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Macroeconomics

Ambiguous NFP and a busy week aheadLast week ended for the dollar is not the best way. Statistics on the US labor market came out slightly worse than expected: +145K new jobs outside agriculture instead of the expected +160K. On the one hand, it’s okay, but on the other hand, after +200K of employment from ADP, it seems to be not enough. On the whole, our predictions for NFPs based on statistical laws can be justified: two excesses by the fact of the forecast must be followed by lag from expectations. Perhaps the most annoying thing for us happened in the USD/CAD pair. Recall, we recommended news trading. And the news came out almost ideal for reducing the pair: relatively weak data on the USA against the background of strong data on Canada (employment +35K with a forecast of +25K). But the decline in USD/CAD was very limited and earnings of 15-20 points cannot be considered as such. Total, the week is clearly an asset to the dollar, but so far we see the growth of the dollar exclusively as an opportunity for its sales to be more expensive. And the numbers on the NFP have more likely confirmed our position than disproved. So this week we will continue to look for opportunities for dollar sales. The main candidates for this are the pair with the Japanese yen and the British pound. The first is interesting to us as an asset-refuge and just the entry points themselves are magnificent. As for the British pound, Brexit is confidently moving in the right direction, but the pound has lingered. Accordingly, we expect that already this week he will rush to catch up. In our opinion, another interesting asset for trading this week is gold. The inability of sellers to sell 1550 is the best confirmation of the appropriateness of buying gold. In any case, the deal is worthwhile: with relatively small stops (placed below 1440), goals can be set very ambitiously. Recall, we believe that gold should test 1800 this year. The new week promises to be quite saturated with macroeconomic statistics, especially in the USA and Great Britain. Which, again, will almost certainly be accompanied by the appearance of points for entering positions.
Short
by Trade24Fx
4
OPEC meeting, Bank of Canada decision and Eurozone GDPWe start with macroeconomic statistics, it is worth noting the extremely weak employment rate from ADP: +67 thousand jobs with a forecast of +135 thousand. So, buyers of the dollar should at least focus, because if similar statistics come out on Friday on the NFP, the dollar may well be sold out. Statistics on business activity in the Eurozone came out surprisingly good, which intensified the talks that the European economy was beginning to recover. The pound also got its reason for growth, as the UK business activity index also exceeded forecasts. Although we note that it was still below 50. It is rather symptomatic that the pound continues to grow without waiting for the election results. The markets decided that Brexit’s fate is predetermined (there will be no way out without a deal), but the pound is still very cheap, you need to buy it before it’s too late. We have long been bulls as for pound, so nothing surprising happens to us. We only note that a daily close above 1.30 is a strong bullish signal. And the pound may grow more than one hundred pips. So we are looking for points for his purchases. The Bank of Canada did not change the rate yesterday but was quite optimistic in its comments, which contributed to the growth of the Canadian dollar. So those readers who were following our recommendations could put in their piggy bank a good profit. Despite the extremely frightening information at the beginning of the week, the negotiation process between the US and China continues. And according to its participants, by December 15, the first phase should be completed. As for today the macroeconomic statistics, the news of the day will be the publication of Eurozone GDP. The fact may likely be higher than forecasts. This means that the euro may well strengthen up to 1.1160 paired with the dollar. Well, the main event of the week, at least for the oil market, will be the beginning of the OPEC meeting in Vienna. The most likely scenario is an attempt to leave everything as it is. That is, they will adhere to the current line of behaviour (an agreement to reduce production by 1.2 million b / d). For oil, this decision, by and large, does not change anything in terms of fundamental alignment. But any agreements to increase the limits will play into the hands of buyers and vice versa. Refusal of the deal in any form will be a strong hit to oil and activates its sellers.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
Good news from US, dollar & new threatsA lot of macroeconomic statistics was published yesterday, however, it did not lead to significant movements. GDP was revised upwards 2.1% instead of preliminary 1.9%, and durable goods orders exceeded the most optimistic expectations (+ 0.6% m / m instead of -0.9% m / m). Well, the number of people receiving unemployment benefits in the United States so generally reached the lowest level since 1973. However, people were not in a hurry to buy a dollar in the foreign exchange market. Even against the backdrop of news that another progress has been made in the negotiation process between the US and China: Trump said that phase 1 of the trade transaction is close to its completion. The lack of reaction to such a clear fundamental positive, in our opinion, is very symptomatic. Accordingly, we are not going to revise our recommendation to “sell the dollar”. On the contrary, thanks to yesterday's data, sale for the dollar against the euro and the Japanese yen became simply excellent as well as Gold. So yesterday's dollar