More bad days for TESLATesla is about to meet its temporary trandline and probably will continue to close the gap.
Market
$2.94 to $16.24 in 3 hours up to 452% on the day $NAOVBANG! 💣 $2.94 to $16.24 in 3 hours up to +452% on the day NASDAQ:NAOV
Shared it in chat for everyone premarket while it was still +170% on the day, a few dollars per share profit keeps the job away, great way to start the day comfortably, life is good 🤑
Another day another strong vertical, told you it never stops no matter what's up with overall market, no matter what Trump says
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 8, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📊 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index Release: The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) will release its Small Business Optimism Index for March at 6:00 AM ET. This index provides insights into the health and outlook of small businesses, which are vital to the U.S. economy.
🗣️ Federal Reserve Speeches:
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly is scheduled to speak at 8:00 AM ET.
Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will deliver remarks at 7:00 PM ET.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, April 8:
📈 NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (6:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 100.7
Previous: 102.8
Assesses the health and outlook of small businesses, which are vital to the economy.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Bitcoin Retests 77k Neckline Support! This is huge!Traders,
As we watch the tariff FUD destroy traders everywhere, I want you to be aware that we have just landed on something extremely critical for support, the neckline of our long-standing CUP and HANDLE that began forming at the end of 2021. The neckline currently stands at an approximate price of 76-77k. If you'll remember in my last post a couple of days ago regarding the SPY, I suggested that SPY could drop as low as 467 and Bitcoin could hit 76k. Bitcoin has arrived at it's 76k support and if this doesn't hold, crypto is in serious trouble. I am not trying to be an alarmist here. You all know that I am an eternal optimist when it comes to crypto, but in this case we have to prepare our trades accordingly. The break of 76k support could send Bitcoin and crypto down as far at 50k. I know this is hard to believe. Even as I am typing this I am having a hard time grasping that we'd get there, but this is what I am seeing and I have to inform you all accordingly. If we're lucky, that neckline holds. But plan accordingly.
✌️Stew
Some stocks do +1,650% verticals while the rest of market dropsNot all stocks follow overall market direction, just 80% of them. NASDAQ:AREB wasn't one of them.
We focus on the other 20% which are having massive verticals no matter the overall market or economy situation.
TOTAL Week: +121.4% realized profit from alerts posted in chat 💯
To good to be true?
Been doing it for 20+ years.
When should one beat the market with perfected strategy if not after 2 decades and nearly 100k hours invested?
Ever heard of 10,000 hours invested to master something.
Then what does 100k make you?
Master Jedi?
Sure feels like it if your 2 stocks are doing +70% +300% in a day while the world is crashing 🤷🏻♂️
All fully verified with timestamps, feel free to check and verify.
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 7–11, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 New U.S. Tariffs Begin April 9: Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs — 10% on all imports, 25%+ on key sectors — could stir volatility.
🇨🇳📦 China Retaliates April 10: A 34% retaliatory tariff on U.S. goods raises trade war fears and inflation concerns.
🏦💰 Big Bank Earnings Kick Off: JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and BlackRock will report. Markets will watch closely for financial health signals.
📉📊 March CPI Report Coming April 10: Inflation data could sway the Fed’s rate path. Forecasts call for a 0.1% increase.
⚠️ Volatility Alert: Piper Sandler projects a possible 5.6% move in the S&P 500 this week — up or down.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, April 7:
🗣️ Fed Gov. Kugler Speaks (10:30 AM ET)
💳 Consumer Credit (3:00 PM ET) — Forecast: $15.5B | Prev: $18.1B
📅 Tuesday, April 8:
📈 NFIB Small Biz Optimism (6:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 100.7
🗣️ Fed’s Mary Daly Speaks (8:00 AM ET)
📅 Wednesday, April 9:
📦 Wholesale Inventories (10:00 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.4% | Prev: 0.8%
🗣️ Fed’s Barkin Speaks (11:00 AM ET)
📝 FOMC Minutes (2:00 PM ET)
📅 Thursday, April 10:
📉 Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 219K
📊 CPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.1% | Prev: 0.2%
🗣️ Fed Gov. Bowman Testifies (10:00 AM ET)
📅 Friday, April 11:
🏭 PPI (8:30 AM ET) — Forecast: 0.2% | Prev: 0.0%
🗣️ Fed’s Musalem Speaks (10:00 AM ET)
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Tariff FUD is reking ports. SPY 505 First Stop. 460 Second.Trading Fam,
It's no surprise that Trump's implementation of high tariffs would cause initial FUD. This can be observed in the massive spikes on the $VIX. What is unknown and has caught many traders by surprise, myself included, is how substantial of a drop would be incurred by investor uncertainty.
