New EUR/USD macro trend?Maybe the next 10 years EUR/USD bull run?...
...Are we too much scary with US debt rate?
Who knows...
Macrotrend
NASDAQ- TINA?Sure, low yield rate alone doesn’t justify the extremely high valuation of NASDAQ, but many investors may have overlooked other factors that may have contributed to NDX's rise.
Quick recap of recent macro events-
THE BAD
Corporate profits in the United States dropped 11.8 percent to USD 1,569.2 billion in the second half of 2020, following a downwardly revised 11 percent fall in the previous period, a preliminary estimate showed. It was the sharpest decline in corporate profits since the last quarter of 2008, amid the coronavirus crisis.
According to association of corporate growth, 81% of middle-sized business failed to get a loan through the Fed’s Main Street lending program. Of course, survey might contain the selection bias.
According to S&P Global Market Intelligence, U.S. bankruptcies are on pace to hit their worst levels in 10 years , with experts expecting even more companies to suffer as the coronavirus pandemic stifles economic activity.
A total of 424 companies have gone bankrupt this year as of Aug. 9. Over 100 consumer-focused companies have gone bankrupt this year already. Industrials and energy combined account for nearly 100 bankruptcies. Overall, 35 companies that filed for bankruptcies year-to-date reported more than $1 billion in liabilities.
THE GOOD
Out of the 35 companies that filed for bankruptcies year-to-date and reported more than $1 billion in liabilities, none came from IT.
Overall, only 17 out of 424 companies that have gone bankrupt this year came from information technology.
Most came from large retail, energy, and transportation. Of course, when a big portion of sectors becomes highly unprofitable, investor's money would appropriately reward ones that remain profitable.
According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, The forbearance rate for mortgages backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac dropped to 4.94% in the first week
of August, the first time it’s been below 5% since April.
Almost all housing indicators are up except mortgage origination rate.
THE INEVITABLE
In my opinion, the potential acceleration of industry consolidation is a bigger concern than dislocation. J&J and Apple, for example, are able to get 40yr loan at 3-4 percent interest rate. Low interest rate encourages big firms to refinance and borrow so they can more easily build up large cash cushion for M&A pursuit which ultimately might hurt consumers.
According to American association of individual investors’s July asset allocation survey, individual investors’ exposure to fixed-income assets declined to its lowest level in 15 months. Again, no one likes low yield rate and I would guess most money go into the equity market especially profitable sectors such as tech.
Some investors are still hoping for the dip back to the March lvl.
According to research note from Bank of America securities, since 1928, the 30% market drawdown happens once every decade and the average time for the market to bounce back after a drawdown of 20% or more is 4.4 years.
The two most similar situations in terms of magnitude of drawdown happened in 1987 & 1968 and it took them 101 days and 543 days respectively before the bottom was reached. Many of us thought this time would be the same especially since rarely has the bottom been reached at the onset of recession.
Well, guess what? Many of us have been fooled into believing that this time would be no different without realizing the underlying condition has changed... There was no QE back then.
Past doesn’t always predict the future especially if the underlying condition no longer applies.
Despite of the string of bad macro signals I listed above, market remains unfazed and marches on.
No party can last forever though. I believe that such a meteoric rise in tech stocks will come at the expense of long-term return as high valuation today leads to weak return tomorrow. Inevitably, valuation mean will one day revert lower to stay in line with historical trends.
However, none of us knows exactly when it will happen.
Therefore, waiting on the sideline, incurring the opportunity cost and missing out on all the gain is not the way to go either.
Time like this is why risk management and asset allocation matter.
CURA Structural Support| Resistance Confluence| Declining VolumeEvening Traders,
Today’s Technical Analysis – CURA – holding a key support with the current volume clearly declining, a move will be imminent with a subsequent influx.
Points to consider,
- Macro trend bearish
- Resistance confluence
- Structural support being tested
- RSI above 50
- Stochastics projected down
- Declining volume
CURA’s overall trend is bearish with consecutive lower highs, currently recovering from oversold conditions that needs momentum follow through.
There is resistance confluence with the .50 Fibonacci and the 100 EMA; price needs to trade above it to establish a higher high for the local trend to remain true.
Structural support is being tested; current candle closes have been bearish, indicating weakness in the bulls.
The RSI is trading above 50, likely to break if current support does not hold. The stochastics on the other hand is at a key level, if the higher low projection does not hold, the sell cross will increase momentum to the downside.
Volume is declining; technically this leads to an influx at key trade locations.
Overall, in my opinion, CURA needs to hold structural support for a probable higher low. With the declining volume at support, this is an indication of an impulsive move. If support breaks then the macro trend is still intact.
What are your thoughts?
Please leave a like and comment,
And remember,
“Ultimately, consistent profitability comes down to choosing between the discomforts you feel when you follow your plan and the urge to let yourself be captures ( and ruled) by your emotions.” ― Yvan Byeajee
Caution! Macro Descending Triangle!!!Friends, do not forget the big picture before going too crazy from Crypto Twitter's euphoria like you're a cat on catnip or Scarface with your face in a table full of powder! If you are trading use stop losses! If you are investing, buy the dips. NEVER invest more than you can afford to lose, and last but not least, if you did not understand any of the above, Google dollar-cost averaging (DCA) and invest by DCA while you learn to trade. That way you'll be able to sleep at night while getting acquainted with the wonderful world of bitcoin and its children, shitcoins!
Now, go make sick gains, wisely! :D
BTC (Y19.P2.E24).Macro.Interesting.Observations.E01While the BTC chart does what it does, I thought I play around with the MACRO level (again) to see if there is any confluences, clues as to what's going on.
This comes in handy as one forgets what scenarios we visited in the pas (in mind) so refreshing these ideas can be useful. It did in this case
With the recent developments, I found out another fact, to share below.
>> I have 2 scenarios to share (more to come at the macro level)
A) Descending Macro triangle (in blue, range from 9.5K to 14K ), and with its target as 5400 range (as per chart)
B) Using the Trend-base Fib. extension tool, the chart (with red marking pivotal points) shows the setup and how it reached the 0.618 mark, x2, confirming a double bottom .
The Question comes to mind, could the target also be the 0.786 mark just like A) target, thereby having confluence for the bottom??
>> Now another observation:
Separately, one can observe the bottom of the channel and the irregular top part of the channel with a fake breakout (manipulation that went up 40%.?)
Maybe we ignore this top range for the channel's formation integrity but by doing so we ignore the reality and the pivotal points.
Either way, one can use this to see a downward wedge formation within the channel and we observe a current break out of this, even though its still in the downward MACRO channel.
I thought its worth sharing so people can ponder on it and come up with their own conclusions.
>> NEXT
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In the past, I posted this, all Fibonacci.
Interesting results if you play it forward (accurate support \resistance and pivotal points)
I will revisit this next and update it.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Please give a thumbs up or a like if you agree or just appreciate the effort.
Regards,
S.Sari /CryptoProspa
Don't play long with your neckline, please.Today, I like to bring you the new update also with some of risks below support at 1D candles chart.
From the previous update, XRP formed into better looking, pink bottom shape.
I remake green canal too. Now we need to see holidng Ripple in these ranges to keep my bull mode on.
At the opposite direction, I just reverse my FIBO and mark important levels with green color.
It's a lot of support below actual price, of course.
Declining at daily average volumes could mean waiting for the next Bitcoin move and preparing for breakout in maybe 2 weeks , or sooner.
PS: Maybe, that right shoulder will formed to wider / as left / , by time...
Not too much to say now. So I will stay neutral and watching what's next, with alerts on .
Also to mention , every upside breakout wasn't sustainable !
cheerz
*This is not a financial or investment advice. Never trade/invest, by my personal ideas.
Bitcoin Fibonacci Analysis Into HalvingDONT FORGET ABOUT ME
- Bitcoin Loves respecting the Fibonacci retracement tool. This chart compares the hidden upwards trending Fibonacci Channel and the middle term Bear Market channel we have been stuck in since June. This is an experimental chart possibly breaking into the realm of Trend based Fibonacci Market timing.
