Bi-Weekly broad market TA. 30 April 2019.- Prologue -
I think it would be optimal for me to check markets twice a week.
So maybe Monday and Thursday?
And the rest of the time just work on new strategies, improving, troll posting, whatever.
And not forgetting to check my tagged charts once or twice a day.
Apart from learning and designing a system, trading regularly comes in 3 parts:
1- What I am doing now, stalking charts pretty much. Build a bias look for potential opportunities. This is the easy part or is it but have to be consistent and well organised. Do this like a robot.
2- The hardest part, use skillz/experience to decide yes or no do I enter, as well as all the important details: Where should my SL be? Where should my target be?
3- Ride that winner or not. Take profit at target or run it more? Take profit early or not? Emotions etc also. Weak minds or people that are unable to cut losses will fail here.
I can mostly only help with part 1. I like sharing, even with all the angry crypto longs calling me the biggest idiot each time I talk about bearish news or post a short idea (and not saying anything or even congratulating me when I am long).
Every one is not one of these on this site, some people are interesting.
I actually have a watchlist of 42 now. A main one of 21 (indices + majors + Gold Oil Crypto) + a secondary one with 21 minors. Will post only the ones I think are interesting.
I actually designed a 3rd strategy the past 10 days (had only two before). But still I do not have a clue had to trade choppy price action or whether it is possible to do it profitably. Seems pretty radom to me.
Let's get into it.
- Indices -
For indices real quick FAANG some earnings have been good some bad, Apple is in a few days.
Google gapped down 100$. Might cause a snowball, or not. Still waiting...
I am interested in doing everything: buying pullbacks, trading consolidation buy support/sell resistance, and even countertrend trading. I see opportunities but they're all the same - short. So since I have already been calling short and shorting the snp there is no point just doubling up. I will buy pullbacks to 0.382.
- Majors -
Still pretty much the same. I really have nothing with most of them such as EURUSD.
With the pound I see a bottom buying opportunity in a month or two, unless price keeps going up duh. Then I'll look at pullbacks or short.
Also, might want to short the Pound/USD on the 1 hour chart.
The Australian dollar: I see a buy by next week.
USDCAD: I want to fade it around 1.364
USDCHF: The big rally and break has coolen off, and my, bulls are not selling.
Plenty of eager buyers. I only buy if the price makes an ABC and bottoms.
USDMXN: Eeem Sideways.
EURJPY sideways, nothing interesting.
- Commodities -
Gold nothing new
Oil potential ABC
- Cryptocurrencies -
Bitcoin: I see a short, but funding is huge, check fees with regular FX brokers, and only short if negative balance protection, with small account.
Alcoins: maybe an alt season soon? Will look later. One last rally before the big ICO crash. Let's get rid of all the criminals and parasites.
- Minors -
EURCHF: Just keeping an eye on this. USDCHF is similar and much better.
EURNZD: Keeping an eye on it, but I do not really have an opinion.
GBPAUD: Since it keeps going back and forth I'll just buy at the next good support. 0.618 or ~1.76.
GBPCAD: Same concept. Jump on the ponzi before other people notice.
USDSEK: At all time high! Testing resistance. Is reacting but not super strongly. Yet? Buy the dip maybe.
USDTRY: Still going up... It's going to go up 1 million percent suddenly I feel XD Venezuela 2 here we go.
USDCNH: Same concept, with a delay.
Majors
EUR/USD LONG OpportunityWhat's up guys. I have spotted a new EUR/USD trading opportunity for you.
With the results of the mid-term having softened the dollar rally - we can see several opportunities to long XXXUSD pairings. Combined with my technical analysis on the graph, this pair should look to rise to at least 1.16.
Set your Stop Losses just under 1.14 to stay safe and to minimise the associated risks. Good luck!
eurusd short--- flag/head and shoulders pick your fav.lots of bearish momentum going on with EURUSD dollar right now. had a few ideas wrong last week but after looking at the daily chart it is clear i was thinking too short term. This setup seems to be a pretty safe play going off of the flag pattern. set up a sell stop at the low of the flag and a SL above and let this ride down to
this also has the potential to retouch the shoulder resistance so i would wait this one out and watch for the pair to break below the flag and then bounce before entering anything.
