Market
Here's my line. When pullback bottom is confirmed, re-enter.Traders,
It's been a few weeks since I have done a video update. Hopefully, you all have been following my non-video posts too. I have been making regular posts in attempts to keep you all up to speed on the latest market price action.
In this video, I will show you the line that caused me to sell. This does not mean I have now gone bearish on the market. On the contrary, I am still overall bullish longer term. However, the market is definitely experiencing a bit of a pullback here due to some new inflation data causing more uncertainty. Once this pullback has confirmed a bottom, I will once again look to re-enter my longs. I will show you some of the levels I am targeting on Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Ripple near the end of the video.
Best,
Stew
EU IdeaEu recently grabbed a lot of liquidity, it had plenty of room to move up to resistance on LTF, but will likely take a move to the downside after. marked below are extension points you could ude for a possible sell and the liquidity lines above are possible profit targets, please trade at your own risk and include your own analysis in congruence with mine.
UUUU entry - sub $6Energy Fuels (UUUU) is a Uranium and Vanadium mining company that is domestically sourced low carbon renewable energy fuel (U( and steel strengthener (V2O5).
* Improving earnings - nearing profitability
* Domestic contract growth
* By-product Vanadium is also in demand - steel recycling
* Energy market can not rely on oil and LNG alone
* MFI crossing 50% and consolidation and buying will increase scarcity
* CCI momentum hitting bottom
Entry this week after dropping below $6 with limit buys and retracing back to 238 fib level. Will watch for drop to full retrace to $4.90 (exit before) or a more likely climb to 500 retracement at $8 and watch for break through or more consolidation.
Own opinions of energy market - come to own conclusions, or comments here welcomed. Like to hear what others in energy market have to say. Warm winter LNG will get us through, what stocks are you loving for 2023?
@Pokethebear
@rudcharts
Xauusd using market structure starategy 23/12/2022I'm using the market structure and supply-demand strategy in 1-hour timeframe in gold. my opinion regarding this state is to wait for the confirmation of the break supply zone and wait for the pullback rather than open it when the break time for minimalizing the risk
BTC - Critical Period / Zone ahead of NFP ❗️Greetings, TradingView Family! This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📌 After breaking below the significant round number of 30,000 and a major low, BTC has exhibited a predominantly bearish trend, forming lower lows and lower highs.
In the past, BTC broke two major lows, which were marked in gray on the chart.
📉 If the current last low is breached with an H4 candle closing below 28,700, it is likely to trigger further bearish movement, potentially leading to a decline towards 27,500.
📈 To regain control, the bulls must achieve a strong momentum candle close above the key level of 30,000. Such a move could potentially shift market sentiment in favor of the bulls and indicate a possible trend reversal.
📚 Always remember to follow your trading plan when it comes to entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
Remember, all strategies are good if managed properly!
~Rich
The Fall of the Titans: Crypto Downtrend Unfolding on the 4hAre we witnessing the Fall of the Titans? Is crypto, the digital currency titan that has been dominating the financial landscape for over a decade now, showing signs of slowing down? The recent data on the 4h chart reveals an unfolding story - a Crypto Downtrend that may have significant implications for investors and enthusiasts alike.
In this modern era of finance, cryptocurrencies have morphed from being an underground secret of the tech world into an open powerhouse that shapes financial markets globally. However, they have not been without their share of unpredictability and turbulence. The recent activity on the 4h chart, particularly, paints a picture of a potential shift in momentum - a Crypto Downtrend.
Understanding The 4h Chart
Before we delve into the specificities, it's crucial to understand what a 4h chart signifies. The 4h chart, as the name implies, represents price movements over 4-hour periods. Traders often use this intermediate timeframe to discern the medium-term trends in the crypto market, which allows them to plan their strategies accordingly. The 4h chart gives a more comprehensive view of market dynamics as compared to the shorter timeframes, without getting drowned in the long-term noise of the daily or weekly charts.
Indicators of a Crypto Downtrend
In crypto trading, several indicators suggest a potential downtrend. Key among them are lower highs and lower lows, which hint at a declining price momentum. Other indicators such as the moving averages, the Relative Strength Index (RSI), and the MACD can further support these observations.
