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BTC Long-Term Outlook/Analysis + Life GoalsI've charted this since last year, maybe since May, idk. It shows two possible directions depending on what structure breaks. Well, it broke Market Structure towards the upside, and has been following the price path that I laid out almost to a T/tee/tea(whatever). So yeah. It just might follow it, or it might not and just straight up dumps on the higher timeframe, but that's unlikely? Like, what could cause a worldwide massive sell off that would plummet the BTC price? Well, of course, if the people and organizations that hold the massive BTC wallets would just randomly sell off their holdings. That would crash BTC. But why would they do that? So, in the end, my point is, if you think about it... The dollar and current worldwide economy is crashing... so where do they turn to? Bitcoin. Not gold, not USD, but Bitcoin. I think gold is also a "stablecoin", something you can rely on to hold value. I think, going forward, I would like to keep accumulating bitcoin and gold, when I have the money to accumulate. My goal in my financial life would be, to keep accumulating cash daily(through business, work, and trading), and keep DCA'ing into Bitcoin and Gold regardless of the market.
by HaribonALT
AUDCHF - Looking For Buy Setups ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. AUDCHF has been overall bullish trading inside the rising wedge pattern in blue, and it is currently retesting the lower trendline. Moreover, the zone 0.59 is a strong demand. 🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue demand and lower blue trendline. As per my trading style: As AUDCHF is sitting around the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
9
VIX/VVIX Divergence before large drawdownsJust happened to be playing with a few things on tradingview today, thinking of new ways to identify trade opportunities. I often have to keep reminding myself to zoom out to see the bigger picture. This is one of those instances where I might have stumbled upon something useful for very long term trade trends. As many know, VIX is an extremely useful indicator of market sentiment, it also signifies part of what makes up extrinsic value of options contracts. On the longer term time frame, you can see in a bull market volatility slowly compressing lower and lower. Lower highs, lower lows. Eventually, that trend starts to reverse as more and more large players maybe begin to take profits and go short, and more options hedging happen towards the downside. VVIX is a further still derivative of that. It's the measure of volatility of volatility. What I did today was take VIX and divide it by VVIX and see what pattern emerged. At a glance, it's not far off VIX by itself, but, I did notice that weeks or even a couple months before a large market downmove, it gives a little more advance warning that a big sell off was imminent. A solid warning is the lowest low followed by two higher lows, as seen here: If I instead plot VIX by itself, you see a double, maybe triple bottom at near enough the same low before you get a higher low. In the case of the second half of 2018, there actually wasn't an advanced warning at all: But, what VIX by itself does show, that VIX/VVIX did not, is a lower high when the market found bottom in October/November 2022. VIX showed a lower high, VIX/VVIX shows the highest high at that point. So, always worth glancing at both on a long term chart if you're looking for very long term bets on the market and trying what normally is considered a fool's errand to call the tops and bottoms of every bear and bull cycle. It might still be a fool's errand, but maybe this helps some of us get a little closer to being able to pull that off. With that being said, we have just set a new low in both VIX and VIX/VVIX for the year, even though we just had a down week (6/20-23/2023), I'm not convinced we stay down for long until maybe I see such a pattern appear again with higher lows appearing in VIX/VVIX.
TVC:VIX
by dieseldub
👻The Movers and Shakers: Meet the Big Forex Players👻 🍀The forex market is a dynamic and complex marketplace, with billions of dollars changing hands every day. At the center of this volatile financial landscape are a handful of key players who wield immense power and influence over the direction of global currencies. In this article, we'll introduce you to some of the biggest and most influential forex market players. 🌸The Central Banks: "We set the tone for the entire forex market." Perhaps the most important forex market players are the world's central banks. These powerful institutions have the ability to control the supply and demand of their respective currencies, through interest rate policies and other monetary maneuvers. Whenever a central bank makes a move, traders around the world sit up and take notice. 🌺The Big Banks: "We are the gatekeepers of the forex market." Big banks are another major group of forex market players, and they play a critical role in providing liquidity to the market itself. These institutions act as intermediaries, buying and selling currencies on behalf of their clients and helping to facilitate trades between different market players. 🌼Hedge Funds and Trading Firms: "We thrive on volatility and uncertainty." Hedge funds and trading firms are a relatively new entrant to the forex market, but they have quickly become some of the most important players. These firms are often staffed by experienced traders and analysts who use complex algorithms and trading strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements. 🌹In conclusion, the forex market is a complex and ever-evolving landscape, but understanding the key players involved can help investors and traders make more informed decisions. Whether you're following the moves of central banks, working with big banks, or leveraging the insights of hedge funds and trading firms, the forex market is full of opportunities for those who are willing to take the risk. Please cheer me up with a like and a nice comment😸❤️ Please, support my work with like and comment! Love you, my dear followers!👩‍💻🌸
Education
by AnabelSignals
7
Bitcoin Halving Fib EstimationHere we're dealing with fib levels derived from macro low & high price levels, specifically covering historic ATH levels. Log scale on because we put emphasis on chart-based A/D in percentages. Identifying critical points of fractal starting from times of eye-catching volatility and perceptible cycles. We start with fib coverage of ATHs chronologically: 1st pair interconnected: Added layer of 2nd pair interconnected: Covid low - current ATH interconnectedness: Zeroing in -77% drop: Since we care about reducing subjectiveness in Fractal Analysis, we must place Fibonacci Channels on pin point accuracy (0;1). It is done so because of various concepts considering irrational market, uncertainty and assumption that nobody can be always right predicting market with regular TA. Since popular TA is already used among millions of traders, we definitely can't be competitive if we stick to common knowledge of standard wave counts, etc. Fractal analysis summarizes collective market in terms of interconnectedness of the whole structure with composite short and long term cycles. Here we care about if the Golden Rule behind the waves allows for any desired move. Since human nature and decision making even outside of trading is determined by golden rule (bench experiment, DNA, proportion of body and organs). Knowing that Fibs are pleasing proportion for a consciousness. We can use this rule against the market since we're dealing with mass consciousness. Activity of which will draw patterns in respect to those proportions anyway. So our task is to expose the levels derived from actual structure to which price has reacted throughout the history. That way fibonacci is tuned into the chaotic nature of the market, hence-fore it is capable of determining key price levels of support and resistance without use of subjective measurements. It doesn't yet mean this is the only tools I use for trading. This just something I consider for long-term perspective derived from historic structure. Just like in QM, we can't tell the exact location of particle, but we can tell the probability where it most likely might end up. In FA probability of levels is priced at fibs.
Editors' picks
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by fract
167
🔥 Bitcoin's Most Important Support In 2023 Has FailedAs of yesterday, Bitcoin has fallen through the most important support/resistance level of 2023. This area was a massive resistance during both the late bear market of 2022 and the Q1 bull market of 2023. In my view, it's more likely than not that the 2023 top is in and that we're going to see more bearish pressure for the remainder of 2023. Not sure yet if we're going to see new bear market lows, but 20,000 is definitely on the table. Stocks are severely overbought and a correction is due. The interest rate decision has had a negative reception thus far (see analysis below), so BTC will likely sell off during this period. Do you think the 2023 high is in? Share your thoughts 🙏
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by FieryTrading
3
The Roller Coaster is always a Bumpy ride 🎢The Market can feed everyone but it's not not the market's duty. The market's duty is to provide a playground for a fair auction to take place. The conditions and the rules at the playgorund change from time to time but principles never cease to exist. The market needs liquidity to trend and it's the losing trader's emotion that fuels that. The market will achieve it's own goals just as mother nature and the dragon of time will eat us all. The market is a neutral entity and not one of us as participants are immune to it's wrath. Respect the market as it can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Pay close attention to money management and/or Position sizing because it will help you attain your goals. With all that said I have outlined my favorite level's on the chart. There are traders buying the high and the market will not make it easy on them. Or maybe the market breaks everything like the night king in Game of thrones. All you should do is take good risk/reward ideas. Create a system suited towards your personalities and inclinations. Orient yourself to what is most comfortable but be pro-active with your entries. Cut your losses short and let you profits run. Don't cut your winners just because you want to be right about the direction. Pay yourself for the time you spend in front of the screen. I have other obligations but the way I would go about trading interest rates would be to wait 1Hr after the news. Once the market has decided the direction, I lower my position size and follow my system's entry technique for trading with momentum. Additionally, If the market reacts off one of my level's I will anticipate a double top/double bottom. Safe Trading.
Short
by ShrewdCatfx
Trading Mindset: The Winning Edge!In the world of trading, strategy, and market knowledge are typically seen as the twin pillars of success. However, this is only part of the picture. The psychological aspect of trading is often overlooked but can be equally, if not more, influential in shaping trading outcomes. This component involves understanding and managing the emotions, biases, and mental states that can impact trading decisions. Emotional decision-making can lead to costly mistakes, such as panic selling during market dips or holding onto a losing trade for too long out of hope or fear. Therefore, it is crucial to cultivate a clear, disciplined mindset for more profitable and consistent trading outcomes. This tutorial will delve into the psychological landscape of trading, providing valuable insights and practical tips to master your mind and, consequently, the market. Common Psychological Traps in Trading There are several psychological traps that traders can fall into, which can seriously undermine their trading performance. One of these traps is overconfidence. After a streak of successful trades, it's easy to start feeling invincible, which can lead to riskier trading behaviors and impulsive decisions. Fear and greed are two more emotions that often dictate trading decisions. They are the key drivers behind market trends and can lead to significant financial losses if not managed properly. The fear of missing out (FOMO) can push traders into hasty, poorly thought-out trades, while greed can create a reluctance to sell even when all signs point to a market downturn. Another common psychological pitfall is anchoring. This occurs when a trader becomes fixated on specific price points or values, which can distort their perception of a security's true value and hinder rational decision-making. Understanding Your Trading Emotions To manage your trading emotions effectively, you first need to understand them. One practical way to do this is by keeping a trading journal. Besides recording your trades and their outcomes, this journal should also note down your emotions and thoughts at the time of each trade. Over time, you may start to see patterns in how your emotions affect your trading decisions. Knowing your risk tolerance is another crucial factor. Each trader has a different level of comfort when it comes to taking risks, and understanding this can significantly shape your trading strategy. A risk-averse trader might prefer more stable assets, while a risk-tolerant one might be comfortable with higher volatility. Strategies for Managing Trading Emotions Being in the right mental state before you start trading is paramount. Developing a pre-trade routine that helps you calm down and focus can prepare you for the trading day ahead. This routine could include activities like meditating, exercising, or going over the latest market news and your trading plan for the day. Having a clear trading plan can also provide a solid foundation for managing your emotions. This plan should outline your strategy, including risk management tactics, potential entry and exit points, and your objectives for each trade. It serves as a roadmap and can keep you grounded when market volatility triggers emotional responses. In addition, learning stress management techniques can be invaluable in trading, a field often fraught with stress. Taking regular breaks, deep breathing exercises, and ensuring you have a balanced lifestyle outside of trading can help maintain your mental equilibrium. Conclusion and Further Reading Trading psychology is a vast and complex field, but understanding its fundamental principles can drastically improve your trading performance. By being aware of the common psychological traps, understanding your own emotions and risk tolerance, and employing effective strategies to manage your trading emotions, you can make more informed and profitable trading decisions. Continuous learning and emotional self-awareness are keys to successful trading. There are numerous resources available for those who want to delve deeper into trading psychology, risk management, and market analysis. While the journey to master your trading psychology can be challenging, the potential rewards - improved trading outcomes and personal growth - are well worth the effort.
Education
by ShawnMCR
4
ETH - Still Stuck 📦Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. As per my last analysis (attached on the chart), ETH rejected the lower bound of the flat rising broadening wedge and traded higher to reject the upper bound again. 🏹 As per my trading style , we will be trading the range UNLESS it is broken upward or downward. 📈 As ETH approaches the blue support again , we will be looking for short-term buy setups. For the bulls to take over medium-term, we need a break above the red zone. 📉 In parallel , if as ETH approaches the red resistance, we will be looking for short-term sell setups. And if ETH breaks below the blue zone, we will be expecting further bearish movement till the 1700 daily support. 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
by TheSignalyst
22
SPY OUTLOOK 06/05 - 06/09Last week, the debt ceiling lift was signed into law which saved the US from defaulting. All of our upside targets hit last week, and the market reacted favorably with a green week up +3.2%. With not much on the economic calendar, I doubt we move much this week, but expectations of a soft landing can keep bulls in control. Technical Analysis: This week AMEX:SPY broke out to the upside of the megaphone we were watching since April. We are at a critical point in the market as we tested the top of a macro trendline dating back from September 2022. Although I can see the market moving higher in the short term, I’d expect some corrective action in the coming weeks. Even if we head higher, we will need to build some levels of support and resistance if we do head higher. Bulls will want to hold price above the megaphone breakout. If price can continue above last week’s high 428.74, our next level above is 429.57, with not much resistance until 433. What is more likely this week is some sort of healthy pullback before we head higher. I can see SPY coming down to test the daily gap made on Friday (422.92-423.95). If this doesn’t hold, we have a golden pocket from 420-421 where we can look for buyers to step in. Bears will want to invalidate the golden pocket and control price action under last week’s point of control at 419. Upside Targets: 428.74 → 429.57→ 433.07 → 436.10 → 438.08 Extended: 441.21 Downside Targets: 425.14 → 423.95 → 422.92 → 421.02 → 419.00 Extended: 416.22
AMEX:SPY
by peterjames_6