Nothing is trending o.0 Dead week ahead?Hey, like all my chart styles? They're pretttyyy :)
Perfect dead week ahead, good timing as I did ZERO of the research I wanted to do this week end, I want to peace out for a while.
I just set my 25-30 alerts which takes me 1h-1h30 every week (last week i only set less than 10 only wanted to trade clear trends).
I watch a little over 20 FX pairs, 4 metals, half a dozen commodities, and if I remember correctly the only one I saw clearly trending was soybeans:
And still not sure.
Oh well maybe there was 1-2 others.
What's going on lol.
I am just going to trade big supports with rsi divergence then?
I am asking myself if I did not get too demanding and too picky. But probably not, I did not become much more strict, there is really not much action only uncertainty going on.
Wasn't in a hurry to get rich anyway.
This is perfect for anyone making the jump from crypto, we can take it slowly, take our time to do research etc.
While every one is lazing around, going on holidays, we will wait in the shadows and prepare, analyse everything, chart the past, backtest strategies, and egt ready, for when the cattle is back, we will strike swiftly, and without mercy, and strike again, and again, until they are all defeated and our belly is full.
TO VICTORY!
Hot; EURUSD rocket upIt's finally happening. USDJPY (UJ) is going to drop into the Abyss and EURUSD (EU) will therefore rocket into the sky and perhaps beyond. See my writing style footnote below if the first line somehow bothers you.
Not much time before it starts (maybe it already is) but you will have plenty of time to trade both symbols because I predict EU to start a bull run lasting for almost 2 years and counting possibly up to 2700 pips or more.
Even though everything signals this process has started, pls be highly sceptical at all times. The USD purchasing bull may show up again and do another surprise run like it did a few times this week and every time again surprising me with new forms of price action.
Grab your game! Watch as the trend forms because speculators need to agree on the trend and until then it can be choppy waters. Scalpers may ike this.
Trading 101 sumup follows;
Ask me to detail a subject and I'll publish an idea if I have the time. It's a new idea of me to improve the quality of my ideas and chat messages as I have been told by other traders that I direct everybody into 100% losses :(
If you would like to scalp or day trade and don't know how to trade low volumes then stay away from Mondays and Fridays and trade only London and NY sessions. As the days may shift around due to scheduled process, do a couple of small trades to validate liquidity and therefore your r/r ratio.
Don't be fooled by the likely many signals that the market or its participants have/will set out for you, also known by many as stop hunts, traps, etc. You may already see some of this evidence right now (2.16pm UTC onwards*) similar to what we have seen before and after UJ dropped late November and early December '17, see my ideas for food for thoughts on this. Also back then, the actual process of change seems to start in extra trading hour after market close, which makes you wonder how random the market wants to look.
* Just had a look at 2.16pm UTC and discovered the head hunt is hammer making process. So one may assume it was formed by a programmed algo instead of honest buyers and sellers reacting to price change. Now that I have published this I wonder if someone else has before and if not how long it will take to change.
So start your trades not earlier than Tuesday at London open, (if it's not a holiday, I haven't checked) and do not trade Friday even if it looks like everything will be happening then. If you are confident and testing the liquidity turns out positive then go ahead, but as soon your experience negative change stop right away, call it the day and accept your losses under solid risk management.
If you are a swing trader it's also best to start your trade on Tuesday till Thursday within London or NY session as explained above. Constant liquidity will be in your favour, especially when you trade larger trade unit quantities, think of whole and multiple lots.
1) Buy the low and sell the top. This is obviously true and if applied well, improves you trading performance. How? Well, on a 4H time frame you could just enter wrongly and be looking at red numbers for at least 4 hours, while at the same time missing out opportunities on the other side of the market.
2) Buy the fall and sell the rise... ;)
Ofc you can always post questions in the FX chat room. People there sometimes seem very busy and remotely interested but that is because you may just have missed one of the many that do help out beginners or there is something interesting going on with one of the FX assets. Keep trying!
Cheers,
Arnaud
Footnote: One time message on writing style for all my ideas,
My apologies for my choice of words, it is my writing style. I like to add a little spice to the mix of the imho somewhat metaphorical stuffy and slow moving industry. My analysis and technical experience are mainly from a much faster moving and progressive industry and sector. Thanks for reading.
Another note: I hit 4k idea doc limit so I used space savers.