Margintrading
The Crypto war in margintrading
In this post i try to check short and long contract on Bitfinex in contrast of BTCUSD price it seems bears are enjoying their victory and have fun while bulls make plane to stand against them.
According to the upper charts we expect to see reduction in short contracts .
$BTC Bitmex Leveraged LongSetting long orders from $7,800 - $7,925. 10x leverage.
If we break down, I will add more in the $7,430 - $7,550 zone.
If we hit the first target held up by the 0.236 fib zone, that will signal to me a bullish continuation. We are looking for a decently strong bounce for the bulls on that 0.236 which will give us further evidence of continuation.
$BTC I believe has much more room to grow from here so I'm working on building a big old long.
If you find this information valuable, please like and follow. Not financial advice.
Short-Term Long on $ADA - BitmexI am building a 10x long position on ADA on Bitmex right now. The 1 hour chart looks prime for a bounce and from there I will reevaluate as we go. I will probably be aiming for a 2-5% bounce on this one. I like to scale into my entries with low leverage to mitigate risk on Bitmex.
$BTS USD Head and Shoulders Idea Expanded - Aim For AccumulationI am aiming to build low leverage longs in that box while the 4 hour and 1 hour indicators are reset. I think we will see a strong bounce and the price action from today does not concern me at all.
I don't have a stop loss on this, I will keep averaging down until a good bounce and then reevaluate the trade if I need to. Will probably aim to jump out when the 4 hour indicators are on their way back up. Will look to exit if this head and shoulder fails or on liquidation. Look out for me on the BitmexRekt bot!
Scalp short entry Update to my last call from telegram.
Nothing really changes, I still see that 0.382 Fib zone as a possible scalp short entry. We formed ih&s here, retested bullish OB. Normally, you would want to long this, perfect set up imo, however there is a hidden bear div, and RSI 1h is forming a very dangerous rising channel. Long from current levels to close it and flip short at 0.382 is ballsy. Do it under your responsibility. I am waiting for short entry rather (NOT using big position, going very easy, because I believe being a BIG bear here = being an idiot. Beware of last big fake out rally (at least I expect that)
Ripple Possible Bullish Breakout ScenariosBeen in this downward channel since the beginning of this month.
Some rebranding news seems to be floating around. Could give XRP the much needed push.
Secondly, seems to be forming a descending wedge on the hourly.
Well, the point is we need to keep an eye on XRP.
I'm going long with tight stop loss for Scenario 1 (Blue Arrows)
If that fails to break out, I'll go long around 8082 for Scenario 2 (Purple Arrows)
This makes an ideal scenario for XRPM18 long on Bitmex
Overall, I'm bullish on XRP as a good 2-4 weeks hold.
somewhat foolproof high leverage (>25x) trading plan exampleThe idea is simple. look for key moment in a chart where large consolidation is coming to a head.
most recently we had this occur.
multi month triangle coming to a head.
bulls...
thinking we would break out of the consolidating triangle and ignite a new bull run.
3 apparent higher lows on the daily.
fundamentals getting stronger every day
institutional investors AND governments acknowledging keen interest and excitement
bears...
weekly macd bear cross below 0 line
below all major daily MAs
just closed two consecutive weeks below 50 weekly MA
this is just a sampling of technical indicators. we could add more to both sides.
regardless, it doesn't matter which one happens. Here's how you win no matter what.
as the consolidation approaches an apex, you get the opportunity to margin short and long at the same time .
consider the following.
You have $2k available for a trade. $1k for long and $1k for short.
wait until consolidation get's tight. look for the spread between the lower highs and the higher lows to get below 4%
Looking at the LIGHT green
after multiple HL and LHs, this a is a GREAT long and short entry for 25x, 50x, 100x. These options are likely NOT the entire of the HL and LHs, which is really good for possibly NOT getting margin called on your losing trade.
If you manage to get both long and short entered, wait a bit and let the triangle continue to form. stop loss BELOW our entry significantly. basically if you got an entry near the supporting triangle trend it may back test it, place stops below that. you might lose a significant portion of your trade. deal with it, this is margin trading. Now that the price has drifted from your entry, place stops at break even.
as the triangle reaches it's apex...its going to pop eventually. One of your 50x positions will be in a sick position for major profit, and the other will have closed (hopefully for little/no loss)
DARK green
You're late to the game, but same theory applies. open high leverage longs/shorts on triangle bounce. riskier here because you are expecting the triangle to break soon.
WHY is it somewhat?
of course nothing is perfect. and we have seen once or twice the whales clear out shorts AND longs in one sick up/down.
but this gives you a very good chance to have a live high margin trade. it just costs double then the advertised collateral.
BTCUSD- Fear not the whales! Staying afloat amidst manipulationOH NO THE WHALES ARE MOVING THE MARKET!!!!
Yes, yes they are.
But that doesn't mean you have to watch your stops get swallowed up like a helpless krill!
All jokes aside, I hardly ever post about bitcoin as I'm an Ether guy myself, but there really is some highly suspect moves in the BTC market as of late. D4 did a great job of covering some of the suspect zones (link to his chart is provided) and in the comments you can find some secondary commentary and an accompanying chart showing some additional evidence of possible manipulation.
But lets be real, if you're trading cryptos and keep your head in the game, you already knew this was happening.
On to the good stuff!
So today we're going to:
Check out one of my methods for staying away from disastrous losses from liquidated stops while whales move the market
Look at some possible paths for BTC over the next day or so
Oogle some obescenely beautiful channel movement
Staying Afloat
***This is just what I personally do to manage my trades during heavy manipulation, it is neither perfect nor without risk; but if you stay proactive about watching the market you should be able to minimize the likeliness of taking losses in a whale sell off.
I truly cant stress this one enough: Monitor to break even before you even consider dropping a stop.
If you're trading 4 hours or greater bars, drop down your usual trade time cycle to half of its usual value and do your best to check the market often for dramatic shifts. (I usually trade 4 hour charts, in this market I drop to two and do my best to check every 4 hours at most).
Place very loose stops (I usually push down my normal stop as much as 6-8% lower
DONT LOSE YOUR HEAD! whales moving the markets can be scary to watch, but they're relatively easy to pick out.
You can see how many major "whale moves" correct rather rapidly (likely after minnow positions are liquidated), HODL is never a trade strategy, but a calculated short term hold for indications of a market shift is a completely viable strategy; possibly even keeping you from the way too common "buy high, sell low syndrome")
Possible Paths
Blue seems unlikely with the dropping volume against the sharp recovery that just occurred
Green is what I would really like to see and would be the "healthiest", id be more bullish on a pump to the 100% fib after some strong consolidation along the channel than a low volume jet upwards.
I dont think this scenario is too likely considering weve been moving channel bound for upwards of two weeks. If it does though, we're looking at some good support at both $8750 and $8000 (~%50 fib of current channel bound cycle)
Channels can be a beautiful thing
Theres not too much to this one, I just love examples of market geometry and technicals playing out in fromt of me. Really the channels began forming shortly after the recent cycle low reversal. It's interesting to note that both the high/low cycle shifted by a single channel each time the fib ratios were reached.
Stay frosty, and learn to fight the whales fellow crypto traders!
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DISCLOSURE:
This analysis is meant for educational purposes only. You trade at your own risk!
Austin Doyle
CTO
BTC Bullish - Is There Room To Run?BTC Bullish - Is There Room To Run?
Keys To The Chart
Red Danger Zone 1 - Heavy resistance 8375 to 8475
Red Danger Zone 2 - Confluence of resistance indicators $8950 - $9225
The Yellow Circles are zones of maximum risk to upside movement.
The 50 Period MA has crossed upward on the 200 MA. That is where the current leg up started. But notice that the 50 MA is also respecting the bottom of the ascending triangle as well, could this point to the floor of BTCs safe downside price in the current leg?
Bitcoin is trading in a small channel bounded by turquoise trend lines. A break to the upside leads directly into heavy price resistance in Red Zone1. A break from the channel to the downside points to the 200 period MA line (yellow) and the Fibonacci line at $7829 for support on the downside. A small rebound on the way down is likely at the 200 MA.
It seems to me that this Bitcoin market needs a stronger corrective move at this time in order to get some legs under it for an upward move that should carry to $11,600 with some stops along the way.
