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Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 17–21, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📉 Anticipated Federal Reserve Rate Decision 📉: The Federal Reserve is scheduled to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday, March 19. Markets widely expect the Fed to maintain the current rates between 4.25% and 4.5%, following favorable inflation data. Investors will closely analyze the Fed's quarterly economic projections and Chair Jerome Powell's remarks for insights into future monetary policy. 🇨🇳📈 China's Economic Stimulus Measures 📈: China has announced plans to implement measures aimed at reviving domestic consumption. This initiative is expected to bolster global markets, including the U.S., as increased Chinese consumption can lead to higher demand for international goods and services. ​ 🇯🇵🏦 Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Decision 🏦: The Bank of Japan is set to announce its interest rate decision on March 20. While specific expectations are not detailed, any changes or guidance provided could have implications for global financial markets, including currency and equity markets. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Monday, March 17: 🛒 Retail Sales (8:30 AM ET) 🛒:This report measures the total receipts of retail stores, providing insight into consumer spending trends. Forecast: +0.2% month-over-month​ Previous: +0.3% month-over-month​ 📅 Wednesday, March 19: 🏠 Existing Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠:This data indicates the annualized number of previously constructed homes sold during the previous month, reflecting housing market conditions. Forecast: 5.50 million annualized units​ Previous: 5.47 million annualized units​ 📅 Thursday, March 20: 🏦 Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision (2:00 PM ET) 🏦:The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announces its decision on short-term interest rates, influencing borrowing costs and economic activity. Forecast: No change, maintaining rates at 4.25%–4.50% Previous: 4.25%–4.50% ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Potential Path of the Altcoin Market?Trading Family, To say that our altcoin market has been disappointing would be the understatement of the year. While there definitely have been some winners (I have held Solana through the $8 low), the majority have been a large disappointment. In fact, the last I read, only 42 altcoins have outperformed Bitcoin since the bear market bottom was put in. This is an incredible stat to think about and very telling. Altcoin traders have a difficult task in beating the BTC hodl'ers for sure. However, recently there have been some hidden indications that our altcoin market will soon increase our odds of success. First of all, Bitcoin's low fees. Low fees on the Bitcoin blockchain is often a hidden health indicator for the coin signaling weak demand. People often see low fees as a positive thing. But what's actually happening here is that there is low demand for transacting on the chain, therefore, in order to increase the demand, transaction fees are forced down. Weaker demand does seem to correlate with what the BTC dominance chart is showing us. You can see from the chart that we have a large sell side liquidity block that has formed, indicating large sell side volume in dominance. Additionally, my indicator has flashed a red dot, signaling that it is time for dominance to drop. We also have our RSI and Macd, crossing down. And if we break from that channel, dominance drop momentum should accelerate. This brings me to our TOTAL3 chart which is all altcoins excluding Ethereum. The chart is showing us that we have reached an extremely critical support trendline. Price is currently bouncing from it. Additionally, there are large volumes of buyers at this point. You can observe this by the VRVP candles and the liquidity blocks indicator. But contrary to BTC.D in which the RSI and Macd were crossing down, TOTAL3 shows our RSI and Macd crossing up! This is bullish for alts. Finally, it is a great sign to see that our "M" pattern has looked to have completed right at our point of support. I have drawn a projected pathway from here. In the first part of our next week, we may see a bit more pump. News of the passing continuing resolution here in the U.S. is still trickling out. Monday, as stock traders jump back in, I would imagine we see more pump as traders feel good about the averted gov't shutdown. This may trickle into Tuesday. But then Wed. is the Fed's day. We are expecting further pause to interest rate. Everyone will be listening to the Fed speak and parsing every syllable that is uttered from J. Pow's tongue. What is says and the bias that is interpreted will be key. I am expecting mostly a non-event here. Which means that bullish bias may wane once again. Crypto, mostly altcoins, really only pump on good news. But negative and even neutral news is a sell to sideways event. Thus, I expect we may hit another local top around Wed. afternoon at which point the altcoin market starts to sell a bit again OR it simply continues sideways again for a few more weeks. Sooner or later though, I believe we are headed towards that 1.3 trillion resistance. It is worthwhile considering to stay in a holding pattern unless we drop below our all-important support. Watch this line closely and draw it on your charts. It will be key! ✌️Stew
CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL3Long
by stewdamus
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 13, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇰🇷🇺🇸 South Korea's Trade Minister Visits U.S. 🇰🇷🇺🇸: South Korea's Trade Minister, Cheong In-kyo, is visiting Washington, D.C., from March 13 to 14 to discuss trade issues, including reciprocal tariffs and investment opportunities, with U.S. counterparts. This visit aims to address concerns about tariffs following President Trump's comments regarding disparities between U.S. and South Korean tariffs. The outcome of these discussions could impact sectors reliant on U.S.-South Korea trade relations. ​ 🇩🇪🛠️ German Debt Reform Debates 🇩🇪🛠️: Germany's Bundestag is set to begin debates on debt reform plans starting March 13, focusing on increasing infrastructure spending and reforming state borrowing rules to fund defense. The proposed creation of a €500 billion infrastructure fund aims to stimulate the economy. These reforms could influence European economic stability, indirectly affecting U.S. markets through global economic interconnections. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Thursday, March 13: 🏭 Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 AM ET) 🏭:The PPI measures the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers, offering insights into wholesale inflation trends. Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month​ Previous: +0.4% month-over-month​ 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉:This weekly report indicates the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time, providing insight into the labor market's health. Forecast: 226K Previous: 221K ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
2
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 12, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ceasefire Proposal in Ukraine 🇺🇦🇷🇺: Ukraine has expressed willingness to accept a month-long ceasefire proposal, leading to a surge in the euro to five-month highs. This development has introduced volatility in European and U.S. equity markets, influenced by ongoing U.S. tariff plans. ​ 🇺🇸🇨🇦 U.S. Tariff Increases on Canadian Imports 🇺🇸🇨🇦: President Trump has threatened to double tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum imports to 50%, escalating trade tensions and contributing to a deepening stock market sell-off. This move has raised concerns about inflation and economic growth, affecting investor confidence. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Wednesday, March 12: 📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET) 📈:The CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services, serving as a key indicator of inflation. Forecast: +0.2% month-over-month​ Previous: +0.3% month-over-month​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 11, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇯🇵🤝 Japan-U.S. Trade Discussions 🤝: Japanese Trade Minister Yoji Muto is visiting Washington from March 9–11 to engage in discussions with U.S. officials. The talks aim to strengthen economic ties and address trade concerns, including potential exemptions for Japanese exports from proposed U.S. tariffs. These negotiations could influence sectors such as automotive and steel, impacting market dynamics. 🇨🇳📊 China's National People's Congress (NPC) Developments 📊: The 2025 National People's Congress is underway in Beijing from March 5–11. Key economic targets and policy directions set during the NPC may affect global markets, including the U.S., especially in areas related to trade, technology, and foreign investment.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, March 11: 📄 JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM ET) 📄:This report provides data on job openings, hires, and separations, offering a comprehensive view of the labor market's dynamics. Forecast: 7.71 million Previous: 7.6 million​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
$1.51 to $3.25 casually DOUBLED while rest of the market crashes$1.51 to $3.25 casually DOUBLED today after being mentioned in chat many times Sweet catch on NASDAQ:HMR 👏🤑 All while the rest of the market continues to hits new lows on a big red day NASDAQ:TSLA NASDAQ:NVDA AMEX:SPY NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:DIA NASDAQ:META NASDAQ:AMZN NASDAQ:GOOG Got to love these type of stocks AEON 1.26 - 1.33 (+5.5%) HMR 3.02 - 3.16 (+4.6%) Total profit today: +10.1% Nice profit today again while the rest of the market goes into deeper red. Bulletproof strategy delivers again, no matter the overall market conditions. Congrats! See you in the morning!
NASDAQ:HMR
by ProfitTradeRoom
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 10–14, 2025 🔮🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇨🇳📉 China's Retaliatory Tariffs 📉: In response to U.S. tariffs, China has imposed up to 15% tariffs on U.S. products, including cotton, chicken, corn, and soybeans. This escalation raises concerns about a potential global trade war, which could negatively impact U.S. exporters and broader market sentiment. 🇪🇺💶 European Fiscal Expansion 💶: Germany has announced significant increases in defense and infrastructure spending, marking a shift in fiscal policy. This move may stimulate European economic growth, potentially affecting U.S. markets through interconnected global trade and investment channels. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Wednesday, March 12: 📈 Consumer Price Index (CPI) (8:30 AM ET) 📈:The CPI measures the average change over time in prices paid by urban consumers for a basket of goods and services, serving as a key indicator of inflation. Forecast: +0.2% month-over-month​ Previous: +0.3% month-over-month​ 📅 Thursday, March 13: 🏭 Producer Price Index (PPI) (8:30 AM ET) 🏭:The PPI reflects the average change over time in selling prices received by domestic producers, offering insights into wholesale inflation trends. Forecast: +0.1% month-over-month​ Previous: +0.2% month-over-month​ 📅 Friday, March 14: 🛒 University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (10:00 AM ET) 🛒:This index measures consumer confidence regarding personal finances, business conditions, and purchasing power, providing insights into consumer sentiment. Forecast: 95.0​ Previous: 96.4​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 7, 2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report 📊: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is set to release the February employment report on Friday, March 7. Economists expect an increase of approximately 133,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%.​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Friday, March 7: 👷‍♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) 👷‍♂️: Forecast: +133K jobs​ Previous: +150K jobs​ This report indicates the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector, and is a key indicator of employment trends. 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: Forecast: 4.0%​ Previous: 4.0%​ This metric represents the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month. 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) 💵: Forecast: +0.3% month-over-month​ Previous: +0.2% month-over-month​ This metric indicates the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends. ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
2
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 4, 2025 🔮🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 Implementation of U.S. Tariffs 📈: Effective today, the United States has imposed a 25% tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff on imports from China. These measures aim to address trade imbalances and protect domestic industries. ​ 🇺🇸🏛️ Presidential Address to Congress 🏛️: President Donald Trump is scheduled to deliver his first address to Congress since his re-election, where he is expected to discuss the newly implemented tariffs and their anticipated impact on the U.S. economy. ​ investopedia.com 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, March 4: 🏛️ Treasury Auctions 🏛️: 8-Week Bill Auction (6:00 AM ET): The U.S. Department of the Treasury will auction 8-week bills, providing insights into short-term government borrowing costs.​ 17-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): A 17-week bill auction will also take place, offering additional perspective on investor demand for U.S. debt instruments.​ 4-Week Bill Auction (10:00 AM ET): The Treasury will auction 4-week bills, contributing to the understanding of immediate-term borrowing conditions.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Weekly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025🔮 Weekly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for March 3 – March 7, 2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📊 Anticipated U.S. Jobs Report 📊: The Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the February employment report on Friday, March 7. Economists expect an increase of approximately 133,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4%. ​ 🇪🇺💶 ECB Interest Rate Decision 💶: The European Central Bank is scheduled to announce its monetary policy decision on Thursday, March 6. Markets anticipate a 0.25% rate cut, which would adjust the deposit facility rate to 2.5%. ​ 🇨🇳📈 China's Economic Targets 📈: During the National People's Congress, China is expected to set its economic growth target at around 5% for the year. The government may introduce measures to boost consumption and support growth amid global economic uncertainties. ​ 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Monday, March 3: 🏭 ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏭: This index measures the health of the U.S. manufacturing sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion, while below 50 signifies contraction.