Macy's - M Stock AnalysisThe idea is to go long, but first wait that the Resistance 1 of 6.5 USD will be broken
Macys
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Macy's Stock Analysis - M Technical and Fundamental AnalysisBased on Technical Analysis - Hold the position before buying as the stores will open starting from Monday:
Macy’s is planning to reopen 68 department stores Monday.
It expects to have all of its roughly 775 stores reopened in six week
Fundamental Analysis - as usual gives us bed news (that perhaps they have already been discounted by the prices)
Macy's will delay its first-quarter earnings until July 1 due to the "significant business disruption"
On June 9, Macy's will release "select and preliminary" first-quarter results before the markets open
Macy's at a Downward Spiral, but has Long PotentialPlease don't take anything I say seriously or as financial advice. As always, this is on opinion based basis. First off, for buying Macy's as a stock right now prior to the earnings call, there is no way I am doing that (even if it goes up). Given the dramatic hit that retail took, the earnings call is expected to not be so positive and the risk is too high. However afterwards, Macys does have potential for a long asset hold. The demand curve for retail is expected to go back up when everything is back to normal, and it took a hit from being $17 shy of few month ago.
$M Macy's looks to have a slight down trend before bull marketRSI divergence is our main sell signal here. There's also some fractal support/resistance here.
Will be re-entering $M @ 5.20.
REMEMBER
Risk Management 50% of trading
Technical analysis 25% of trading
Fundamentals 25% of trading
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Best of luck to everyone!
Macy's, Inc. (M) long.All description on the chart.
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M: Macys worth a gamble?Not encourging anyone to jump on a stock that has had a continuous bear trend even through the greatest US market run in history, but it may be worth a gamble here. If it can recover (as it has in the past) the gains could be fairly absurd. As you can see, buying in now and then achieving its previous high will be almost a 600% gain. Again, not encouraging anyone to buy something that has been on a downward spiral since 2015. :)
$M can continue correlate with $SPYCorrelation trading strategy idea analysis.
The market was very volatile all the last three weeks.
There are a lot of freshly formed support and resistance levels.
Also, there are some older levels, which were formed in 2008.
So it is a very good time for correlation trading.
I showed my vision of correlated moves in my previous ideas.
Today I am going to show you a possibility of correlation trading of $M.
Now Macy's is a very cheap stock with good enough correlation with SPY.
Look on the $SPY and $M charts.
Actual corresponding support&resistance levels look so much alike.
We can expect future similar moves.
Following the correlation trading strategy, it is reasonable to wait for correlated level breaking.
When $SPY and $M simultaneously break their resistance levels, It will be possible to buy $M.
When $SPY and $M simultaneously break their support levels, It will be possible to short $M.
Do not view this idea as a recommendation for trading or investing. It is published only to introduce my own vision.
Always do your own analysis before making deals. When you use any materials, do not rely on blind trust.
You should remember that isolated deals do not give systematic profit, so trade/invest using a developed strategy.
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$M Is On The Verge Of A Breakout$M has caught our eye. The stock does have more work to do, but it is on the verge of a breakout. We need to get above $18 to confirm, but we also believe that the lows of $14.11 are in. We believe investors and funds are going to start banking on a $M turnaround. Here's the latest news on the $M turnaround.
Macy’s plans to shutter 125 department stores over the next three years.
It is cutting about 2,000 corporate jobs.
Macy’s offers fresh three-year financial targets ahead of a meeting with investors.
Macy’s said it plans to exit weaker shopping malls, and instead shift its focus toward opening smaller-format stores in strip centers. Macy’s has shuttered more than 100 stores since 2015.
Macy’s is calling 2020 a “transition year” and says it expects same-store sales to be negative, “due to the trajectory of the business over the past six months.”
Macy’s said Tuesday it expects revenues in fiscal 2020 to fall because of store closures. It is calling for net sales to be within a range of $23.6 billion to $23.9 billion, with same-store sales, on an owned plus licensed basis, dropping 1.5% to 2.5%. Analysts had been calling for net sales of $24.36 billion, according to a poll by Refinitiv.
While it hasn’t yet reported fourth-quarter and full-year earnings for 2019, Macy’s shared preliminary results ahead of its investor meeting.
Net sales for the fourth quarter, which includes the latest holiday season, are expected to be $8.3 billion, while net sales for fiscal 2019 are expected to be $24.5 billion, Macy’s said. It added it anticipates full-year earnings per share to be near the high-end of a prior outlook, of $2.57 to $2.77.