The dotted turquoise lines forming an upward pointing cone illustrate the projected path of possible trading before a breakout to a corrective move. I feel this is the best depiction of the price move upward that is currently happening. As the cone tightens, BTC will likely fail to hold its upward movement in the area of $9000 and take a sharp downward path to shake it off.
There is resistance at 6514 that is noteworthy and this could be the rebound point. If not then we must test the $5950 area.
Summary: There is money to be made here if you are nimble enough. This is no place for investors to play the market, or the less experienced. Maybe some room here to take some shorts with a stop loss above the 200 MA if you play margin, I don't and I don't recommend it. The crypto markets just move too fast.
I would not enter a long trade or a swing trade here either, better deals are coming soon.
Please, Don't forget to Like Agree, Comment and Follow Me, It's additional encouragement for me to share my work.
All statements and expressions I offer are my opinions, and not meant as investment advice or solicitation. Information provided is not personal investment advice. Seek guidance from a professional investment advisor before trading or investing. Trading cryptocurrencies can be a potentially profitable opportunity for investors. You should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. Most importantly, do not invest money you cannot afford to lose. I am not a registered investment advisor.
Wishing you success,
Isaac
BTC Don't Blame The Whales - Its Your ShortsWow, trading in crypto currencies is a lot like being in the trenches during a war. Speaking from personal experience you can spend endless hours in the dark and the quiet when nothing is happening and suddenly BOOM it's all in your face. Just as in warfare, some of you may need to check the condition of you shorts after things go boom.
I never trade on margin and today is a perfect example why. Had I been short like so many other people, I would've been rekt, and I know a lot of guys are out there crying in their beer right now. There was massive short interest in Bitcoin prior to this move and it was begging for someone to jump on it.
I was busy doing my normal thing, some analysis and writing on another crypto, namely Cardano today when Bitcoin exploded. I've been mulling over the idea in my head for the last few days about writing an article based on the published news that George Soros has entered trading in crypto currencies. Anyone who knows anything about George Soros knows that he is a ruthless SOB that has no conscience and takes great pride in destroying other people, even his own whom he betrayed to the Nazis. One of the things in Soros long and sordid career is that he is known as the man who destroyed the English pound years ago sending the entire economy of England into a spin for his own personal profit.
Soros has company too, some big traders and funds are entering the market and some of them are also heartless manipulators who tell lies about their own intentions and then trade the opposite. Jamie Dimon, and Mark Cuban for example. Both men trash talked Bitcoin and crypto currency. Both denied they had any interest and immediately after admitted publicly that each of them was buying in the market.
The crypto currency market is undergoing an evolutionary phase where it is becoming overregulated by government entities driven by special interests who will mold the laws and regulations to their benefit just as it has been done in the stock market in the name of protecting the little guy. Particularly in this time when there is very little regulation in crypto currencies, big players like Soros can come into the market and wreak pure hell. They're pretty much undetectable except by one thing. You can usually assume that whatever they say is the opposite of what is about to happen in the market.
We all know the crypto markets have a mind of their own and don't need any help from outsiders like Soros to surprise us at a moments notice. So what is my point in writing this? You should trade intelligently keeping your cards close to your chest and stay the heck out of margin trading. Don't for one second believe 99.9% of the braggers getting rich on margin, when you set up a trade or an investment use cash - have an entry and exit plan.
What's going to happen with Bitcoin next? At this moment based on what's happened the last few hours it's kind of hard to tell. I would watch the resistance levels that are drawn on my previous charts. We blew right through 7400 which I mentioned in another article I wrote this morning before this explosion. Bitcoin touched the area of $8000. I would say there's certainly room for short-term pullback but you need to keep your eyes open for 11,600 as the next upside target. If you were already in Bitcoin this morning when it took off congratulations. For you, I would either take my short term profits or set a stop loss to protect my profits to this point on the day.
I did not have any Bitcoin in my short-term trading portfolio, so this does not apply to me personally but if I had I would've sold out by this time, and taken my profits. However, I've had a nice ride in Verge and Cardano out performing Bitcoin the last few days. See my posts.
Keep a sharp eye on the price range of 7596 two 7804 either for a reversal or a breakthrough. If we get a breakthrough to the upside watch the 8426 price level, and should we get through that I would look for us to reach 11,600.