​ 📅 Wednesday, March 5: 🏢 ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET) 🏢: This index assesses the performance of the U.S. services sector, with readings above 50 indicating expansion.​ Trading Economics 📅 Thursday, March 6: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly data indicating the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits for the first time.​ 📦 Factory Orders (10:00 AM ET) 📦: This report details the dollar level of new orders for both durable and non-durable goods, providing insight into manufacturing demand.​ 📅 Friday, March 7: 👷‍♂️ Nonfarm Payrolls (8:30 AM ET) 👷‍♂️: A key indicator of employment trends, reflecting the number of jobs added or lost in the economy, excluding the farming sector.​ 📈 Unemployment Rate (8:30 AM ET) 📈: The percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous month.​ 💵 Average Hourly Earnings (8:30 AM ET) 💵: This metric indicates the month-over-month change in wages, providing insight into consumer income trends.​ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This information is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Always consult with a professional financial advisor before making investment decisions.⚠️​ 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPY
by TrendTao
Why is the market crashing?Why Did Bitcoin Crash to $78K? Here’s What’s Driving the Panic Bitcoin soared to an all-time high of $109K in January 2025, but last night, it crashed to $78K, a brutal 26% drop, leaving it hovering around $80K. The market’s in full panic mode, and after digging into the latest news, here’s why: Trump tariffs, the Bybit hack, and a mix of other pressures are to blame. 1. Trump Tariffs: Trade War Chaos The Trump administration’s new tariffs, 25% on Mexico and Canada, 10% on China, are shaking up global trade. Here’s the impact on Bitcoin: Uncertainty Surge: Higher costs and trade disruptions spook investors. Risk-Off Mood: People ditch volatile assets like Bitcoin for safer bets like bonds. Sell-Off Trigger: The fear of an economic slowdown is hitting crypto hard. These tariffs are a major reason for the market’s jitters. 2. Bybit Hack: $1.5B Gone A massive hack hit Bybit’s Trust Wallet, with $1.5 billion in Ethereum stolen, the biggest crypto heist ever. Here’s why it’s tanking Bitcoin: Trust Shattered: Security breaches like this make everyone nervous about crypto safety. Panic Selling: Fear of more hacks or losses sparks a rush to sell. This event is amplifying the crash big time. 3. Other Crash Fuel Beyond tariffs and the hack, these factors are piling on: Macro Fears: Uncertainty over Federal Reserve rate hikes is pushing investors away from risk. Profit-Taking: After hitting $109K, big players cashed out, adding pressure. Post-Halving Dip: Bitcoin often corrects after halvings (like 2024’s), and we might be feeling that now. What’s Next for Bitcoin? This crash sucks, no doubt, tariffs and a billion-dollar hack are a nasty combo. But Bitcoin’s bounced back from worse. The panic might ease once the news settles, though recovery could take a minute. Keep an eye on trade updates and crypto security news, they’ll drive what’s next.
Long
by MonoCoinSignal
1
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.26.2025🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸🤔 U.S. Consumer Confidence Dives 🤔: American consumer confidence fell to 98.3 in February (down from 105.3 in January), The steepest one-month drop since 2021. 🇩🇪📉 German GDP Contracts 📉: Germany’s economy shrank by 0.2% in Q4 2024 (quarter-on-quarter), confirming a downturn in Europe’s largest economy. Recession concerns in the Eurozone could influence global growth sentiment as exports and industry show signs of weakness. 🇺🇸💱 Fed Rate Cut Bets Trimmed 💱: Markets are now pricing in only one 25bps rate reduction in 2025 (versus two previously expected), 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Wednesday, Feb 26: 🏠 MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 ET) 🏠: Last week’s applications fell -6.6% amid rising interest rates. Traders will watch if lower demand continues, as higher borrowing costs cool the housing market. 🏠 New Home Sales (10:00 ET) 🏠: Consensus expects around 680K units (vs 698K in December). This Jan report will show if higher mortgage rates are slowing home sales or if housing demand remains resilient to start 2025. 🛢️ EIA Crude Oil Inventories (10:30 ET) 🛢️: Last week, inventories rose to about 432.5 million barrels. A larger-than-expected draw could boost oil prices, while a build might ease price pressures (and inflation concerns). 💬 Fed’s Bostic Speaks (12:00 ET) 💬: Markets will monitor his commentary for any hints on monetary policy or growth/inflation views. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #tomorrow #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