appreciation is an opportunity, not a threat. We continue to monitor analysts predicting an imminent crisis. We are not even interested in the time frame as much as the reasons. So far, our collection has the collapse of the CLO market, the growth of staff salaries and the fall in corporate profits because of this, huge debts both at the state and corporate levels, the collapse of price bubbles in the stock and bond markets, trade wars, and growing inequality in world, the end of the business cycle. So today in our piggy bank replenishment: a crisis in the banking system of China. According to the Bank of China, more than half of Chinese banks may collapse if the economic situation in the country worsens further. And this is tens of trillions of dollars. For reference: the size of China's banking system is about $ 40 trillion, which is two times bibber than the US banking system. That is the problem. So we find another confirmation of our basic investment strategy: to shorten the US stock market while buying safe-haven assets (gold and Japanese yen). Well, in conclusion, we note that the spring is now compressed to its limit (for example, the volatility of the euro has reached a historic low).
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
About the recession, markets immunity to good news & US GDPThe US and China have traditionally been optimistic about the progress in the negotiations, but apparently, the markets no longer respond to this. If you yell “wolf”, in the end, people will no longer come. Something similar we can see in the negotiation process between China and the United States. They have been optimistic for more than a month, but there is no breakthrough. In this regard, we will continue to look for points for the purchase of safe-haven assets, which are providing excellent entry points. We will bring up a topic of the upcoming recession. In yesterday’s review, we wrote about the forecasts of Societe Generale analysts who expect a recession in the spring of next year. Recall, in March 2019 the so-called yield curve inversion took place (an anomalous situation when the yield on short-term US treasury bonds exceeds the yield on long-term bonds). As a rule, after this, a recession occurs within 12-18 months. Despite the fact that now the yield curve has returned to normal. In the spring comes the end of the countdown of 12 months. So analysts at Societe Generale are probably not mistaken. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, meanwhile, once again confirmed that the US Central Bank is likely to continue to hold a pause in interest rate policy actions. Today, unlike Monday and Tuesday, will be quite busy in terms of macroeconomic statistics. First of all, we are talking about data on US GDP for the third quarter. Given that this is the second reading of the indicator, that is, the revised value, we do not expect any serious surprises. However, analysts do not expect as well, predicting the immutability of the preliminary assessment of 1.9%. In addition, you should pay attention to orders for durable goods in the United States, as well as the ADP report on the level of employment in the private sector. A busy day for the dollar will end with the publication of statistics on personal income and expenses, as well as incomplete transactions for the sale of housing. Recall our position on the dollar - to look for points for sale for almost the entire spectrum of the foreign exchange market. But today we are acting with an eye on the output data. This is not about changing the direction of the trades, but about the possible emergence of more interesting points for its sales.
TVC:DXYShort
by Trade24Fx
FOMC protocols & stormBlack swans did not fly by, and there were no important macroeconomic statistics or news injections either on the financial markets. In general, the lull that has lately reigned in the financial markets is lingering and the silence begins to become painful. Usually, it all ends with a storm. But a storm needs a trigger. For example, Trump’s next demarche and the failure of negotiations between the US and China with a sharp intensification of trade wars. But so far, markets do not believe in such a scenario. Goldman Sachs Group analysts predict the extinction of friction between the United States and China in 2020, and the WTO predicts the intensification of global trade next year: if by the end of 2019, world trade is expected to grow at 1.2%, then in 2020 WTO experts are counting on an increase of 2.7%. The dynamics of the VIX Index (Fear Index) is located in the area of historic lows. According to Deutsche Bank estimates, the currency market volatility for the major G10 currency pairs is at its lowest level over the past 45 years. The last time this happened only twice in the past - during 2007 and 2014. Nevertheless, the calmer the financial markets look and the more optimistic the forecasts of financial analysts sound, the more worrying it becomes for us since all these are signs of an impending storm. In this regard, our confidence in the advisability of medium-term purchases of safe-haven assets is growing stronger every day. But once again, we note that within the day, gold or the Japanese yen may well decline, especially if positive news from the trade negotiations appear. Today promises to be more interesting than Tuesday. Because inflation statistics for Canada will be published, as well as FOMC protocols. Given that the next Fed’s actions are not what we can predict now, the markets will study with interest in the text of the last FOMC meeting. Our position on the dollar, meanwhile, is unchanged: we believe that the threat/opportunity balance for the dollar has now shifted towards threats and will continue to look for points for its sales in the foreign exchange market.