In the current scenario, the 4h chart shows a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, which is a tell-tale sign of a Crypto Downtrend. Additionally, the moving averages have seen a bearish crossover, while the RSI is hovering in the lower regions. These all point to a potential reversal of the bullish trend we've been experiencing.
Impact of the Crypto Downtrend
This potential Crypto Downtrend has significant implications. For one, it indicates a period of price correction, where the overvalued prices return to more realistic levels. While this could be a cause of worry for some investors, it could present an opportunity for others.
For investors who have been waiting on the sidelines, this could be their chance to get in, to buy the dip. On the contrary, those who are heavily invested might want to brace themselves for potential losses, or consider hedging their investments.
The Way Forward
While the current observations from the 4h chart do point towards a Crypto Downtrend, it is essential to remember that the world of cryptocurrencies is known for its volatility. In the world of crypto, trends can reverse quickly and unexpectedly. Therefore, investors and traders should always stay vigilant and responsive to the changing market dynamics.
Also, it's important to note that a downtrend isn't necessarily a bad thing. In fact, it can serve as a healthy correction in an otherwise overheated market, paving the way for sustainable growth in the long run.
So, is this the fall of the digital titans, or merely a small bump in the road? Only time will tell. For now, though, it’s a good time to stay alert, plan your strategies, and tread with caution in the fascinating world of crypto.
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This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always do your research and consult with a professional before making any investment decisions. Crypto trading involves risk and is not suitable for all investors.
CADCHF MOVEMENTUsing support and resistance
The price may move to 0.65000 for market correction. after that the price may move towards 1st resistance at 0.65944 and if resistance breaks then we can expect a small bull run till 2nd resistsance 0.68000. There is a highly chance to buy at near to 0.65000 if market dones a correction and we can expect a good move here in upward direction because of support at 0.65000.
Harmonic + OB + IMB + OTE: Failed1. I used the Previous OTE ZONE as my entry area when it has already been tapped a few times...
2. I did not plot a fib ret on the latest swing low/high for some reason despite there being a ChoCh present.
One thing to note about this though, is that the FIBRET is Reversed. Seeing the non-reversed version meant there was no OB + OTE confluence anywhere.
Maybe that's why I didn't bother with it.
Here's the thing though.. and what is probably a crucial information that I wouldn't have learned if I didn't lose this trade:
Putting fibret on reverse, meant it confluenced with the FVG.
So what I've learned:
1. OTE + FVG MIGHT JUST BE AS VIABLE AS OTE + OB.
2.Try out both reversed and non-reversed versions of fib ret. There might be a confluence you are not seeing.
ALSO, VERY IMPORTANT NOTE:
If price left your entry point, and reached target take profit (liquidity, fvg, s/r levels, etc) first...
Close the trade.
Reaching the target take profit means the market maker move is done.
It means the intention has been fulfilled, and it's time to make a new price action setup.
So the next time it reaches your target entry point, the price has a higher chance of not bouncing, because price is already moving with different intent.
CANCEL COMPLETED TRADES.
SAVE YOUR CAPITAL.
DON'T GIVE IT UP EASILY.
XRP break it?since the 2016-2017 fractal, we can see that it is repeating the same movement, added to the so-called stagflation that economists talk about, I can believe that the price will be sideways all this time, unless it approaches resistance and breakout or its support and let's also see a strong movement. Watch out for bankruptcy and buy/sell better stay out and watch out..
BTC Long-Term Outlook/Analysis + Life GoalsI've charted this since last year, maybe since May, idk.
It shows two possible directions depending on what structure breaks.
Well, it broke Market Structure towards the upside, and has been following the price path that I laid out almost to a T/tee/tea(whatever).
So yeah. It just might follow it, or it might not and just straight up dumps on the higher timeframe, but that's unlikely?
Like, what could cause a worldwide massive sell off that would plummet the BTC price?
Well, of course, if the people and organizations that hold the massive BTC wallets would just randomly sell off their holdings. That would crash BTC.
But why would they do that?
So, in the end, my point is, if you think about it...
