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IO Weekly Technicals Review [2024/42]: IO Reversal Deepens SGX TSI Iron Ore CFR China (62% Fe Fines) Index Futures (“SGX IO Futures”) fell last week for a second week in a row, closing USD 4.15/ton lower by Friday. SGX IO Futures opened at USD 105.85/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and closed at USD 101.70/ton on 18/Oct (Fri). Prices briefly touched a weekly high of USD 109.05/ton on 14/Oct (Mon) and a low of USD 99.30/ton on 17/Oct (Thu). It traded in a range of USD 9.75/ton during the week, which was smaller than the prior week. Prices traded below the pivot point of USD 108.10/ton for the entire week but managed to hold support above the S1 pivot point at 101.15. Volume peaked on 17/Oct (Thu) as Iron Ore prices declined despite the announcement of expanded housing stimulus measures. SGX Iron Ore Futures Fundamentals in Summary Further measures to support the housing industry in China were announced on 17/Oct (Thu). The measures included widened support under the “white list” program to 4 trillion Yuan. PBoC started the week with a 25 bps cut to the 5-year loan prime rate and a 25 basis point cut to the 1-year loan prime rate offering additional easing measures. Despite an early rally, IO pared gains by the end of the day. China's GDP growth in Q3 was 0.9%, falling short of analyst expectations but exceeding the 0.5% growth recorded in Q2, which was revised downward. Annual GDP growth reached 4.6%, significantly below the 5% target. IO China Portside inventories rose by 1.89M tons to 149.73 million tons last week. The increase was driven by significantly higher arrivals and low pace of pickup due to slower restocking. Based on seasonality, SGX IO Futures Nov contract trades 3.5% below its last 5-year average (USD 105.58/ton). Seasonal performance also suggests there could be a price dip with a low in the next couple of weeks. Short-Term Moving Averages Signal Reversal of Bullish Trend The 9-day moving average is continuing its downward trend and marked a bearish crossover on 21/Oct (Mon). Last week, the price held support above the S1 pivot point but faced rejection at the P pivot point on 21/Oct (Mon). Long-Term Averages Signal Bearish Trend Price fell below the 100-day moving average on 17/Oct (Thu). Despite reaching highs above this level, price has failed to close above the MA. MACD Points to Downturn, RSI Flat MACD signals an ongoing bearish trend since 16/Oct (Wed) with the distance between long and short-term MA continuing to expand as of 21/Oct (Mon). RSI is at the mid-point level of 49.5 signaling neutral trend. Volatility Eases, Fibonacci 50% Maintained Support Last Week Volatility briefly edged up in the middle of last week but now continues to decline and has reached the lowest level in October. The 50% Fibonacci level was tested last week but managed to maintain support. With a continued downward trend, the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 97.55 is the next major support level to watch if price declined below 50%. Selling Pressure Dominates, Price Gap Likely to be Tested This Week Heavy selling pressure dominates IO trading according to the Accumulation/Distribution indicator (A/D). Price trades at a high volume node which was dominated by sell volume and below a low volume valley which could be tested during the week. The bullish flag failed to maintain last week as prices fell further instead of consolidating. Hypothetical Trade Setup Iron Ore prices continued to decline last week as the expanded stimulus measures disappointed market expectations once again. Bearish trend in IO continues as fundamentals signal more pain in store and short-term MA signaled a bearish crossover. We propose a hypothetical trade set up of selling SGX IO November Futures Contract at USD 101.2/ton with a stop at USD 104.05/ton and target at USD 97.5/ton resulting in reward-to-risk ratio of 1.30x. Entry: USD 101.2/ton Target: USD 104.05/ton Stop Loss: USD 97.5/ton Profit at Target: USD 370/lot ((101.2-97.5) x 100) Loss at Stop: USD 285/lot ((101.2-104.05) x 100) Reward to Risk: 1.30x This calculation excludes transaction costs comprising of clearing broker fees and exchange clearing fees. The SGX requires a minimum initial margin of USD 1,232/lot and a maintenance margin of USD 1,120/lot. DISCLAIMER This case study is for educational purposes only and does not constitute investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. Trading or investment ideas cited here are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management or trading under the market scenarios being discussed. Please read the FULL DISCLAIMER the link to which is provided in our profile description.
SGX:FEF2!Short
by MintBulkCommods
2
S&P 500 Weakness Relative to Gold?In this weekly chart of the S&P 500 Index denominated in gold (SPX/XAU), I’m observing a noticeable loss of momentum (relative to gold prices). This is evidenced by the decreasing gap between the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and the 130 EMA at the latest local high compared to the previous one. Additionally, there is a shift in the 'behavior' of these moving averages — they have entered a phase of 'indecision' regarding trend direction. This is quite significant because, for decades, these moving averages have reliably provided a single crossover, followed by a clean multi-year trend. The last period when there were as many crossovers between the 50 and 130 EMAs within such a short time span was between early 1967 and late 1971. The period marked by the final MA-crossover of that range ultimately led to a dramatic decline of about 95% relative to gold, lasting approximately 8 years and 5 months, culminating in a bottom in January 1980. I also see additional evidence in the form of price struggling to hold above the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the major cycle peak of late 2000. While price did break above this level several times in 2021 and even managed to hold above it for about six weeks (late November 2021 through early January 2022), it has since failed to reclaim that level. The most recent attempt in February of this year led to a rejection that resulted in a 16% decline over the subsequent eight weeks. Currently, the price relative to gold remains about 15% below that critical level. If we consider that a 72% decline in the S&P 500 (relative to gold) would be required to revisit the major cycle low seen in early September 2011, it’s clear that there’s significant room for downward movement. It’s important to note that the S&P 500 could continue delivering positive returns in nominal terms for years to come, regardless of how it performs against gold. The point here is to highlight a potential argument for relative weakness in the S&P 500 when compared to gold, which has been a strong performer so far this year. If this chart is indicative of broader trends, gold has a good chance to continue outperforming, even if this index continues to grind upward.
SP:SPX
by JamesBrown
BTCUSDT: Testing the 20K Support Followed by an Upward MovementBitcoin has experienced a significant upward trajectory, starting below 16k and reaching a peak at 31k. It is anticipated that the next phase will involve a corrective visit to the Fibonacci level of 0.618, estimated to be around $21400. However, I believe Bitcoin may dip slightly further, potentially settling around the 20k mark, which aligns with the support level observed in March. The convergence of the MA25 and MA99 indicators in early June, with the short-term MA falling below the long-term MA, suggests a potential bearish trend in the coming months. It is important to note that this is merely my personal perspective on Bitcoin's outlook and should not be taken as financial advice.
by fortitude23
T - Price Targets & Stop Loss📈 What’s up investors! 📉 Welcome back to another one of 💡“Mike’s Ideas”.💡 I post as I find signals… these signals are based on the personal rules I have built and follow in order to make up what I call the “SST Strategy”. Follow for more ideas in the future!! I have 4 levels marked and colour coded on the Chart. These levels are: ⚪ White = Entry Point 🔴 Red = Stop Loss 🟢 Green = 1.2:1 Risk Reward Ratio 🟡 Yellow = 1.5:1 Risk Reward Ratio 🔵 Blue = 2:1 Risk Reward Ratio 👀 So what are we looking at today…!!! 🚨( T ) AT&T Inc.🚨 Provides telecommunications, media, and technology services worldwide. Its Communications segment offers wireless voice and data communications services; and sells handsets, wireless data cards, wireless computing devices, and carrying cases and hands-free devices through its own company-owned stores, agents, and third-party retail stores. It also provides data, voice, security, cloud solutions, outsourcing, and managed and professional services, as well as customer premises equipment for multinational corporations, small and mid-sized businesses, governmental, and wholesale customers. In addition, this segment offers broadband fiber and legacy telephony voice communication services to residential customers. It markets its communications services and products under the AT&T, Cricket, AT&T PREPAID, and AT&T Fiber brand names. The company's Latin America segment provides wireless services in Mexico; and video services in Latin America. This segment markets its services and products under the AT&T and Unefon brand names. The company was formerly known as SBC Communications Inc. and changed its name to AT&T Inc. in 2005. AT&T Inc. was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
NYSE:TLong
by sststrategy