FX:NGASShort
by Trade24Fx
Short on the DXY, weaking strength ahead post Trump tweetsHeading into next week very bearish against the dollar. While the rally of last week was enjoyable if you were long on the dollar it seems the macroeconomic environment has changed and the tides may turn. On the fundamental side of things you have Trump threatening more tariffs against China, kicking off the trade war again and shocking the markets into correction. NFP wasn't anything particularly new, simply showing what the FOMC already had decided on: growth is slowing and needs a push, hence the cuts. Seeing as cuts will take time to ripple through the economy (especially with slowed manufacturing indicated by the PMI), the dollar will have to correct in the meantime until the global economy tells us otherwise. On the technical side of things there isn't much to look at except an EMA and MA cross (9 & 18 respectively), and the fact that the DXY rejected off of the top area of the range its been in since the beginning of the trade war. The rally of last week combined with FOMC and the trade war ceasefire showed possibilities of a breakout, alas trump had other ideas and his tweets sent the market tumbling down seeking shelter from the scary bird who brought news of more tariffs.
TVC:DXYShort
by david_eke
DANGER: Global financial chaos looms, next week (educational). This is a brief educational post, that is meant as a heads up for sensible traders. They would wish to be aware of systemic risks approaching if Deutsche Bank collapses finally. This is likened to the Lehman Brothers fiasco of a few years ago, but it could be much bigger. I'm sharing this information based on reliable hard data available freely on the internet. DYOR. It's better to be prepared - and nothing happens, than not prepared and your world turns into chaos. The financial world is far more hooked up globally than around 2008 with the advent since, of superfast internet connections. The speed at which shockwaves may travel, would likely be hundreds of times faster than in 2008. So a 'flap of a butterfly's wings' in one financial corner of the planet could cause 'hurricanes' thousands of miles away in other corners of the world - like you never imagined before (concepts applied from Chaos Theory). Nothing here is predictive. I never do predictions. I deal only in probabilities. Appropriate seeding non-promotional references: 1. Lehman Brothers story 2. Deutsche Bank - recent events Disclaimer : This is not financial advice, even if so construed. Should you come to be influenced by this brief screencast, know that your losses are your own. In simple terms no liabilities accepted by me. You'd just have to sue yourself.
NYSE:DBEducation
by Captain_Walker
3
ECB signals, US threats, Roubini ’s predictions, and ruble limitDespite the extremely weak statistics from the Eurozone published on Monday and rather depressing data on producer prices, published on Tuesday, the euro tone was relatively good in the foreign exchange market yesterday. The reason was the information that the ECB is not ready to resort to additional monetary incentives. Therefore you should not expect to ease monetary policy. Despite the record series of the US economic growth, a lot of experts continue to fear for the global economy a bright future in general and the United States in particular. So Nouriel Roubini in a recent interview noted that we might be headed for another recession. The world central banks have essentially exhausted their limit of instruments (it is simply impossible to easy monetary policy for many countries), and, at the same time, the debts of countries are increasing, which is a serious threat. The trade war is a trigger for recessionary processes says, Roubini. The US seems to be interested in Europe, again. The United States, in an ongoing dispute over subsidizing the aviation industry (the European Union illegally subsidized Airbus Corp), is considering imposing tariffs on an additional 89 items with an annual trade volume of $ 4 billion, including cheese, pasta, whiskey, metals, and chemical products. In this light, a sharp increase in gold is quite understandable. Meanwhile, the majority of respondents believe that