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$EURUSD - Some economic events that will push Euro higherHi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 Trump wants to increase the amount of these taxable checks for the Americans. Asides from the $892 billion stimulus checks, the $1.4 trillion in federal spending which is part of the Stimulus bill is also waiting for it’s approval. Donald Trump on his official Twitter account stated that the bill proposed by the Congress is a disgrace and is only $600 which is much lower than the anticipated $2000 per an individual. 🔔 The US government did not set a requirement of passing a Covid-19 test to passengers flying from the UK to the US before boarding their flight, despite the rapidly spreading new Covid-19 strain. 🔔 While the US officials argue on which action is the best to be taken to keep the new variant away from the US, the top US infectious disease expert Dr. Fauci yesterday, December 22, said on live-TV that it is possible that the new variant is already in the US. 🔔 Hanging Brexit negotiations still hold the two major European currencies in an uncertain position, whereas the deal gets postponed, however the EU Chief Negotiator on Tuesday put certainty into the deal saying that both sides are ready to make a “final push”. 🔔 Currently the pair is traded at $1.21950 which is below the resistance of 1.2200. The pair on a 4H chart has formed a symmetrical triangle and the breakout of any edge of the triangle will signal the short-term trend continuation of the pair. 🔔 If the price breaks below the lower edge of the triangle, Euro will drop towards closest support levels at $1.21227 and below that to $1.20840, though I am betting on $1.23000 🔔 The US Economic data which are expected to be released today do not look positive, Initial Jobless claims are expected to be at the same level as previously reported 885K and new home sales in November expected to drop slightly and be at 995K compared to the October’s 999K, personal spending as per November is expected to be as low as -0.2%, 0.7% lower compared to the October’s 0.5%. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
Long
by azizelliott
THE DOLLAR KEEPS FALLING AND IT WAS CALLED OUT HEREDXY UPDATE, as you can see in the previous posts that I will link here. The DXY has been dropping for the past two weeks. Notice how the market shot up in the beginning of this week to then drop. This is a classic move that happens to begin the week with making investors believe we are in a bull market. When that is not the real sentiment of the market. Im not here to brag about what I've been calling out I'm here to just keep posting my ideas and hoping that some people capitilaze on my ideas. I believe the dollar will drop even more from where its at. I got in some trades this week if you would like for me to go over them and how I connected it with my dollar analysis just let me know so we can all learn and grow. Happy trading :)
TVC:DXYShort
by JohnnWick
$USDJPY - Watch these levels carefullyHi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 Japan has been showing a steady recovery from the pandemic today’s Trade Balance and Exports data testifies. Battered US Dollar Index also supports the downtrend of the USD/JPY. 🔔 Yesterday’s US Retail Sales, import and export price indexes data announced were below the forecasted, more importantly Core Retails sales (MoM) was 1 bp lower than the previous month’s 1.2%. 🔔 On a daily USD/JPY we can witness a downtrend channel that the pair follows. One of the important metrics on this chart is that the MA100 acted as a resistance on November 11, when USD/JPY hit the upper edge of the channel. 🔔Important levels to watch are $103.70, which is a static and dynamic support on a 4H chart, closing below this level will be a ground for another round of sell-offs down to $103.166. 🔔 On both Daily and 4H charts, Moving averages act as resistances and MACD indicates bearish continuation.If there are no tangible signs of economic recovery in the US and the spirit of “uncertainty” remains, the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen might as well plummet further to near year’s minimums at $101.747.. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
Short
by azizelliott
AUD/CHF Price Action 📋, Volume Profile 📊, and VWAP analysis 📈Today, I am going to do a day trading analysis of the AUD/CHF. What I like about this pair is that there is a clear and strong uptrend (starting from 26th August). When there is an uptrend like this, I like to look for areas where heavy volumes were traded. I do this with my Flexible Volume Profile. The most recent heavy volume area got formed yesterday. There was a rotation in the Asian session, and in the European session. In this rotation, heavy volumes got traded. After this rotation, there was an aggressive buying activity that drove the price upwards again (I call this the Volume Accumulation Setup) This is another sign of strong buyers dominating the market here. Because of this new buying activity, I believe that those heavy volumes which got traded yesterday were mostly buyers adding to their long positions. When the price makes it back (a pullback) into this area again, it is likely that those strong buyers will want to defend their long positions. They will become active again and they will do their best to push the price upwards from there again. This is why I think this heavy volume area will work as strong support. The place where most of the volumes got traded (POC) is at 0.6672. This is where the reaction is most likely to happen. Weekly Volume Profile analysis Let’s now have a look at how this whole situation looks from the higher perspective. For this I use Weekly Volume Profile and 60 Minute time frame. Currently, the support I showed you is at Weekly Point Of Control. This means the heaviest volumes throughout this week (so far) were traded there. This makes the support level even more significant. The reason is that traders who trade bigger time frames also see this support and they are likely to trade it. Price Action analysis There is one more thing to all this. That is a Price Action setup which says that a breached Resistance becomes a Support. On Monday, this area got rejected – the price bounced off it strongly. This was a sign that it was a strong Resistance. Yesterday, the Resistance got breached and because of that it became a Support. This is an old Price Action setup I like to look for, and use it in combination with other trading signals. BONUS – VWAP setup There is one more thing I would like to point out in this AUD/CHF chart. It is not related to the support I talked about before. I wanted to show you a VWAP Trend Setup which played out nicely earlier today. I like to trade this setup with Weekly VWAP as it gives stronger signals than Daily VWAP. The first thing with this setup is that you wait until the price is above the 1st VWAP Deviation (that’s the grey line). This tells you that the market is trending. Then you wait until the price makes a pullback and hits the 1st Deviation from above. When it does, you enter a long trade. I hope you guys liked today’s analysis. Let me know your thoughts in the comments below! Happy trading! -Dale
by Trader_Dale
1
EUR/AUD: Volume Profile 📊 + VWAP Analysis 💮Hello guys, today I will comment on a really fresh resistance that has just formed. This resistance is an intraday trading resistance on EUR/AUD and you can best see it on a 30 Minute and 60 Minute time frame. Let’s start from the beginning – I will go through the process of my thoughts which I had when I opened the EUR/AUD chart today. The first thing that immediately caught my attention was the nice rotation that started before yesterday’s market close and ended in today’s EU session (I marked this rotation in the red rectangle). This rotation was followed by a strong selling activity. In fact, the selling activity is taking place right now, as I am writing this. It is still very fresh. Volume Accumulation Setup A rotation like this followed by a sell-off is my favorite trading setup called the Volume Accumulation Setup. The logic behind this is that sellers were accumulating their short positions in the rotation. When they have accumulated them, they have started a strong selling activity with the intention of driving the price into a downtrend. In that trend, they would make money on their shorts. When the price makes it back into the area where they placed most of their short positions (around 1.6348), they will try and defend those positions. Those sellers defending their shorts should push the price downwards from the 1.6348 again. That’s why I think the area around 1.6348 is a strong intraday resistance. I also like how this situation looks on the 60 Minute chart with Weekly Volume Profile and Weekly VWAP. Weekly Volume Profile The Weekly Volume Profile shows a nice volume cluster at the resistance. This means that those volumes we spoke of are also significant from higher (weekly) perspective. Weekly VWAP The 1st Deviation of Weekly VWAP (the grey line) is showing a trend. There already was one nice reaction to it (based on a VWAP Trend Setup). Now, the 1st Deviation is heading downwards and it is quite possible that it will reach the area around our resistance (1.6348). If it does reach it at the same moment as the price retraces there, it would be a really nice signal confluence of VWAP and Volume Profile setups. Let’s wait and see… Be careful of aggressive Rejection As i said in the beginning, this resistance is still fresh. There could be aggressive buyers waiting. Those aggressive buyers could cause a strong rejection of lower prices. So, if there is an aggressive rejection (like I draw in the picture below) then it would mean aggressive buyers are present and a short trade form the 1.6348 resistance would be risky. You always need to be careful about a scenario like this when trading freshly formed levels. I hope you guys liked today’s analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below! Happy trading! -Dale
by Trader_Dale
2
EUR/USD: Long-term ⏱️ Trading Analysis - Volume Profile 📊In this trading analysis, I am going to focus on long-term position trading on the EUR/USD. The great advantage of long-term position trading is that you don’t have to sit in front of the screen all day and you can still have really good trading results. In fact, many people have way better results with this kind of trading approach than for example with intraday trading. In my opinion, the reason is that price reacts better to strong long-term supports and resistances than to weaker intraday trading levels. The reason is that there could easily be a change of sentiment/mood during intraday trading session. On the other hand, with long-term investing you don’t need to care about this too much. You also don’t need to care about any macro news and news releases. They don’t really play any important role in this big scope. In this analysis, I am going to focus only on the EUR/USD on a Weekly time frame and I am going to point out the most important institutional S/R areas. Resistance at 1.2300 In 2018 the price of EUR/USD dramatically changed. First there was a really strong uptrend but then it turned and a strong sell-off started. Anyways, in the area of the strong rejection, there were massive volumes accumulated. After this volume accumulation ended, there was a strong sell-off. Because of this sell-off, I believe that those volumes at the top of the rejection were volumes of big institutional players (banks, hedge funds, pension funds, …). Those big guys always need a lot of time to accumulate their huge trading positions. When they are done with the accumulation, they usually start a really strong trend. Like in this case. Now, when the price makes it back into this area again, I believe that those institutions will still want to trade in this area – to defend it. So, when the price gets there again I believe they will start an aggressive selling activity with the intention of driving the price downwards again. That’s why I think this area around 1.2300 (that’s the Point Of Control of this area) will work as a really strong long-term resistance. This level is over 2 years old! Will it work??? I know you are going to say that you doubt this level will work, because it is over 2 years old and that those institutions won’t be there anymore. Every time I post such a long-term analysis I get such messages 🙂 What I have learned in my 12+ years trading career is that markets have excellent memory. No mater how old the level is, the markets know about it and it is very likely they will react to it. A discussion like this was there below a long-term EUR/USD prediction I made in 2018. Guess what? I made a +1.600 pip trade on 3 years old volume-based resistance (published on this website – from start to end)! One more proof of how good the market memory is! Supports on EUR/USD Currently, the EUR/USD is in a strong long-term uptrend. That’s why I started to look for some supports to trade longs from. What I always do is this: I use my Flexible Volume Profile indicator and I use it to look into the trend and also into the rotation that took place before the trend started. In this case, my Volume Profile showed two very significant places there. Those places were areas, where heavy volumes got accumulated. Support at 1.1300 The first significant area is a strong volume cluster created around 1.1300. The volumes we see there are in my opinion volumes of strong buyers who were adding massively to their longs there. From this place, they pushed the price even higher. What will happen when there is a pullback and the price makes it back to this 1.1300 area again? I think that those buyers will want to defend their long positions. They will want to push the price upwards again. So, they will start an aggressive buying activity (using Market orders). With this buying activity they will hope to start a snowball effect – more buyers would join in. This would drive the price upwards again. Support at 1.0870 Another significant support from the long-term point of view is around 1.0870. This one is based on a setup which I call the Volume Accumulation Setup. In this case, there were heavy volumes accumulated at the base of the current uptrend. My Volume Profile shows there was some serious trading activity taking place around the 1.0870 area. And what activity that might have been? Well, since the price shot from this area in a crazy strong uptrend I assume that those were strong institutional buyers entering their longs there. It took them some time to accumulate their massive trading positions, but after they had done so, they started aggressive buying to start the uptrend we see now. What is most likely happen when the price makes it back into this area at some point in the future (could be in months, or years even…)? I bet there will be another buying activity and another strong reaction from the big institutional buyers. This activity would push the price upwards again. That’s why I think the area around 1.0870 will work as a strong support. I hope you guys liked this long-term analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below! Happy trading! -Dale
by Trader_Dale
8