Margin
ETH at a Junction gotta make a choice.Went long on this yesterday on Bitmex with 10x which gives a $200 REKT price which I think is pretty safe. Target for now is $270, from a buyin of say $220 that would give a 227% gain. Looking on the daily you can see it is at a point where it needs to decide what to do.
On lower timeframes you will see it has fallen below this trend but the daily looks fine and the oscillators don't show anything except continuation. So for me for now this is a long.
My referral link for Bitmex should you like to play this. Dont have to use it just posting this to see what happens.
www.bitmex.com
Where is BTC nowBIg red triangle all chart is in is descending triangle BTC currently in and expected to brake to the downside.
Two possible formations on chart - wedge and double top.
I think it's time to open long term shorts. Bull line doesn't seem to be achievable from what i see on any timeframe.
Trade at your own risk.
PS. I found that SPX 500 and BTC charts having most of the time simultaneous south moves.
SPX is overbought and about to drop , Tim Cook sold all of his apple recently and i believe as top SPX company CEO sells his shares - it means something.
RSI Top sellingRSI is the easiest and the most simple to read indicator in lifetime.
When RSI is approaching a 70-80 zone, you have to be extremely aware of shorting opportunities.
If market was an electric water heater , you should understand, that it can't go higher of boiling temperature or it will explode.
Anyway outcome is a drop and if RSI reached 80 , drop will be significant.
When RSI drops to 30-40 levels it's perfect time to take profit , preferably by using deversified take profit stops.
This is the most safest trading opportunity for anyone just because it can't go wrong.
Try to practice by scrolling Top 100 stocks.
Keep in mind - Drop in SPX index means significant drop in stocks across the board. There have to be perfect opportunities
besides SPX top 20 list for sure.
Never Trade on Amount of Money That You Don't Feel Comfortable too Loose.
Take It As A "SAFE" gambling only. Always use EXTRA margin , just to sleep well :)
It should be for fun , other wise you should not trade ever.
Investing and Trading are different things. Please understand that fundamentally.
This is a technical lesson / mentorship , not a financial advice of any kind.
XBT/BTC LONGXBT / USD
BUY: 7650-7855 & 7300-7500 (2 major support zones marked on the chart in green providing 2 buy zones, should the first one fail, average down using the second zone)
TARGET :
TARGET 1 : 7650
TARGET 2 : 7800
TARGET 3: 8000
TARGET 4: 8200
TARGET 5: 8600
TARGET 6: 8800
TARGET 7: 9200
STOP : 6950
First target is only if we drop into the second buy zone
Short signal XBT/USD - Need to correction before bull-runningChikou Span (at the red arrow) is in Ichimoku cloud right now, so BTC is not yet breakout successful. 8500 is really a very strong resistance level, and in history BTC can't get over without correction at this level (this doesn't mean history is always true). But we need to see BTC make a correction at this level before bull-running. Because, if BTC get over this level without correction, it will make a F.O.M.O signal and money will be flow in this market too fast, this will put BTC in loss-control mode, this is really not the thing Sharks want to.
So, Short at 8500 with under 20% of your budget and keep stop-loss at 8650.
Hope this analytics will help you successful
Trading Major Markets on Margin Part 2
Trading Major Markets on Margin: Part 2
...You need a game plan.
You need a system.
You need stops.
You need to understand true risk management and try to keep it as simple as possible at the same time .
You need discipline.
You need courage to buy when others are selling and to sell when others buying - if the correct signals are present to do so.
You need patience.
You need belief proven by evidence.
You need to test this by paper trading - or at least only trading the Dow for say $3 per point at outset.
If so and you were to decide on risking this amount per point and the stop you used on the Dow was 50 points away then the loss is $150 in this instance if wrong.
Look for trades that have risk/rewards of 3 to 10 times upside to 1 of downside whenever possible.
The upside on the Dow trade from Friday was from 24860 back to the highs and in near term it was back to 25000 - maybe 140 upside and 20 points of risk with a stop 20 lower. Or at 50 points of risk it just about qualifies as a 3 to 1 shot.
The low was 24852 on the futures.
Sometimes it works and sometimes not.
It really hurts to get stopped out and then the trade goes the way you originally thought it would.
Really hurts. More than being plain wrong usually.
But it will happen nevertheless.
On the other hand you could have got long around 24641 on Thursday and have closed out at 25000 yesterday for 360 points profit = $1080 profit before 2 points in costs.
The risk was between 20 to 50 points on the stop, so between $60 and $150 at $3 per point - so you know what you you stand to lose before the trade is initiated.
When you test it 20 times with small small numbers and see it works - or it doesn't - you can decide on whether you have a system of trading bigger numbers or not.
When you do, you can start to compound wins and losses and keep dividing total risk on ANY single trade to 5% of the total bank, 1/20th of the total bank.
If you did this with the Dow as above, (when tested to satisfaction first!) and you staked $1k with 50 points of stop it means $1000 divided by 50 points = $20 per point x 360 = $7200 profit.
