$CRON - Short Term BullishShort term bullish if technical break of long term apex with high vol
MACD curling
Entry @ $8.00
Stop loss @ $7.50
Exist @ 9.20
Marijuanastocks
Will WEED break the triangle?Since the last update WEED has been correcting within the triangle that I had defined, slowly making its way down and bouncing really hard off the upward trend line, taking it to the top of the triangle and closing on the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace. There is some resistance at this point as it will try to break its way out of the triangle for confirmation of a bullish signal if we can close somewhere around 30.50. We are not overbought on the 4H RSI and are now using the EMA20 as support and keep in mind that the EMA50 is about the cross over the EMA20 which is also a bullish signal, so hopefully we can close above the triangle and head towards new resistance at around 31 and then 32.
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Still in the triangle, rejected at the 50MA.As we successfully came back into the triangle, but got rejected below the downward trend line, respecting the 50 day moving average as resistance. It has now re-traced back to the 61.8% Fibonacci line, where it sits with indecision as I write this. There is some light support that is now holding us, but it won't take much volume in the wrong direction to see a re-test of the 200 day moving average, where it we can see some more serious support.
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CMED fell through triangle, nothing to bounce off.CMED has joined WEED in it's journey through the triangle, looking for any support it can get at the 200 day moving average. Continuing downward, a re-test of 28.00 and further are likely. I have indicated any remaining support or possible rebound zones.
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Broke upward trend line and fallen out of the triangle.We have officially fallen below the upward trend line and out the triangle, stopping right at the 50% Fibonacci retrace, which was to be expected. From here, there is not much left for support. We could bounce and come back into the channel, but a re-test of ~23.75 is more likely, and subsequently a re-test of the 38.2% Fib if support cannot be found there.
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WEED bounced off upward trend line, can it hold 200MA?After the correction and a trace all the way down to 25.34, we can see that it closed twice right on the current upward trend line and bounced. It is currently holding above, in the support and resistance channels that I have drawn on the 4H. Conviction does not look very high however, as it was looking to come back down again, but it got rejected just above the trend line. Hopefully we can close and keep it above the 200 day moving average, but a retest of the upward trend line or new support is definitely possible.
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WEED holds support at the MA50? So much sideways chop!There is a a lot of choppy sideways movement going on with WEED right now that I wasn't expecting and it invalidated the temp upward trend that looked promising.. I was really hoping that we could confirm three points, but we are now looking to hold support around the 50 day moving averages. We are still way above the 200 day moving average. We can see that it keeps getting reject at the support zone at 31.40 quite nicely, looking like we will close with green candle above support, between the current channel.
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WEED confirms 3rd point on temp uptrend.As we can see, WEED keeps tapping that new upward trend line quite nicely, leaving us with a third point of confirmation on our temporary upward trend line, indicated by dotted green. This however, brings us closer to a possible ascending wedge forming. After making a significant rally today, you can see that we touched the previously drawn resistance at 33.90, pulled back and now holding as I write this. So far we have been able to keep above our EMA200 very nicely, so will most likely close on the resistance line, let's see if we can turn it into support folks!
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ACB crosses the upward trend line, can it reverse?We have closed below the upward trend line, and out of the falling wedge. The weakness of the reaction rally foreshadowed the sharpness of the decline that followed. If we cannot hold support at 9.00 and start to form a reversal. If not, we will most likely test 8.50. Today hit support and got rejected twice, Will this be a reversal or will it continue to test lower?
Canopy Growth rising while others are fallingCanopy Growth rising while Aurora and Aphria are falling.
This is not a good sign for WEED.
Will LEAF cross the upward trend?MedAs we can see, TSX:LEAF is approaching the wedge, where the upward trend line meets the current downward. There is where it will have to find support. The drop after the hearing that nearly lost, didn't help the situation. Hopefully we can see a reversal at that point.
Aurora bounced off resistance, but faces heavy resistance.We can see that TSX:ACB just can't seem to keep volume or momentum. Although it had traced all the way back down to the .618 Fibonacci retrace, where it finally found some support and did a little bounce, but there is now heavy resistance it will have to face at 10.60. It is following the temporary downward trend line, indicated by the dotted green line, coming to a triangle where the upward trend line meets current support at ~9.57. We can confirm some new light support if the next couple candles close at somewhere around, or above 10.00.
New support and resistance zones for WEEDJust a quick update today, indicating some new support and resistance zones.
Support for WEED moving up.As we can see, TSX:WEED buyer volume opened strong and we have been able to turn the previous resistance line into support, after closing 5 times above the previous line on the 4H chart. That double re-test right before this jump into the next Fibonacci zone, created some seriously heavy support and falling below that any time soon will be unlikely unless something drastic happens. We did see a bit of a dip after breaking resistance, which is usual, but right now we are just consolidating along the 61.8% retrace and holding support nicely. If we don't re-test 32.50, let's see if we can work our way up to ~34.33.
Cronos GroupCronos is a great test-case for what happens when a Speculative OTC stock goes to the big time market. They shot up 30% in the days after it went from OTC to the NASDAQ on some HUGE volume.
I personally like Cronos a lot. Mike Gorenstein seems like an excellent CEO and they are setting themselves up really nicely in terms of the international picture.
HOWEVER. They haven't truly DONE anything yet, at least compared to the other big names in the Canadian cannabis industry.
In their most recent financial statement, their Q3FY17 revenue was C$1.3M with a YTD revenue of C$2.5M a SMALL FRACTION of even the less-than-popular MedReleaf who had a Q3FY17 sales of C$11.35M and FY17 of C$31.6M
I guess what I am ultimately getting at is that, IMO, Cronos is grossly over valued in terms of Market Cap and I expect that to catch up to them sooner than later if they can't produce financial results on par with the rest of the industry.