Initially, it did appear that 500 might hold. That was a huge support. I knew if it broke, the sell-off would be deep. But I held hope that the market would hold above this trendline. It did not. So, yesterday and today, investors who held are incurring substantial losses.
For those who were smarter than me and sold at or near the top, congratulations! You've saved yourself some duress and cash. Now, some are calling this the beginning of a longer bear market. I still don't see it that way. Honestly (and I know this will be hard to believe), I still see the SPY hitting my target #3 at 670-700 before 2026 comes to an end. Longer-term we still remain in a massive secular bull market since 2009 and to break this long-term trend, the SPY would actually have to break below 300. That is a long way down and I just don't see that happening, though as always, I definitely could be wrong.
Shorter-term I am seeing two prominent areas of support. The first has almost been reached at 505. If I would have played this correctly, I'd be DCA'ing in my first load of cash here. The second area of support is at around 460 and slightly rising daily. This would be where I DCA'ed in another load of cash. However, if that broke, I'd exit immediately and reassess the charts. 300 is a long way down, but over the past 5 years we have seen some extraordinary market price action and volatility. TBH, even the best of us technicians are struggling to understand the larger macro-economic picture, but I'd wager to say that tariff fears may be overexaggerated as market reactions often tend to be.
One interesting note is that crypto price action no longer seems to correlate and prices have help up surprisingly well. Could this be our first indicator that the markets are due to turn up again in a few weeks/months? Unknown. But I can promise you I'll be watching this all closely.
✌️Stew
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 4, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📊 March Employment Report Release: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the March employment report, with forecasts predicting an addition of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%. This data will provide insights into the labor market's health and potential implications for Federal Reserve policy.
🇺🇸💬 Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's Address: Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at 11:25 AM ET. Investors will be closely monitoring his remarks for any indications regarding future monetary policy, especially in light of recent market volatility.
🇺🇸📈 Market Reaction to 'Liberation Day' Tariffs: Following President Donald Trump's announcement of new tariffs, dubbed "Liberation Day" tariffs, the markets experienced significant declines. The S&P 500 dropped 4.8%, and the Nasdaq Composite fell 6%, marking the worst trading day since 2020. Investors are bracing for continued volatility as the market digests the potential economic impacts of these tariffs.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Friday, April 4:
👷♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +140,000
Previous: +151,000
Indicates the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.
📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 4.1%
Previous: 4.1%
Represents the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment.
💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: +0.3%
Previous: +0.3%
Measures the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
A few scenarios for the SPY! 🔉Sound on!🔉
📣Make sure to watch fullscreen!📣
Thank you as always for watching my videos. I hope that you learned something very educational! Please feel free to like, share, and comment on this post. Remember only risk what you are willing to lose. Trading is very risky but it can change your life!
US Recession Imminent! WARNING!Bond traders are best when it comes to economics. Stock traders not so much.
As the chart shows, historically, when rates bunch up, what follows is a recession. During the recession, the economy tries to fix itself by fanning out the yield curve, marking it cheaper to borrow and boosting the economy.
The best time to be buying up stocks and going long the market is when the yield curve is uninverted and fanned out wide—not when it is bunched up like this.
My followers know this is my first warning of a recession since FEB. 2020.
WARNING! Things can get ugly from here very quickly!