For $1000 of risk.
The 20k is now worth $27,200.
Now you compound it and trade 5% of this on the next trade.
It takes less than a year to turn 10k into 1m if you can be bothered and disciplined enough.
You only need to be right half the time if the risk reward is right to begin with.
Go do the math...
There is no right way to trade. Just the one that suits your own profile and time considerations best.
This is just one way. It does work though, most of the time : )
Be lucky, whichever way you choose.
Trading Major Markets using Stops and Margin: Risk/Reward RatiosTrading Major Markets 1 of 2
You've probably already learned a lot through trading Bitcoin.
Those skill-sets are super scalable.
Often am in too much of a hurry to cover other markets to have time to lay out stops and risk reward ratios - hoping that you're experienced enough to work them out for yourself when I miss doing them- which will be quite often in fast markets.
There just isn't time except at weekends to cover things from a newbie's perspective.
This analysis is meant to be for more experienced traders really.
But for newer traders this is one way of trading technical signals. It isn't fool-proof. No system is.
But it works well across multiple markets if used with discipline, and without emotion.
But please don't believe mere words.
If it interests you please test it first.
20 times.
Calibrate your rifle sights/stops as per the pinned message at top of crypto pages and test tolerance levels of stops given.
It will never be perfect though.
We don't have to be either.
Just close enough...
Wave Trading and Wave Counting
Don't really see where Elliott 'waves' figure in the great scheme of things or at the micro level either.
Would like to. But have little evidence usually.
But If Elliott floats your boat and you can trade off it that's great. Please share if so ; )
In the meantime smaller time scale signals are there to be traded. And if we trade them with stops and a system that works more often than not we can make good returns on half and more of the positive trades and yet limit losses on the ones that don't work out as planned.
And by trading smaller moves we become part of and merge into the longer term. It's more fun to ride the smaller waves - they too become part of the bigger wave anyway.
And if we can see a good Elliott wave amongst the noise all the better. If so, share it dude!
Until then, if you can SEE that the stop is very close or ideally that price is right on it (limit down as with FB last week for example) then it's a SPECULATIVE buy with a stop close underneath the level given.
It's 'speculative' because we don't know that this will be the bottom.
In this respect 'breakouts', though still speculative, are less so than buying lows. We all want to do the latter: the buy low sell high mantra didn't make it to market mantra-hood by coincidence.
But lows can be more difficult to spot than breakouts, which no one misses really.
For example with the Dow recently it was around 20 to 50 points of stop if you were buying the dips, (see global markets link at top of main page)
Some will just leave orders in the market with a decent stop - say if looking to buy the Dow within 10 or 15 points of a given level (cannot expect to be bang on every day, you know that already) - they leave the order to strike or not and then use a stop at least 20 lower on Dow and maybe 50 at most. And some stick in a limit order too at the same time as the stop.
Sometimes it works well.
Sometimes it never gets struck.
And sometimes it's a big fail and we get stopped out for 20-50 points on the Dow.
It takles a lot of the emotion out of the equation. Not all of it. But a lot of it.
And if you can work out the RISK in points you can then work out potential rewards too.
Then it becomes possible to divide your total bank into 20 - so 20k total bank for ease of explanation = 20 trades or bets of $1000 each at a maximum - for this is effectively what we are doing... Betting that our call is better than the market's call at that moment in time compared to some future moment in time.
We don't have to be right much more than 50% of the time though we all want to be.
If we can be stoical/philosophical about losses and wins and tread the line without thinking either we're too clever or too stupid we stand a better chance of handling the inevitable losses when they come.
To think you're Billy-whizz of the markets and then discover you're not is way more disheartening than
never thinking that crap in the first place...
Part 2next
Short-Term Long on $ADA - BitmexI am building a 10x long position on ADA on Bitmex right now. The 1 hour chart looks prime for a bounce and from there I will reevaluate as we go. I will probably be aiming for a 2-5% bounce on this one. I like to scale into my entries with low leverage to mitigate risk on Bitmex.
Accumulating a Long Position on $LTC - Bitmex Margin TradingAs I've said before, I like to accumulate my leveraged trading positions at 10x leverage and a little at a time to mitigate risk and ensure I get a good entry. I like LTC a lot here as I see a potential giant falling wedge on the 4 hour. LTC has been suffering for a while but I think we at least see a short term bounce here. I have stops below the wedge support and if we break that it probably means that BTC is dumping. If that happens I would look to short on the retest of former support. We also have a low stoch, rsi, and we are near the bottom of the 4 hour bollinger bands (and the 1 hour). Entry .01194. We'll see what happens!
Clam. Probably a long play sometime this month. July 2018Clams is looking like it could be a long in the near future. This is on Poloniex and you can play it on margin. It looks to have bottomed out and is making the first signs of waking up. Late last month you can see someone sold a bunch of it, well it was only $120,000 and you can see the kind of impact that kind of cash has on this coin. Looking at the volume on polo there is less than 1BTC trading at the time of this post.