the ruble has reached its ceiling and it’s simply no way to grow to, Bloomberg's latest monthly survey found. In the future, the decline of the Russian currency is inevitable. Moreover, the state itself is interested in a weak ruble. Recall that the existing budget rule is aimed at artificially creating an imbalance in the foreign exchange market in favor of the dollar and against the ruble. For instance, since the fiscal rule has been imposed, the ruble fell against the dollar by almost 5%, but at the same time, oil prices rose by 17%. That is, the ruble becomes cheaper even if oil prices rise. Well, if they start to fall, it will just be cheaper as well but faster. In this light, it is useful to recall our constant recommendation to sell the Russian ruble on its any growth. In terms of macroeconomic statistics, yesterday was relatively calm in terms of macroeconomic statistics. The index of business activity in the construction sector showed its lowest figures since 2009 (43.1, with forecast of 49.3). Data on employment in the US from ADP is what we are interested in today. Recall that last time they signaled about future problems in the data from the NFP. So we closely monitor the indicator and prepare to sell the dollar in case of its failure. In addition, we are waiting for data on business activity and the trade balance in the United States. Our trading recommendations for today: we are looking for points for sales of the dollar and the Russian ruble, as well as AUDUSD. We sell oil. We can not but note that gold current price is extremely attractive for sales, but do not forget to be careful.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Trade24Fx
1
This New Yield-Based Recession Indicator Is Flashing Red!It is common knowledge that interest rates play a major role in any economy, so I recently decided to sit down and see how the 10 year U.S. bond yield has acted during recessions in the past to see if it correlates somehow with today's markets. After all, the biggest component of any recession is monetary policy which would imply interest rates and therefore bond yields play a larger role than any other element, and could be viewed of as a leading indicator rather than a lagging indicator. Obviously as the economy weakens policy makers tend to cut the short end of the yield curve in hopes of stimulating growth and this in turn pulls down interest rates across the entirety of the curve, long end included. As the Federal Reserve raised rates from 2016 until now bond yields trended up, but since the Fed has paused it's tightening cycle the market has been taking matters into its own hands with the 10 year bond yield falling off a cliff since late 2018 down from 3.2% to now a little over 2%. Large drops in the 10 year yield have historically indicated that the market is anticipating weaker growth ahead and have always preceded U.S. recessions. Knowing this we can take two simple moving averages of the 10 year yield, the 30 week and the 250 week, and plot them against previous recessions to try and accurately ascertain when the next recession is likely to begin. What we see as highlighted by the vertical red lines are that recessions typically begin right as the 30 week moving average crosses down below the 250 week moving average. this indicator perfectly predicted the market top and dot com bust of 2000, the market top and financial crisis of 2008 and it is currently indicating a market top right now as we speak and a subsequent recession beginning by October of this year (2019). As we all know Recessions are not officially acknowledged or announced until nine months after the beginning of the recession due to lagging official data. So if we do end up entering a recession this October we can expect complete denial from policy makers up until they officially announce it around the end of Q2 2020. We may likely be in for a very bumpy and volatile period over the next 12 months for equities. Take a look at my related and linked article below showing how the 3-month treasury yield is predicting that the Fed will slash rates to below the zero lower bound and into negative territory by next year. This is not financial advice, just some simple economic analysis.
