Malaysia
EURUSD trading plans for MondayBy default I am bullish the Euro as economic data shows growth/positive in the past weeks and positive development on the German political issues (Merkel and co). I am somewhat Bearish on the USD with bets that investors still thinking off the inflation worries stated in FOMC meeting, the tax reform uncertainty. Though this is at least for Monday as plenty of U.S related risk events and data coming this week (Prelim GDP, FOMC members speaking)
Brent OIL - The fundamentals..With the fundamentals looking bullish, I am looking at a price rally reaching $70.00 by the end of Q1 2018 or mid Q1 2018
Shorting GBPJPY Trading PlanRationale to be bearish GBP :
1. This is short term trade (at least that is my plan), news feed suggest that market shift their attention to Brexit (UK PM May meeting in Brussels on Friday), so until a confirmation, there is uncertainty and that usually pressures the Sterling. Plus this is a range dip trade
Rationale to be bullish Yen :
1. Currency correlation. USD seems to be weak as well as GBP. It won't make sense to trade GBPUSD at this point. Yen seems to strengthened when both Sterling and Dollar weak
2. Equities market is a bit down now, usually signals least greedy market (risk on)
EURUSD - Trading planI am not exactly bullish on the dollar with issues that US Special Counsel Mueller has issued a Subpoena for Russia-related documents (lead to potential risk-off sentiment / bearish USD). But there is also a fresh bearish driver for the euro (and the market seems react that way.. so far anyway)
Rational for bearish EUR :
Germany coalition talk over the weekend. Failure to agree could lead to new elections. Wolfgang Kubicki, a member of parliament and deputy leader of the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) said the deadline for decision is on Sunday 6pm (before asian open kah tu?).. and he said kalua nada progress.. “talk will be dead” (no signs of agreement will potentially effect bearish EUR) *potential political concerns
Short EURAUD Trading IdeaRationale for Bullish AUD :
1. Hawkish comment by RBA's Lowe yesterday, stating that change of rates in the future will be likely raising rates instead of cutting it
Rationale for Bearish EUR :
1. Germany coalition talk over the weekend. Failure to agree could lead to new elections. Political uncertainty
Shorting EURGBP Trading IdeaRationale to be bearish EUR :
1. I still expect the Germany Coalition political issue going to weigh down the currency today.
Rationale to be bullish GBP :
1. Good news on the Brexit deal
*For more details on my rationale, checkout my trading plan for EURJPY, EURUSD, GBPAUD
Long GBPJPY Trading IdeaRationale for bullish GBP :
1. Market took the latest development on Brexit divorce bill as positive. UK Fin Minister Hammond was confident of a deal will be strucked before EU Summit in December
Rationale for bearish YEN :
1. Potential Risk-On sentiment (Equities market Europe closed with all green yesterday and Asian Equities market now is Up)
2. Not to mention BOE is so deep in QE and happily so...
Long : GBPAUD trading ideaRationale to be Bearish AUD :
1. Dovish undertone of the recent released RBA monetary minutes (you can also check my AUDJPY trading plan, detailed rationale why I am bearish AUD). SO this minute strengthenes my personal conviction AUD is Bearish
Rational to be bullish GBP :
1. Apart from the economic data (bullish for GBP), there some positive news regarding the BRexit negotiation. UK Fin Minister Hammon was very optimistic. The market (the banks particularly) liked it apparently.
Short AUDJPY Trading PlanRationale of Bearish AUD :
1. Last week, the risk-off sentiment did not help Aussie one bit (During risk off mode, AUDJPY always trading heavy : bearish). If the risk-off continues, I am expecting atleast a choppy AUD move on Monday, if not continuously pressured due to the next point – (bearish AUD)
2. RBA meeting 7th November 2017 was deemed as Dovish by the market, AUD have been pressured ever since. Ada second release on the meeting minute, usually doesn’t tell us anything new (bearish AUD)
3. No Chinese economic data as well this week (what?!)
4. Lack of significant economic data and fundamental drivers this upcoming week (potentially bearish AUD)
5. Gold have rallied this December but somehow last two weeks correlation a bit off (Gold up = AUDUSD up). My best guess of this "mis"-correlation of the Gold rally is a safe haven move) instead of anything else. (-)
6. Wages number is less than positive (bearish AUD)
7. Yield apparently down for Aussie 10-yr bond (bearish AUD)
Rationale of Bullish Yen :
1. Risk Off Sentiment Safe haven play, SUPER loose monetary policy
NZD JPY - Trading IdeaRationale to be bearish the NZD :
1. The ANZ-Roy Morgan consumer confidence index eased to 123.7 from 126.3 in the previous month. A reading above 100 shows optimism, while a level below that indicates pessimism. (bearish NZD)
2. The Bank of New Zealand-PMI (PMI) fell 0.4 points from the previous month to 57.2 (bearish NZD)
3. Concerns over the policies dari govt New Zealand bary yg banyak kan buat reform to RBNZ (bearish NZD)
Rationale to be bullish YEN
1. Risk Off, Safe Haven
Shorting GBPJPY - Trading IdeaRationale to be bearish GBP :
1. Ongoing uncertainty on UK and EU over the brexit divorce bill – (bearish GBP)**major concern for the market
Rationale to be bullish YEN :
1. Risk off sentiment, safe haven
Shorting EURJPY - Trading IdeaRationale for EUR bearish :
1. Germany coalition talk over the weekend. Failure to agree could lead to new elections. Wolfgang Kubicki, a member of parliament and deputy leader of the liberal Free Democrats (FDP) said the deadline for decision is on Sunday 6pm (before asian open kah tu?).. and he said kalua nada progress.. “talk will be dead” (no signs of agreement will potentially effect bearish EUR) *potential political concerns
Rationale for JPY bullish :
1. Risk off sentiment. Safe Haven
USDMYR - Malaysia Ringgit Strengthening Ringgit is strengthening, probably due to rising oil price and institutional position.
If 4.18 support does not hold, likely fall to at least to 4.15
USDMYR - Break 4.18 or retest 4.3?Key Support: 4.18
Previous High: 4.30
RSI: Oversold
Break down or test 4.30 again?
SGD/MYR Outlook IW22 (30/05/2017)Deciding moment for this pair now,
Shall it hold at this level, it will rebound up back to above 3.1xx level
Shall it break, it will fall back to below 2.9xx level
USD/MYR Malaysia Daily Update (11 Nov 2016)It just broke 4.46x main region with STRONG momentum. (Breaking wall with Bulldozer)
Once it is broken strongly UP.. More UPside ahead for this pair..
IMO, Malaysia economy is free fall with bad policy and with the depressed oil price.
Trade Safe,
s0nic
Bursa Malaysia KLCI Index just one big pullbackMore like the peak in the index is behind. At moment, sideway ranging situation below previous support an act of distribution. Despite gains in other global indices (for example, new high DJ30), KLCI still in the red year-to-date.
USDMYR: Price to reach 200 EMA. expecting rebounceUSDMYR: Price to reach 200 EMA. expecting rebounce. Stop loss is at ATR
Ringgit is still pricing for further decline This level held pretty well in a triangle since I last posted about SGDRMY, it does look like we are about to see a much higher SGDRMY rates at a projected range of 3.25 - 3.29 .
USDMYR: Incomplete head and shoulders formingAnalisa forecast ambe untuk USDMYR, matawang negara sendiri. Ringgit boleh jatuh dari 3.25 kepada 3.73 dalam masa 160 hari. Ambe forecast ringgit akan ke harga 3.25 semula dalam masa lebih kurang 110 hari lagi (September 2015) insyaallah. Sama-sama doakan untuk ringgit yang lebih bernilai, dijauhi dari malapetaka dan dikurniakan kestabilan. Buat masa sekarang harga dijangkan akan menuju ke Right Shoulder dan dijangka pergerakan menurun akan bermula dari situ (ditanda dengan garisan hitam, Bearish Wolfe Wave juga terbentuk disitu).