I am thinking set alerts for it to hit the 50% fib at around 0.0004 btc. Look for it to start to turn there on smaller time-frames and buy some. A conservative target would be 0.00056 which is a 40% rise and if you have it with margin you are looking at 100% +
Should it start to move more people would notice and the volume would increase, if now there is only 1btc trading it, imagine it with 10. That would be a 1000% increase and surley would have positive effects on the price. So yeah add it to your watchlist, set alarms and look to get in on this should it start to move.
As with everything it depends on BTC price, should that take another dive everything else will too so be prepared to sell if that happens even take a loss you dont want to get stuck in some shitcoin for months waiting to breakeven.
Looking at the daily chart you can get some idea of targets to go for.
That huge 400% target does not seem so far fetched if you look at it on the weekly chart.
A look vs USD to give you a sense of prices.
somewhat foolproof high leverage (>25x) trading plan exampleThe idea is simple. look for key moment in a chart where large consolidation is coming to a head.
most recently we had this occur.
multi month triangle coming to a head.
bulls...
thinking we would break out of the consolidating triangle and ignite a new bull run.
3 apparent higher lows on the daily.
fundamentals getting stronger every day
institutional investors AND governments acknowledging keen interest and excitement
bears...
weekly macd bear cross below 0 line
below all major daily MAs
just closed two consecutive weeks below 50 weekly MA
this is just a sampling of technical indicators. we could add more to both sides.
regardless, it doesn't matter which one happens. Here's how you win no matter what.
as the consolidation approaches an apex, you get the opportunity to margin short and long at the same time .
consider the following.
You have $2k available for a trade. $1k for long and $1k for short.
wait until consolidation get's tight. look for the spread between the lower highs and the higher lows to get below 4%
Looking at the LIGHT green
after multiple HL and LHs, this a is a GREAT long and short entry for 25x, 50x, 100x. These options are likely NOT the entire of the HL and LHs, which is really good for possibly NOT getting margin called on your losing trade.
If you manage to get both long and short entered, wait a bit and let the triangle continue to form. stop loss BELOW our entry significantly. basically if you got an entry near the supporting triangle trend it may back test it, place stops below that. you might lose a significant portion of your trade. deal with it, this is margin trading. Now that the price has drifted from your entry, place stops at break even.
as the triangle reaches it's apex...its going to pop eventually. One of your 50x positions will be in a sick position for major profit, and the other will have closed (hopefully for little/no loss)
DARK green
You're late to the game, but same theory applies. open high leverage longs/shorts on triangle bounce. riskier here because you are expecting the triangle to break soon.
WHY is it somewhat?
of course nothing is perfect. and we have seen once or twice the whales clear out shorts AND longs in one sick up/down.
but this gives you a very good chance to have a live high margin trade. it just costs double then the advertised collateral.
Skulls, Bones And Candlesticks - The Margin CallIf you are a beginner in the wonderful world of charts, patterns and indicators, this post is for you...
Almost all traders have on day faced an account crash and anyone knows that it is a damn bad moment to go through.
My goal here is to identify what is the main reason leading to this morbid situation that make us crash our accounts...and provide some tips to avoid being in panic when the margin call happens.
The leverage and margin level.
The trading world is seen as an eldorado for most of people, especially because it seems so easy to make much money very quickly. It is also a path to financial independency which is a dream for many people. Working from home or simply working with only a smartphone and make money like that. It seems so nice.
Let's be clear, If the leverage did not exist we would not be here on Tradingview. If trading knows as much succes, it is also because we can invest much more than we have in fact. With $1,000, we are able to invest up to $500,000 in the market... from our smartphone... Simply insane.
Difficult to stay cold being aware of that.
Who has never been in margin call here? This situation should never happen. If so, then your trading behavior is at risk and you will crash your account sooner or later.
My solution: Always respect the 10% rule. Your overall margin including all opened position should never exceed 10% of your account.
If your capital is $1,000 then your max margin would be $100. Even there it is only for agressive traders.
Why the 10% rule can help you to succeed?
In fact, you can use it as psychological barrier.
As an example, you can face the case where you have a position in loss. I identify 3 main situations:
A) You position is in an important loss. You are tempted to average down the entry price of the position by adding a new one on the same pair. Clearly the badest behavior. With the max margin at 10% you cannot add multiple positions without breaking the rule. It is your alert.
B) You can also let the position run in loss without doing anything. Your stop loss? Psychologically, you are not able to handle such a loss so you pray for the market to reverse. It is possible depending of the fundamentals and technical configuration, if a huge support is broken, better worth closing the position. Letting the position run is risky but clearly much more acceptable than the A situation.
C) Your position is in loss but you use a stop loss. The stop is hit but you accept this loss and look for a better opportunity to enter in the market again. Ideally on a support or a resistance.
In definitive, being in margin call should warn you that your trading behavior is dangerous in a medium to long run. The probability for you to crash your acccount sooner or later is damn high.