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Failed Follow Through Days and 2022The the S&P 500 bear market statistics for the past 50+ years show that the average number of Failed Follow Through Days (FTDs) is 5. However, in the stagflation market of 1973-74, characterised by rising inflation and declining economic growth, there were a shocking 9 failed FTDs! If we exclude the two short bear markets of 1982 (only 53 days) and 2020 (V shape), then the average Failed FTDs is just a bit over 6. This might indicatate a historical precedent case for a stronger rally here Note, a distribution day, within the first five trading sessions after the market has a FTD, has led to a failure of the FTD 70% of the time. Also note, undercutting the rally day from the FTD implies a 95% failure rate
SP:SPX
by TintinTrading
1
SPY TURN AROUND OR BEARISH?The top purple line is a good representation of what happens when it breaks that resistance. The last time it did it was able to reach the 200ma. I don't believe it'll do that in these conditions. I believe it'll take a hard turn back down especially with people taking profits after the huge gap up today. Similar to Mon 12, Sep '22. I think this rally is a bull trap to get people to buy near resistance before taking a hard turn downwards on unexpected news.
AMEX:SPY
by KinCobalt
MARKETBy comparing bitcoin and gold and stock indices and analyzing the DXY index presented in the previous post, it is quite clear that the crypto market's compliance with other markets has been lost, and that too only with the fight of two exchange managers and some childish tweets to provide personal liquidity. While Bitcoin's conditions were better than other assets in the past weeks and it was able to maintain its position in the support area of ​​18500. However, it is expected that this area, which will act as resistance, will be withdrawn in the coming weeks, because the macroeconomic conditions that were announced with the inflation data and unemployment claimants today have created a suitable situation for the growth of risk markets.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by MrHunterTradeInsight
Selling ongoing break of USDCHF low.USDCHF - 13h expiry - We look to Sell a break of 0.9835 (stop at 0.9861) Our short term bias remains negative. There is no clear indication that the downward move is coming to an end. A break of yesterdays low would confirm bearish momentum. We look for losses to be extended today. Our profit targets will be 0.9771 and 0.9761 Resistance: 0.9880 / 0.9920 / 0.9950 Support: 0.9836 / 0.9800 / 0.9780 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Short
by OANDA
¡A Big Liquidity Gap!Introduce Hello trading community! As can be expected, the crypto market will suffer after the Binance sell-off. Not only that, but data on Alameda's balance sheet was also leaked, leading to a possible bankruptcy of the company. Fundamentals It is normal for a black swan with these characteristics to have an impact on all cryptocurrencies, including BTC, and the same way it happened with LUNA, with liquidations of positions and massive price drops. Additionally, the price of BTC found no buyers above 21080K, causing the price to break through this support and retreat to the 20K area. Today we have the US midterm elections and Thursday's expected CPI data. as two events that may bring volatility to the market. DXY is showing no bullish signs, and if it breaks below 110, it could fall to the support area between 108 and 109. FTT/USDT technical analysis On the daily chart, we can see a breakout of a descending triangle with a target between $10 and $12. There is no liquidity or related buying in this area. Also, the MACD has yet to complete its bearish development and the RSI 14 is at the 23 level. Good deal and profit! !
F
by CRYPTONIA5
solana in a bad situation :According to CoinMarketCap, SOL is the tenth largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, but it may lose its position at the top as a result of the growing drama surrounding the FTX exchange. FTT and SOL tokens have been sold off after information about the possible insolvency of Alameda Research, an affiliate of FTX, and its CEO Sam Bankman-Fried became public. While it is clear that FTT is a native FTX token and a major asset in Alameda accounts, little is known about Solana. At the same time, Alameda has $1.2 billion in SOL on its balance sheets, according to the data. Experts note in this regard that, in addition to the pressure on the SOL price caused by
Short
by wisemanofc
2
2B Trading PatternIn an uptrend, if a higher high is made but fails to carry through, and then prices drop below the previous high, then the trend is apt to reverse. The converse is true for down trends. This observation applies in any of the three trends; short-term, intermediate-term, or long-term. A 2B on a minor high or low will usually occur within one day or less of the time the high or low is made. For 2B's on intermediate highs or lows preceding a correction, the new high or low point will usually break within three to five days. At major market turning points, long-term 2B's, the new high or low will usually break within seven to ten days. In the stock market, after the new high is made, the failure to carry forward usually occurs on low to normal volume, and the confirmation of a reversal occurs on higher volume. The above can be found on the internet, just look up 2B chart pattern. I would usually recommend your default as being, sell low, buy lower. & buy high, sell higher. My next trading mantra would be that double bottoms are not Support, and double tops are not Resistance. They are where the stops are. And therefore a major target. But every now and then the market does turn. After a period of impulsive moves, the market comes to rest and goes into a consolidation. It may make one last attempt at continuing the prevailing trend, only to find there are fewer market participants willing to push it on. This is when you look for 2B's
UEducation
by Macrobriefing
MH Indicator on GBP/USD Vs. EUR/USD: Intra-day case study5-trade days (26th October 2022 to 01st November 2022), the MH (Market Hedge) Indicator was used to spot the Buying/Selling opportunity in the most correlated currency pairs of the World. In case of pairs trading one asset (GBP/USD) is bought/sold and simultaneously the other asset (EUR/USD) is sold/bought. In Currency trade, the most widely used leverage is 1:100, however, in the present case study, the leverage ratio was kept 1:50 (to be safer). Results: ROI was 57.26% in total of all the trades closed as encircled in the Chart. Out of the total 20 closed trades, only one was closed with losses (only $ 1.67 USD), highest profit from one trade was $ 7.38 USD, closed at 8:30 pm on 28th October 2022. Hence, you may assume the Risk-Reward ratio as 1:20 (0.05). Happy trading with MH Indicator Team, InvestSystemic
by InvestSystemic
Catching a Falling Knife with AMD on the 30 minute chartBetting on a price increase after a sharp price decrease is called "catching a falling knife". In fact, you may have heard someone say, "don't try to catch a falling knife." The analogy is meant to sound dangerous because it is very risky to buy a stock that is dropping rapidly. The hope is that if you time it right, you will get in at the bottom and make big profits. The opposite is true as well, but catching a knife thrown upward sounds like an even worse idea. I would like to suggest that it's possible to profit from a knife-catching strategy if you manage your risk and timing properly. In the chart for AMD, I've marked the opportunities to catch a falling (or rising) knife, which have been occurring on a daily basis for the past week. For AMD, a price bottom has typically been forming after the price has dropped significantly over the previous day. And a top has formed after the price has risen significantly over the previous day. Sometimes it's not clear if a bottom or top has formed such as on October 25. In that case, it's a coin flip (50% chance of being right). The key to success in this strategy is to set a tight stop loss and to buy or sell short during the pre-market (yellow-shaded area). There were at least 6 excellent opportunities last week to do this. Unfortunately, I wasn't paying attention to AMD until the morning of Friday, October 28. I saw the opportunity and realized that there was no way my order would have a chance to go through when the market opened if the price was making a dramatic move. I bought a half hour before the market opened (9:00 AM Eastern) and set my stop loss below the low reached post-market the previous day. Once the market opened, the price was already climbing and I got out before 10:00 AM Eastern. My risk-reward ratio was 1:5. That is, I risked 1 dollar for every 5 dollars I profited. Not too shabby. It appears that Monday is going to be another great opportunity, and I will be watching the pre-market closely. I will be setting a stop loss at 62.30 and a take profit of around 59.50. Although I will be watching for the right time to get out, which is usually when the price reverses, and I chicken out as I did on the 28th. Monday's trade will be going against the larger trend which I believe is heading to 73 by the end of November. See the link to my longer-term analysis of AMD. This is not a 100% fool-proof strategy, and the conditions that make this look easy can change completely and without notice. Also, the volatility can stop you out too soon. Take a look at October 22 for an example of where I would have been stopped out and lost out on the subsequent big move. Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor, and the above statements are not investment advice. My comments are only intended for educational purposes. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions. I'd like to add that developing these analyses is a powerful educational tool for the one doing the analysis (namely me). It helps me formulate my thoughts and plan my trades so that I can make the best decisions possible. I'm training my brain to eventually do this automatically when I glance at a chart. It's a skill that I hope will benefit me for the rest of my life. I hope you enjoyed reading as much as I did writing. Give some thought to publishing your own ideas. I highly recommend it. Have a profitable week!
NASDAQ:AMD
by cdnbuzzard