The dollar and current worldwide economy is crashing... so where do they turn to?
Bitcoin.
Not gold, not USD, but Bitcoin.
I think gold is also a "stablecoin", something you can rely on to hold value.
I think, going forward, I would like to keep accumulating bitcoin and gold, when I have the money to accumulate.
My goal in my financial life would be, to keep accumulating cash daily(through business, work, and trading), and keep DCA'ing into Bitcoin and Gold regardless of the market.
AUDCHF - Looking For Buy Setups ❗️Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
AUDCHF has been overall bullish trading inside the rising wedge pattern in blue, and it is currently retesting the lower trendline.
Moreover, the zone 0.59 is a strong demand.
🏹 So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the blue demand and lower blue trendline.
As per my trading style:
As AUDCHF is sitting around the purple circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
VIX/VVIX Divergence before large drawdownsJust happened to be playing with a few things on tradingview today, thinking of new ways to identify trade opportunities. I often have to keep reminding myself to zoom out to see the bigger picture. This is one of those instances where I might have stumbled upon something useful for very long term trade trends.
As many know, VIX is an extremely useful indicator of market sentiment, it also signifies part of what makes up extrinsic value of options contracts. On the longer term time frame, you can see in a bull market volatility slowly compressing lower and lower. Lower highs, lower lows. Eventually, that trend starts to reverse as more and more large players maybe begin to take profits and go short, and more options hedging happen towards the downside.
VVIX is a further still derivative of that. It's the measure of volatility of volatility. What I did today was take VIX and divide it by VVIX and see what pattern emerged. At a glance, it's not far off VIX by itself, but, I did notice that weeks or even a couple months before a large market downmove, it gives a little more advance warning that a big sell off was imminent. A solid warning is the lowest low followed by two higher lows, as seen here:
If I instead plot VIX by itself, you see a double, maybe triple bottom at near enough the same low before you get a higher low. In the case of the second half of 2018, there actually wasn't an advanced warning at all:
But, what VIX by itself does show, that VIX/VVIX did not, is a lower high when the market found bottom in October/November 2022. VIX showed a lower high, VIX/VVIX shows the highest high at that point. So, always worth glancing at both on a long term chart if you're looking for very long term bets on the market and trying what normally is considered a fool's errand to call the tops and bottoms of every bear and bull cycle.
It might still be a fool's errand, but maybe this helps some of us get a little closer to being able to pull that off.
With that being said, we have just set a new low in both VIX and VIX/VVIX for the year, even though we just had a down week (6/20-23/2023), I'm not convinced we stay down for long until maybe I see such a pattern appear again with higher lows appearing in VIX/VVIX.
Market Structure + Orderblock + Fibonacci Retracement = FailedMarket Structure + Orderblock + Fibonacci Retracement = Failed
Here's why:
Trendlines, S/R Levels, Chart & Candlestick Patterns are still relevant.
Trade could have worked. It passed all the other criteria (market structure downtrend + bearish fib ret ote zone + bearish ob).
It was just a right trade at the wrong level.
👻The Movers and Shakers: Meet the Big Forex Players👻
🍀The forex market is a dynamic and complex marketplace, with billions of dollars changing hands every day. At the center of this volatile financial landscape are a handful of key players who wield immense power and influence over the direction of global currencies. In this article, we'll introduce you to some of the biggest and most influential forex market players.
🌸The Central Banks: "We set the tone for the entire forex market."
Perhaps the most important forex market players are the world's central banks. These powerful institutions have the ability to control the supply and demand of their respective currencies, through interest rate policies and other monetary maneuvers. Whenever a central bank makes a move, traders around the world sit up and take notice.
🌺The Big Banks: "We are the gatekeepers of the forex market."
Big banks are another major group of forex market players, and they play a critical role in providing liquidity to the market itself. These institutions act as intermediaries, buying and selling currencies on behalf of their clients and helping to facilitate trades between different market players.
🌼Hedge Funds and Trading Firms: "We thrive on volatility and uncertainty."
Hedge funds and trading firms are a relatively new entrant to the forex market, but they have quickly become some of the most important players. These firms are often staffed by experienced traders and analysts who use complex algorithms and trading strategies to capitalize on short-term market movements.
🌹In conclusion, the forex market is a complex and ever-evolving landscape, but understanding the key players involved can help investors and traders make more informed decisions. Whether you're following the moves of central banks, working with big banks, or leveraging the insights of hedge funds and trading firms, the forex market is full of opportunities for those who are willing to take the risk.
Please cheer me up with a like and a nice comment😸❤️
Please, support my work with like and comment!
Love you, my dear followers!👩💻🌸
Bitcoin Halving Fib EstimationHere we're dealing with fib levels derived from macro low & high price levels, specifically covering historic ATH levels.
Log scale on because we put emphasis on chart-based A/D in percentages.
Identifying critical points of fractal starting from times of eye-catching volatility and perceptible cycles.
We start with fib coverage of ATHs chronologically:
1st pair interconnected:
Added layer of 2nd pair interconnected:
Covid low - current ATH interconnectedness:
Zeroing in -77% drop:
Since we care about reducing subjectiveness in Fractal Analysis, we must place Fibonacci Channels on pin point accuracy (0;1). It is done so because of various concepts considering irrational market, uncertainty and assumption that nobody can be always right predicting market with regular TA. Since popular TA is already used among millions of traders, we definitely can't be competitive if we stick to common knowledge of standard wave counts, etc.
Fractal analysis summarizes collective market in terms of interconnectedness of the whole structure with composite short and long term cycles. Here we care about if the Golden Rule behind the waves allows for any desired move.
Since human nature and decision making even outside of trading is determined by golden rule (bench experiment, DNA, proportion of body and organs). Knowing that Fibs are pleasing proportion for a consciousness. We can use this rule against the market since we're dealing with mass consciousness. Activity of which will draw patterns in respect to those proportions anyway. So our task is to expose the levels derived from actual structure to which price has reacted throughout the history.
That way fibonacci is tuned into the chaotic nature of the market, hence-fore it is capable of determining key price levels of support and resistance without use of subjective measurements.
It doesn't yet mean this is the only tools I use for trading. This just something I consider for long-term perspective derived from historic structure. Just like in QM, we can't tell the exact location of particle, but we can tell the probability where it most likely might end up. In FA probability of levels is priced at fibs.
🔥 Bitcoin's Most Important Support In 2023 Has FailedAs of yesterday, Bitcoin has fallen through the most important support/resistance level of 2023. This area was a massive resistance during both the late bear market of 2022 and the Q1 bull market of 2023.
In my view, it's more likely than not that the 2023 top is in and that we're going to see more bearish pressure for the remainder of 2023. Not sure yet if we're going to see new bear market lows, but 20,000 is definitely on the table.
Stocks are severely overbought and a correction is due. The interest rate decision has had a negative reception thus far (see analysis below), so BTC will likely sell off during this period.
Do you think the 2023 high is in? Share your thoughts 🙏
The Roller Coaster is always a Bumpy ride 🎢The Market can feed everyone but it's not not the market's duty. The market's duty is to provide a playground for a fair auction to take place. The conditions and the rules at the playgorund change from time to time but principles never cease to exist. The market needs liquidity to trend and it's the losing trader's emotion that fuels that. The market will achieve it's own goals just as mother nature and the dragon of time will eat us all. The market is a neutral entity and not one of us as participants are immune to it's wrath. Respect the market as it can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent. Pay close attention to money management and/or Position sizing because it will help you attain your goals.
With all that said I have outlined my favorite level's on the chart.
There are traders buying the high and the market will not make it easy on them.
Or maybe the market breaks everything like the night king in Game of thrones.
All you should do is take good risk/reward ideas. Create a system suited towards your
personalities and inclinations. Orient yourself to what is most comfortable but be pro-active with your
entries. Cut your losses short and let you profits run. Don't cut your winners just because you want to be right about the direction.
Pay yourself for the time you spend in front of the screen.
I have other obligations but the way I would go about trading interest rates would be to wait 1Hr after the news. Once the market has decided the direction, I lower my position size and follow my system's entry technique for trading with momentum. Additionally, If the market reacts off one of my level's I will anticipate a double top/double bottom. Safe Trading.