A death cross that never happened to Bitcoin is about to happen.A 200 and 21 weekly MA crossover are never happened in bitcoin history ever. Such moving average crossover almost occurred back in September 2015 but the price immediately reverse direction to the upside so that the death cross didn't happen. This time the price of bitcoin has stayed below the 200 weekly moving average for a relatively long period of time. Bitcoin tried to break above the 200 weekly MA but got rejected which increased the potential downside for bitcoin and increased the likeliness of a death cross to happen.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by marketslave_
BTC to 29K !!!!Hi everyone! Daily 4H 1H As previously said on my previous post mentioned that BTC had a chance to test 45K. But unfortunately the current circumstances across all markets are NOT looking good all this as been referred to the current situation with Russia and Ukraine. But NOT everything is bad as good outcomes come from Red markets: We can accumulate Long term potential coins with solid projects. Forget meme coins and focus on solid structured projects, much suggestion is to stay away from Scalping unless you know what you are doing. I mentioned that "If failing to hold above this level and( a) daily candle closes below $40.8K (White broken line)Would mean that the Price Channel is broken BTC cloud drop to $35k or even lower." My $34.5k New trend line in blue has touched for the second time and is playing a key support If failing to hold we can see it going down to $29K. ALWAYS look for extra confirmation before making any trade. Happy trading people (No financial advice) DISCLAIMER The trading ideas, analysis, and comments above should not be considered financial advice or recommendation to trade or invest in any financial product. Your personal situation has not been taken into consideration in the trade ideas. This page is for general educational purposes only. Do not buy or sell any product discusses on this page before doing your own research DYOR. Always do your own analysis and research and be aware of the risks involved in trading any financial product :)
Short
by CryptoTraderRetired
2
BBIG on a breakout? Testing 200 MA?Wedge 1, retracement after run up, break out of pattern using underlying support, bounce off 200 MA, 12/26 EMA crossover, run up Wedge 2, retracement after run up, breakout of pattern using underlying support, bounce off 200 MA, 12/26 EMA crossover, run up Wedge 3, retracement after run up, breakout of pattern using underlying support, 12/26 EMA cross over possibly coming, this time trading under 200 MA 200 MA major resistance but a break above is BULLISH to me - look for golden cross if bulls maintain control.
BLong
by OccamsPhazer
4
$65K BITCOIN INCOMING!!?!! WHAT DO YOU THINK??!With Bitcoin giving off a slight rally towards the market close today we are back above the $63K mark with a healthy chart in front of us. If we can see a break out above the neckline here we have big potential sights ahead of the weekend. Im currently still in my Long Position from our original break out price of just above 61K. Taking some chips off of the table on hitting our previous price targets as mentioned in the previous ideas and adding more upon the reversion to the mean at around $62,500 what were looking for now is: Support above the neckline of our W Break. Volume confirmation, this is very important providing that we do not get the volume we have further potential to see downwards price action. Price target one and two are in pink. Of course we always have the possibility to see another slide towards the downside before we move significantly up and vice a versa so we'll be be watching closely! What's your thoughts and do you agree or disagree with the targets I have in mind for the short term. let me know in the comments! Not financial advice, just sharing my thoughts.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by TradingCheww
BTCUSD: Hash Ribbons Buy Signals 2016-2020 ExtrapolationThe buy signal (in blue) has not yet appeared on the Daily time-frame, we are however close to getting our 4th buy signal in so many years after the bullish MA crossover of the Hash Ribbons shorter & longer SMAs (30 & 60) has occurred. See recent buy signals in past 4 years as well as the returns to current June 27th closing price price of $9,010. Hard not to be feeling slightly bullish right now, pending confirmation. Month Year: Price (+% since signal to date) September 2016: $616 (+1,360%) January 2019: $3,652 (+146%) December 2019: $7,245 (+24%) April 2020: $7,552 (+19%) Weekly chart still pending MA crossover: Monthly chart is still one step behind, not yet green even: BTCUSD: Network Hash Gives 10th Buy Signal In 9 Years
BNC:BLXLong
by dragononcrypto
1
