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GBP/USD - Another strong week for the British poundThe British pound is poised to post its fifth successive winning week. During this time, the GBP/USD has sparkled, rallying almost 500 points. This week's UK releases have not been as positive as the pound's upswing. GDP was flat in February on a monthly basis, down from 0.4% in January and unable to hit the estimate of 0.1%. Manufacturing Production was also flat and Industrial Production came in at -0.2%. Inflation remains in double digits, despite the Bank of England's aggressive rate policy, which has raised the benchmark cash rate to 4.25%. The combination of high inflation and rising interest rates has created a cost-of-living crisis and is weighing on businesses as well. To make things even worse, the country has been hit by widespread strikes in the public sector, as workers protest the drop in real income due to soaring inflation. An IMF forecast released this week indicated that the UK economy is projected to be the worst performer in the G20, which includes Russia. The economic situation isn't pretty, and the government and the BoE are under strong pressure to right the ship, and fast. Finance Minister Hunt has said he'll cut inflation in half and a recession can be avoided, but it's hard to share his optimism. This week pointed to further deceleration in inflation levels in the US. Headline CPI fell to 5.9%, down from 5.0%, although the core rate nudged up to 5.6%, up from 5.5%. The Producer Price Index declined to 2.7%, down sharply from 3.4%, and the core rate eased to 3.4%, down from 4.8%. Will the drop in inflation be accompanied by a decline in consumer spending? The markets are bracing for a soft retail sales report for March. Headline retail sales is expected to fall by 0.4% y/y and the core rate is projected to decline by 0.3% y/y.  A weak release could push the US dollar lower, as there will be more pressure on the Fed to consider pausing its rate hikes at the May meeting. GBP/USD touched resistance at 1.2537 earlier. The next resistance line is 1.2656 There is support at 1.2405 and 1.2282
by OANDA
Nike Inc. (NKE) bullish scenario:The technical figure Falling Wedge can be found in the daily chart in the US company Nike Inc. (NKE). Nike Inc. is an American multinational corporation that is engaged in the design, development, manufacturing, and worldwide marketing and sales of footwear, apparel, equipment, accessories, and services It is the world's largest supplier of athletic shoes and apparel and a major manufacturer of sports equipment, with revenue in excess of US$46 billion in its fiscal year 2022. The Falling Wedge broke through the resistance line on 17/03/2023. If the price holds above this level, you can have a possible bullish price movement with a forecast for the next 6 days towards 123.99 USD. According to experts, your stop-loss order should be placed at 115.87 USD if you decide to enter this position. Nike is expected to report a rise in third-quarter revenue and grow its market share through 2023, helped by major rival Adidas' split with designer and rapper Kanye West which caused the German company to lose about $600 million in quarterly sales. Nike is also expected to get a boost from higher sales of its Jordan Retros and some newer launches as the world's No. 1 sportswear maker stays ahead of rivals through its innovative product lines. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals and cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
NYSE:NKELong
by legacyFXofficial
tsla longs fighting uphill battlebulls are in control of this move but lack the follow through necessary to make a convincing move to the upside look like a change of weekly momentum. weve made a daily bounce that retraced enough to say a lower low is set, but havent made a higher low or confirmed the move with a trip above the last bearflag area/value area high. weve also started forming a topping out proccess 4hr as indices futures fail to climb over a top like 4037 es1!, and this has happened every leg of the way fown for stocks making me think we need to at least revisit the dotted line, and if we break through it id look for the lower horizontal. if we support in the mid range and move higher, especially if indices are breaking out with multiple sectors green, or if we get immediate continuation id still be long.