TAOUSDTDisclaimer 👉 This is my personal analysis for educational purposes , Buy/Sell/Trade at your own risk. I am not a financial Advisor
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 3, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 President Trump's 'Liberation Day' Tariffs Implemented: On April 2, President Donald Trump announced a series of new tariffs, referred to as "Liberation Day" tariffs, aiming to address trade imbalances. These include a baseline 10% tariff on all imports, with higher rates for specific countries: 34% on Chinese goods, 20% on European Union products, and 25% on all foreign-made automobiles. The administration asserts these measures will revitalize domestic industries, though critics warn of potential price increases for consumers and possible retaliatory actions from affected nations.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Thursday, April 3:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 225,000
Previous: 224,000
Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, providing insight into the labor market's health.
📈 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -$76.0 billion
Previous: -$131.4 billion
Indicates the difference in value between imported and exported goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.
🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 53.0
Previous: 53.5
Assesses the performance of the services sector; a reading above 50 suggests expansion.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Six conviction trades for 2025: seize the new market narrativeWhile developed economies have shifted to easing policies, opening the way for a broadening of the market away from technology mega stocks, the economic outlook remains uncertain. The violent reaction to DeepSeek’s launch early in the year clearly highlights the nervousness of markets and their ultra concentration. In the first few weeks of the year, the Trump administration has also been implementing its agenda at breakneck speed, leading to heightened uncertainties around trade frictions, inflation dynamics, and geopolitical upheaval. In that context, it is important to rethink investment positionings that may have worked in 2024, acknowledging the potential for volatility and numerous changes of directions.
In this uncertain environment, WisdomTree’s research team presents its six highest-conviction investment ideas for 2025.
1. Can the Magnificent Seven dominate for a third year in a row?
Few storylines have captured the investor imagination recently as much as the Magnificent Seven —a cohort of mega-cap technology stocks that propelled US equity benchmarks to remarkable gains. While these tech giants remain influential, we see scope for 2025 to become a year of ‘broadening out’.
Macro rationale
Resilience in corporate fundamentals and earnings growth: high quality growth stocks continue to be supported by strong fundamentals and growth could benefit from continued momentum after two years of domination.
Value resilience and broadening: with uncertainty increasing around the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) trajectory and inflationary pressures created by potential tariffs, value stocks may benefit and offer some diversification. Energy and Financials should also benefit from a wave of deregulation under the new Trump regime.
The case for a value/growth barbell strategy in US equities: a barbell strategy between US large cap quality Growth and US large cap Value equities leverages complementary strengths to navigate 2025. This approach allows investors to:
Capitalise on the Value factor’s extreme discount to Growth.
Enable investors to capture opportunities across market cycles.
Create a balance between growth potential and valuation-driven safety.
2. Unlocking value in Japan
Japan’s economic transformation story continues to gain traction as the country moves beyond four decades of stagnant nominal growth and sporadic deflationary episodes. While 2024 was the best year for Japanese equities since 1989, we believe that the Japanese renaissance still has further room to run.
Macro rationale
Resilience in corporate fundamentals and earnings growth: high quality growth stocks continue to be supported by strong fundamentals and growth could benefit from continued momentum after two years of domination.
Favourable currency tailwinds: the yen’s multi-year weakness augments the competitiveness of Japanese exporters, fuelling strong earnings from overseas revenue. Stable core inflation (outside of food) and talks about bond purchases by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) indicate that the BOJ will prevent the yen from appreciating too much.
Earnings and tariffs: Corporate earnings growth remains very strong after 2 years of improvement, and our analysis shows that the market is underreacting to those fundamentals. Furthermore, Japan may be able to secure a tariff carve-out from the US, leading to strengthening competitive positioning versus Europe and China.
3. A Trump card for emerging markets small caps
Emerging markets (EM) have struggled over the past decade, underweighted by many global investors and burned by repeated episodes of dollar strength, trade frictions, and slower growth in China. However, the narrative is a lot more positive going into 2025.
Macro rationale
An EM comeback: with the Federal Reserve maintaining an accommodative stance on monetary policy, China unleashing coordinated fiscal and monetary stimulus, and a wave of EM sovereign ratings upgrades, tailwinds have been picking up strongly for emerging markets.
But some clouds remain on the horizon: unfortunately, the Trump administration’s focus on a strong dollar and tariffs could slow down the recovery.
EM smalls caps as the solution: EM small caps typically derive a larger share of revenues from their home countries, insulating them somewhat from US tariffs or the dollar ‘s strength. In a scenario where the global trade outlook remains uncertain, these domestically oriented firms can thrive on internal consumer growth, as rising middle-class demographics in markets like India, Indonesia, and parts of Latin America continue to drive local consumer demand.
4. Cybersecurity at the crossroads of AI, geopolitical tensions, and quantum computing
The first few weeks of 2025 saw a resurgence of software stocks, with cybersecurity companies jumping in front of semiconductors or AI stocks. Continued corporate and government spending, as well as the imperative to protect the AI revolution, position cybersecurity for robust growth in 2025.
Macro rationale
AI’s security gap: rapid AI adoption brings higher data volumes and more software vulnerabilities, forcing enterprises to bolster their cyber defences. We expect a wave of spending on next-generation cloud solutions, zero-trust architecture, and quantum-proof encryption.
Elevated geopolitical risks: heightened tensions—from continuing conflicts and new trade disputes—translate into more frequent state-sponsored cyber-attacks. This, in turn, drives increased defence budgets and corporate vigilance.
US deregulation: since the US election, software companies have benefitted from deregulation expectations. Cybersecurity, cloud, and blockchain posted some of the strongest thematic gains in the first few weeks of the year.
5. Precious potential: silver’s breakout moment
While gold often steals the headlines, silver has quietly staged a meaningful rally, underpinned by both safe-haven demand and its essential role in green technologies, such as solar photovoltaics. 2025 could be silver’s ‘catch-up’ year.
Macro rationale
Haven meets industrial: silver exhibits a unique duality—part precious metal and part industrial commodity. If risk aversion flares, silver typically follows gold upward. If global growth holds steady, silver benefits from manufacturing demand. Countries worldwide, led by China and the US, are rapidly expanding solar capacity. Newer solar cell technology requires even higher silver content, providing a price tailwind.
Gold correlation: geopolitical tensions and looser monetary policy are offering gold new tailwinds, and silver will also benefit from the catch-up effect.
Limited supply growth: silver’s byproduct nature makes supply tight, as mining companies are not incentivised to expand production simply for silver alone. This supply-demand imbalance supports a more bullish price outlook.
6. Institutional adoption of digital assets is redefining multi-asset portfolios
After navigating a series of regulatory speed bumps, digital assets, led by bitcoin, have entered 2025 with growing mainstream acceptance. Key catalysts have included the expansion of physical bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETP) listings across major exchanges and the gradual emergence of regulatory frameworks that remove operational frictions. We believe most multi-asset portfolios remain structurally under-allocated to cryptocurrencies as a neutral position in digital assets (as illustrated by the market portfolio) should be around 1.5%.
Macro rationale
Portfolio diversification: bitcoin’s correlation to equities and bonds is low, providing a diversification benefit. Even small allocations have, historically, improved risk-adjusted returns.
Institutional inflows: pension funds, endowments, and sovereign wealth funds are steadily warming to digital assets, pointing to a rising tide of flows. As coverage by mainstream analysts grows, digital assets are increasingly viewed through the lens of asset class fundamentals rather than speculation alone.
Technological leaps: alongside bitcoin, developments in Ethereum scaling, stablecoins for global payments, and the tokenisation of real-world assets are reshaping how capital markets function. The resulting network effects may boost confidence in the broader crypto ecosystem.
Conclusion
In an environment that may reward conviction and flexibility, these six investment ideas offer distinct avenues to harness the opportunities emerging in 2025. Whether you seek cyclical upside, defensive yield, or secular growth themes, we believe these high-conviction calls exemplify WisdomTree’s mission: delivering innovative, research-driven solutions in a world of constant change.
This material is prepared by WisdomTree and its affiliates and is not intended to be relied upon as a forecast, research, or investment advice, and is not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. The opinions expressed are as of the date of production and may change as subsequent conditions vary. The information and opinions contained in this material are derived from proprietary and non-proprietary sources. As such, no warranty of accuracy or reliability is given and no responsibility arising in any other way for errors and omissions (including responsibility to any person by reason of negligence) is accepted by WisdomTree, nor any affiliate, nor any of their officers, employees, or agents. Reliance upon information in this material is at the sole discretion of the reader. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for April 1, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 ISM Manufacturing PMI Release: The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) will release its Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for March. A reading below 50 indicates contraction in the manufacturing sector, which could influence market sentiment.
🇺🇸🏗️ Construction Spending Data: The U.S. Census Bureau will report on February's construction spending, providing insights into the health of the construction industry and potential impacts on related sectors.
🇺🇸📄 Job Openings Report: The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) for February will be released, offering a view into labor demand and potential implications for wage growth and consumer spending.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Tuesday, April 1:
🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 49.5%
Previous: 50.3%
Assesses the health of the manufacturing sector; a reading below 50% suggests contraction.
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: -0.2%
Measures the total value of construction work done; indicates trends in the construction industry.
📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 7.7 million
Previous: 7.7 million
Provides insight into labor market demand by reporting the number of job vacancies.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
BTC more downside potential...CRYPTOCAP:BTC lost its last major low❗️
What's next?
As long as the bears hold below the falling orange trendline, expect further downside towards the $75,000 support!
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 31 – April 4, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report: The March employment data, set for release on Friday, April 4, is expected to show a slowdown in job growth, with forecasts predicting an increase of 140,000 nonfarm payrolls, down from 151,000 in February. The unemployment rate is projected to remain steady at 4.1%. This report will be closely monitored for signs of economic momentum and potential impacts on Federal Reserve policy.
🇺🇸💼 President Trump's Tariff Announcement: President Donald Trump is scheduled to unveil his "reciprocal tariffs" plan on Wednesday, April 2, dubbed "Liberation Day." The announcement is anticipated to include a 25% duty on imported vehicles, which could significantly impact the automotive industry and broader market sentiment. Investors are bracing for potential volatility in response to these trade policy developments.
🇺🇸📊 Manufacturing and Services Sector Updates: Key indicators for the manufacturing and services sectors are due this week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI, scheduled for Tuesday, April 1, is expected to show a slight contraction with a forecast of 49.5%, down from 50.3% in February. The ISM Services PMI, set for release on Thursday, April 3, is projected at 53.0%, indicating continued expansion but at a slower pace. These reports will provide insights into the health of these critical sectors.
MarketWatch
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Monday, March 31:
🏭 Chicago Business Barometer (PMI) (9:45 AM ET):
Forecast: 45.5
Previous: 43.6
Measures business conditions in the Chicago area, with readings below 50 indicating contraction.
📅 Tuesday, April 1:
🏗️ Construction Spending (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: -0.2%
Indicates the total amount spent on construction projects, reflecting trends in the construction industry.
📄 Job Openings (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 7.7 million
Previous: 7.7 million
Provides insight into labor demand by measuring the number of job vacancies.
📅 Wednesday, April 2:
🏭 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.6%
Previous: 1.7%
Reflects the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, indicating manufacturing demand.
📅 Thursday, April 3:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 226,000
Previous: 224,000
Measures the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into labor market conditions.
📊 Trade Balance (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -$123.0 billion
Previous: -$131.4 billion
Indicates the difference between exports and imports of goods and services, reflecting the nation's trade activity.
📅 Friday, April 4:
💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: 0.3%
Previous: 0.3%
Measures the change in earnings per hour for workers, indicating wage inflation.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
ICT Concepts for FX and GOLD traders: 2025 edition🔍 ICT (Inner Circle Trader) is a trading methodology developed by Michael J. Huddleston. It focuses on market structure, smart money concepts (SMC), and how institutions manipulate liquidity to trap retail traders.
📚 It's not about indicators or over-complication — it's about reading the price action like a pro, understanding where liquidity is, and trading with the banks, not against them.
📐 1. Market Structure
Understand Highs & Lows: Identify break of structure (BOS) and change of character (CHOCH)
Follow the macro to micro flow: D1 > H4 > M15 for precision entries
🧱 2. Order Blocks (OBs)
An order block is the last bullish or bearish candle before a major price move.
Banks and institutions place large orders here.
Smart traders look for price to return to these areas (mitigation), then enter with tight stop losses.
👉 Think of OBs as institutional footprints on the chart.
💧 3. Liquidity Zones
Equal highs/lows, trendline touches, support/resistance — these are liquidity traps.
ICT teaches that price often hunts liquidity before reversing. That’s why many retail traders get stopped out.
Learn to trade into liquidity, not off it.
🔄 4. Fair Value Gaps (FVGs)
Also called imbalances — when price moves too fast and leaves gaps.
Price often retraces to "fill the gap" — a key entry point for ICT traders.
🥇 ICT for Gold & Forex in 2025
💰 Why It Works for XAUUSD & Majors:
Gold is a highly manipulated asset, perfect for ICT-style trading.
It responds beautifully to liquidity grabs, order blocks, and Asian–London–New York session transitions.
Forex majors (EUR/USD, GBP/USD, etc.) are also ideal since they’re heavily influenced by institutional flow and news-driven liquidity hunts.
🕐 Timing Is Everything
Trade Killzones:
📍 London Killzone: 2AM–5AM EST
📍 New York Killzone: 7AM–10AM EST
These are high-volume sessions where institutions make their moves.
📈 Typical ICT Setup
▪️Spot liquidity zone above or below recent price
▪️Wait for liquidity sweep (stop hunt)
▪️Identify nearby order block or FVG
▪️Enter on a pullback into OB/FVG
▪️Set tight SL just past the recent swing
Target internal range, opposing OB, or next liquidity level
👨💻 Why FX/GOLD Traders Love ICT
✅ It’s clean, no indicators, and highly logical
✅ Great for part-time trading — 1 or 2 trades a day
✅ Feels like "leveling up" your understanding of the market
✅ Perfect for backtesting and journaling on platforms like TradingView or SmartCharts
✅ Easy to integrate into algo-based systems or EAs for semi-automation
If you’re tired of indicators and guessing, and want to trade like the institutions, ICT is a game changer. In 2025, more prop firms and traders are applying ICT concepts to dominate markets like gold, forex, and even crypto.
🧭 Master the method. Understand the logic. Ride with the smart money.
🔥 Welcome to the next level of trading.
EUR/USD Weekly Forecast: Rising Wedge Breakdown & Bearish TargetChart Overview:
The provided EUR/USD daily chart displays a well-structured Rising Wedge pattern, which eventually led to a significant bearish breakdown. The analysis highlights key levels, including resistance, support, stop loss, and a downside target, all of which contribute to a well-planned trade setup. The market structure suggests a strong bearish continuation, targeting lower price levels based on technical projections.
1. Chart Pattern: Rising Wedge Formation & Breakdown
A Rising Wedge is a bearish reversal pattern that forms when price creates higher highs and higher lows, but the slope of the trendlines indicates weakening bullish momentum. This pattern is often a signal of upcoming bearish price action once a breakout occurs.
Pattern Breakdown Analysis:
The price moved inside the wedge, showing a gradual upward trend with declining momentum.
Upon reaching a key resistance level, price faced strong rejection (marked with a red circle).
The bearish breakdown below the wedge confirmed the pattern, leading to a sharp decline.
A retest of the broken wedge followed before continuing downward.
This confirms a classic bearish trend reversal, making it a strong technical setup.
2. Key Levels and Trade Setup:
🔹 Resistance Level (Major Supply Zone)
The resistance zone (highlighted in beige) acted as a strong supply area, where buyers lost control.
Price reached this resistance multiple times but failed to sustain above it.
A bearish reversal initiated from this level, marking the beginning of a downward trend.
🔹 Support Level (Key Demand Zone)
The support zone (also highlighted) represents a major demand area where price previously reversed.
This level aligns with historical price action, making it a critical area to monitor for potential reactions.
🔹 Stop Loss Placement
A stop loss is placed above the previous high within the resistance zone to protect against false breakouts.
If price invalidates the breakdown and moves above this level, the bearish setup would no longer be valid.
🔹 Price Target Projection
The breakdown suggests a potential drop towards 1.00874, as indicated by the 100% measured move.
This aligns with previous historical support, making it a realistic downside target.
3. Trade Execution Plan: How to Trade This Setup?
📌 Entry Strategy:
Traders can enter short after confirmation of the breakdown and a potential retest.
A sell position can be initiated around the resistance turned support after a pullback rejection.
📌 Stop Loss Strategy:
A stop loss should be set above the resistance zone (around 1.12208) to minimize risk.
This ensures protection against a bullish breakout invalidation.
📌 Take Profit Strategy:
The first take profit target is set at the support level near 1.04498.
The final take profit target is at 1.00874, which aligns with the full measured move projection.
4. Conclusion & Market Sentiment
🔸 Bearish Market Bias – The breakdown of the rising wedge confirms strong bearish momentum.
🔸 Key Resistance Held Strong – The price was unable to break above, confirming seller dominance.
🔸 Downside Target Aligns with Previous Support Levels – A confluence of technical signals supports further decline.
Final Thought:
This chart presents a high-probability bearish trade setup in EUR/USD. The combination of a rising wedge breakdown, clear resistance rejection, and a defined downside target makes it an ideal short-selling opportunity. Traders should watch for price action confirmations and risk management strategies before executing trades.
🚨 Risk Disclaimer: Always apply proper risk management and confirm signals before trading. Market conditions may change, so monitoring price behavior is crucial for trade adjustments.
Ethereum’s Rebound: V-Shaped Surge to an October 2025 PeakI have come today with a new ETH perspective, one that I think is more accurate than my last ETH TA.
Take a look here at how I got this one wrong, mainly because I was counting too much on this diagonal support to hold. Why didn’t it hold? Because there were too many traders looking at it, and when too many people are watching, the opposite happens, and it breaks.
I would advise looking at this TA first before you carry on with this one because the two tie together neatly.
My view is that from here, we will start a V-shaped recovery that will send ETH to $15,000–$18,000 by mid-October 2025. There is a very interesting fractal playing out that I discovered.
So, my alarm went off with this "Wyckoff Spring" indicator. It has only fired off two other times in history: once at the bottom of the COVID crash and the other time at the December 2016 bottom when ETH was just $8. So, I thought, well, let’s take a look to see if the first cycle has anything interesting.
As soon as I flipped to the daily chart, I immediately saw similarities. What if ETH is forming the fractal from the first cycle before the massive run-up? The timeframe and the drawdown percentages are nearly the same, the fractal is nearly identical, and the fact is, the Wyckoff Spring has fired off now, forming this fractal like in 2016. What are the chances…?
When you overlay the fractal, it lines up with mid-October 2025.
I have scanned the entire history of ETH, and I cannot find a fractal closer to this one. This could very well be the pico bottom for ETH this year.
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 26, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📉 Consumer Confidence Hits Four-Year Low: The Conference Board reported that the Consumer Confidence Index fell to 92.9 in March, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline and reaching its lowest level since January 2021. Rising concerns over tariffs and inflation are major contributors to this decline.
🇺🇸🏠 New Home Sales Rebound: New home sales increased by 1.8% in February to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 676,000 units, slightly below the forecasted 679,000. The median sales price decreased by 1.5% to $414,500 from a year earlier, indicating potential affordability improvements in the housing market.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊
📅 Wednesday, March 26:
🛠️ Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET):
Forecast: -1.0%
Previous: 3.2%
Reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for long-lasting goods, indicating manufacturing activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult a licensed financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Bitcoin (BTC/USDT) 4H Chart Update. BTC has broken out of a descending triangle, leading to a strong upside.
Currently trading inside an ascending channel, facing resistance near $90,000.
Bullish Scenario:
If BTC holds above $87,000-$88,000, a continuation toward $92,000-$95,000 is possible.
A strong breakout from this channel could lead to an attempt at $100,000.
Bearish Scenario:
A rejection at the channel's top may push BTC back to the $84,000-$85,000 support level.
If the support breaks, BTC could drop to $79,000-$78,400
Resistance: $90,000, $92,000, $95,000
Support: $85,000, $84,000, $79,000
If you found this analysis helpful, hit the Like button and share your thoughts or questions in the comments below. Your feedback matters!
Thanks for your support!
DYOR. NFA
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 25, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸🛍️ Amazon Spring Sale Impact 🛍️: Amazon’s Big Spring Sale is underway, and increased consumer activity could lift retail sector sentiment this week. Watch for broader impacts on e-commerce competitors and discretionary stocks.
🇬🇧📉 UK Growth Outlook Cut 📉: Ahead of the UK's Spring Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to revise growth forecasts downward. While not U.S.-centric, weaker UK economic momentum may influence broader global risk sentiment.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Tuesday, March 25:
🏠 S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET):
Forecast: +4.4% YoY
Previous: +4.5% YoY
A gauge of housing market strength based on home price changes in 20 U.S. metro areas.
🛒 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 95.0
Previous: 98.3
Measures consumers’ outlook on business and labor conditions. A key sentiment driver.
🏘️ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET):
Forecast: 679K annualized
Previous: 657K
Tracks the number of newly constructed homes sold. Sensitive to rates and affordability.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 24–28, 2025🔮 🔮
🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍:
🇺🇸📈 Anticipated U.S. Inflation Data 📈: The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index for February on Friday, March 28. This index, closely monitored by the Federal Reserve, is expected to show a 0.3% month-over-month increase, maintaining a 2.5% year-over-year growth. These figures will provide insights into inflation trends and potential monetary policy adjustments.
🇬🇧💼 UK's Spring Statement and Economic Outlook 💼: Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to deliver the UK's Spring Statement to Parliament this week, addressing revised growth forecasts and fiscal policies. The Office for Budget Responsibility is expected to lower growth estimates, potentially impacting global markets, including the U.S., due to economic interlinkages.
🇨🇳📊 China's Manufacturing and Services PMIs 📊: China will release its official Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers' Indexes (PMIs) for March on March 28. These indicators will provide insights into the health of China's economy, with potential implications for global trade and U.S. markets.
📊 Key Data Releases 📊:
📅 Monday, March 24:
🏭 S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM ET) 🏭:
Forecast: 51.5
Previous: 52.7
This index measures the performance of the manufacturing sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion.
📅 Tuesday, March 25:
🛒 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒:
Forecast: 95.0
Previous: 98.3
This index measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions, with higher readings indicating greater confidence.
🏘️ New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏘️:
Forecast: 679,000 annualized units
Previous: 657,000
This report indicates the number of newly constructed homes sold in the previous month, reflecting the health of the housing market.
📅 Wednesday, March 26:
🛠️ Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) 🛠️:
Forecast: -1.0%
Previous: 3.2%
This data reflects new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting goods, indicating manufacturing activity.
📅 Thursday, March 27:
📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉:
Forecast: 226,000
Previous: 223,000
This report provides the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time during the past week, offering insight into the labor market.
📈 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Second Estimate (8:30 AM ET) 📈:
Forecast: 2.3% annualized growth
Previous: 2.3%
This release provides a second estimate of the nation's economic growth for the fourth quarter of 2024.
🏠 Pending Home Sales Index (10:00 AM ET) 🏠:
Forecast: 1.0%
Previous: -4.6%
This index measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes, offering insights into future home sales.
📅 Friday, March 28:
💵 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💵:
Forecast for Personal Income: 0.4%
Previous: 0.9%
Forecast for Personal Spending: 0.6%
Previous: -0.2%
This report indicates changes in personal income and spending, providing insights into consumer behavior.
💹 PCE Price Index (8:30 AM ET) 💹:
Forecast: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year
Previous: 0.3% month-over-month; 2.5% year-over-year
This index measures changes in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers, serving as the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge.
🛢️ Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM ET) 🛢️:
Previous: 592 rigs
This report provides the number of active drilling rigs in the U.S., offering insights into the oil and gas industry's activity.
⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.
📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