AUDCHF 1D MA-X MOVING AVERAGE CROSS Tim's MA-X Strategy. This is a Moving Average Crossover or MA-X Trading Strategy setup. MA-X strategy consists of the 100 period simple moving average (SMA) in red, and the 20 period exponential moving average in blue. If the 20 ema is above the 100 sma then we only take buys or longs. If the 20 ema is below the 100 sma the we only take selss or shorts. *In this case price is above the 100 sma so we will only take buys or longs. *This Pair has been in a nice uptrend foe some time. *It's now pulled back below the 20 ema and consolidating below the 20. *We are going to look for a close above the 20 ema to go long. *This trade plan we buy a daily candle close above the 20 ema. On the breaking candle to enter a full-sized position we want to the volume bar reach up to the volume average. If it doesn't reach the average but does reach 75% of the average open a ½ size position to reduce risk. You can calculate the percentage by dividing the first volume average by the second volume average. You should at least get 75%, if you don't then stand aside on the trade. The stop loss will be 1.5 x ATR. The first target will be 1 x ATR. So the way that works is you get your candle close above the 20 ema that's your entry point. At that time you look at the ATR of that candle. You multiply that by 1.5 to get your SL. You measure that distance behind the entry and that will be your SL. Then you measure 1 ATR above the entry and that will be your first target. If after entering the trade the candle closes back below the 20 ema, tke the loss right then. Do not wait for price to hit the SL. Our intention is that a breakout above the 20 ema should be explosive and hit our target fairly quickly. If the momentum goes away we want to shut the trade down without taking a full stop if possible. When price hits our first target, close half the position for profit and set the SL to break even on the remainder. Follow stops as price moves in our direction until the market takes us out. These two rules are the very definition of cutting your losses and letting your winners run. Typically does this by using two positions. The first position has a stop loss and a take profit. That position will close automatically when the first target is hit. The second position will only have a stop loss and not take profit. This is the position that will be allowed to run. When the first target is hit we have to manually move our stop up to break even on the second position. Risk only two percent of your trading account of each trade. Each position will then only be 1%.
Short
by Tradingstrategyguides
2
LONG - AMB - Trading OpportunityBullish MAs cross happening on multiple time frames, BINANCE:AMBBTC seems to be getting ready for a leg up. Entry: 0.00000183 Target : 0.00000204 SL: 0.00000176 CryptoCue is not providing investment advice and is not taking subscribers’ personal circumstances into consideration when discussing investments. Investment involves a high degree of risk and should be considered only by persons who can afford to sustain a loss of their entire position. CryptoCue is not registered, licensed or authorized to provide investment advice and is simply providing an opinion, which is given without any liability or reliance whatsoever. The information contained here is not an offer or solicitation or recommendation or advice to buy, hold, or sell any security. CryptoCue makes no representation as to the completeness, accuracy or timeliness of the material provided and all information and opinions provided by CryptoCue are subject to change without notice and provided on a non-reliance basis and without acceptance of any liability or responsibility whatsoever or howsoever arising. You hereby irrevocably and unconditionally waive, release and discharge: (a) any and all accrued rights and/or benefits you may have against CryptoCue in respect of any opinion expressed or information conveyed by CryptoCue at any time; (b) any and all Claims you may have against CryptoCue arising out of any opinion expressed or information conveyed by CryptoCue at any time; (c) CryptoCue from all and any claims (whether actual or contingent and whether as an employee, office holder or in any other capacity whatsoever) including, without limitation, Claims you may have against CryptoCue arising out of any opinion expressed or information conveyed by CryptoCue at any time. ("Claims" shall include any action, proceeding, claim, demand, judgment or judgment sum of whatsoever nature or howsoever arising.) You hereby agree to indemnify and hold harmless CryptoCue in respect of any and all Losses paid, discharged, sustained or incurred by CryptoCue in the event of bringing any Claim against CryptoCue. (“Losses” shall include any and all liabilities, costs, expenses, damages, fines, impositions or losses (including but not limited to any direct, indirect or consequential losses, loss of profit, loss of earnings , loss of reputation and all interest, penalties and legal costs (calculated on a full indemnity basis) and all other reasonable professional costs and expenses and any associated value-added tax) of whatsoever nature and/or judgment sums (including interest thereon).
ALong
by ElMomento