A Comprehensive Guide to Picking Winning StocksHello, Investing in the stock market can be a profitable endeavour if approached with the right strategies. Picking winning stocks requires a thorough analysis of various factors, including understanding the company, assessing the market environment, evaluating opportunities and threats, identifying company weaknesses, and setting realistic targets. Today we aim to provide a step-by-step guide on how to effectively select stocks that have the potential to generate favorable returns. Understand what the company does: Before investing in a stock, it is crucial to have a clear understanding of the company's business model, products or services, and its competitive advantages. Analysing financial statements, annual reports, and researching the company's history and industry can provide insights into its operations, revenue streams, and potential for growth. Look at its stock price trend: Evaluating the stock price trend is essential to identify patterns and potential entry or exit points. Technical analysis tools such as moving averages, support and resistance levels, and chart patterns can assist in identifying trends, price reversals, and market sentiment. Combining technical analysis with fundamental analysis provides a more comprehensive view of the stock's potential. Understand the market environment: Assessing the overall market environment is crucial as it can significantly impact stock performance. Factors such as economic indicators, industry trends, interest rates, and geopolitical events should be considered. A bull market generally favors overall stock performance, while a bear market presents more challenges. It is important to align investment decisions with the prevailing market conditions. Understand the opportunities ahead: Identifying potential growth opportunities is vital to selecting winning stocks. Researching industry trends, technological advancements, new product launches, or expansion plans can provide insights into a company's growth prospects. Additionally, evaluating the company's competitive positioning and its ability to capitalize on emerging opportunities can help assess its long-term potential. Understand the threats: Identifying potential threats or risks is equally important in picking winning stocks. This involves analyzing factors such as competitive landscape, regulatory changes, disruptive technologies, and potential challenges the company may face. Evaluating a company's risk management strategies and its ability to adapt to changing market conditions is crucial in assessing its resilience. Discover company weaknesses: Conducting a thorough analysis of a company's financials, including its balance sheet, income statement, and cash flow statement, can reveal weaknesses and areas of concern. High debt levels, declining revenues, or low-profit margins may indicate underlying issues. Additionally, analyzing key performance indicators, management quality, and corporate governance can provide valuable insights into a company's overall health. Set the target for the company stock: Setting a realistic target price for the company's stock helps determine its investment potential. This involves evaluating the company's historical valuation metrics, such as price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio, in comparison to its industry peers. Consider both short-term and long-term factors, such as earnings growth projections and market sentiment, while setting a target price. Decide whether it is a good company to buy or not: After evaluating all the above factors, it is essential to make an informed decision on whether to buy the stock. Consider the company's fundamental strengths, growth prospects, competitive advantages, and valuation metrics. It is advisable to diversify the investment portfolio and not rely solely on one stock. Consulting with a financial advisor or conducting further research can provide additional perspectives before making a final investment decision. I wish you the best in your investment journey! Info about the company PDD Holdings can be interrogated here investor.pddholdings.com
NASDAQ:PDDEducation
by thesharkke
U.S. National Debt U.S. default A topic that has been stirring people's minds in recent months is the U.S. debt ceiling. The general public is asking the question: "Will the national debt ceiling be raised or will the U.S. default?" The national debt is the result of the government's financial borrowing to cover the budget deficit. And, as you might have guessed, these borrowings must be paid for. For the last ~100 years, the U.S. has existed on borrowed capital by placing Treasury bonds. And there is a purely nominal borrowing limit, which in fact America has raised 45 times in the last 40 years so that it can borrow more and more and more. And if they don't, the Treasury will no longer be able to issue debt securities and will only have to cover their expenses with cash balances from their balance sheet. Spoiler: no money to pay off your own debt 💡Logical conclusion. The national debt ceiling will be raised anyway, and all the current discussions have only political overtones and have nothing to do with the real economic model of the states. Consequently, no teeth-grinding default and collapse of the global financial system should be expected How will the increase in state debt affect the cryptocurrency market? -If you're interested, put + www.usdebtclock.org Best regards EXCAVO
FRED:GFDEBTNLong
by EXCAVO
29
🔥 CAKE = 💀Last month I made an analysis on CAKE and the fact that it was selling off severely. My 2.50 support was the last hope for the bulls, which inevitably failed. Fast forward to today, and we're trading at 1.50, a truly abysmal feat. Short-sellers are happy, stakers and investors are either exiting in droves or seeing their funds evaporate. I think that there's little hope for CAKE to ever recover from this. Unless they make some drastic changes to the tokenomics of this token, I don't see it ever taking off again. Keep in mind that this is normal for a lot of tokens. The good ones survive the bear market, the bad ones die. We might see some kind of pump occurring over the next year, but I'd be surprised if this token will go above 3.00 ever again.
Short
by FieryTrading
9
Bitcoin Bearish for rest of year. Buy in DecemberAs much as I love BTC for a insurance policy against government debt, it is still subject to human nature. Fear and Greed. And with proxy exposure to the function of all financial markets, liquidity. I want to believe that we have seen the worst that is to come for now but at this point it feels like sticking my head in the sand. How can we not see a correction in the markets that is one for the history books after the swings we have experienced over the last few years? Or was there just SO much liquidity in the system at basically 0% interest rates for a decade that even after an increase of FED fund rates (10 fold of anything we have seen, ever) we have just made up for lost time and its now time to carry on as per schedule. The trade: - Short any pops (ie retest of trendline) until later this year -All in again in Nov 2023 to Feb 2024 (debt crises should have sorted itself out by then)
INDEX:BTCUSDShort
by merchtank19