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Macrotrading

USDCAD Short Setup – Support Broken, More Downside Ahead?Bias: ✅ Strong Sell Timeframe: 4H Pair: USDCAD Week: 26–30 May 2025 ⸻ 🔍 Technical Setup: USDCAD just broke a major support zone around 1.3732, opening the door for continued downside into the next demand zone. • Entry: Break and retest or continuation below 1.3732 • Stop Loss: Above resistance at 1.3813 • Take Profit: Next support near 1.3467 • Risk-Reward Ratio: ~3.9R • Structure: Lower highs, clean breakdown, bearish momentum ⸻ 🧠 Macro Confluence: • 📉 USD Weakness: Dovish Fed, weak macro outlook (Investogenie Score 1.8 ↓) • 🇨🇦 CAD Recovery: Hawkish BoC, conditional score surged from 2 → 10 • 📊 Seasonals: CAD favored • 🧾 COT: Net bearish shift in USD, CAD corrective phase expected • ⚠️ News Risk: CAD GDP & US GDP this week could accelerate the move ⸻ ⚠️ Risk Notes: • Watch for FOMC and GDP reports before scaling positions • Break & close confirmed – trail stops on lower timeframe ⸻ 📌 Momentum is in favor – ride the breakdown, but stay data-aware. Share setups or feedback below 👇
Long
by wajahatarif
USDJPY Short Setup – Bearish Breakout WatchBias: ✅ Strong Sell Timeframe: 4H Pair: USDJPY Week: 26–30 May 2025 🔍 Technical Setup: USDJPY is sitting on a critical support zone around 142.55. A decisive break and 4H close below this level would confirm a bearish continuation. Entry: Break below 142.55 Stop Loss: Above resistance at 142.80 Take Profit: Major support around 140.05 Risk-Reward Ratio: ~4R Structure: Lower highs, pressure on demand – momentum building 🧠 Macro Confluence: 📉 USD Weakness: Dovish Fed, worsening macro (Investogenie Score 1.8 ↓) 💴 JPY Strength: Seasonal bias, bullish COT positioning, risk-off sentiment 🧾 COT: JPY net long positions at 92% RSI 📊 Conditional Scores: JPY ↑, USD ↓ ⚠️ Risk Sentiment: VIX 22.68 – risk-off favors JPY ⚠️ Risk Notes: Wait for confirmation candle before entry Watch FOMC + GDP (USD) for volatility spikes Consider scaling in on retest of broken support 📌 Let the level break before jumping in. Precision matters. Share your thoughts or charts below 👇
Long
by wajahatarif
EURUSD Long Setup – Bullish Breakout PlayBias: ✅ Strong Buy Timeframe: 4H Pair: EURUSD Week: 26–30 May 2025 🔍 Technical Analysis: EURUSD has broken through a prior resistance and is currently testing a second resistance zone at 1.13983. I’m looking for a confirmed breakout above this level to enter long. Entry: Break and 4H close above 1.13983 Stop Loss: Below support zone at 1.13545 Take Profit: Targeting resistance zone near 1.15454 Risk-Reward Ratio: ~3.36R Structure: Higher highs forming, potential breakout continuation 🧠 Macro Confluence: 📉 USD Weakness: Dovish Fed + poor fundamentals (Investogenie Score 1.8 ↓, Conditional Score 3 ↓) 📈 EUR Strength: Improving Eurozone outlook, strong COT positioning, ECB easing bias 📊 Seasonal Bias: EURUSD bullish for this period ⚠️ Risk Management: Watch for FOMC and GDP releases (USD) mid-week Avoid premature entries without clear break and 4H confirmation Optional: Wait for break & retest for higher probability Drop your thoughts or setups below 👇
Long
by wajahatarif
NZDCAD Long – Breakout + Retest Opportunity Backed by Macros🔹 Pair: NZD/CAD 🔹 Timeframe: 1H 🔹 Direction: Long 🔹 Status: Breakout of resistance → waiting for retest at turncoat support 🔹 Entry Zone (Planned): 0.8250–0.8260 NZD is the top gainer this week with strong conditional momentum and seasonal strength. CAD is stagnating under weak macro support. We're now watching for a pullback to the breakout zone for an ideal long entry. Will look to enter between 0.8250–0.8260, SL under 0.8230, and aiming for 0.8295+. 📊 Macro & Fundamental Confluence 🇳🇿 NZD – Bullish Biggest Weekly Gainer: Conditional score surged 🚀 from 8 → 13 Seasonal Bias: Strong buy signal from mid-May onward Central Bank: RBNZ remains hawkish amid stable inflation targets Risk-On Regime: VIX < 20 favors high-beta currencies like NZD 🇨🇦 CAD – Bearish Policy vs Data Mismatch: BoC hawkish, but weak retail & CPI data Global Headwinds: Commodity weakness and trade risks weigh on CAD 🧩 Confluences ✅ NZD macro & conditional strength ✅ CAD stagnation ✅ Risk-on favors NZD ✅ Technical breakout + higher high confirmed
Long
by wajahatarif
2
NZDJPY Long: Fib 0.786 Retest + Strong NZD Momentum🔹 Pair: NZD/JPY 🔹 Timeframe: Daily 🔹 Direction: Long 🔹 Status: Price holding Fib 0.786 retracement level (bullish structure intact) 🔹 Entry Zone: ~85.50–85.60 (Live entry) 📊 Fundamental Confluence 🇳🇿 NZD – Bullish Momentum Conditional Score Jump: 🚀 From 8 → 13 (Strongest improvement this week). Seasonality: 🔼 Strong seasonal bias from mid-May onward. CB Stance: Hawkish — RBNZ cautious but maintains restrictive policy. Global Risk-On: VIX < 20 supports high-beta currencies like NZD. 🇯🇵 JPY – Weakening BoJ Outlook: Delayed inflation target to 2027 = no urgency to tighten. Score Flat: Minor improvement (11 → 12), not enough to change bias. Risk Sentiment: Safe-haven demand dropping, weakening JPY. Macro Drag: Japan underperforming vs G7 counterparts.
Long
by wajahatarif
AUDJPY Long: Buy the Dip into Trendline + Seasonal AUD Surge🔹 Pair: AUD/JPY 🔹 Timeframe: 4H 🔹 Direction: Long 🔹 Status: Retesting Trendline Support 🔹 Entry Zone: 93.20–93.40 (Live Entry Area) ⸻ 📊 Macro & Fundamental Confluence 🇦🇺 AUD – Bullish • Strong Seasonality: Historically bullish May 19 – June 10. • Conditional Score Rise: From 21 → 24 = Positive momentum shift. • Dovish CB, But Risk-On: Supports carry trade flows into AUD. • Macro View: Rebalancing inflation & trend recovery, AUD outperforming. 🇯🇵 JPY – Bearish • BoJ Hawkish Talk, Dovish Action: Delayed inflation targets (to 2027). • Score Flat: Minor rise (11 → 12), showing underperformance. • Risk-On Mood: With VIX under 20, safe-haven demand fading. • Macro Lag: JPY weakest G7 performer year-to-date. 🧠 Confluences Supporting the Trade ✅ Seasonal AUD strength ✅ Fundamental divergence: AUD strong, JPY weak ✅ Risk-on regime (favoring carry trades like AUDJPY) ✅ Trendline respected since April (bullish market structure) ✅ Support zone at 93.00–93.30 area ⸻ 📈 Technical Setup • Entry Zone: 93.20–93.40 • Stop Loss: 92.08 (below structure and ascending trendline) • Take Profit: • TP1: 95.40 (resistance zone) • TP2: 96.00 (supply zone retest) • Risk:Reward: ~1.8 – 2.2 depending on final entry 📌 Execution Notes Watching for candle closure confirmation above 93.50. Break below 92.08 invalidates the bullish bias. This setup combines macro divergence, seasonal strength, and clean 4H market structure. ⸻ 💬 Are you trading AUDJPY this week? Drop your thoughts below ⬇️
Long
by wajahatarif
AUDCAD Long: Riding Aussie Strength vs Weak Loonie 🔹 Pair: AUD/CAD 🔹 Timeframe: 4H 🔹 Direction: Long 🔹 Strategy: Trend Continuation + Macro Confluence 🔹 Trade Active: 📍 0.8945 (CMP) 📊 Fundamental Bias 🇦🇺 AUD – Bullish • Seasonal Surge: Historically strong from May 19 to June 10. • Conditional Score Gain: AUD rose from 21 → 24 (momentum improving). • Macro View: Inflation stabilizing, dovish stance offset by improving sentiment. • VIX < 20: Risk-on conditions favor AUD. 🇨🇦 CAD – Bearish • Flat Conditional Score: No improvement (2 → 2). • Hawkish CB but Weak Data: CPI softening, trade risks persist. • Global Sentiment: Oil stagnation + cautious BoC tone = headwinds for CAD. ⸻ 🧠 Confluence Summary ✅ AUD macro + seasonal strength ✅ CAD remains fundamentally weak ✅ Risk-on supports commodity currencies ✅ 4H trendline support holding ⸻ 🖼️ Technical Setup • Entry: 0.8945 • Stop Loss: 0.8890 (below ascending trendline + support zone) • Take Profit: 0.9036 (prior resistance + TP1) • Risk:Reward: ~1.67 🟠 Optional Target: 0.9045 for extended move. 📌 Outlook I’m bullish on AUDCAD for the week of May 19–23, supported by: • Seasonal patterns • Risk tone • CAD stagnation • Clear trend structure Will look to trail SL as price closes above 0.8975. Clean invalidation below 0.8890. ⸻ 💬 What’s your bias on AUD this week? Drop a comment & let’s discuss 📉📈
Long
by wajahatarif
AUDJPY Trade Setup (Bullish Bias)🔥 Setup Summary: Item Details Bias: ✅ Bullish Reasoning: - Fundamentals strong (expectation no interest rate cuts + CPI bullish) - JPY weak + overbought COT - Exogenous: AUD strengthening - Seasonality bearish short-term BUT medium-term bias bullish Primary Entry: 🔑 92.30 (Buy Zone) Dip Buy Zone: 🔄 91.80 – 92.00 (0.5–0.618 Fib retrace) Stop Loss: 🚫 90.54 (below structure + 0.786 Fib) Take Profit 1: 🎯 94.15 (below last swing high) Take Profit 2: 🎯 95.00+ (extended target for trend continuation) Risk:Reward: ~1:3+ (Entry at 92.3 / TP at 94.15–95.00)
Long
by wajahatarif