- At the time of posting the price has almost retraced to the 61.8 regular fib retracement level after the 42% pump from $7350. This retracement coincides with a 1.618 uptrend channel line touch, ranging down from a 1.382 downtrend resistance. The chart beautifully shows how the paired Fibonacci levels of: 38.2 & 61.8, 23.6 & 78.6, and levels divisible by 0.5... mirror and affect the price together.
- Price in the consolidation phase of a market move tends to range on the hidden .5 divisible levels before a final pump or dump to the 31.8, 61.8, 78.6, or 0.5 divisible levels. When the price then moves to one of these levels it triggers a weekly/monthly price reversal which can be capitalized upon. After a reversal touch, Price should shoot back through levels ending in .5 and profits should begin to be taken at the mirrored level on the opposite sloping fib channel. This sort of middle-market flirtation with .5 levels occurs twice on this chart already: during the months of Aug - Sep 19' (Short), and Oct 19'(Long).
- In the short term, I find it likely for Bitcoin to drop the 0.382 level through 0.5 and be supported by the 0.618 level. A price divergence down to the 61.8 bear channel support level of $8,400 - $7,800 likely could give Bitcoin the upside momentum to break the 0 Level resistance. A break of the 0 Level resistance would cause the price to search for a target to the $14,000 2019 bear market wedge. Unless Bitcoin ranges below $9,500 for the next few months, A pre-halving price target of anywhere between $11,200 and $17,200 is probable. Hard Stance: Bitcoin below $7,800 is unlikely, In the event $7,800 is dropped look to $7,400 & $6,800 for support.
- Good Entry Points based on recent price accordance to Fibonacci:
Long: 61.8, 78.6, & 0.5 Divisible level downside touch
Short: 23.6, 38.2, & 0.5 divisible level upside touch
Ex Pos.
Entry Long: 0.618 Uptrend touch --- Begin profit-taking -1.382 Downtrend Touch (Hold for potential max profit at -2)
Following this Chart and will benefit the prepared & savvy Bitcoiner who understands that everything must respect the fundamental sequencing of nature.
Dual trend exploitationI've not seen this sort of stuff before on Tradingview, so I do apologise if everybody knows about it.
I show how I used both a microtrend change on a 15 min time frame and a macrotrend position to get a suitable entry position on Japan225. Note carefully, that this is not a 'win'. I totally expect to lose but if that happens the loss will be minimal. If however the trend moves in my favour, I shall simply follow it without need of a target or predefined get-out point. In this way I do not need to 'predict' anything.
Big Short Setup on Silver on a Weekly Chart!Big, big bearish setup on a Weekly chart of Silver projecting a target of 9$ per ounce over the coming months. Great opportunity to accumulate Silver bullion as the price steadily falls over the upcoming months while holding a short position on an CFD/futures contract.
As a trading opportunity it gives you a R/R ratio of about 21/1
Sell @ 16.159 Stop Loss @ 16.523 Take Profit @ 9.062
Trade safe. Trade smart.
Third Indicator of upward move for BABAHistorically when the Coppock Curve reaches this level, the stock moves at least 1% higher over the next few weeks with an average move of 15%. This chart depicts multiple levels of interest over the next few months.
In the current MACRO trend channel, it took BABA about 64 trading days to go from the top of the channel to the bottom (Nov 15-Feb 16) in a move that lost 31.44%. This same top to bottom was recently repeated in 60 trading days and only 21.72% was shed.
After the 2016 drop, BABA moved bottom to a top in about 49 trading days which gained 37.96%. My longer term outlook is for something similar to occur. IF BABA breaks above its current down trend channel, upward movement could continue toward 109.23 around March 1.
For now my conservative play is a move to at least 96.00 over the next few weeks. World events could keep BABA in the current down trend channel for a much longer period of time. Of interest is a potential selloff after DJY0 reaches 20K and/or the swearing in of President Trump which brings to fruition some international policies. Trump could stir up tariffs, embargos, or other vital trade implications especially with China that could weaken some of BABA's international imports and exports.
Bottom line, look for BABA to move to 96.00, and then 109.00 once the current MICRO trend is broken upward.
