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GBPJPY : Anticipating two movesThe projected monthly range low had been exceeded. My belief in the market is that price should "normalize" and goes back inside the range (Banks profit taking). The monthly range has been hit and exceeded and also the weekly range was hit (set default bias = retracement/reversal bias). Currently, I am setting a bullish bias for this pair and it will remain true until bearish confirmation pattern triggers. Due to this, I am anticipating two scenarios Scenario A : Price I would to execute my current Bullish bias @ 140.750-140.800 (the lower the better, cheaper price). A Double bottom, engulfing candle, piercing candle etc will be the entry signal. Target is as illustrated on the chart Scenario B : A failure at 141.00-141.100 confirmed by a double top/engulfing candle, piercing candle at M15 (always look at H4 as well). Target illustrated on the chart. *Trade Setup should satisfy a minimum 2:1 Reward Risk Ratio. *Risk 1.5% Per Trade, 4.5% Maximum for the entire day (multiple trades at a time) If you like my writeup, idea, my chart or even curious if the trade idea completes, then give me a follow. Thank you for reading and following
by sufiansaid
Please BEAR with me : Canada's Inflation and NAFTA dealMy trading belief is that when the price hits the certain range (USDCAD Avg Monthly Range = 300+ish pips), by default it should reverse minimum 60% of the recent move (some of you call it "a retracement") if not the entire move. Candle patterns that I look for in a way to confirm a reversal/retracement is on its way is Piercing Candles or Engulfing Candles. One of the rules I set is that the retracement/reversal bias upon hitting the trading range (in this case, Avg Monthly Range) remain true (the original upside target marked by the red 'X' on the chart) UNTIL one of these candles occurred to invalidate the bias (i.e a bullish retracement bias will be invalidated by a bearish engulfing/piercing candle) The bearish engulfing candle occurred due to the Canadian inflation numbers. If the inflation numbers are that high, the expectation for the Bank of Canada to hike interest rate in September might as well be increased. Moreover, I've read news that the NAFTA deal can be sealed sometime this month which adds more reason to set the Canadian Loonie bias from Bearish to Bullish (BEARISH USDCAD)
Short
by sufiansaid
The EURUSD "over-extended" AugustI have said it several times I remain an EURUSD Bearish bias - long-term - due to the monetary policies divergence, on top of the fact that market unlikely have fully priced it in (hence there could be more move to the downside). To the shorter term however, I am pretty much Bullish bias because of the following : 1) EURUSD has had a strong sell-off in which it reached the average monthly range and exceeded it roughly by 50%. The market belief that I have (among others) is when a trading range for a particular timeframe has been exceeded, it has a high probability of the price to "take a break" (moving sideways without a definite trend in relation to the timeframe you are looking) before continuing it's trend or retraces/reverses. 2) In H4, my personal trend identifier have turned into bullish (not specified nor illustrated in the chart) and the weekly range High suits the minimum size that qualifies as a retracement leg 3) No risk event moves (economic data) that potentially could affect the Euros and Dollar today, so technical moves can be expected (i.e buying/selling at significant levels, profit taking, its Friday) How will I determine my entry? : When any of these three levels (marked with a circle I have drawn) are tested and the reaction following to that are W patterns or Bullish Engulfing candle target : Today's projected daily range High though I won't be surprised if the weekly range high could be reached today, but I won't hold my breath Setups other than this (that is not even near to my setup), will be ignored. Give me a follow if you like the writeup.
Long
by sufiansaid
Anticipating two moves for EURUSD todayQuick Recap on my yesterday's trade and price action up until now Yesterday my intraday bias was EURUSD = Up. Reason? : 1. Price last week have hit Weekly and Monthly Range 2. Price is trading below this levels hence its on price levels that I like to call "a hot zone". Its not a certainty but it has high probability the price would reverse/retrace/move sideways because you cannot keep buying the dollar (when you short EURUSD, you are buying the dollar with Euros) a currency forever without selling it back and putting it back into the "inventory" 3. Price tested levels that I thought at the time a very significant level 1.3200 (My entry and Stoploss are market with Pink arrows/Pink Lines. My TP was the projected daily range high) 4. Price hit my stoploss and went further down to 1.13100 - 1.13000. 5. Price then shoots up in mid speed and hit my intended target (market pays back what it owes //*Range miss one of the projected range high or low, very often the price hits the projected range high or low in the following days. In this case, it pays back before the London opens) My Trading Plan Scenario A (Look at blue arrows) : Price stops where it is right now (exceeding the average Asian Session range) and retraces back inside the range. During London opens, I will look for patterns that signals price could go up (W pattern, Bullish engulfing candle, Doji followed by bullish candle. But a W pattern (doesn't need to be all perfect) (LONG) Scenario B (Look at red arrows) : Price continues and hit either of those two levels. From then on, I will look for a retracement trade. A double top or a quick inverted V (bearish engulfing candle) at those price levels (SHORT) Note : Long term I am still (BEARISH EURUSD) the EURUSD due to Federal Reserves & ECB's monetary policies (divergent) If you like my writeup follow me here or DM me for any questions. Thanks
by sufiansaid
8
EURUSD = what I am anticipating right now (not predicting)This is a continuation of the earlier trading plan. Refer this trading plan for context : If the price could go down and test 1.13600 again and the market shows its hand (in a form of a W pattern or bullish engulfing candle), I will long EURUSD. If you like this write-up (albeit pretty short!), give me a Follow and Message me for any discussion you would like relevant to what we are doing here : Trading. Later guys and Thank you for reading
Long
by sufiansaid
Daily Range - EURUSD exampleSome of the typical occurances in the day week in week out. Here's what needs to be taken note : 1. Price hit the range has high probability for the price to reverse or move sideways (especially after London closes) 2. If price hit the range, sometimes it is followed by a "final" push (breaking the range) before a reversal happens. Some like to call it Market Maker manipulating the market or stoploss hunt or the usual "fake breakout" 3. If price exceeds the range by significant amount, most likely the following day its gonna be a quiet market (paying the market in advance). 4. Price exceeding the range more often than not a result of price not hitting the range by significant amount in the last 2-3 days (paying back the market) This is NOT a trading strategy, just another analysis tool like you would in analysing Support and Resistance or Supply and Demand. If you like the writeup, give me a follow, find me at youtube 'Sufian FX Trading", reach me at twitter sufian_fx for discussion or questions. Thanks
Education
by sufiansaid
Shorting EURUSD Trading IdeaFundamental analysis wise, there is an obvious monetary divergence between the Feds and the ECB. One central bank wants to hike rates few more this year (Feds), one central bank wants to keep the policy loose with continuing the QE. Sentiment from yesterday was Euro bid after consecutive days of heavy selling of the Euros. The bigger picture I still see Dollar is king across the board, any uptrend move for EURUSD today or the rest of the week is just profit taking from the banks after days of Shorting the EURUSD.
Short
by sufiansaid
Anticipating Rebound for TMTM stock has been tumbling since the beginning of the year due to facing some stiff competition with local internet service provider. It has at least bottomed at RM 3.010 level at the end of June. It however has been rallying since then, touching RM 4.005 level two times, the level which was considered as the previous swing high. Now it has potential to form an inverted head and shoulder pattern, with potential right shoulder being formed at around RM 3.600. If this is the case, it would be a buying opportunity upon breakout of the neckline. It is also interesting to see how market reacts at RM 3.600 level. So a reversal pattern at this level may confirm the reversal of trend will be inevitable.
MYX:TMLong
by nivelij01
The Chinese Breakdown appears to be acceleratingThe breakdown in my China/Asia custom index appears to be accelerating downward. I called this move over 4 months ago as I saw economic issues playing out in China that could be dangerous. With Malaysia's new PM, Mahathir, pushing to expose corruption and graft from locals and Chinese investment firms, I expect continue news to POUND China over the next 12+ months. I expect Mahathir to be ruthless in terms of who and what is exposed as well as the criminal process involved. Honestly, I believe Malaysia could actually HANG people because of this as an act of Treason against the Malaysian people. Don't try to bottom pick this move. This could be the unraveling of the Chinese Ponzi scheme and you don't want to be anywhere near this when it fully implodes.
INDEX:000002Short
by BradMatheny
CAB (7174) - Possible bottom formationCAB is looking good with possibility of bottom formation. By looking at chart, CAB is creating higher low and higher high with good volume, which means it has a good momentum. CAB also breakout from down-trend line with high volume. The indicators and oscillators are showing bullish signs. Next resistance is RM 1.00. Breakout above RM 1.00 with high volume will see it goes to next resistance level at RM 1.10. Breakout above RM 1.10 will make this counter into bullish mode. This counter is currently lagging behind CCK and QL. *All views here are for learning purposes only, not a recommendation to buy or sell any stock.
MYX:CABLong
by ZuhairiAzman
Stock Review : TRC SYNERGY BHDTechnical analysis: Buy position price above 0.71. Target 0.845 (+15.97%). Stop at 0.65 (-5.63%). Reason : rejection at support area. Possible to boost up the price of share. Fundamental Analysis: TRC annual report show that an increase in other investments from RM 28,004,203 to RM 29,193,952 in next year. This is due to increase investment in partnership RM 1,189,749 in year 2016. Asset turnover 0.93 > 1. Not exceed 1, but still in good prospect. Receivables drop 13.8% from last year it show efficiency on debt collection. Loans drop 75.5% . Payables increase 14.5% not good in payable management. Acquisition of subsidiary company that have good financial as backup. Last year, increased +72.75% after. the acquisition date. GPM +0.9% NPM -0.32% 2017 Dividend RM5.40 very good company performance.
MYX:TRCLong
by adibazid
STOCK REVIEW : BOILERMECH HOLDINGS BHD (0168)Based on OUR analysis it's time to make decision for BOILERMECH HOLDINGS (0168) TECHNICAL ANALYSIS : Based on current price 0.770 it will continue on bearish on support zone (S1), if they break the zone which is 0.755, it means they want to find the strong support (S2) 0.730. And do the rejection to find the nearest ressistance (R1) at price 0.910. Probability do rejection? YES, they will do retracement at Fibo Level 0.38 (FB1:0.820), going short a little until level 0.12 (0.775) and then it will continue bullish mood also find the nearest resistance R1. Wait for next confirmation after they break R1 it will continuously on bullish mood. Possibilty find the next resisitance R2. But must see the MA to know the trend continue long or short trend WHAT IF they break second zone of support R2? In my honest opinion, it show that performance of this company will confront bad either financial or management in this year. FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS : Current Div Yield 1.90 > Ave. Div Yield 1.55 It show that this stock is UNDERVALUED, very good reason to buy it know. Based on Financial Position FTYE17 Asset, the trade receivables is reduces amount RM40,010,389. It's a GOOD sign, because debt collector that manage properly. Inventories reduce RM2,712705 (-8.51%), NOT GOOD because it show less WIP in this year. Trade payables reduce RM12,691,183 (-31.4%), GOOD sign, less do payables and good payment on time in previous year. Tax Liabilities reduce RM 56,090 (-95.8%) VERY GOOD. It shows this company pay tax properly in this year eventhough it's not quite good year in current econony situation. This stock will be potential in 2018. It is just on paper, but not reality, it based on current economy and company performance decisions. Analysis from our team, Ghibli & Co. Hedge Fund Capital in Kuala Lumpur. Any inquiries about investment/analysis please contact us ghiblico.my@gmail.com
MYX:BMGREENLong
by adibazid
POTENTIAL BUY FIAMMA HOLDINGSEventhough this stock is Overvalue. But considering with current economy situation in Malaysia, they still can give 1.75 cent dividend. I'm in. Fiamma's management has done a good job so far and they look capable of steering the company through these volatile times. This year, where JV property project by this company to develop residential properties in Batu Pahat, Johor that have a potential gross development value (GDV) of RM26 million. It will effect the stock price. Technical Analysis: We can see potential buy back stock at this point. Strong Support line (Yellow Line) at price 0.495. If they break the support zone (Blue area) means that they'll continue in bearish mood. But if do the rejection at this point, possible to bounce back to strong resistance price 0.62 (78.6% Retracement).
MYX:FIAMMALong
by adibazid
Time to rejoice for Malaysian across the border?Malaysia raises key rate for the first time since 2014. Coupled with a hawkish tone from Bank Negara Malaysia, we are likely to see the Malaysia Ringgit continue strengthening against the Singapore Dollar. Price has broken the inner trend line structure at 3.0759 late 2017. This opens up more downside potential for SGD/MYR. However, we are seeing a 5-wave structure completed at 2.9936, as the larger degree wave 3. This give us the expectation that we might see a retracement towards 3.0166 - 3.0441 before another move lower towards 2.9384. For Singaporeans, this may be a good time to cross the border and stock up during the 1H of 2018. For investors, it would also be wise to look into the Malaysia stock market, riding not only the capital gains from the stock market but from the foreign exchange rate too! For Malaysian, well.... it will still be relative expensive to shop in SG anyway! LOL
Short
by KarYong