CHFJPY – Bearish Reversal Setup (Mid-April)Summary CHFJPY short is supported by weak macro + divergence + seasonal timing. CHF is fundamentally the weakest major, while JPY is seasonally strong and technically aligned. 🧠 Fundamental & Seasonal Overview CHFJPY presents a high-probability short opportunity for the second half of April: CHF Fundamentals = Weakest among majors ↳ SNB recently cut rates to 0.25%, CPI down to 0.3%, GDP slowing ↳ Exo+LEI Score ≈ -1143 — highly bearish JPY Fundamentals Improving ↳ BoJ cautiously hawkish (wage growth + inflation rising) ↳ Seasonality favors JPY mid-late April COT: CHF near top → risk of unwind; JPY also elevated, but justified by fundamentals 📉 Seasonality CHFJPY is historically bearish from April 15–30 CHF flat to weak, while JPY typically strengthens in risk-off flows and Q2
Short
by wajahatarif
GBPJPY – Breakout Buy Setup (Macro Alignment)GBPJPY long setup backed by rising LEI, strong macro trend, JPY weakness, and bullish seasonal window approaching after April 24. Waiting for breakout confirmation above resistance to validate entry. 🧠 Macro + Model Alignment LEI score rising → 33 (April), macro outlook improving Exo+LEI = 1153 → strong bullish signal JPY COT: Overbought → reversal risk GBP fundamentals outperform JPY across April Seasonality: GBP bearish till April 24, then bullish into month-end 📌 Best entry window = April 25+ 📊 Technical Setup – 1H Chart Price testing key resistance zone ~190.00 Watching for breakout & candle close above resistance for confirmation Clear R:R with defined structure zones 📥 Entry: Break and close above 190.284 ⛔ Stop Loss: 187.414 🎯 Take Profit: 192.608 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2+ Confirmation required before entry ✅
Long
by wajahatarif
4
GBP/USD – Breakout Retest Setup🔍 Macro Fundamentals LEI improving → 86.8 → 90 Exo + LEI score = 78.5 → Healthy trend continuation bias Exogenous factors: April score 4.5 → positive skew USD macro weak & dovish, GBP maintaining hawkish tone 📅 Seasonality 📈 GBP bullish from April 24 onward 📉 USD bearish all month ✅ Perfect seasonality window for bullish GBP/USD swing 📊 COT Sentiment Both GBP and USD = ⚖️ Neutral → No positioning pressure, clean technical entry expected 📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart) Price has broken out of structure, now retesting resistance as support Structure forming above 1.32312, with a solid upside trend 🔁 Plan: Enter on breakout retest for trend continuation 📥 Entry: 1.32312 ⛔ Stop Loss: 1.31581 (below structure) 🎯 Take Profit: Trail or target based on 1.3550–1.3600 zone 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2+
Long
by wajahatarif
EUR/USD – Pullback Entry After Weekly Breakout🧠 Macro View LEI rising steadily: 71.5 → 81.15 Endogenous strength improving each month Exo+LEI composite score: 498.65 → one of the strongest major FX models USD: Fundamentally weak with dovish Fed, neutral COT 📅 Seasonality 📈 EUR Index bullish throughout April 📉 USD Index bearish all month 🔥 EUR/USD seasonality = strong long bias into April 30 📈 Technical Setup (4H Chart) Price has broken weekly resistance → now acting as turncoat support Expecting pullback to 0.382 Fib level (~1.1462) before continuation Structure + macro + seasonality aligned for high-conviction long 📥 Entry: 1.1462 (Fib 0.382 retracement zone) ⛔ Stop Loss: Below (1.12424) 🎯 Take Profit: Retest high or 1.1583 and beyond (extension optional) 🧮 R:R ≈ 1:2.2+
Long
by wajahatarif
EURCAD Breakdown Watch–Bearish Divergence + Fundamental WeaknessEURCAD rallied into a key turncoat zone (former resistance → support) Currently consolidating within this zone and showing clear RSI bearish divergence on both 1H and 4H timeframes. Price is losing momentum while macro and seasonal factors align for a short bias. 🔍 Macro & Seasonality Confluence: EUR Fundamentals: Worsening LEI, Endogenous & Exogenous scores CAD Stability: Mildly bearish, but stronger than EUR Seasonal Bias: EURCAD turns bearish after April 15
Short
by wajahatarif
1