Trading Mindset: The Winning Edge!In the world of trading, strategy, and market knowledge are typically seen as the twin pillars of success. However, this is only part of the picture. The psychological aspect of trading is often overlooked but can be equally, if not more, influential in shaping trading outcomes. This component involves understanding and managing the emotions, biases, and mental states that can impact trading decisions. Emotional decision-making can lead to costly mistakes, such as panic selling during market dips or holding onto a losing trade for too long out of hope or fear. Therefore, it is crucial to cultivate a clear, disciplined mindset for more profitable and consistent trading outcomes. This tutorial will delve into the psychological landscape of trading, providing valuable insights and practical tips to master your mind and, consequently, the market.
Common Psychological Traps in Trading
There are several psychological traps that traders can fall into, which can seriously undermine their trading performance. One of these traps is overconfidence. After a streak of successful trades, it's easy to start feeling invincible, which can lead to riskier trading behaviors and impulsive decisions.
Fear and greed are two more emotions that often dictate trading decisions. They are the key drivers behind market trends and can lead to significant financial losses if not managed properly. The fear of missing out (FOMO) can push traders into hasty, poorly thought-out trades, while greed can create a reluctance to sell even when all signs point to a market downturn.
Another common psychological pitfall is anchoring. This occurs when a trader becomes fixated on specific price points or values, which can distort their perception of a security's true value and hinder rational decision-making.
Understanding Your Trading Emotions
To manage your trading emotions effectively, you first need to understand them. One practical way to do this is by keeping a trading journal. Besides recording your trades and their outcomes, this journal should also note down your emotions and thoughts at the time of each trade. Over time, you may start to see patterns in how your emotions affect your trading decisions.
Knowing your risk tolerance is another crucial factor. Each trader has a different level of comfort when it comes to taking risks, and understanding this can significantly shape your trading strategy. A risk-averse trader might prefer more stable assets, while a risk-tolerant one might be comfortable with higher volatility.
Strategies for Managing Trading Emotions
Being in the right mental state before you start trading is paramount. Developing a pre-trade routine that helps you calm down and focus can prepare you for the trading day ahead. This routine could include activities like meditating, exercising, or going over the latest market news and your trading plan for the day.
Having a clear trading plan can also provide a solid foundation for managing your emotions. This plan should outline your strategy, including risk management tactics, potential entry and exit points, and your objectives for each trade. It serves as a roadmap and can keep you grounded when market volatility triggers emotional responses.
In addition, learning stress management techniques can be invaluable in trading, a field often fraught with stress. Taking regular breaks, deep breathing exercises, and ensuring you have a balanced lifestyle outside of trading can help maintain your mental equilibrium.
Conclusion and Further Reading
Trading psychology is a vast and complex field, but understanding its fundamental principles can drastically improve your trading performance. By being aware of the common psychological traps, understanding your own emotions and risk tolerance, and employing effective strategies to manage your trading emotions, you can make more informed and profitable trading decisions.
Continuous learning and emotional self-awareness are keys to successful trading. There are numerous resources available for those who want to delve deeper into trading psychology, risk management, and market analysis. While the journey to master your trading psychology can be challenging, the potential rewards - improved trading outcomes and personal growth - are well worth the effort.
IXIC: A Time for CorrectionsSadly but truth, a healthy corrections to 12417 - 12428 shall appear on NASDAQ:IXIC
I do some calculations based on internal & external Fibonacci Retracements and found a potential corrections up to 8%, kindly beware on your steps ahead.
Be greedy is good, only when we enter a bloody market.
-AJ-
Avenue Supermarts (DMART) is at resistance levelWith reference to the attached chart, you can easily identify that DMART is at a resistance level and close below that line yesterday. Now it looks like DMART will again tank towards Rs 3300 level for Support level testing. You can also take advantage of it with the following levels:
Entry Below: Rs 3580
Target: Rs 3350
StopLoss: Rs 3670
Note: Please consult your Advisor or do your own analysis before taking any trade