I can imagine the share price breaking below the lower bounds of the triangle, falling fairly sharply to the Weekly 9EMA and potentially even correcting further.
Just my $.02
Crayon sketch of Cannabis Wheaton graphs and forward projectionsIve been invested in the Canadian marijuana sector for just over a year and a half and have had great overall success but most importantly learned A LOT along the way. Weve got a HUGE catalyst coming up in the Canadian Recreational Legalization slated for August 2018 and I for one do not want to be waiting on the sidelines!
This is just a VERY rough sketch of what I believe could be very much possible in the coming 6 months before true Canadian recreational legalization. I think that this sort of pattern is potentially VERY possible across the whole sector, but Cannabis Wheaton is an interesting business model that relies heavily on the production of its "subsidiaries."
I think that were coming up on another mini-mania where people who've invested in the sector in the past and bailed will be looking to get back in before the next boom. As with all investing, we are relying on people being late, dragging their feet and being indecisive in order to sell the stocks weve purchased earlier to them much higher.
As you can see, weve already started to see the Daily 9EMA turn upwards and with a steady stream of good news from many of the holdings of CBW, I don't see us crashing and burning from here. CBW has its fingers in MANY strong LPs and with a Market Cap of ~$550M its upside potential is astronomical.
The following assumptions were made:
I expect to see approximately 10% increase in the peak of the 9EMA once more between now and the August medium-soft "Green Day." I also expect to see a strong bounce off the 100MA late June, early July before the final run-up. I believe we could then see a solid 30% increase from the peaks of the MA going into the final days of the legalization and then after that, all bets are really off. Things may continue or things may crash back down to the 100MA range. We will have to play that by ear as it come.
Feel free to comment about your thoughts. Again, this is a VERY rough estimate of what it COULD look like but based on how the industry as run before, I think its very much in the realm of possiblities.
Good luck and HAVE FUN!
CRON bounces off support hard.After taking a tumble, hoping for it a bit sooner, we can see that TSXV:CRON has bounced off support just north of the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace. This and strong buyer volume, leading to a strong close at +12.41%, with a green candle with no top shadow. There may be a bit of resistance and possibly slight pullback at ~11.74, but if volume stays the way it does, I can't see it being a problem. What we would like to see happen is for it to pop above that resistance line and close in the next re-trace zone, allowing us to turn the resistance into support, consolidate along or above and possibly think about looking at a new uptrend.
Aurora didn't even get high and still needs support.Aurora didn't get as high as the other stocks, rather ending the last few days in the red. Forcing me to remove the previous support I was worried about, as well as the possible new upward trend line, replacing it with a dotted green temp downtrend line. It didn't recover well from that broken neck. There wasn't much of a shadow and the candle closed almost full red, indicating that we may still be headed in that direction. We will probably see 10.80 and possibly 10.50, as we closed below all three MACD's according to Bill Williams.
Today WEED closed at +4.20%. Not only is that hilarious, but it is a step in the right direction for sure. We tried to smoke our way past resistance, but it looks as though we couldn't quite do it, stumbling back down into the support channel. Confirmation above the MACD's on Monday will allow is to move the support up to 31.40 and possibly 31.85 if it opens bullish. That huge red shadow on the closing candle is something that we should look out for and may lead to a re-test of ~31.05, but there is some very good support as we have confirmed twice strong at that line, as you can see by my beautiful chicken scratch black circles. Hopefully it took everything the bears had to keep us blow that resistance level, and we can start to increase our positions.
New heavy support, upward consolidation.On this Friday's chart, you can see that we have bounced off the light support line and closed above to a nice little upward consolidation right in the middle of the channel. The main support at 18.66 is now confirmed as heavy support. Today's final candle closed with a slight green hammer, which could indicate a positive Monday open, taking us towards 18.69. If we can't bring in some volume however, this could turn into a giant bull flag, and stop loss should be in place at ~18.70.
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VFF Healthy consolidation. No matter how fundamentally strong VFF Is and how solid their execution is , the overall volatility and psychology of the cannabis markets will effect share price.
Personally I believe VFF to be very well positioned, in a strong position financially and their operational plans are on track for 2018 and 2019.
Short term VFF is in for a tough battle up, overall bulls seem to be exhausted and the bears have been exerting some serious selling pressure both on VFF as an individual stock and the Canadian cannabis market as a whole.
From a technical analysis standpoint VFF has immense potential to retrace back to previous highs and maintain them, this would require the bulls to pick up steam.
I'm looking for industry wide catalysts and also VFF specific catalysts to move this stock. My time frame for the retracement back to $8.50+ is 2 months
Time to WEED out the bears.So as we can see, there was a nice positive consolidation between the current support and resistance channel, with quite strong buyer volume all day long. This has formed somewhat of a bull flag. There is a good possibility that we will re-test resistance again, however, this is somewhat necessary to confirm the third point for a new possible upward trend line. There was zero green shadow on the closing candle, with high green volume. Tomorrow will probably push above resistance, but as I said, may not close above. If it closes into the 78.6% retrace, we will be inherently safe at 31.00.
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Broke my neck.. looking for some support.Stocks are the only time breaking your neck can be a good thing. But it is usually scary for a bit afterwards. Some big volume came in and sent us shooting right past the 78.6% retrace, but right back down again as volume petered off and we look for support. Today did close with a minuscule green candle, sporting a small shadow. This could mean we might test the somewhat weak support level at 11.80, possibly falling where the MACD13 hits this line. If it goes below there, we are most likely going to test ~10.90 lightly. Let's hope it bounces off current support, consolidates along the 78.6% as it re-tests the zone it shot past earlier, and then up towards 13.10.
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