Intraday analysis of CHF/JPY 😷How to Use Order Flow on Forex
Today, I will do an intraday analysis of CHF/JPY. It will be a bit different this time because I will also use Order Flow.
Let’s first talk about what the Price Action and Volume Profile show.
There has been a strong downtrend since the beginning of this week. There haven’t been any major pullbacks and the price has been heading downwards steadily.
Volume Profile analysis
When there is a trend like this I like to use my Volume Profile to look in that trend area. What I look for are significant Volume Clusters (areas where heavy volumes were traded).
The reason CHF/JPY caught my eye today was because there are THREE Volume Clusters! Three very nicely visible and easy to identify heavy volume areas.
I believe that the volumes we see in those three areas were aggressive sellers, who were adding to their selling positions.
After each volume accumulation, those sellers pushed the price aggressively downwards – to make money on those positions they have entered in the Volume Cluster areas.
Those Volume Clusters now represent significant resistance zones. If there is no change in the market sentiment those zones should hold and reverse the price (when there is a pullback).
Logic behind Volume Clusters
The logic behind this is that the sellers who have entered their short positions in those Volume Clusters will want to defend their shorts. And if there is a pullback, then those guys are most likely to start selling and pushing the price downwards again. That’s why I think those three areas will work as resistances.
You can see all that in the screenshot below. It shows 30 Minute chart of CHF/JPY along with those three resistances
I hope you guys liked today’s analysis! Let me know what you think in the comments below!
Stay safe and happy trading!
-Dale
Majors
EURUSD strong sell-off ⏬Volume accumulation
What I always like to see is a price rotation which is followed by a trend. I call this the Volume Accumulation Setup.
First, volumes get accumulated in the rotation and then the big guys push the price into the trend to make money.
Why do volumes get accumulated in a rotation? Because the big guys can hide there. They don’t want to show their intentions. They want to enter their positions slowly and unnoticed.
Because of thie nice Volume accumulation i set my short level on 1.09020...
From this short level i expect down reaction..
This short level is confirmed by downtrend.
Happy trading
Dale
CAD/JPY: Volume Profile Analysis 📊 + Price action 📈Price Action Analysis
Today, I will do an intraday analysis of CAD/JPY.
What caught my eye when I went through the charts in the morning, was that there was a rotation from which strong buying activity started.
This usually means that there were buyers entering their long positions in that rotation. After they have entered their longs, they started aggressive buying to push the price upwards – to make money on the longs which they placed in the rotation.
I am always interested when I see Price Action like this.
Volume Profile Analysis
My next step was that I used my Flexible Volume Profile to look at how the volumes were distributed yesterday.
The heaviest volumes were in the rotation area, and the heaviest volume peak (where most of the trades got placed) was around 76.38.
This is where the buyers placed most of their longs. This is a support they will want to defend.
So, if the price makes a pullback to this area I think that those buyers will be defending their longs and they will start aggressive buying again to push the price upwards again.
Weekly POC
A nice addition to all that is that this support is also a Weekly POC (Point Of Control). This means that the heaviest volumes were traded at this price level this week!
Volume Cluster at 76.56
As the price was moving upwards, more buyers were jumping in to make money on that up-move.
Most of them jumped in around 76.56. You can see that on the Flexible Volume Profile – there is a significant volume cluster around the 76.56 area.
When the price makes it back to this area again, it is pretty likely that those buyers will want to defend their longs which they placed in that Volume Cluster (76.56 area).
In order to do that they will need to start buying again – aggressive buying! This should drive the price upwards again and this is what makes this level a strong support.
Resistance → Support
There is also one nice confluence to the Volume Cluster. If you look at the picture above, you can see that the 76.56 level also worked as a resistance in the past. The price got rejected there aggressively.
The price went through this resistance yesterday, and it turned into a support. This is an old but pretty effective Price Action setup which I really like to see in a combination with the Volume Cluster – like in this case.
I hope you guys liked today’s analysis! Let me know what you think in the comments below.
Stay safe and happy trading!
-Dale
USD/JPY Bilateral Triangle Pattern!Good Day :) Hope everybody is having a great trading week so far (That's if you've been following my analysis) wink*
Technical Analysis: USD/JPY
Bias: Neutral - On the 1Hour timeframe price action has created a descending triangle pattern. We do not have a clear bias at the moment, We will wait for price action to give us an indication by a break of either the resistance zone (Red Zone) or the support zone (Yellow Zone). Once price action breaks one of these technical zones we then look for an entry in that direction of the breakout.
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Trade safe & have a great trading week :)
Chart Of The Day: USD/JPYGood Day :) Hope everybody is having a great trading week so far (That's if you've been following my analysis) wink*
Technical Analysis: USD/JPY
Bias: Neutral - On the 1Hour timeframe price action has created a Descending Triangle pattern. We do not have a clear bias at the moment, We will wait for price action to give us an indication by a break of either the descending trendline (Solid Line) or the Support zone (Yellow). Once price action breaks one of these technical zones we then look for an entry in that direction of the breakout.
Please don't forget to leave your thoughts and comments and if you benefited in any way from this post please like & share.
Trade safe & have a great trading week :)
Chart of the Day: USD/JPYGood Day :) hope everybody is having a great trading week so far (That's if you've been following my analysis) wink*
I'll add the links below.
Technical Analysis: USD/JPY
Bias: Bullish - On the 1Hour timeframe price action has created an inverse head & shoulders patterns. which occurs after a downtrend and indicates a possibility of a high probability trend reversal to the upside.
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Trade safe & have a great trading week :)
EUR/USD Tanking!Hey everybody, hope you guys are all doing well :)
Chart of the day: EUR/USD
Bias: Downtrend - On the 1-hour timeframe price action has created a rising wedge pattern (Solid line) which indicates a possibility for a high probability trend continuation to the downside. We will wait for the break of the trendline to confirm a move to the downside.
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Trade safe & have a great trading week :)
GBPUSD Intraday Risk Bets PlanI feel like this pair has some room upward and I have checked it on multiple time frame where it's only pointing me out that there is still some room upward. I am well aware of this major pair broad picture and it's trying to shift trend on higher resolution from bullish to bearish (knowing the fact it's overall bearish trend for higher time frame due to some fundamental cases). Sometime things doesn't go straight forward and even if it had to fall in future days it will obviously fall but after hitting some key level at ceiling which is why i'm saying it might have some room upward.
EURUSD SHORT TRADEEURUSD is in downtrend in short term after forming sharp bullish wave
Price is below key level at 1.1217
Rejected from 50% Fibonacci level at 1.1209
Based below SMA 100
Below HVN at level 1.1318 which indicates that pair is in distribution phase
MACD shows weakness in bullish momentum
RSI rejected from resistance level
It's expected more selling to target demand zone at level 1.0850
EURUSD SHORT TRADESharp bullish wave ended at level 1.1490
after running more than 700 pips
Price rebounded by bearish movement in short term
and broke parabolic curve which pair was supported on it during last 2 weeks
MACD shows weakness in bullish momentum
RSI is below level 50
We r waiting price breaking support level at 1.1270 to open short trade, in that moment pair will be based below SMA 100
First target will be at key level near HVN at 1.1135
Second target will be at level 1.1053 which represents 61.8% Fibonacci level of sharp bullish wave
USDCHF LONG TRADESharp correction wave ended at level 0.9182
then price rebounded by bullish movement in the short term
Price broke downtrendline
Based above SMA 100 on H1 frame
MACD shows weakness in bearish momentum
RSI is above level 50
We r waiting for price exceeding resistance level at 0.9405 top open long trade
It's expected to target first key level at 0.9625
then continue going up towards supply zone near HVN at level 0.9776
GBPUSD LONG TRADEGBPUSD is based above key level at 1.2988
Price is supported above HVN at level 1.2997 which indicates that pair is in accumulation phase
Pair is above demand zone at 1.2960 which represents 50% Fibonacci level of preceding strong bullish wave
RSI is near oversold region
It's expected for coming bullish wave to target supply zone at level 1.3210
GBPUSD SHORT TRADEStrong bearish wave (A) ended at level 1.2718 after breaking key level at 1.2880
Then corrective bullish wave (B) is rejected from downtrendline and 61.8% Fibonacci level of preceding bearish wave (A) at level 1.2900
MACD shows weakness in bullish momentum
Price is based below HVN at level 1.2998 which indicates that pair is in distribution phase
RSI reached overbought region
It's expected for coming strong bearish wave (C) to target level 1.2650
EUR/USD: All Significant Supports EXPLAINEDThe EUR/USD is pushing upwards like crazy. It made over 400 pips just in eight days! An interesting thing is that there were eight consecutive bullish Daily candles (all green). Not a single pullback! This is a sign of strong and aggressive buyers. Even a blind person can see this.
How to trade in a trend
The main intraday trading strategy in such a situation is to wait for little pullbacks and enter long trades at supports.
In this article, I will focus mostly on those supports.
When there is an uptrend like now, it is best to use the Flexible Volume Profile to look into the volumes and how they were distributed throughout the uptrend.
What you are looking for are significant Volume Clusters. A Volume Cluster created within an uptrend tells you this: There were a lot of buyers adding to their buying positions there. Then they pushed the price even higher.
How does that help? When the price makes it back to a Volume Cluster then there is a solid chance that those buyers will become active again and that they will try and push the price upwards from this Volume Cluster.
The current situation on the EUR/USD
Let’s now have a look at the EUR/USD and examine all the Volume
Clusters one by one. Below, you can see a 30 Minute chart of the EUR/USD
with all significant Volume Clusters numbered #1 to #4.
#1 Volume Cluster
This one was created close to the beginning of the new strong buying activity. What i like about this one is that the volumes are distributed in a way that there is no doubt where the support is (Volume Cluster is nicely visible and “sharp” looking).
#2 Volume Cluster
This one is a bit weird one. There was a bit of sideways price action and then the price shot upwards. What happened an hour later was that there was a little pullback. This pullback went almost into the Volume Cluster zone.
Now it seems that those volumes have already been tested by this (support is no longer valid). Maybe it will still work but it would be the 2nd test and 2nd tests don’t have as good win rate as the 1st tests.
#3 Volume Cluster
I liked this one and I was looking forward to trading it. However, the price went quite close to it and then made a strong buying reaction. It seems that this support is also spent (tested).
My general rule is that a level is tested if price turns 3 pips or closer before reaching it. In this case, it was a bit more than 3 pips but given the higher volatility we see on EUR/USD now I rather discard this level because to me it just looks already tested.
#4 Volume Cluster
This one is already spent. The price made a nice pullback to it, and there was a 30 pip reaction. This support is no longer valid because the price has already reacted to it.
I hope you guys liked this Volume Cluster analysis. Let me know what you think in the comments below!
Happy trading!
-Dale
NZDUSD LONG TRADENZDUSD rebounded from strong demand zone on H4 frame at level 0.6195
Price broke downtrendline
Pair is supported above SMA 100
MACD shows start of bullish momentum
It's expected for coming bullish wave to target first key level at 0.6378
then target supply zone near HVN at level 0.6462
GBPUSD SHORT TRADEStrong bearish bearish wave (A) occurred after breaking key level at 1.2852
then corrective bullish wave (B) retested key level and rejected by strong bearish engulfing pattern
Price is below SMA 100
Pair is below HVN at level 1.2930 which indicates that gbpusd is in distribution phase
MACD shows weakness in bullish momentum
It's expected for coming strong bearish wave (C) to target level 1.2500