149.25, USDJPY may retest the resistance around 152.00. - On the contrary, a failure to close above 149.25 may prompt a temporary correction within 147.30-149.25 until an apparent breakout occurs. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Long
by DatTong
Global Liquidity Index Against BTCHeres the global liquidity index mapped against BTC and its past cycle data for reference. Im sure you can spot the positive correlation it has.... When global liquidity increases, risk on assets such as BTC increase due to an influx of new liquidity in money markets. We have been consolidating for 2 years in the global liquidity index in an ascending triangle. I am expecting it to push up, break out, retest similar to the prior cycle fractal and continue higher, in turn pushing money markets including BTC into ATHs
Long
by marshyyy
1
$EUIRYY -CPI (September/2024)ECONOMICS:EUIRYY (Eurozone Inflation Data; September/2024) source: EUROSTAT - Annual inflation rate in the Eurozone fell to 1.8% in September 2024, the lowest since April 2021, compared to 2.2% in August and forecasts of 1.9%, preliminary estimates showed. Inflation is now below the ECB target of 2%. Prices fell much more for energy (-6% vs -3%) and inflation slowed for services (4% vs 4.1%) while prices for food, alcohol and tobacco increased slightly more (2.4% vs 2.3%). Meanwhile, core inflation rate also eased to 2.7% from 2.8%. Among the bloc's largest economies, inflation slowed in Germany (1.8% vs 2%), France (1.5% vs 2.2%), Italy (0.8% vs 1.2%), Spain (1.7% vs 2.4%). The ECB expects inflation to rise again in the latter part of 2024, partly because previous sharp falls in energy prices will drop out of the annual rates. Inflation should then decline towards 2% over the second half of 2025.
ECONOMICS:EUIRYY
by Mr_J__fx
IMPORTANT Macroeconomics: What is the trade balance?IMPORTANT Macroeconomics: What is the trade balance? The trade balance is an important economic indicator that can have a significant influence on the stock markets. Here is a simple explanation of this concept and its potential impact: What is the trade balance? The trade balance represents the difference between the value of a country's exports and imports over a given period. In other words: - If a country exports more than it imports, its trade balance is in surplus (positive). - If a country imports more than it exports, its trade balance is in deficit (negative). Impact on the stock markets The influence of the trade balance on the stock markets can vary depending on whether it is in surplus or deficit: Trade balance surplus A trade surplus can generally have a positive impact on the stock markets: - It indicates strong competitiveness of domestic companies in international markets. - It can strengthen the value of the national currency, which can attract foreign investors. -Exporting companies may see their shares increase in value. Trade deficit A trade deficit can have a negative impact on stock markets: -It can indicate a weakness in the domestic economy or a loss of competitiveness. -It can weaken the domestic currency, which can discourage foreign investors. -The shares of companies dependent on imports may be negatively affected. Important nuances It is crucial to note that the impact of the trade balance on stock markets is not always direct or predictable: -Overall economic context: Other economic factors can attenuate or amplify the effect of the trade balance. -Investor perception: The reaction of the markets often depends on how investors interpret the trade balance figures in relation to their expectations. -Specific sectors: Some sectors may be more affected than others by changes in the trade balance. In conclusion, although the trade balance is an important indicator, its influence on stock markets must be seen in the broader context of the economy and investor sentiment.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Le-Loup-de-Zurich
Will the escalation of the Middle East tension boost the dollar Macro theme: - The dollar strengthened after Fed Chair Jerome Powell struck a more hawkish tone last week, scaling back traders' expectations of another 0.50% rate cut at the next meeting. - The safe-haven demand following the possibility of Middle East escalation boosted the dollar. - The US Aug JOLTS data showed 329,000 more jobs, indicating a more robust labor market than anticipated. Technical theme: - From the 4-hour chart, DXY broke its Wedge pattern and closed above both EMAs with the golden cross. This indicates a potential recovery from its previous sideways-down trend. - If DXY breaks above 101.33, the index may strengthen to retest 101.80 resistance confluences with its descending trendline. - On the contrary, DXY may retest 100.90-101.00 before upward movement. Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
TVC:DXYLong
by DatTong
Nvidia Go Bye Bye | Short or Take Profits Whenever news commentators feel the need to interview a CEO, and hail the CEO as some kind of benevolent "hero of the people", that is a pretty good indicator that something is awry. The same applies for rampant social media hype. At the end of the day, the chart & the macro backdrop tell the real story. NASDAQ:NVDA will collapse from here. Don't bother trying to buy any time soon, you will only be hurting yourself; this thing, along with the broader market has some significant adjusting (downward) to work through.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by ChiefMacro