Here are some stats we like:
28% of the float is short
$M trading 7x 2020 earnings, 0.22x sales, and 0.89x book.
Lastly, we like M$ stores. We shop at $M stores and we do think others do as well. We don't see them going out of business.
As always, use protective stops and trade with caution.
Good luck to all!
M - LONG SETUPBEEN SELLING OFF FOR AWHILE NOW. ON HISTORICAL SUPPORT SHOWING DIVERGENCE ON BOTH OSCILLATORS.
THE WEEK AHEAD: HD, LOW, TGT, GPS, M EARNINGS; /NG, VIX, VXXEARNINGS:
HD (24/21) (Tuesday Before Market)
LOW (68/35) (Wednesday Before Market)
TGT (66/37) (Wednesday Before Market)
GPS (60/53) (Thursday After Market)
M (97/67) (Thursday Before Market)
Pictured here is an M short straddle at the 17 strike in the December cycle, paying 2.73 with 14/72/19.73 break evens, and delta/theta metrics of -4.49/3.77. Look to put on a play on Wednesday before the end of the New York session.
In second place for ideal volatility contraction metrics is GPS (60/53). As with M, I would short straddle here, with the December 20th 18 paying 2.22 with 15/78/20.22 break evens, and delta/theta metrics of 1.29/3.06.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
TLT (42/12)
EEM (40/17)
SLV (29/20)
EWZ (26/27)
FXI (26/19)
... with the first expiry in which the at-the-money short straddle pays more than 10% of the value of the underlying: TLT, January '21; EEM, June; SLV, July; EWZ, March; and FXI, May. Both the rank/implied metrics, as well as the short straddle value metric indicate that it's probably a good time to hand sit on selling shorter duration premium here.
BROAD MARKET:
With VIX finishing the week at 12.05, volatility is at or near 52 week lows here in all the majors: SPY's in the 6th percentile; IWM in the 4th; and QQQ at 0.
The first expiry in which the at-the money short straddle pays greater than 10% of the value of the underlying: SPY, Sept; IWM, June; and QQQ, June. Both the rank/implied metrics, as well as the short straddle value metric indicate that it's probably a good time to hand sit on selling shorter duration premium here.
FUTURES:
/6B (63/11)
/NG (40/59)
/ZS (30/20)
/SI (29/19)
/CL (24/33)
As I may have mentioned last week, it's no surprise that /NG volatility is frisking up here. Generally, I play natty for seasonality, so look to get in with something bullish assumption at seasonal lows/peak injection, bail out of the long delta position in January or February depending on how Mother Nature feels, and then look to ride the elevator down in the opposite direction with a short delta position. I'm not keen on selling nondirectional premium (e.g., iron condors), particularly given what natty did last winter, so am sticking with my traditional, no-nonsense seasonality play.
Another item of note: GVX (gold volatility) has dropped substantially here, finishing the week at 11.22, in the 23rd percentile for the year ... .
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
As previously mentioned, VIX closed the week at near 2019 lows (12.05), with the December, January, and February /VX contracts trading at 15.09, 16.60, and 17.50, respectively. Consequently, VIX term structure trades are still viable in the January and February expiries, but would probably beg off a December setup in the absence of a pop that runs that contract up to >16; the 16 strike is generally the lowest I will go with the short option leg of a VIX term structure trade.
As far as derivatives are concerned, this definitely isn't the place to be adding shorts. While it may be that VIX hangs out at these levels for a lengthy period of time, shorts are most productive on VIX pops -- not at VIX lows, even if contango and beta slippage are really working in shorts' favor here. As we all know, both the current steep contango and low VIX levels can evaporate in a heartbeat. If anything, this may be one of the rare occasions to consider a small bullish assumption trade (e.g., a VXX December 20th 15/17/17/19 "Super Bull,"* paying a .20 credit, with max profit/loss metrics of 2.20/1.80 and a break even of 16.80 versus the 17.40 where VXX is currently trading).
* -- A 15/17 short put vertical combined with a 17/19 long call vertical.
THE WEEK AHEAD: M EARNINGS; GDXJ, XOP, QQQ, IWM, VIXEARNINGS:
M (87/58) announces earnings this week and has the most appropriate rank/implied volatility metrics for a contraction play.
Pictured here is a narrow short strangle in the September monthly that is almost a short straddle, set up this way primarily because M is trading at 19.43, which Is smack dab in the middle of the short strikes. It's paying 2.25 at the mid-price with delta/theta metrics of -4.39/3.11. For those looking for more room to be wrong, the 17/22 short strangle is paying .89 which is a somewhat marginal play at 50 max (.45).
Given the fact that it has been somewhat hammered, I could also see taking a bullish assumption short put shot with the 22 delta 17 strike paying .52, the 31 delta 18 paying .83, and the 42 delta 19 strike paying 1.25. For those looking to potentially acquire, it pays an annualized dividend of 1.51 with a yield of 7.39% at current share price.
EXCHANGE-TRADED FUNDS:
SLV (98/26)
GDX (97/34)
GDXJ (94/40)
TLT (88/14)
GLD (87/16)
XOP (46/39)
Having worked through setups on all of these, only GDXJ and XOP appear to present worthwhile nondirectional premium selling opportunities in the September monthly with their respective at-the-money short straddles paying in excess of 10% of the value of the stock.
The GDXJ September 20th 42 short straddle is paying 4.68 versus 41.84 spot (11.2%) with the 37/49 short strangle camped out around the 16 delta paying 1.09.
Similarly, the XOP September 20th 22 short straddle is paying 2.29 versus 22.29 spot (10.3%) with the 22/23 short strangle straddling current price paying 1.81 should you want a more delta neutral setup with a smidge of room for intratrade adjustment without going inverted.
BROAD MARKET:
EEM (37/20)
IWM (33/22)
SPY (31/18)
QQQ (31/21)
EFA (17/15)
As with the exchange-traded funds, I'm looking for setups whose at-the-money short straddles pay more than 10% of the value of where the stock is currently trading.* Because background volatility in broad market is lower than in the exchange-traded funds which are, in turn, lower than that in single name as a general rule, you'll have to go farther out in time to get paid more than 10%.
Only QQQ and IWM meet the 10% test without going crazy far out in time (although I recognize that some might consider going out to February for a play is "crazy far out").
The QQQ January 17th 186 short straddle is paying 19.23 versus 186.49 spot (10.3%) with the January 17th short strangle set up around the 16 delta strikes -- the 160/207, paying 4.40.
Similarly, the IWM February 21st 151 short straddle is paying 16.02 versus 150.62 spot (10.6%) with the 16 delta February 21st 130/168 paying 3.86.
VIX/VIX DERIVATIVES:
For you "Vol Heads" ... .
VIX closed at 17.97 on Friday with the August /VX contract trading at 18.48, so the term structure is in contango from the front month to spot. M1-M2 is also in a smidge of contango, but M2-M5 are in backwardation, presenting a wonky S-shaped term structure. Look to potentially add VXX/UVXY bearish assumption setups on VIX pops back to >20 ... .
* -- Although you're certainly free to sell at-the-money straddles in these instruments, I'm using the short straddle value as more of a test to see whether the premium is sufficient to be "worth it." If it isn't worth It at-the-money, then out-of-the-money short strangles are probably aren't worth it, either.
THE WEEK AHEAD: M EARNINGS; OIH, XOP, ASHR, FXI, IBB PREMIUMI'm personally not doing a ton here with May opex a mere week away and June at 40 days until expiry, which is a smidge short of that 45 day wheel house I like to use for putting on plays. However, there is "stuff" to do if you're so inclined ... .
M (71/54) announces earnings on Wednesday before market open, so you'll want to shoot for a fill on whatever you do on Tuesday before market close. Pictured here is a fairly Plain Jane June 21st 20/25 directionally neutral short strangle paying 1.08 at the mid price with break evens of 18.92/26.08 and delta/theta metrics of -2.51/2.84. With May opex options having an implied of 88.9% versus June's 49.6%, we're looking at a fairly big volatility crush post-earnings ... .
Macy's has been hammered (it's within 5% of its 52-week low of 22.11), so I could also see the attractiveness of just going purely directional here. The June 21st 22 short put is paying 1.34 with a cost basis of 20.66 in shares if assigned (an 8% discount over current price). It pays an annualized dividend of 1.51 -- a 6.65% yield -- with the last quarterly divvy of .37 being distributed on 4/1 with a record date of 3/15 (i.e., you want to get into shares before 6/15 or so if you want to grab the next dividend).
On the exchange-traded fund front, here are the top five ordered by rank -- ASHR (74/32), GDXJ (51/28), FXI (50/23), IBB (46/26), and EFA (44/14), and the top five ordered by 30-day: OIH (37/34), XOP (29/33), ASHR (74/32), EWZ (25/32), and XBI (39/32). If I was going to be picky here, I'd probably wait for more ideal rank/30-day metrics (>50/>35), but ASHR approaches those metrics, even though it falls short of the 30-day 35% mark by a touch.
Here are some ASHR setups that might be worth looking at:
The June 21st 23/26/28/31 Iron Condor: It's almost so narrow in the body as to approach an iron fly, but it's the only way you'll get one-third the width of the wings out of a defined risk setup without going full-on fly. Paying 1.09 at the mid price (.54 at 50 max), it's got expected move break evens and a delta/theta metric of -3.20/1.27.
The June 21st 27 Short Straddle: Paying 2.20 at the mid price (.55 at 25 max), break evens at 24.80/29.20, delta/theta of -5.22/2.70.
Alternatively, there is the more liquid FXI (50/23). Although you'll have to put up with a lower 30-day, you can be more surgical since market makers have been kind enough to provide half-dollar strikes even in the monthly 40 days out.
The June 21st 37.5/40.5/43.5/46.5 pays 1.01 with break evens wide of the expected move at 39.49/44.51 and delta/theta numbers of -2.69/1.36.
The June 21st even-striked 40/44 short strangle pays 1.02 with more forgiving break evens at 38.98/45.02 and delta/theta figures of 2.06/2.58.
THE WEEK AHEAD: M EARNINGS, XOP, TSLA, FCX, X, TWTR, BIDUPictured here is the only earnings announcement-related volatility contraction play with the metrics I'm looking for: greater than 70% rank and greater than 50% 30-day (it was 68/55 as of Friday close). Setup Metrics: 3.40 credit, break evens at 20.60/27.40, -8.20 delta, 3.1 theta.
Obvious alternatives would be the April 18th 21/27 short strangle paying 1.21 with break evens at 19.79/28.21, a delta of -4.5, and theta of 2.43 and -- for those with a defined risk bent -- the 19/22/26/29 iron condor in the same expiry, paying 1.23 with 20.77/27.23 break evens, a -2.64 delta, and a theta of 1.15.
On the exchange-traded fund front, the highest volatility remains in petro, with OIH, XOP, and USO taking the top three spots for 30-day implied at 31, 30, and 29, respectively, followed by EWZ at 29, and GDXJ at 26. With the exception of GDXJ, however, all of these are in the lower one quarter of their 52-week range (GDXJ's in the 31st percentile). As with last week, I'll continue to sell premium in XOP, albeit smaller than usual, reserving buying power for a richer volatility environment.
Single names with earnings in the rear view ranked by 30-day: TSLA (12/49), FCX (24/43), X (18/43), TWTR (8/38), and BIDU (24/35). I'm in a FCX slightly bullish short straddle at 14 as a kind of quasi-bullish copper play, and have gone with a "not a penny more" short put in X (See Posts Below).
As alternative plays, the X April 18th 24 short straddle is paying 2.83 (.71 at 25% max) with the 21/27 short strangle paying .84 (.42 at 50% max)
The TWTR April 18th 32 short straddle is paying 3.61 at the mid (.90 at 25% max) with the 28/35 short strangle paying 1.19 (.60 at 50% max) in the same expiry.
Spreads in both TSLA and BIDU are unattractively wide.
Macy's tumbles 14.8 per cent in pre market sessionMacy's tumbles 14.8 per cent in pre market session
Macy's will there be follow thru?Macy’s on Wednesday reported quarterly earnings that topped analysts’ expectations, saying strong digital sales boosted results, while the retailer continues to make investments to improve its stores.
The department store chain also raised its earnings outlook for the full year, expecting a strong holiday quarter.
Its shares were up as much as 4.5 percent in premarket trading on the news but recently were down less than 1 percent.
Here’s what Macy’s reported compared with what Wall Street was expecting, based on a survey of analysts by Refinitiv:
* Earnings per share: 27 cents, adjusted, vs. 14 cents expected
* Revenue: $5.40 billion vs. $5.41 billion expected
* Same-store sales: up 3.3 percent, on an owned plus licensed basis, vs. growth of 2.8 percent expected
