Market Exposure after FTDIBD Market School indicator suggest we have a clear sky to start testing waters. Here is what the methodology has flagged after the recent Rally Day.
Annotations
1 = Most recent unbroken Rally Day
2 = Follow Through Day
3 = Confirming Buy signal (named B3)
4 = Additional Follow Through Day + Confirming Buy Signal (B8)
5 = Permitable Market Exposure as per the methodology
My approach!
I do not have an exposure of 90% currently as 5 suggests. This is only guidence. I am more conservative and rather have taken a few tiny pilot positions. I want to see that the action is confirming. We are reaching the 21EMA on SP500 and hence I expect some stalling here. We also have an important earnings in the recent days, which means that there could be abrupt failure.
Market
Market upUPS, 3M and General Motors all posted better-than-expected earnings. Shares of UPS and GM rose in early trading, but 3M dipped 1.6%.
Coca-Cola also reported stronger-than-forecast earnings, sending the stock up 1%.
So far this season, companies have proven they may be faring better than anticipated.
Market Maker Pattern with Multiple Long / Short TradesIf this Market Maker pattern plays out in symmetry to the left side, which is more visible even on the 5m chart, then there will be several long opportunities and several short opportunities with opportunity to either reverse positions right into the next drop or retrace. There is also a large red candle on the left side, seen on linked chart of 30m timeframe, that was only partially recovered and these red candles typically always get recovered by a corresponding green candle to the right side of the chart. Thatt gives additional strength to the idea that price will return to previous high of the structure to reclain the red candle. And each of these drop and recoveries is a significant percentage move, ranging from 9% to 30% and with 20x leverage that could make for a fairly safe and profitable series of plays.
Of course, these patterns don't always play out completely symmetrical, but even if it fulfills a few of the moves or does so in smaller proportion to the moves on the left side, it's still a solid opportunity due to likelihood of move to upside to reclaim red candle and then likelihood of fulfillment of at least approximate fulfillment of the markdown / drop phase of the pattern.
BTC Detailed Top-Down Analysis - Day 89Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard Nasr, as known as theSignalyst.
89 out of 500 days done.
I truly appreciate your continuous support everyone!
Let me know if you like the series, and if you would like me to change or add anything.
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good Luck!.
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
Bulls are not strong enough, the pair is in the line of descend!Hello traders! We are seeing that the oil demand is declinig, affecting the pair and making bulls be aware of future declines. Also we found in the charts a recongnize pattern of a head and shoulders, with a target around 1.30 if it breaks the support among the 1.36 level. The FED is fighting againts the ghost of recession and the 10 years bonds are fearing a descend from a 15 years top. Some fed officials are concernign about the oversizing uploads. This facts can draw a direction towards a new trend in the markets. Technically the level of 1.36152 is a support to watch. If the bears could break this level, we could see the prince drop to 1.33102 and 1.30 if the strong of the bears keep going. This is not financial advice, good trades and profits!!
I have something for you (-.-)hello
4 important target's on the chart.
I belive we still can see more downside , IMO 12085 is bitcoin current cycle bottom and we have time to see it in the next day's and week's !
but in worst case scenario for the longer term, I belive $5900 can be absolute market bootom for BTC
The Psychology of The Market Cycle Explained
The market cycles can be explained from the psychology side of the average investor.
Throughout the various stages that develop in the market, the investor's emotions are also cyclical according to the "mood" of the market.
Market movements are explained by the investor when often hope and fear motivate his thoughts and actions and can predict his future actions.
Throughout the various stages that develop in the market, the investor's emotions are also cyclical according to the "mood" of the market.
The range of emotions ranges from despair to euphoria, and investors usually drive the wrong actions.
Awareness of the psychological side of the masses helps to avoid the effects of negative or positive sentiment and remain feckless on the market. In addition, we can also identify a stage or strengthen our position on the state of the market, explaining investors' feelings.
Once you understand this chart, you can control your emotions and deal without your hurt and with only your mind.
As this market cycle chart is repeating all the time, if you understand where you are located in the graph at any moment, you can take a cold decision of buy or sell a particular asset to maximize gains.
DXY - Over-Bought Zone! Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst.
DXY has been overall bullish for a while trading inside the brown rising channel . However, it is currently approaching the upper bound / upper brown trendline, which I consider a non-horizontal resistance and over-bought zone.
Moreover, the zone 113 - 114 is a horizontal resistance zone .
So the highlighted purple circle is a strong area to look for sell setups as it is the intersection of the blue resistance zone and upper brown trendline. (acting as non-horizontal resistance)
As per my trading style:
Since DXY is sitting inside the purple zone, I will be looking for bearish reversal setups (like a double top pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
¡Only the begining, stay alert!Hello trader comunity! We are seeing that the markets want to change their trend. More especifically the people thats is behind the computers wants to make gtains after two trimesters in loss. In the other hand, the DXY is fatally crushing after reach the level of 114 and we are seeing lower highs as the index cling to supports. The pair USDJPY after reach the level of 152 gets a reaction from the bears of the pair and then found support in the level of 147 (ema 21). Next week we have de interest rate decision of the Bank of Japan, event that could bring volatily to the pair. But what we must see is how the DXY start the week, anf if it continuos dropping behind 112 ( acting as resistance), we expect a recover from the US500, pairs against the dolar, and the crypto market. This is not a financial advice, good trades and profits!
EURUSD(liquidity proxy)if BO parity, $ falls, gold,equity rallyEURUSD may be used as a liquidity proxy. It has been falling for a long time in a big down channel &
Is now bouncing right at the dotted median line. (4Q is historically bullish going into new year specially on
midterm election years, where markets bottom in late October)
Watch closely if EURUSD will break above parity 1:1 again in a big move. Then most probably that is where
the 4Q rally shall start extending to 1Q2023. I still believe there is still a wave 5 down for the C wave of the big ABC correction from ATH. In 2Q2023, ABC may end in a double bottom near the dotted median or even much lower to the lower channel in case of a recession, which is more probable in Europe than in the US.
After ABC completes sometime before end of recession. Equities will rally to the start of a new EW cycle.
Not trading advice
Bitcoin Bullish or BearishMany people want to trade BTC, claiming that it's headed to 10k or that a relief rally to 30k will come. There is no edge, no implied strength, and even not that much weakness, a trade in either direction with a stop loss will probably get wiped out.
However, if one was to look at the chart there are a few things that are evident:
- Bullish divergence developing after a failed breakdown and bearish divergence that played out in a very weak manner.
- Three consecutive marginal lower lows holding support again implying accumulation and seller exhaustion.
- And lastly the breaking of a downward-sloping trendline that has acted as resistance on 5 different occasions.
During a normal market, I would be longing and would be extremely bullish. However, this is not a normal market and during a bear market, the chances of this playing out are extremely low. The next few days will be to see if the trendline break is key.
Stay posted as I WILL UPDATE AND TAKE A TRADE IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS.