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Retracement Trade EURUSDWhen there is no clear sentiment/fundamental move that I could trade off, trade based on different kind of fundamentals = "To make money, what had been bought, it needs to sold". Wednesdays or Thursdays always the time when the market ended their accumulation phase and start a new trend OR taking profit after several days of buying (in this case buying the Euros, now it needs to sell those by buying Dollar against it) I could still see price could make another push towards 1.8600, when that happens, my conviction for a "retracement trade" increased. At the moment I see potential double top in this session, it could be a signal of the market can start profit taking OR start a new trend (if Monday's and Tuesday's move were just a case accumulating enough EURUSD buyers for them to trade against today...)
Short
by sufiansaid
Long USDCAD Trading PlanUSD Bullish Rationale : 1. Optimism tax reform bill 2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment 3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar CAD Bearish Rationale : 1. I am expecting the effect of Dovish CAD is not in the price yet hence plenty more to the downside for CAD Factors could invalidate the trading plan : 1. Any positive development in the oil market (Oil Rally is generally supportive to the CAD) 2. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Building Permit numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 1.7%, Prior : 3.8%) - Predicted Surprise : 1.60% (Reuters Poll) 3. CAD - Positive (Actual > Expected) Ivey PMI numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 62.7, Prior : 63.8) 4. USD - Negative (Actual > Expected) Initial Job Claims Numbers with massive deviation (Expected : 240k, Prior : 238k) - Reuters SmartEstimate (C) : 237.4k Levels to trade : A : If price breaks and close above 128.100, I will Long the pair as long as I have the minimum 2:1 reward/risk ratio. The target price rationale are : a) it is within the average daily range b) psychological level (i.e 00s) c) B : I will not rule out a correction towards the daily pivot. In the event of this happening, I will look for technical reason to Long this pair. The target price rationale are : it is within the average daily range b) It is potentially today's high
Long
by sufiansaid
Short GBPUSD Trading IdeaUSD Bullish Rationale : 1. Optimism tax reform bill 2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment 3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar GBP Bearish Rationale : 1. Continued uncertainty and MESS over the brexit divorce deal 2. Another mess over the Irish border 3. Lack of tier-1 event to help boost the Sterling today Factors could invalidate the trading plan : 1. Positive development on the brexit divorce deal 2. Any geopolitical issues comes up such as the North Korean missile stuff etc etc Levels to trade : A. I would prefer if the price make another test on today's daily pivot. I will seek reversal signals or structural break and short the pair from here. The rationale of the target price (TP) is a) within the average daily range b) It has been tested and respected before c) Missed Pivot B. In the event where price could pierce through the daily pivot, this level is where I would find technical reasons to short the pair such as reversal candlestick and/or structural break and/or the old fashion (but still effective if used properly : Moving Average crossover!). The rationale of the target price (TP) is a) within the average daily range b) It's potentially today's low
Short
by sufiansaid
USDCAD Bank Of Canada Rate - REVIEWSo BOC, despite of the positive economic data past few months, remained "cautious" about them stepping off the gas even further (aka raising interest rates). It took me several seconds to speed read the statement, digest it, intepret it and make an actionable plan based on that information. At the time, I thought it was pretty dovish, not VERY dovish.. but dovish enough. I looked at the chart price have moved considerably high as well, but based on my research events like this tend to hit 100-120 pips. So i took a "scalping" trade and made a target at 1.2800. I made 2% from this trade. *I apologize for the written mistakes I made in my CAD trading plans.
by sufiansaid
2
GBPJPY Trading Plans I am still banking on market's risk averse tone towards the U.K due to the Brexit divorce bill & Irish Border issue. I am not sure if the news of multiple attempts on UK PM May's life will weigh down the sterling but the Asian Equities market have been risk averse so far today (it it UK PM May's assasination attempt story or Trump's upcoming announcement of Jerusalem recognition as Israel's capital - risking wrath from several parties.. or a bit of both?), but the uncertaintly over the first issue is enough for me to be bearish bias on the sterling today. Poor Service PMI numbers yesterday on the economic data perspective, added to my conviction. A.1 and A.2 : are the two targets that I am looking the price to test before looking in if my technical parameters are triggered and grant me short the pair towards 150.00. B : If price breaks the A.1/A.2 levels, I would have to re-assess the market's mood at that time if the move was was due to bullish catalyst a bullish Sterling (I will explain it below at "Risks for the trade"). If I couldn't find anything, I will be looking to short from that level and target would be dependent on price strutures at the time. I always look for a trade setup that is minimum 2:1 C : If you deal with this pair, a correction/retracement sometimes hard to come by. If theres any pair that gives you the FOMO effect (Fear of Missing Out), its this pair! If the pair continues to come down and breaks 150.400, I am anticipating it will be halted at 150.00 or the missed pivot levels below that. I would be an observer if the price breaks 150.400. I hate to chase price. The only way I would think of shorting the pair is if it makes a correction/retracement towards A.1 and/or A.2.. but most probably, id make new plans by then.
Short
by sufiansaid
Trading Plan GBPJPY - Brexit No Deal Aftermath TradeThe rationale for this trade is pretty straightforward : The headline of no deal was made yesterday and more political uncertainty surrounding the United Kingdom. No monetary policy issues is in focus right now to help the sterling at the moment as well (today). Equities market in Asian session is a bit in a selloff (Risk Off Tone) gives slight safe haven inflow (Yen Demand). Risk for the trade (yes there's always risk. I have no crystal ball as others as well.. so stupid saying "it will this.. it will that.. it will go up.. it will go down.. very bad mindset to have as a trader") 1. New development on the brexit deal 2. Yen sell-off from a Risk-ON (whatever cause it might be)
Short
by sufiansaid
EURUSD Gap-Filling Rally (Long)Actually there are no clear theme/sentiment today (no fresh news on Eurozone side i.e German Coalition, Monetary Policy worries or confidence, anything on QE?, anything on inflation, U.S Tax Reform mania have faded.. what now?) so I go back to the "bigger picture" right now : 1. Eurozone is in economic growth (bullish for EUR) 2. They tapered the QE and thats an outlook for future tightening (mildly bullish for EUR) 3. Market have fully priced in for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rate in December, so they yet to see fresh news on will the Fed raise further rates in 2018. At the time being, dollar is "neutral" today (mildly bearish for USD) Technically, weekend gaps always gets filled eventually. Technical USD selling could push EURUSD into the weekend gap.
Long
by sufiansaid
Trading Plan GBPJPY 4 Dec 2017 - REVIEWReference : A : I made a call that if a report comes out that says a deal have been made or any sort of progress, then Sterling was a currency I would buy against the Yen. I made a intraday target around 152.996 (it's 153.00 really..) B : Report came out that a good progress was made and the Sterling rallied. ( www.forexlive.com ). GBPJPY barely tested the levels I marked earlier that day. I WAS NOT IN THIS TRADE as when it happened I was out cleaning the kitty litter (TMI?) and when I went back at my trading desk, GBPJPY have reached just few pips under 152.996 (153!) which happens to be the pair's year high (I didnt get that when i was making the trading plan... NOOB!) C: The deal apparently wasn't strucked ( www.forexlive.com ) . Down she goes... Whats next? : I am still intrigued with this story and still looking to trade this pair (or any Sterling pairs) should there be development on the Brexit talk (with EU and Northern Ireland)
by sufiansaid
Short EURUSD Trading IdeasThe tax reform potentially will be the major theme for the dollar today. Even if price goes all the way to Friday's high, I will see that as technical correction before investors buying the dollar again. A break beyond that will invalidate my trading plans. The rationale for "bearish" the Euro today is the lack of fresh news/catalyst for the Euro currency. Risk for this trading plan : 1. A development on the Flynn vs Trump saga (eventhough it has been established that is is indeed "fake news") 2. A development on anything that negates the positivity of the recently passed Tax Reform 3. Trumps crazy tweets! 4. Anything significant from the Eurogroup Meetings
Short
by sufiansaid
GBPJPY Trading PlansRationale to trading plan (Long GBPJPY one) : 1. There was a news release that claim UK and EU have struck a Brexit Divorce deal which will be confirmed next Monday. UK officials denied this however but further reports after that "reconfirm" about the divorce deal 2. Equities Market have been up, signal potential Risk-On (hence Yen will be less demanded) *The Short GBPJPY Plan is a technical rationale. The idea is price is going back to Demand level around 147.00 (which potentially a good price to buy Sterling against Yen) Risk to the trading plan : 1. News that confirms that there was no brexit deal have been secured, which will shift market's mood from positive into uncertain 2. Escalated North Korea missile test issue which will potentially shift market's mood from greedy into fearful (Safe Haven - Yen Demand)
by sufiansaid
Long USDJPY Trading PlanRationale for the plan : 1. 'Hawkish' statement from Powell 2. Equity markets as of now is positive. Potential Risk-On mode today. 3. Technical Sentiment is bullish USDJPY as price making higher-highs /lower lows since testing 110.900 handle R isks for the plan (that could invalidate the plan) : 1. Poor U.S Prelim GDP numbers later (Forecast 3.3%, Previous 3.0%). 2. Escalation of North Korea Missile test issues, which would potentially shift the market into risk-averse (Safe Haven flow - Yen will strengthened) 3. Any negative language came out from tax reform news
Long
by sufiansaid
Short EURUSD Trading PlanRationale to short EURUSD : 1. Market pricing in the positive progression on German politics (coalition), lack of fresh news coming out of it, I am neutral on Euros right now (but keep my eyes peeled for the German CPI) 2. The "hawkish" statements by Powell, it should make the dollar supported for the day at least. 3. Technically, EURUSD making a lower-low price structure, so technical sentiment for me aligns with the fundamental sentiment today. RISKS for this plan (which could invalidate the plan) 1. Germany Prelim CPI numbers is stronger than expected (Forecast : 0.3%, previous 0.0%). Even if the number 0.1% (more than previous), it could move the Euros upwards. 2. Any negative language came out from tax reform news 3. OPEC meeting today. USD can be pressured if oil price rallying (ripple effect from USDCAD) 4. and sooo many things we could never foresee...
Short
by sufiansaid
2