NASDAQ:TSLAShort
by cerealpatterns
1
Sanofi S.A. (SAN.pa) bearish scenario:The technical figure Channel Up can be found in the daily chart in the French company Sanofi S.A. (SAN.pa). Sanofi S.A. is a French multinational pharmaceutical and healthcare company. Sanofi engages in the research and development, manufacturing and marketing of pharmacological products, principally in the prescription market, but the firm also develops over-the-counter medications. The corporation covers seven major therapeutic areas: cardiovascular, central nervous system, diabetes, internal medicine, oncology, thrombosis, and vaccines (it is the world's largest producer of the last through its subsidiary Sanofi Pasteur). The Channel Up broke through the support line on 24/01/2023. If the price holds below this level, you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 26 days towards 86.54 EUR. According to experts, your stop-loss order should be placed at 92.90 EUR if you decide to enter this position. French drugmaker Sanofi SA plans to launch a drug for rare bleeding disorder hemophilia A this year, Chief Executive Officer Paul Hudson told CNBC in an interview last week. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration last year accepted the marketing application for the therapy, which is being developed in collaboration with Swedish drugmaker Sobi, and is expected to decide on an approval status by Feb. 28. Hemophilia A is an inherited bleeding disorder in which the blood does not clot normally. About 400 babies are born with this condition every year, although the exact number of people affected is not known, according to government data. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
EURONEXT:SANShort
by legacyFXofficial
AUD/USD slides after soft Aussie job reportThe Australian dollar has extended its slide on Thursday. AUD/USD is trading at 0.6884 in Europe, down 0.82%. Australia's December employment report was weaker than expected, sending the Australian dollar sharply lower. The headline reading showed a loss of 14,600 in total employment, which may have soured investors. The release wasn't all that bad, as full-time jobs showed gains of 17,600, with part-time positions falling by 32,200. The unemployment rate remained at 3.5%, but this was a notch higher than the forecast of 3.4%. On the inflation front, recent releases point to inflation moving higher. November CPI rose to 7.3%, up from 6.9%, and the Melbourne Institute Inflation Expectations climbed to 5.6%, up from 5.2%. We'll get a look at the all-important quarterly inflation reading next week. Inflation came in at 1.8% q/q in Q3, and an acceleration in Q4 would force the Reserve Bank of Australia to consider raising rates higher and for longer than it had anticipated. The cash rate is currently at 3.10%, and I expect the RBA will raise it to 3.50% or a bit higher, which means we are looking at further rate hikes early in the year. The US dollar seems to take a hit every time there is a soft US release, and this week has had its share of weak data. The Empire State Manufacturing Index sank to -32.9, while headline and core retail sales both fell by -1.1%. PPI came in at -0.5%. All three releases were weaker than the November readings and missed the forecasts, indicating that cracks are appearing across the US economy, as the bite of higher rates is being felt. The markets are clinging to the belief that softer numbers will force the Fed to ease up on its pace of rate hikes and possibly end the current rate-cycle after a 25-bp increase in February. The Fed has done its best to dispel speculation that it will pivot, but I expect the US dollar to lose ground if key releases are weaker than expected. AUD/USD is testing support at 0.6893. Below, there is support at 0.6810 0.6944 and 0.7027 are the next resistance lines
by OANDA
lets talk about a broader turn around in technologytechnology has led the market down. semiconductors have led technology. this stock has exhibited particular rate of change and other bullish volume based oscillations. bil williams ma, vwma, ema, trama as well as displaced ma are also bullish along trend lines. this leads me to a swing vased strat for continuation following the concordant supports, resistances and resulting ghost feed. this goes for stock like NVDA, and the broader market too. i am selling as spx approached 4035-4037, and i am hedging on pullbacks in taiwan semiconductor by buying SOXS and scalping for a few pennies at a time. im long the broader market with TQQQ on breaks of resistance or support on daily higher lows.
NYSE:TSMLong
by cerealpatterns
GBP/USD drifting, UK GDP nextThe British pound is drifting for a third straight day. In the European session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.2161, down 0.09%. We could see stronger volatility from the pound before the weekend, with the release of the US inflation report and UK GDP on Friday, both of which are market movers. There is guarded optimism ahead of the US inflation report. Inflation is projected to drop in December, which would be music to the market's ears. The forecast for headline inflation stands at 6.5%, following the November gain of 7.1%. The core rate, which is more important, is also expected to ease, with a forecast of 5.7% in December, compared to 6.0% in November. The inflation release should result in volatility from the US dollar. If inflation, particularly the core rate, falls as expected or more, the US dollar will likely lose ground, as speculation will increase that the Fed may have to pivot from its hawkish stance and ease up on the pace of rates. Conversely, if inflation does not fall as much as expected, it would vindicate the Fed's hawkish position, which the markets may have to grudgingly accept. There remains a dissonance between the Fed and the markets, despite warnings by the Fed that the markets are underestimating Fed rate policy. The Fed has insisted that further rate hikes are coming, while there have been market players who are expecting a "one and done" hike in February which will wrap up the current rate cycle. The markets have priced in a peak terminal rate below 5% as well as rate cuts late in the year, while the Fed has been signalling a peak rate of 5-5.25% or even higher. In the UK, there are no major releases on Thursday, but Friday will be busy, highlighted by monthly GDP and Manufacturing Production. The markets are braced for soft numbers, which could send the pound lower. GDP for November is expected to contract by 0.2% m/m, following a gain of 0.5% in October. Manufacturing Production for November is forecast to come in at -4.8% y/y, after a -4.6% reading in October. GBP/USD is putting pressure on 1.1832 and could test this line today. The next support level is 1.1726 There is resistance at 1.1913 and 1.2026
by OANDA
US Weekly Fundamental Recap (RE ALIGNMENT)Let try this again, hard to get this lined up nicely... This week we saw some interesting indicators start to decline. In industry: More volatile PMI manufacturing saw further pull below 50 while PMI services have now just crossed the threshold. PMI services has only crossed below 50 during a few periods in the last 25 years. Labor markets Labor statistics continue to remain fairly static. They are expected to weaken as the federal funds rate continues to inch higher, at least slightly, while easing is still moderately applied. Thoughts Zooming out to a broader look ahead I believe we will be back to visit 2019 lows, at a minimum. Best case we see a retest of a long supporting moving average at a point CPI Y/Y and banking rates are both heading in the right direction. If this were to play out there would be an addition 30-35% pullback in the NAS/US500 while these metrics return from their hopeful extremes. Worse-er case, we lose the monthly 100 EMA and slip back to erase 9-12 years of "industry" gains (or to present a wonderful buying opportunity @ ~85% discount!). The timing is everything with this one, when do we approach that price area. Sooner is not better for its strength IMO. If we see confluence between the NAS Monthly 100EMA, CPI / rates sub 4%, bond bounce back, US dollar off its bully run yadda yadda - all in. If we get there too soon; before rates have stabilized or begun their decline, CPI is continuing to gap target significantly, the DXY is on the rise / holding ect - that EMA will become a good resistance for my short entry. Happy trading - stay agile
FX:NAS100Short
by Scott_The_Chartist
2
US Weekly Fundamental Recap & macro thoughtsThis week we saw some interesting indicators start to decline. In industry: More volatile PMI manufacturing saw further pull below 50 while PMI services have now just crossed the threshold. PMI services has only crossed below 50 during a few periods in the last 25 years. Labor markets Labor statistics continue to remain fairly static. They are expected to weaken as the federal funds rate continues to inch higher, at least slightly, while easing is still moderately applied. Thoughts Zooming out to a broader look ahead I believe we will be back to visit 2019 lows, at a minimum. Best case we see a retest of a long supporting moving average at a point CPI Y/Y and banking rates are both heading in the right direction. If this were to play out there would be an addition 30-35% pullback in the NAS/US500 while these metrics return from their hopeful extremes. Worse-er case, we lose the monthly 100 EMA and slip back to erase 9-12 years of "industry" gains (or to present a wonderful buying opportunity @ ~85% discount!). The timing is everything with this one , when do we approach that price area. Sooner is not better for its strength IMO. If we see confluence between the NAS Monthly 100EMA, CPI / rates sub 4%, bond bounce back, US dollar off its bully run yadda yadda - all in. If we get there too soon ; before rates have stabilized or begun their decline, CPI is continuing to gap target significantly, the DXY is on the rise / holding ect - that EMA will become a good resistance for my short entry. Happy trading - stay agile
FX:NAS100Short
by Scott_The_Chartist
1
Green in your DM Desktop Metals pond fishing 3D printer“I would not be a Moses to lead you into the Promised Land, because if I could lead you into it, someone else could lead you out of it.” “A privately owned world can never be a free world and a society based upon warring classes cannot stand.” Desktop Metal, Inc. engages in the manufacture of additive manufacturing solutions accessible to engineering, design, and manufacturing applications. It operates through the following geographical segments: Americas, Europe Middle East, and Africa, and Asia Pacific. The firm offers 3D printing machines. It was founded by Ric Fulop, Emanuel Sachs, Rick Chin, A. John Hart, Yet Ming Chiang, Christopher A. Schuh, and Jonah Myerberg in October 2015 and is headquartered in Burlington, MA.
NYSE:DMLong
by noam_chom
7
10/23/22 HONHoneywell International Inc. ( NASDAQ:HON ) Sector: Producer Manufacturing (Industrial Conglomerates) Market Capitalization: 123.158B Current Price: $182.81 Breakout price trigger: $185.85 Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $182.00-$169.55 Price Target: $200.40-$203.00 (1st), $221.20-$226.00 (2nd) Estimated Duration to Target: 161-170d (1st), 323-351d (2nd) Contract of Interest: $HON 3/17/23 190c, $HON 1/19/24 200c Trade price as of publish date: $8.20/contract, $17.10/contract
NASDAQ:HONLong
by lord_catnip
This Week in the Markets (October 3-7)October 3 (Monday) German Manufacturing PMI UK Manufacturing PMI October 4 (Tuesday) US ISM Manufacturing PMI RBA Interest Rate Decision October 5 (Wednesday) US JOLTs Job Openings UK Composite PMI US ADP Employment Change October 6 (Thursday) US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI Australia Trade Balance UK Construction PMI Eurozone Retail Sales Canada Ivey PMI October 7 (Friday) US Nonfarm Payrolls Canada Unemployment Rate What You Need to Know This Week: 🔸 The RBA Interest Rate Decision is expected to remain at 2.35% 🔸 Estimates have the Nonfarm Payrolls to add 250,000 jobs into the market. 🔸 No major earnings report this week. More information on Mitrade website.
FRED:CE16OV
by Mitrade_official
Brazil to enter the next round of the presidential electionEUR/USD ▶️ GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔽 USD/CAD 🔼 XAU ▶️ WTI 🔽 A fine margin in the results has denied an outright victory in the Brazilian presidential election, both former and current presidents will go head to head in the next round. While the people are divided by their choice of leader, potential unrest lies ahead if the final result sparks controversies. As an oil producer and commodity exporter, this could further disrupt the global supply chain. WTI oil futures declined to $79.49 a barrel and just surged to $81.67. Despite experiencing considerable fluctuations, recession fears kept gold prices mostly steady at $1,660.98 an ounce. After rebounding from 0.9744, the Euro then closed to 0.9799 against the US dollar, and GBP/USD went higher to 1.116. Later today, both Germany and the UK will provide their manufacturing PMI readings for September, the market expects the manufacturing sectors would not change in terms of performance. Tomorrow morning, the Reserve Bank of Australia is going to announce its interest rate decision, current estimates anticipated a 50-basis point increase to 2.85%. Meanwhile, AUD/USD recovered from a low of 0.6397 to 0.6402, recording a loss of over 100 pips. USD/CAD closed at a high of 1.3826, and the US manufacturing PMI will be available early tomorrow. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
1
BAT (BATS.l) bearish scenario:The technical figure Rising Wedge can be found in the UK company British American Tobacco plc (BATS.l) at daily chart. British American Tobacco plc is a British multinational company that manufactures and sells cigarettes, tobacco and other nicotine products. The company, established in 1902, is headquartered in London, England. As of 2019, it is the largest tobacco company in the world based on net sales The Rising Wedge has broken through the support line on 06/07/2022, if the price holds below this level you can have a possible bearish price movement with a forecast for the next 27 days towards 3 194.00 GBp. Your stop loss order according to experts should be placed at 3 645.00 GBp if you decide to enter this position. The board of British American Tobacco p.l.c. has announced that it will be increasing its dividend on the 17th of August to UK £0.54. The announced payment will take the dividend yield to 6.0%, which is in line with the average for the industry. While it is always good to see a solid dividend yield, we should also consider whether the payment is feasible. The last payment made up 73% of earnings, but cash flows were much higher. This leaves plenty of cash for reinvestment into the business. The next year is set to see EPS grow by 11.5%. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we think the payout ratio could be 69% by next year, which is in a pretty sustainable range. Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses
LSE:BATSShort
by legacyFXofficial
Pound jumps on strong mfg. dataGBP/USD has resumed its upswing after a quiet start to the week. GBP/USD is trading at 1.3261 in the North American session, up 0.75% on the day. It was just one week ago that the pound was in the dumps, falling to the symbolic 1.30 line. Since then, the currency has gone on a tear, gaining around 2%. With plenty of turbulence and uncertainty, from the Ukraine war to oil prices to sizzling inflation, we could see further volatility in the currency markets in the short term. UK industrial order expectations for March jumped to 26, up from 20 in February and above the estimate of 16. Manufacturing output remains strong, as the sector continues to expand. The strong reading helped boost the pound today. The UK releases the February inflation report on Wednesday, with the markets bracing for an acceleration in inflation. The headline reading is expected to rise to 4.2% YoY, up from 4%, while Core CPI is projected to climb to 5.0%, up from 4.4%. The BoE continues to revise its inflation forecast upwards and has warned that CPI could hit a staggering 10% by the end of the year. The Bank has raised rates three straight times and seems likely to continue tightening in order to curb red-hot inflation. The surge in inflation has made government borrowing more expensive, and the cost of servicing the UK's national debt continues to rise. This poses a serious problem for Chancellor Rishi Sunak, who will deliver the annual budget on Wednesday. Consumers and businesses will be looking for goodies in the budget, but Sunak may be limited in what he can do, as he must allocate billions of pounds more for borrowing costs as a result of inflation and higher interest rates. In the US, Fed Chair Powell delivered a strong, hawkish message to the markets on Monday. Powell came out swinging, saying that the Fed was prepared to be more aggressive in raising rates if needed. Powell's message was crystal clear, as he noted that “the labor market is very strong, and inflation is much too strong” and said that the Fed would not hesitate to implement 50-basis point increases at future meetings if necessary. In response to Powell’s hawkish message, US Treasury yields rose on Monday to their highest level since 2019 and the upswing has continued on Tuesday, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 2.37%. GBP/USD has broken above resistance at 1.3259. Above, there is resistance at 1.3341 There is support at 1.3130 and 1.3048
by OANDA
1
Japanese yen falls to five-year highThe US dollar continues to pummel the Japanese yen. USD/JPY pushed above the 117 line earlier today for the first time since January 2017. USD/JPY is up 0.61% on the day and has recorded a massive gain of 1.76% this week. We continue to see sharp volatility in the currency markets and the Japanese yen has not been immune to the turbulence. Risk apprehension has been fluctuating, depending on developments in the Ukraine crisis. Like the US dollar, the yen is also considered a safe-haven currency, but with the US economy in much better shape than that of Japan, the US dollar has been the big winner from the recent turbulence we're seeing in the markets. As well, commodities are priced in US dollars, so the recent surge in commodity prices has boosted the US dollar. If the Ukraine crisis worsens and commodity prices continue to soar, it is entirely feasible that the USD/JPY will continue its upswing and break above the 120 line. In the US, headline CPI continued to accelerate, with a gain of 7.9% for February YoY. This matched the forecast and was up from 7.5% beforehand. With inflation running at 40-year high, there's little doubt that the Fed will raise rates at next week's meeting, most likely by 25 basis points. Japan ended the week with mixed numbers. Household Spending for January showed a sharp rebound of 6.9% YoY, up from -0.2% in December and above the consensus of 3.3%. However, the BSI Manufacturing Index for Q1 came in at -7.6, down from +7.2 in Q3 and way off the consensus estimate of +8.2. The BoJ is expected to maintain a dovish stance, despite rising inflation. On Friday, a senior BoJ official stated Japan's current and economic price conditions would make it inappropriate to respond with monetary tightening. USD/JPY continues to climb and break above resistance lines. Earlier in the day, the pair broke above resistance at 116.27 and 116.72. The next resistance is at 117.33. There is support at 115.56 and 115.11
by OANDA
2
Pound falls, US inflation jumpsGBP/USD has reversed directions on Thursday, giving up most of the gains from a day earlier. In the North American, session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3132, down 0.41% on the day. In the US, headline CPI continued to accelerate, with a gain of 7.9% for February YoY. This matched the forecast and was up from 7.5% beforehand. With inflation running close to 8%, a rate hike is a virtual given at next week's Federal Reserve meeting. What happens after that is less clear, as the Fed has to worry about stagflation, given the massive upswing in oil prices. The markets had priced in six rate hikes this year, but the turbulence due to the Ukraine crisis and the staggering rise in oil prices will translate into the Fed being more cautious about future rate hikes. Earlier today, a meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine earlier today did not result in any breakthroughs, although the sides agreed to continue to meet. The fighting continues, and with the Russian invasion force appearing to have stalled, there are fears that Russian President Putin could double down in frustration and hit more civilian targets. This would exacerbate the massive humanitarian crisis due to the Russian invasion, which has already affected millions of Ukrainians. The markets will be treated to a data dump from the UK on Friday. The highlights include the January reports for GDP and Manufacturing Production. GDP is expected to jump 9.3% YoY, following a 6.5% gain in December. Manufacturing Production is forecast to accelerate to 3.1%, compared to 1.3% beforehand. Strong readings would be further indication that the UK economy continues to improve, with the next BoE rate meeting just a week away. GBP/USD has broken through support at 1.3146. Below, there is support at 1.3057 There is resistance at 1.3249 and 1.3380
by OANDA
1
Pound falls, US inflation jumpsGBP/USD has reversed directions on Thursday, giving up most of the gains from a day earlier. In the North American, session, GBP/USD is trading at 1.3132, down 0.41% on the day. In the US, headline CPI continued to accelerate, with a gain of 7.9% for February YoY. This matched the forecast and was up from 7.5% beforehand. With inflation running close to 8%, a rate hike is a virtual given at next week's Federal Reserve meeting. What happens after that is less clear, as the Fed has to worry about stagflation, given the massive upswing in oil prices. The markets had priced in six rate hikes this year, but the turbulence due to the Ukraine crisis and the staggering rise in oil prices will translate into the Fed being more cautious about future rate hikes. Earlier today, a meeting between the foreign ministers of Russia and Ukraine earlier today did not result in any breakthroughs, although the sides agreed to continue to meet. The fighting continues, and with the Russian invasion force appearing to have stalled, there are fears that Russian President Putin could double down in frustration and hit more civilian targets. This would exacerbate the massive humanitarian crisis due to the Russian invasion, which has already affected millions of Ukrainians. The markets will be treated to a data dump from the UK on Friday. The highlights include the January reports for GDP and Manufacturing Production. GDP is expected to jump 9.3% YoY, following a 6.5% gain in December. Manufacturing Production is forecast to accelerate to 3.1%, compared to 1.3% beforehand. Strong readings would be further indication that the UK economy continues to improve, with the next BoE rate meeting just a week away. GBP/USD has broken through support at 1.3146. Below, there is support at 1.3057 There is resistance at 1.3249 and 1.3380
by yesfish
1
NZ dollar slips, mfg. sales nextThe New Zealand dollar has started the week in negative territory. NZD/USD is down 0.50%, and is trading at 0.6825 in the North American session. The currency enjoyed its best week since August 2021, with gains of 1.75%. The war in Europe has drained risk appetite, but the kiwi, although sensitive to risk, is also a commodity-based currency, and has moved higher on the wings of soaring commodity prices. New Zealand releases Manufacturing Sales for Q4 on Tuesday. After a weak Q3 release of -2.2%, a positive reading could give NZD/USD a boost. The war in Ukraine has understandably taken over the news, overshadowing the economic calendar. Still, investors are also keeping an eye on key releases, and among the most important are US nonfarm payrolls. The news was good on Friday, as February NFP outperformed with a strong showing. The economy created 678 thousand jobs in February, crushing the consensus of 400 thousand and above the January reading of 481 thousand. The unemployment rate fell to 3.8%, down from 4.0%. With workers in short supply, pressure on wages will continue, and the Fed is likely to respond with a cycle of rate hikes, starting in March. Inflation continues to accelerate, and there had been talk of the Fed taking a drastic measure and imposing a half-point rate hike. However, the war in Ukraine and the stunning rise in oil prices has led to central banks showing an abundance of caution in this turbulent economic landscape. The CME's FedWatch is projecting a 94% likelihood of a 25-basis point rise at the March meeting. This will mark the liftoff of a rate-tightening cycle, as the Fed moves toward normalization. The US releases CPI on Thursday, which is projected to hit 8%. A release within expectations will raise pressure on the Fed to align their timeline more closely with market expectations of six rate hikes this year. The Fed was slow to react to high inflation, and faces a real challenge in raising rates enough to bring inflation down to manageable levels without choking off the recovery. 0.6803 is a weak support line and could be tested during the day. Below, there is support at 0.6733 There is resistance at 0.6931 and 0.7000
by OANDA