Market
Volume spikes on down moves add to selling pressure.📉 BTCUSDT – 1H Chart Technical Outlook
🔍 Structure Insight:
Bitcoin is currently trading within a descending channel, forming lower highs and lower lows, indicating persistent bearish pressure. Price action appears compressed between key trendlines, hinting at an imminent breakout.
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🔻 Scenario 1: Bearish Breakdown (Primary Bias)
If BTC fails to hold above the lower boundary of the range, a decisive break below could trigger a sharp move toward the 103,650–103,000 demand zone. The structure supports continuation to the downside if the price rejects resistance again.
🧊 Bearish Confluence:
Price is unable to break above dynamic resistance.
Momentum remains weak near the mid-range.
Volume spikes on down moves add to selling pressure.
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🔼 Scenario 2: Bullish Breakout (Alternative View)
A breakout above the descending trendline and confirmation candle could flip bias short-term bullish. This would target the 105,400+ region as the next liquidity area.
⚡ Bullish Signs to Watch:
Break and retest above trendline resistance.
Bullish engulfing or breakout candle with volume.
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🔍 Key Levels to Monitor
Support: 103,650 / 103,000
Resistance: 105,000 / 105,400
Breakout Zones: Watch for clean breaks and retests outside the wedge pattern.
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📌 Conclusion:
BTC is coiling within a tightening range. The breakout direction will likely dictate the next short-term trend. Maintain flexibility — breakout confirmation is key before positioning.
🚨 Not financial advice — always DYOR before trading!
Price recently broke down from a descending wedge.📊 Gold (XAUUSD) – 1H Chart Analysis
Structure Overview:
Price recently broke down from a descending wedge/consolidation pattern after forming lower highs and lower lows — a classic sign of bearish pressure building up.
🔻 Bearish Breakout in Play:
The sharp move down through the wedge's lower boundary suggests strong momentum to the downside. This aligns with the previous rejection from the top of the falling channel.
🔮 Potential Scenarios:
1. Bearish Continuation (Primary Bias):
If price sustains below the wedge support and fails to reclaim the breakout zone, we could see a further decline toward lower support levels (as shown in the downward arrow).
Watch for possible reactions at 3350 → 3345 → 3340 zones.
2. Bullish Fakeout Recovery (Alternative):
If price quickly reclaims the broken trendline and forms a bullish engulfing or breakout structure, it could invalidate the breakdown, signaling a possible reversal and rally back up toward 3380+ (as indicated by the upward projection).
⚠️ Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 3350 / 3345 / 3340
Resistance: 3365 / 3380
Zone of interest: Retest of wedge breakdown area
📌 Insight:
The market has broken below the daily bullish FVG CE level, further supporting the bearish bias — but retests can trap sellers, so remain flexible.
ETH – Rounded Distribution Before the Punch Higher?What we’re seeing here is a potential fakeout setup within a value zone.
Notice the rounded top formation — looks bearish — but price refuses to break the low. This often sets the stage for a sharp reversal.
Structure Breakdown:
Volume profile shows acceptance in current range
Rounded top shape implies weakness — but no breakdown = trap potential
Price holds a higher low inside the range = absorption
Green box marks ideal long entry area — well-defined invalidation below
Bullish case:
We’re watching for that reclaim of the mid-level → quick push into the upper range
Target zone = 2,618 (clean inefficiency fill + local top)
Bearish trap scenario invalidated if price closes below red box (stop hunt level)
Strategy bias:
This is a compression-reversal trap — fake weakness to trap shorts, then launch.
Patience pays here — if it reclaims and consolidates at the mid, it’s time to ride.
📊 More setups like this, early in structure, are shared inside the account description. Tap in for the breakdowns.
BTC – Stop Hunt at the Edge of ValueThis is what a liquidity raid looks like.
Price just swept the bottom of the range, tapped into the low-volume zone (as seen on the volume profile), and reclaimed — classic sign of a trap sprung.
Key points:
The downtrend line labeled “comp” = compression — bulls forced to capitulate into a thin zone
High probability deviation with stop run and reclaim — this fuels the next move up
The green box shows risk-defined entry off the sweep low
Targeting the prior high: 106,787
Volume imbalance filled = no inefficiency above — price can now move cleanly
Execution mindset:
Trap spring → retrace into structure → expansion
Risk is clear, liquidity is engineered, structure remains
Late shorts just became the fuel.
Watch the reclaim of the box top. If that flips support, we ride momentum.
📈 For more setups like this — including pre-breakout traps — check the description in the profile.
They want AVAX to look weak down here Everyone’s staring at the recent drop like it’s collapse. I see rotation into discount. AVAX is tagging the 0.786 retracement (17.27) — the same level that Smart Money builds into before it reclaims value.
Breakdown of the move:
The range top at 26.86 marked the premium; we’ve now delivered deep into the 0.786
No displacement through the previous swing low — yet
Structure remains intact if 14.66 holds — anything above that is deliberate discount rebalancing, not failure
This is where liquidity collects before decisions are made.
Execution lens:
Accumulation zone: 17.27–14.66
If bulls defend this pocket, 20.76 (0.5 fib) is the first draw, then 22.20
Final delivery window sits between 22.20–23.98 — where late buyers chase
AVAX doesn’t need a narrative. Price is the narrative.
Watch this base. And if it holds — don’t act surprised when it’s 20+.
For more setups that map where, not when — check the profile description.
Most see capitulation. I see clean premium-to-discount deliveryPEPE just swept deep into the 0.786 retracement — right where most fear sets in. But Smart Money? This is where they reaccumulate. The structure isn't broken — it's resetting.
Here’s what the chart tells me:
Price dipped straight into the FVG + 0.786 (0.00000945) zone
That's the deepest discount before structural invalidation — exactly where Smart Money looks for reversal footprints
The upside draw sits cleanly at 0.00001194 (0.5 fib), with an extension possible toward 0.00001297 and even 0.00001424
This move down didn’t violate anything. It rebalanced prior inefficiency and opened the door for premium delivery.
Execution logic:
Accumulate within 0.00000945–0.00000918 (discount zone)
Invalidation: break below 0.00000758 closes the book on this setup
Targets: 0.00001194 → 0.00001297 → 0.00001424
The biggest moves don’t start when it feels safe. They start when it feels late.
For setups like this — built on logic, not luck — check the profile description. I trade where Smart Money trades.
Great Depression 2.0 Starting in 2030?Looking at the Dow Jones, we can see clear cycles forming on this index. I believe we could see one more major run on the Dow between now and 2030, followed by a repeat of the Great Depression. I could easily be wrong, but the charts suggest this is a very real possibility.
So, between now and our potential top in 2030, we have an opportunity to make a significant amount of money in markets like crypto.
As always, stay profitable.
– Dalin Anderson
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 18, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
💼 Business Inventories Flat in April
U.S. business inventories held steady in April, indicating stable consumer and wholesale demand. That suggests production won't need to cut sharply in the near term, supporting GDP outlook
🏭 Industrial Production Slips
Industrial output declined 0.2% in May, signaling ongoing weakness in factory activity amid less favorable global trade conditions .
🌐 Geopolitical Pressures Persist
Heightened tension in the Middle East continues to pressure risk assets. Investors remain focused on safe-haven flows into gold, Treasuries, and defensive equities, with analysts noting the risk backdrop remains tilted to the downside
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, June 18:
8:30 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May)
Measures new residential construction — leading indication of housing sector health.
8:30 AM ET – Initial Jobless Claims
Tracks the weekly count of new unemployment filings — useful for spotting early labor-market weakening.
2:00 PM ET – FOMC Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve is expected to hold steady. Market focus will be on any commentary that hints at future tightening or easing plans.
2:30 PM ET – Fed Chair Powell Press Conference
Investors will parse Powell’s remarks for guidance on rate paths, inflation trends, and economic risks.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Consult a licensed advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #housing #Fed #geo_risk #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 17, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 17, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📈 U.S. Retail Spending Holds Firm
May’s retail sales were flat month-over-month, defying expectations of a slowdown. Core retail sales (ex-autos) edged up +0.2%, signaling resilience in consumer purchases—an encouraging sign for economic momentum
🤖 Tesla’s Robotaxi Buzz Accelerates
Tesla stock surged after a weekend robotaxi video surfaced ahead of its planned Austin launch. A viral clip showed a Model Y “robotaxi” navigating traffic autonomously, sparking fresh investor enthusiasm despite safety debates
📊 BoJ Holds Rates; Dollar Edges Higher
Japan’s central bank left policy unchanged at 0.5%, maintaining its dovish bias. This lifted the dollar slightly versus the yen, drawing focus to global interest-rate divergence
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 17:
8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales (May)
Consumer purchases are tracked, excluding autos. Monitor if activity stays steady despite inflation and rate pressures.
9:15 AM ET – Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (May)
Provides insight into factory activity and plant usage—a gauge of economic health amid global slowdown concerns.
10:00 AM ET – Business Inventories (April)
Shows stock levels held by wholesalers and manufacturers. Higher inventories with weaker sales may signal slowing demand.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
ETH didn’t rally — it cleared inefficiency and pausedThis isn’t the move. This is the setup for the move.
ETH tagged 2658.22 — premium — and stalled right where Smart Money pauses before redistributing or rotating.
Here’s how this lines up:
Price swept into the 0 fib (2658.22), then hesitated — that’s not weakness, that’s precision
Just below sits a clean FVG at 2594–2575, right between the 0.382–0.5 fibs
Below that: OB near 2527–2492 — last line of defense before momentum flips
Right now, ETH is offering a reactive pullback opportunity. If bulls hold 2594–2575 with a bounce, we rotate higher again. But if they don’t — 2527 becomes the decision zone.
Execution lens:
Ideal re-entry zone: 2594–2575
Invalidation: sustained close below 2555 = expect OB tap
If FVG holds, expect revisit of 2658 → extension toward 2680s
This setup isn’t done. It’s developing. Wait for price to speak — not hope.
For more plays built like this — mapped in advance, not after the fact — check the profile description
Impulse without purpose? Not in Smart Money termsSOL didn’t just break structure — it filled inefficiency and positioned above. Now price is sitting in the upper FVG, where decisions are made — not guesses.
What just happened:
Price rallied from the OB below and left an IFVG in its wake
Current price is hovering at the edge of a higher FVG, right where liquidity rests from trapped shorts
The move is complete — now it’s about what price does next in this zone of intent
From here, two paths:
Sweep into FVG, reject, and rotate back down toward the 154–147.4 range
React bullishly from mid-FVG, reclaim structure → break to new internal high and keep running
The OB down at 145 is still valid if price unwinds — that’s where Smart Money bids.
Execution view:
Rejection from 158–159 = short bias down to 147–145
Clean invalidation above FVG high
If price consolidates at 154 and reclaims → setup flips bullish
The setup isn’t about what price did — it’s about what it’s preparing for.
You want more trades like this — precision zones, mapped logic — check the profile description.
That wasn’t a breakout. That was the stop runBTC swept the high into 107,991 — precision tap of the premium fib. Now the delivery shifts. Price has already done its job: take liquidity, trigger late longs, and set up the real move.
Here’s the execution breakdown:
Price tagged the 0 level of the fib extension — 107,991 — and rejected
A clean 4H FVG sits just below around 106,195.9 (0.5), aligned with 0.382 and 0.618 fib levels (106,619.8 to 105,772.1)
This is the re-entry zone for Smart Money — not the top chasers
Expectations from here:
→ Rebalance into the 106.6–105.7k region
→ If that zone holds and price shifts structure bullish again, we retest 107.1 → 107.9 → break higher
→ If we lose 105.7 cleanly, I’m watching 104,399.9 — the deeper inefficiency magnet
This isn’t about confirmation. It’s about preparation.
More trades like this — clean, controlled, conviction-based — live in the profile description.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025 🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 16–20, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🏦 Fed Holds Rates, Powell Expresses Caution
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep rates at 4.25–4.50%, though Chair Powell likely won’t provide fresh guidance. Markets see limited upside without stronger inflation or growth cues
💱 Dollar Strengthens on Geopolitical Risk
The U.S. dollar rose slightly as investors flocked to safe assets amid global tensions with Iran. Treasury yields eased slightly on risk-off flows
🛢️ Oil Near Multi-Week Highs on Mideast & OPEC Dynamics
Oil held near seven-week highs (~$67–70/barrel), buoyed by Iran-Israel tensions and OPEC+ output hikes (411K bpd added from May–July), offset by demand concerns .
⚠️ G7 Summit Faces Heightened Stakes
G7 finance ministers meet in Canada under pressure from Middle East escalation. Watch for policy coordination and commentary on trade, inflation, and global economic risks .
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Monday, June 16
Regular markets open after Juneteenth holiday
Quiet day; oil & geopolitical headlines dominate
📅 Tuesday, June 17
8:30 AM ET – Retail Sales (May): Signals consumer spending strength/duration
8:30 AM ET – CPI (May): Confirms inflation trend post-CPI cooler reading
10:00 AM ET – Housing Starts & Building Permits (May): Gauges housing market demand
Unexpected Tesla Robotaxi Demo (Austin): Watch for surprise developments this week
📅 Wednesday, June 18
Global Central Bank Day: FOMC, BoE, BoJ policy updates; U.S. Fed will most likely hold steady
📅 Thursday, June 19 – Juneteenth Holiday – U.S. markets closed
📅 Friday, June 20
8:30 AM ET – Existing Home Sales (May): Measures U.S. housing activity
10:00 AM ET – Leading Economic Indicators (May): Early snapshot of economic momentum
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
This isn’t a dump. It’s a delivery systemBNB sold off fast — but not irrationally. Look closer, and you’ll see the system at work: rejection from inefficiency, compression, and now a retest of where the last real buyers were found.
The structure:
Price swept short-term demand and wicked below local range lows with a high-volume rejection. That low was engineered — not failed.
Above us? A neatly layered series of 60-minute FVGs from 646.5 to 652.0. Every candle into that zone is a test. But the true objective is to reload short once that imbalance is filled.
Playbook:
We’re in a reactive zone now. Here’s what I’m watching:
Price pushes into the FVG cluster (646–650)
Volume dries → rejection wick → return to discounted re-entry
Aggressive scalpers might long the bounce into the FVG, but the higher-probability play is fading the inefficiency once it’s filled.
Execution:
Scalp long (optional): 643.5 → TP into 648–650
Main setup: short entry from 647.4–650.5
SL above 652.2
TP1: 640.5
TP2: 634.8
Final draw: 630.0 if structure accelerates
Patience is what separates the move from the moment.
Final thought:
“This move didn’t break structure. It exposed the next one.”
Everyone saw the drop. I saw the gapPrice nuked — but it didn’t break structure. It filled imbalance, paused, and now it's reloading beneath a stack of untouched FVGs. This isn't capitulation. It's orchestration.
The setup:
We’ve got layered 60-minute FVGs stacked from 0.61 to 0.66. That’s the destination — not the mystery. What matters is the origin. The rejection block around 0.58–0.59 has held clean, and we now have two bullish rejection wicks off that base.
Volume surged during the sweep — and fell on the retrace. That’s not distribution. That’s Smart Money filling.
Two entries — one outcome:
Entry 1: Tap into the red demand zone, wick the 0.58–0.579 region
Entry 2: Break and retest above minor FVG (0.60 reclaim confirmation)
Either way, the draw is the inefficiency stack above.
Execution Map:
Long from 0.579–0.583
SL: Below the base at 0.574
TP1: 0.615 (lower FVG)
TP2: 0.645 (full sweep)
Final: 0.660 liquidity run
Don’t fear the compression. That’s where the trap is set.
Final thought:
“Most traders fear price going sideways. I see it as silence before the algorithm speaks.”
The FVG above isn’t the target. It’s the bait.This is a classic Smart Money sequence. Most are watching the imbalance at 106.5k–108.7k and expecting immediate delivery. But that’s not how this game works.
The setup:
Price broke down violently, then reversed with momentum — stopping right beneath the daily FVG block. That alone tells me it’s not ready. It’s gathering.
Below? Multiple fib levels that haven’t been tested — 104.4k (0.236), 102.6k (0.0), and a volume-backed rejection wick that still holds weight.
The market is likely to dip again — pull into deeper discount, reset the low timeframe narrative — and only then attack the FVG and upper sweep zones.
What I expect:
Sweep of 102.6k (final liquidity run)
Reaction → reclaim 104.4k
Push into the FVG toward 106.5k (0.5) and possibly 107.4k (0.618)
No emotional reaction to the red candles — this is structure playing out, not weakness unfolding.
Plan:
Ideal Entry: 102.8k–103.2k range
SL: Below 102.6k
TP1: 105.6k
TP2: 107.4k
Final: 108.7k clean inefficiency fill
Let it dip. Let it breathe. That’s where conviction is built.
Final thought:
“The real move starts when they convince you it’s done.”
When the range compresses, the breakout doesn’t ask — it takesThis isn’t a chop. It’s a setup. AVAX just printed the kind of consolidation Smart Money wants to see before delivery.
The setup:
After the impulsive drop, price carved out a micro-range with well-defined boundaries — compression structure nested inside inefficiency. The FVG above (marked in purple) hasn’t been mitigated, and price is now pressing upward into that void with rising volume.
But that’s not where the trade is. The real trade is in the retracement.
I’m watching for one of two entries:
Either we drive into the FVG first, then sweep back into the range floor to trap late longs
Or we sweep range low one more time, then rip straight into the imbalance
Either way, the invalidation is clean — below the swing low, under 18.66.
Execution plan:
Entry: 18.70–18.90 zone (post-sweep or reaction)
TP1: 19.80 fill (FVG midpoint)
TP2: 20.54 clean inefficiency clearance
Nothing about this is forced. Price is telling the story. I’m just listening.
Final thought:
“The range isn’t random. It’s the disguise Smart Money uses before they move size.”
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 13, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🚨 Israel Strikes Iran — U.S. Markets Sell Off
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, triggering a sharp risk-off move in global markets. U.S. stock futures slid over 1%, driven by a drop in equities and a surge in safe-haven assets
🛢️ Oil Prices Surge 7–8% on Supply Fears
Brent crude jumped over 7%, reaching ~$74.65/barrel, while WTI rose nearly 8%—the strongest move since early May. The sudden energy-price spike reflects heightened fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East
💱 Dollar & Safe Havens Climb
True to form, the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, Swiss franc, gold, and Treasuries rallied as investors moved to the safety of low-risk assets amid escalating geopolitical uncertainty
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, June 13
(No scheduled U.S. economic data)
Data flow will take a backseat as markets digest geopolitical developments and await the weekend.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #geopolitics #oil #safety #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 12, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
💱 Dollar Slides on Trade Truce Hopes & Fed Outlook
The U.S. dollar dropped 0.4%—its lowest level since April 22—after President Trump signaled flexibility on a July 8 trade deadline and U.S.–China talks showed renewed progress, boosting expectations for Fed rate cuts
📊 S&P Shiller CAPE Hints at Overvaluation Risk
Stocks and bonds rallied following rebound, but valuation metrics flash caution: the S&P 500 now sits in the 94th percentile of Shiller CAPE, and equity risk premium has dropped to zero. Analysts warn these levels often precede corrections
🛢️ Oil Holds at Seven-Week Highs
Oil prices remain near seven-week highs (~$66–67/barrel), supported by gradual OPEC+ output increases and hopes that easing trade tensions will aid demand
📈 CPI Cools Again, Bonds Climb
U.S. consumer inflation rose just 0.1% in May (2.4% YoY), easing expectations for tighter Fed policy. Consequently, Treasury yields softened and bond markets outperformed equities
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, June 12:
8:30 AM ET – Producer Price Index (May)
An early gauge of inflation at the wholesale level—may reinforce the cooling trend seen in CPI.
8:30 AM ET – Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims
Weekly updates on unemployment filings. Key to monitor for labor-market tightening or softening.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This report is for educational and informational purposes only—it does not constitute financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 11, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 11, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
🤝 Cautious Optimism on U.S.–China Trade Progress
Markets responded positively to fresh developments in ongoing U.S.–China trade talks, with S&P 500 and Nasdaq closing ~0.6% higher — the third straight day of gains — on hopes of easing trade barriers
📉 Treasury Yields Climb as Auction Approaches
Bond investors grew cautious ahead of a key Treasury debt auction and incoming U.S. inflation data. The 10-year yield stayed elevated, weighing modestly on equities .
💹 Global Markets Showing Resilience
Asian and European markets tracked U.S. gains midweek, driven by trade-talk optimism, despite lingering concerns over slower global growth and debt levels .
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, June 11:
(No major U.S. releases — focus remains on market reactions to trade talks and Treasury auctions.)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for June 10, 2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for June 10, 2025 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍
📱 Apple Disappoints at WWDC Keynote
Apple ( NASDAQ:AAPL ) faced criticism after a lackluster WWDC keynote. Major AI and Siri upgrades were delayed, prompting a 1–1.5% drop in Apple shares—the weakest move during today's presentation
🎮 GameStop to Report Q1, Crypto Pivot in Focus
GameStop ( NYSE:GME ) is scheduled to announce Q1 earnings after market close. Investors will be watching for updates on its $500M Bitcoin allocation and potential crypto-related strategies
📈 Small-Business Optimism Rises
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for May came in at 95.9—above the 94.9 consensus—showing modest improvement in sentiment among small firms
📊 Key Data Releases & Events 📊
📅 Tuesday, June 10:
6:00 AM ET – NFIB Small Business Optimism (May):
A reading above expectations could boost risk market sentiment by showing stronger Main Street confidence.
⚠️ Disclaimer:
This is for educational/informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Please consult a licensed professional before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis