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The Impact of Economic Factors on the Stock MarketHi there! So, I heard that the economy is in a bit of a rough patch because the FED is raising rates, there's some quantitively tightening happening, and there's a potential recession on the horizon due to a supply shock from the Russia-Ukraine war and China's pandemic restrictions. It looks like we might be heading into a recession, which is sooo not good news. The stock market will definitely be feeling the effects if the index falls below its moving average of 200 days. It's not looking great, I have to say. But don't worry, there are still ways to protect your investments. Some technical indicators you might want to keep an eye on include the relative strength index (RSI), the moving average convergence divergence (MACD) indicator, and the Bollinger bands. These can help you evaluate the strength of the current trend and potentially identify opportunities to buy or sell. Also, outside the SPX index there are still ways to further protect your investments. For example, you might want to consider reducing your exposure to risky assets and increasing your holdings of safe-haven assets like government bonds. Just remember to stay positive and keep an eye on the market!
SP:SPX
by jhnes95
Weekly Bullish DivergenceHello everyone, for anyone who is a fan of Crypto Face's indicators, Market Cipher B has been showing the development of a Bullish Divergence on the higher timeframes. 'Weekly' timeframe in the current chart. On the weekly, it seems as though both WaveTrend's are preparing for to cross. This is an extremely bullish indication. I think it's definitely something to look out for. Do not make any decision on this alone. Further analysis is needed among multiple different timeframes to come too a solid conclusion. We must wait for and see the multiple timeframes are telling us the same story. Will keep updated.
by Clancy3gbh
🖐 5 Rules For Successful Trading!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst. Trading is simple, but not easy. Traders have difficulty succeeding simply because they are unable to follow clear rules over extended periods of time. So what are the rules that every trader should follow? 💸 1- Only invest what you Can Afford to Lose. Only invest money you can afford to lose, never ever borrow money or take a loan from the bank to invest. Because if you do, you will get emotional and make irrational mistakes. ⚔️ 2- 1% Risk per Trade. We only risk a small portion of our account per trade. We enter with 1% risk per trade (2% max). We enter with a fixed risk per trade, not with a fixed stop loss in pips, nor with a fixed lot size. Remember: All Trades Have To Have The Same Weight / Effect On Our Account! 📉 3- Three Confluences Trades. (Technical Edge) Trading is nothing but a game probability. Moreover, we consider ourselves risk managers not only traders, as the only thing we have control over is "risk". The market can go anywhere. To be on the winning side, we need to have an edge over the market. One way to put the odds in our favor is by only entering trades when we have at least three confluences/clues, three things telling us to buy or sell lined-up together. One confluence may be random. For example: Only enter when you have a pattern, support, and divergence. And your rules have to be objective following a well-defined / back-tested trading plan. 📕 4- Positive RRR - Risk Reward Ratio. (Risk Management Edge) Our second edge is going to be through risk and money management by entering with a positive risk-reward ratio. That’s exactly why we enter with a ½ RRR (or higher), which means we always target at least double our stop loss. This way even with a 50% win rate, we are still profitable. Remember: It is not about how many trades you win, what matters is how much you win when you are right, and how much you lose when you are wrong. 🧘‍♂️ 5- Emotional stability. In the trading world, emotions are considered the enemy of traders. Knowing how to control emotions while trading can prove to be the difference between success and failure. When getting into a bad trade, the trader who can manage his psychology well will be able to minimize risk, while the trader who is emotional may make the situation worse. Remember: You Are Getting Paid; To Wait! Moreover, if you are not feeling well, don't trade. Remember: You don't have to catch every trade, and you don't have to trade every week. In fact, our 5 rules are all connected in a way or another. If you invest money you can’t afford to lose or enter with 10% risk per trade, chances are that you will get emotional and not follow your trading plan objectively by closing your trades before reaching 2R or even entering trades that are not according to your strategy. In parallel, even if you invest money you can afford to lose and risk 1% per trade, you won’t be consistently profitable if you don’t have a well-defined strategy that gives you an edge over the market technically or through risk management. In brief, stay away from trading if you don’t have these 5 rules. Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Education
by TheSignalyst
29
HOW-TO [TTI] IBD Market SchoolHOW-TO instruction. This video shows how my custom IBD Market School Indicator works for TradingView. –––––––HISTORY & CREDITS––––––– This indicator is based on the Market School Program from IBD and it is the core logic for which I have developed the indicator. The whole system is based on the model books for the greatest winning stocks from the past. The names of the people who have contributed to this system are William-Oneil, Mike Webster and Charles Harris. –––––––WHAT IT CALCULATES––––––– 10 Buy Signals: 👉Follow Through Day 👉Additional Follow Through Days 👉Low above 21-Day MA 👉Trending above 21-Day MA 👉Living above 21-Day MA 👉Low above 50-Day MA 👉Accumulation Day 👉Higher High 👉Downside Reversal BuyBack 👉Distribution Day Fall Off 14 Sell Signals: 👉Follow Through Day Undercut 👉Failed Rally Attempt 👉Full Distribution minus One 👉Full Distribution 👉Break Below 21-Day MA 👉Overdue Break Below 21-Day MA 👉Trending Below 21-Day MA 👉Living Below 21-Day MA 👉Break Below 50-Day MA 👉Bad Break 👉Downside Reversal Day 👉Lower Low 👉Distribution Cluster 👉Break Below Higher High –––––––HOW TO USE––––––– Each buy signal is a +1 and each sell signal is -1 point to the general count. We will add all buy and sell signals to produce an overall count from 0 to 5. Based on the count this will translate to market exposure from 0 (at count 0) to 100% (at count 5). Essentially this will help you scale in and out of the market.