TVC:US10Y
by Markster
2
Parabolic Gains Ahead for CryptocurrencyThere are several factors supporting this hypothesis, including wave theory, technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and macroeconomic factors. Wave Theory: Based on the Two Day chart above, it looks like we're in a diametric and should be nearing the end of wave-(D) because it is time similar to the other waves, and the internals of that wave seem to have formed into an irregular failure flat. If so this would be an ideal end for wave-c because it is 80% of wave-a in price, and half of the time of a+b. An irregular failure flat implies that wave-(E) should be stronger than wave-(C). In the longer term, we have likely completed wave- and are at the beginning of a bull run that could continue until next year. Technical: There are several normal and hidden bullish divergences forming on multiple timeframes. We have also had several significant long-term moving averages turning bullish on many major cryptocurrencies which haven't happened since early 2017. There are also bullish divergent bars beginning to form on several timeframes. There are also very bullish breakouts on several cryptocurrencies, including Bitcoin which broke right through the 6-7k resistance zone, and now that resistance has turned into support, indicating that we will continue to see higher prices from here. Fundamental: The on-ramps for cryptocurrency, and in particular for institutional clients, have been ramped up in the last few months, allowing a lot of new money to flow into the market. In 2017, most major exchanges shutting their doors to new customers was a major factor in the bull run running out of steam because new money couldn't come into the market. Now they will be able to handle a much larger customer base. The new SEC commissioner is very pro-crypto and has stated she thinks the SEC is being too strict by not allowing a cryptocurrency ETF, so most likely under her guidance we will see an ETF being approved soon. With Facebook launching a new cryptocurrency it will allow a lot of retail investors to get into the market through Facebook which has billions of users and a familiar interface. There have also been several major marketing pushes by several companies and cryptocurrency foundations which will bring new money into the market. Many major companies and banks are also starting to integrate cryptocurrency and blockchain technology into their daily operations. Macroeconomic: Several macroeconomic factors play into this potential parabolic bull-run. In 2017 when we went parabolic we had strong gold, strong EURUSD, high USD inflation, low yields, and increasing trade war fears. Throughout 2018 and some of 2019 we have had the opposite situation. However, now we are seeing strong gold again, the ECB remaining neutral and the FED softening which will likely lead to higher EURUSD prices, high USD inflation, crashing yields, and China and US starting to escalate the trade war again. Based on all of these factors I think the stage is set for people to begin rushing into cryptocurrency, and as price goes higher people will begin to rush in faster because there are few more attractive alternatives, and the media will be picking up on the price increase heavily, especially after we break 10k, causing prices to go parabolic in a very similar fashion as they did in 2017. Which also means that many top cryptocurrencies will outperform bitcoin again because of BTC's lack of scaling.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Intuit
4
Market Breakdown:GBP/AUD analysisBased on the higher time frames, the price has been declining rapidly to the downside, the trendline was broken and tested our key daily area of support 1.81500 which was created by the previous swing to the low before retesting the key institutional area of supply1.88000. I will be monitoring candlestick behaviour around this key region to see if we can get more signs of rejections to signal signs of a reversal to the upside confluence zone of 1.84000 which is supported by the MA acting as resistance, with addition to the resistance zone being a 50% retracement level. The sterling has been showing some strength these couple of days, on top of that Australian currency may decline in the next few days, due to RBA rate cuts suggesting signs of dovish sentiment. - A 4HR bullish engulfing candle break above the intraday counter-trendline could signal further momentum to the upside. However, what would invalidate my position is if price rallies further down to 1.8000(institutional demand zone) before we could consider taking longs.
Long
by danresdidualfx
Semana importante!Puede que el crash ya haya empezado! / Maybe the crash has already started! Los últimos serán los primeros... / The last will be the first ... Si corrige puede que lleguemos al nivel de los 2570 puntos. / If there is a correction, we may reach the 2570 points level. Debería ser así por la clara divergencia entre el precio y el indicador RSI. / It should be that way because of the clear divergence between the price and the RSI indicator. ---------------------------------- Good luck!
SP:SPXShort
by harribatu
The stalemate of the trade negotiations The stalemate of the trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing weighs on the main trend of the US. There was the increase of 200 billion dollars in US goods on Chinese goods, since last Friday. In fact, before Trump's words that reversed the direction of the price, the DOW JONES, NASDAQ and SP500 trends were all projected to rise in the short term. The fundamental scenario that is taking shape on the main global lists, in fact, is not reassuring for investors. They are starting to liquidate "buy" positions on these baskets from their portfolios. The real concern is now not just the green light of Trump of the new duties against Chinese products, but the possibility of an all-out trade war that seems to have become more concrete. Unlike the past, the real game between Beijing and the US is not just about trade taxes. More than raw materials, cars or computers, it is China's role in financing the American deficit that has come into play. In the week just ended, in fact, the Treasury account of foreign governments at the Federal Reserve unexpectedly fell by 670 million dollars from 3.06 billion. This causing more than a nervousness to the American leadership. On that account, the lion's share China is the first creditor of the US and the first financier of Donald Trump's deficit spending policy. For the markets (but not only), those balances are no occasional. The more the White House raises the stake in the commercial and currency clash with Beijing, the more the Chinese government removes the money from the counter. Without proclamations, and without anyone noticing. Except the Fed and the Treasury, of course. The technical scenario, therefore, is strongly influenced by the macroeconomic one. All the indicators (except for monthly tf) suggest a further drop in the short term.
NASDAQ:NDX
by BFCMInvest
DXY (USD Currency Index) ShortDXY ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The US Dollar has been respecting daily trendline support for almost 12 months. One would imagine that weakness in the dollar is imminent. I would say yes but not that fast as people would think. Using supply and demand analysis, price has been creating demand over the past year. Price has been selling and retracing near to around the same price for months. This is because large institutions and big banks are getting more sell orders in. When they complete sell orders, price moves away from an area, however, they need to get more sell orders in so they push back price up in order to get more in. So you can see this happening repeatedly. Price has now gotten more sell orders to fall once again. On a macroeconomic standpoint, global economies have been showing weakness and the dollar has now fallen into this viewpoint. This weakness will be seen greatly after the Fed speaks in June, there should be a rate hike. This will definitely be a shaker for prices in USD. Apply proper risk management when trading as past profits does not guarantee future gains. Until we meet again beloved!
TVC:DXYShort
by ricky1270
Beginning of a Violent Crash for SPX?Looking at the SP:SPX 1-month chart, I’m seeing some strong indications pointing at SPX being at the top of a potentially violent crash. Evidence For – Indicators that Support SPX Being at the Beginning of Crash: MACD Support Trendline: Broken with Some Distance – In the previous two crashes, the beginning of the crashes coincided with the MACD support trendline (red) being broken (with a reasonable amount of distance from the trendline). This has already happened on the 12 MA (cyan). Also notice, that both times in the past two crashes, the 12 MA (cyan) tested the MACD support trendline, found resistance, then dropped. Could see that play out soon. RSI Wave 5 Support Trendline: Broken, Tested and Becomes Resistance – Though the 2000 crash didn’t create an Elliot Wave Pattern on the RSI, if we create a support trendline (pink) on the RSI that corresponds to Wave 5 on price, you can see this pattern of broken, tested then resistance occurs. 2007 is even clearer. To me, where we’re at now, looks very similar to 2007. Price Wave 5 Support Trendline: Body of Red Candle Breaks Through – In the previous two crashes, the beginning of the crashes coincided with the price support trendline (pink) in Wave 5 being broken with the body of a red candle. In 2000, the price did not come back up to test the trendline as resistance, in 2007 it did, currently it’s on its way to test it for a 3rd time. Perhaps it will even test it a fourth time if it can’t breakthrough this time or perhaps breaks through briefly as it did in October/November. RSI Correction Wave A: Distinctive “E” Shape - All three patterns create a distinctive capital “E” type shape (green rectangles) to start out Correction Wave A, with the bottom of the “E” defining the resistance trendline (purple) in 2007. Angle of the trendline in 2000 wouldn’t have been far off if drawn there either. While I’m guessing this is not a common pattern used in charting, it does seem to be a pattern. Evidence Against: Indicators that DO NOT Support SPX Being at the Beginning of Crash Bollinger Bands/EMA: No Bounce Off EMA – In the two previous crashes, the following occurred with the correction wave – 1) correction Wave A completed at the lower BB 2) shot up to the EMA (middle yellow line) 3) Bounced off the EMA - completing Wave B. This go ‘round, 1) and 2) occurred, but instead of bouncing off the EMA to complete Wave B, it blew right through it. Perhaps it will bounce off the Wave 5 resistance trendline (pink) though like it did in 2008 or perhaps we’re still in Wave A and need to test the lower BB again before starting Wave B. MACD Support Trendline: 26 MA Hasn’t Broken Through – The 26 MA (purple) has yet to break through the MACD support trendline (red), even though the 12 (cyan) created some good distance. Not too worried about that though – the MACD on the daily chart looks poised for a crossover to the downside, and the 12 MA on the weekly looks like it’s ready to start heading down as well. I’m not a pro trader (YET). This is not investment advice (AT ALL). I’m just a guy who has spent a lot of time learning about technical analysis in the past 18 months or so. I would really appreciate any feedback, especially if you disagree with anything so I can see the other side or if find anything technically wrong with this chart that would help me improve going forward.
SP:SPXShort
by JDCryptoATX
7
THE BIG EIGHT: Where is the world heading?In this screencast I review 8 important markets. There are some common levels and patterns of price movements. The India50 is the odd man (woman) out. The forecast of a global recession has been made (not by me). This is related largely to global debt now standing at around $233 TRILLION US-Dollars and debt in America currently around $22 Trillion US-Dollars. The picture is complicated by trade tensions, political and other macroeconomic events. Our inheritance is will be the result of a decade of ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing (aka printing of money), now complicated by global geopolitical and macroeconomic issues. Stock markets (and related indices) have a complex but important relationship to the Forex markets.
FX:US30Education
by Captain_Walker
STERLING: Not in a good placeIf you believe big media news headlines you'd be thinking that GBP is on some mega path of recovery. It ain't. The evidence is that GBP is in serious trouble as seen by most of the big daily trends. Unless something miraculous happens big trends like these especially GBPUSD create further probabilities for the south. But on the geopolitical-economic circuit, many in Britain are actually preparing for a 'Hard Brexit'. Should that materialise there is not only gonna be further big trouble for the pound, but for Forex and Stock Markets around the world. Stay tuned folks! Get your popcorn ready. :)
Short
by Captain_Walker
No, Halvings Don't MatterAs I dig deeper, the Bitcoin picture becomes clearer. I'm starting to believe that Bitcoin is the penny stock of the world's finance. I'm comparing Bitcoin to a fund that manages a basket of EM-related assets. This is the reported breakdown as of October: China 19.95% Other 16.59% South Korea 14.78% Taiwan 11.39% Russia 8.23% Brazil 8.01% South Africa 6.33% India 5.97% Cash & Cash Equivalents 5.29% Peru 3.46% You can see the almost direct relationship between crypto and the fund. As Bitcoin has grown, the behaviour has become more and more similar between the two. Even back in 2012 there was already a developing parallel. This has lead me to believe that more than crypto being at the mercy of the dollar, in order for the space to be bullish, the world's finance has to have the right conditions. Investors need to be so confident that they move not only into emerging markets, but go all the way into the penny stock of the world. It isn't yet completely clear to me why EMs top first, but it may have something to do with the low cap nature of crypto. As for the bottoms, there isn't a clear relationship either. I'm inclined to say that crypto rallies first, once again, due to its low cap nature. This isn't always the case, but it could be a good explanation. Beyond the fact that crypto might simply be a penny stock for people on a macro scale, it seems that "domestic" issues, such as halvings, hacks, news, forks, etc. only seem to affect either the slope of the trend or very localised movements. If we look back at the 2013 rally it doesn't make it implausible to have a move to 10-15k by December. Furthermore, meme lines won't predict or find the real bottom. What you can do is start looking into real world issues. The overall financial world needs a very confident outlook in order for crypto to move. That being said, I feel that emerging markets will have a breather soon, allowing crypto to have a partially bullish move. TL;DR halvings don't matter for macro trend. For moon or crash you need to look at emerging markets.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1038536
3
The Big one: showing serious potential trouble ahead. I do not trade this index. In this screencast I show how there was a major struggle in the world economies between February 2018 and today 28th October 2018. I explore potentials for Bitcoin and Gold. A major corrective move south n the MSCI-ACWI has happened. This index is an aggregate of world indices. What we see on this chart is: 1. Price struggling to stay afloat between February 2018 and October 2018. 2. Price has suddenly collapsed without sign of a significant rebellion (so far). What's all this about? It's about joining some important dots (not all): 1. The world is in a deepening financial crisis. 2. The IMF warned in early October quoting from reputable sources, that risks to the global economy are rising unsupported by increasingly unsustainable policies. They warned that, "The extended period of ultra-low interest rates in advanced economies has contributed to the build-up of financial vulnerabilities" 3. Global debt has reached unprecedented levels. 4. The American economy which tends to influence the world, is living on borrowed time. 5. The European Union is in a state of financial crisis: Italy more recently. Some have forgotten about Portugal, Greece and Spain (part of what is commonly known as the P.I.G.S - nothing derogatory implied] 6. The ECB will stop quantitative easing in December 2018 (it says). 7. Uncertainties about Brexit still loom and probabilities point to greater chance of a hard-Brexit. 8. Trad tensions are high with China and Russia. 9. Emerging market around the world are being hammered. The US stock market is the last in line for a potential beating. 10. Low interest rates over the last 10-15 years in many western countries have created a setup for boom bust cycles. In recent times global interest rates have been creeping up (on average), at among least major economies. Will reality win over hope and greed? We shall see. .
NASDAQ:ACWI
by Captain_Walker
US Dollar under potential threat as de-dollarization sets in.In this screencast, I'm looking ahead for potential moves, possibly south in the US-Dollar. This is about preparedness. In the video I explore emerging geopolitical and macroeconomic issues that are taking place. The US-Dollar strength has big influence at this time on: 1. Commodities 2. Metals - especially Gold and Silver 3. Oil 4. Stock markets in the US and elsewhere. 5. US-Dollar currency pairs. - and more. This thing is big! There is reliable information about a silent forex war happening largely unseen as China, Russia and Japan are giving up US debt, and moving into Gold and Crytocurrencies. I don't do predictions, so I'm unable to say what this would mean for the future. Do not take my word for it - check out this stuff on reliable information channels (unable to give further information here - but PM me if you wish).
FX:USDOLLAREducation
by Captain_Walker
The Dragon, The Eagle And The Elephant Investors seem to have started shifting their focus from equities and rates onto the US dollar. We believe that if this dollar rally accelerates it will be a major headache for emerging markets i.e. China, India, and Russia. In part 1 of this report I would like to talk about the Dragon the Eagle and The Elephant, first let’s start with the dragon; China.Over the first few months of 2018, we observed that the PMI’s (leading economic indicator) of China had peaked resulting in a slowdown in the Chinese economy as an economy slows down the prices of commodities tends to follow to the downside. Read more at www.patreon.com
Education
by couragepharm
BTCUSD - The Blockhain CrashTo start off this little essay I'd like to start off with a disclaimer - I'm no visionary and unfortunately still incapable of exact event-prediction, therefore this analysis is a pure digression through my thoughts and an exposition of ideas and my current bias in the whole crypto-sphere. I've grown to become a believer that Trading Analysis without a background of research on the current political and economical state of affairs is a blind attempt at finding direction in the repetitive cycle that a trend leads to its own continuation until a reversal happens. Through my trading experience I've seen myself exiting early positions in trades purely due to the fear of reversal as key points (TP zones) were being targeted). This has always felt somewhat counterproductive and while I don't dismiss TA as an accurate way to set targets for profit and to cut losing trades short, I also think that it needs some form of validation to increase your awareness towards the move with higher probability. This is achieved by understanding the mind of the key investors and the overall sentiment across the world. So lets begin, shall we: - The crypto-sphere is in a very similar stage to the the tech startups of the late 90s. The overall understanding of the technology and its potential it's still very shallow and its potential overestimated. Cryptocurrency startups raise millions of dollars on the basis of a (quite-often poorly constructed) white paper exposing the theory behind their proposed blockchain technology. Revolutionary ideas for sure, some of them with a working product already but the number of business cases is still lower than low. The excitement and customer confidence in this new technology is what increases demand for the purchase of what a lot of the retail investors see as the equivalent of equity in a company, while in actuality these coins are pure stores of value. This has led to a massive discrepancy between real value and perceptual value. While the uptrend was definitely a sign of reflexivity in which the trend increases buyers and buyers will continue the tend, by January a state of doubt/reality check started to make an appearance. We're now seeing reflexivity applied to the downtrend. It was triggered by a fear that cryptos are still in an early stage and in risk of being obliterated by big financial corps/regulatory measures, yet currently we're seeing a strong downtrend increase sellers and that therefore continuing the trend. There's an embedded bearish state of mind in investors and a belief we're heading lower. This will more than likely be the reality - From a political standpoint we're seeing the western worldwide moving to an aggressive right-wing mentality. We're seeing protectionist regulations being implemented (most recently the US tariffs on Alluminum, steel and quite possibly on Chinese imports)/immigration and border control taken to extremes (Brexit, dismantlement of coalitions, states and cities trying to become independent...), all this suggests we're heading towards trade wars or at least trade restrictions until the smoke settles and new coalitions have been formed. We're witnessing an exhaustion of the current political and trade partnerships. (next comment)
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ikc7979
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