SP:SPXEducation
by TintinTrading
DXY - Be Prepared! 📣Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. For those who know me, I always keep an eye on DXY to feel the overall market (stock, crypto, forex) As per my last analysis (attached on the chart), DXY rejected the upper bound of the brown channel and traded lower. Now What? and why you need to be prepared? As we all know, while DXY was losing strength, the entire market (stock, crypto, forex) has a bull relief movement. But I believe, the party will be over soon! Here is why: DXY is approaching a strong rejection zone that consists of two textbook structures. 1- the 102.0 - 103.5 is a strong resistance turned support 2. the blue zone is a strong demand zone as it is the only bearish candle inside a previous big bullish movement upward As per my trading style: As DXY approaches the blue zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups on lower timeframes (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...) Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
TVC:DXY
by TheSignalyst
12
S&P 500 Big Picture - Bearish ScenarioMany investors are already assuming a breakout from the upper trend line and thus a continuation of the uptrend. The economic sentiment is still bearish, many companies now have to bear the high capital and energy costs and many companies are still highly overvalued. Therefore, today we would like to introduce you to a bearish scenario that is likely to occur, the Double ZigZag. Structure of a Double ZigZag - Superior: (W) - (X) - (Y) - Subordinate: (ABC) - (ABC) - (ABC) - Subwaves: (12345 - ABC - 12345) - (ABC) - (12345 - ABC - 12345) Current situation If this scenario is correct, we would be in the last sub-wave ABC and now see the last downward movement as sub-wave 12345. This would complete the last subordinate (ABC) wave. This scenario would be confirmed if in the next few days/weeks the SPX initiates a trend reversal to the downside. We already see a weaker SPX struggling to pump above the yellow highlighted resistance. Even if we could make it above this, it would have to be retested first and thus hold above resistance. We now expect the SPX to either make another small breakout to the upside before correcting back down, or for the SPX to correct right away. Strongly changing market The market is very difficult to assess at the moment. Many economic news are affecting the markets very strongly, new political and economic changes are coming at a record pace and most investors are still afraid to lose money. Thus, this Double ZigZag scenario is one of several possible scenarios. We will post a bullish scenario in the next few days.
SP:SPXShort
by Consyder
Is the US Economy Actually adding more jobs than expected?If you have been living under a rock for the past few days, unless you are not an economic savvy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has released its newest Non-Farm Payrolls much above the expectation. The NFP rose by 263,000 last month, compared with an expected 200,000. At first, my reaction was that the FED will have to keep raising interest rates, especially as the US dollar reacted to this news by jumping 0.8%. However, I was skeptical as to how NFP jobs increased but the unemployment rate remained steady at 3.7% in an economy that is starting to experience drawdowns from inflation. So I made a research to analyze exactly what is going on. 1. What is happening in the US labor market? Today the NFP is at ~270,000 jobs, similar to mid-2018 when the labor market was defined as strong. It is much lower than the peak job creation in 2021 but 70,000 extra jobs compared to the expectation is a major difference. 2. What is happening with wage growth in the US labor market? Wage growth has increased by 0.6% month-over-month. This is way too strong for the FED's target of 2% in inflation. But why is it so high? Well, one of the reasons is that the supply of labor is not coming back. The participation rate remains way below pre-pandemic levels, even when accounting for an aging population. So if labor participation is low, job creation must be low to slow inflation, yet, the labor market appears to be healthy. Nonetheless, I wrote an analysis in October challenging the FED's data collection on job creation. "Once consumers have reached their credit limit, they will most likely look for another job. “About 38% of American workers have looked for a second job, while an additional 14% plan to” (LA Time, 2022). This justifies the reasons for more job creation in the U.S. economy as emphasized by the Biden Administration and the Fed, however, it is mostly people looking for a second or third job." Credit debt is increasing at an all-time high due to inflation. "U.S. households are spending $445 more every month due to inflation" (Lacurci G, 2022). So those who cannot keep up with their bills have to work more jobs or extra time. This makes total sense, especially when the Household Job Survey shows no jobs added in the past 8 months, while the Establishment Survey shows 2.7 million jobs added, which is the one used by the FED. Why such a large difference between the Household Job Survey and Establishment Survey? The answer lies in how the different surveys are run. For instance, the household survey counts people holding multiple jobs as one employed person. While the establishment survey counts all the jobs created, even if it is a second or third job. Based on the analysis I previously published, at least 700,000 Americans have had a second or third job in the last 12 months to make ends meet. 3. Where are jobs being created and lost? Being created: leisure, government, education, and healthcare. Being lost: goods, transportation, retail, construction, and utilities. Conclusion: The NFP survey is informing the market about Powell's next decision in December. The strong nominal wage growth and "strong" job creation argue there could be further rate hikes and hawkish talk from grandfather Powell. It is imminent before we will start to see weaknesses in the labor market. It is imperative to understand when will the turnover point of the labor market be and how bad to best position yourself, hence, we can start to see a FED pivot in early 2023 as the labor market weakens. This is for personal recording but feel free to comment and argue.
ECONOMICS:USNFP
by ssavi
IS THE RALLY FINALLY OVER?SPY We had two scenarios yesterday during our stream 1.) Preferred scenario would be for the spy to pullback down to 400-398 or trendline and hold for the rally to continue to the upside. So a pullback or consolidation around this level is healthy. Just remember its December, I always look forward to the Santa Rally if you've been in the market more than a year or two you know what that means. 2.) If SPY Pulls back and breaks this trendline and strong support, FEAR / FOMO / SQUIZZLE can happen and the bear market continues. We don't know exactly whats gonna happen in the market but we just ride the wave and make mullah along the way 🙂 Have a blessed weekend ahead and trade smarter!
AMEX:SPY
by rjhay22
Decisions must be made or repeat of past trendAt this area is where we have decided multiple times for the long term outlook of being bullish or extremely bearish. The last 3 times it created the "grey box" after seeing a supply rejection area (orange box), it made a huge move down to test the lows. Now it is back to that major supply area and if it repeats history like the past 2 grey box retests, you can expect a move down. If it blows past the grey box, i would be on a bullish side outlook with buying the dips at past demand areas or prior resistances. Based on extremely recent news this might breach the grey box but it is still worth looking at with a more lenient stop loss for shorting if you are looking to enter to the downside.
AMEX:SPY
by vietuser619
Bitcoin Potential Bottom and the End of 4 Years CycleHello all, Lets surf the chart! The bottom is not yet in, no one can argue. Though catching the bottom is not a key here because we can not predict the depth of the decline, to identify the low it is necessary to time the best buy for long term hold (for the x gains) and trade for short term. In short, risk and reward potential. Time is an important factor which allows me to be a student of cycles especially the one with Bitcoin. Is it a perfect indicator? Not perfect but good. Knowing that the Bitcoin cycle started in Dec 2018 lows and confirmed in Feb 2019 gives us the idea that Q4 2022 is the end of BTC 4 Years Cycle and could extend to January 2023. In this range we could expect lows and that buying this dip could be a good risk/reward for the long term. As bitcoin price starts a steady grind to its new cycle, I will begin to share my ideas as I walk through it. Hope we learn together from here onwards. Sharing from the chart are scenarios of the different possibilities I am expecting for Bitcoin regardless of the fundamentals and why this level is significant in the upcoming days. For 20 weeks or so, Bitcoin remains above strong support at 18k to 20k, this is the key level from the 2017 cycle top so it is imperative that the demand in this area is high since it is known that Bitcoin can NEVER go below its all time high. However, 18k support is broken and price crashes to sub 15k in one day. The probability of going lower is increasing given bitcoin history of 85% - 90% drawdowns which can send it to 10k to 13k area. PLUS the increasing market sentiment, FTX crash, its contagion in the ecosystem and Bitcoin is dead right at the timing band of 4 years cycle lows. Will it bounce from here? If we look at 2017 top to bottom (black arrows), it took 52 weeks to complete and then followed by 8 weeks of accumulation before the bounce. Note also is the amount of capitulation in all the lows (red arrows) and it is decreasing as time goes by. It is in 53 weeks now and considering the above scenarios, two things to expect. Zooming out the current price action, BTC found support at 15k with daily closing at sub 16k. I expect it to test 18k, a support now turned resistance and if rejected, it will then go back down to 15k and range bound from there. Above $18200, it's a LONG spot. But if 15k is broken then the continuation of the downtrend is likely to be at 13k to 14k where it could find immediate support in the short term. This is it for now. Thank you for reading and will update soon. Appreciate the comments, supporting ideas as well as contradicting ideas.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by e_Surfin4Trades