Nightly $SPY / $SPX Scenarios for 2.25.2025🔮 Nightly AMEX:SPY / SP:SPX Scenarios for 2.25.2025 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs on Canada and Mexico 📈: President Donald Trump has confirmed that tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico will proceed on March 4, 2025. This decision may impact trade relations and market dynamics. 🇰🇷💰 Bank of Korea Rate Cut 💰: The Bank of Korea is expected to reduce its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.75% on February 25, aiming to support economic growth amid recent slowdowns. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, Feb 25: 🏠 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET) 🏠: Provides data on home prices across 20 major U.S. cities, offering insights into the housing market trends. 📈 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 📈: Measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions. Analysts forecast a slight dip in February to 102.1 from January's 104.1, indicating potential shifts in consumer behavior. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
1
Weekly Market Outlook: February 24 – 28, 2025 🔮 🔮 🌍 Market-Moving News 🌍: 🇺🇸📈 U.S. Tariffs Implementation 📈: President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose a 25% tariff on imported automobiles, pharmaceuticals, and lumber products, set to take effect on April 2, 2025. This move aims to protect domestic industries but has raised concerns about potential impacts on global trade relations. 🇺🇦🇷🇺 Diplomatic Efforts 🇺🇦🇷🇺: This week marks the third anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Key events include French President Emmanuel Macron visiting President Trump in Washington and a virtual G7 meeting to discuss potential resolutions to the ongoing conflict. 📊 Key Data Releases 📊: 📅 Tuesday, Feb 25: 🏠 S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (9:00 AM ET) 🏠: Provides data on home prices across 20 major U.S. cities. 📈 Consumer Confidence Index (10:00 AM ET) 📈: Measures consumer sentiment regarding economic conditions. Analysts forecast a slight dip in February to 102.6 from January's 104.1. 📅 Wednesday, Feb 26: 🏠 New Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Reports the number of newly constructed homes sold in the previous month. Economists predict a modest decline to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 680,000 homes from December's 698,000. 📅 Thursday, Feb 27: 📉 Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM ET) 📉: Weekly report on the number of individuals filing for unemployment benefits. 📊 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Second Estimate (8:30 AM ET) 📊: Revised estimate of the nation's economic growth for Q4 2024. The initial reading showed a 2.3% annual growth rate, slightly below expectations. 🛠️ Durable Goods Orders (8:30 AM ET) 🛠️: Indicates new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of long-lasting goods. 📅 Friday, Feb 28: 💰 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index (8:30 AM ET) 💰: The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. 💳 Personal Income and Outlays (8:30 AM ET) 💳: Reports changes in personal income and spending. 🏠 Pending Home Sales (10:00 AM ET) 🏠: Measures housing contract activity for existing single-family homes. 📌 #trading #stockmarket #economy #news #trendtao #charting #technicalanalysis
AMEX:SPYLong
by TrendTao
xauusd analysis for coming weekKey Factors Influencing XAU/USD Monetary Policy & Interest Rates: By early 2025, the Federal Reserve’s stance will be critical. If rate cuts are underway (due to recession risks or controlled inflation), gold could rally as the USD weakens. Conversely, a "higher-for-longer" rate policy could cap gains. Watch for Fed speeches and the PCE inflation report (due late February 2025) for clues. Geopolitical Risks: Escalations in conflicts, trade tensions, or unexpected crises (e.g., energy disruptions, elections) could trigger safe-haven demand for gold. USD Strength: A strong dollar (e.g., from robust U.S. economic data) may pressure gold. Monitor the DXY Index for inverse correlations. Scenario-Based Outlook Bullish Case: Fed dovishness + weak USD + geopolitical instability → Rally toward $2,100–2,150/oz. Bearish Case: Hawkish Fed + strong U.S. data + risk-on sentiment → Decline toward $1,900–1,850/oz. Trading Strategy Long-term investors: Accumulate near $1,920–1,950/oz if fundamentals align with bullish drivers. Critical Events to Monitor Fed Chair Powell’s testimony (if scheduled). U.S. Q4 GDP revisions (February 27, 2025). Global PMI data (manufacturing/services activity). Geopolitical developments (e.g., U.S.-China relations, Middle East tensions). Conclusion Gold’s trajectory will hinge on the interplay between Fed policy, the dollar, and risk sentiment. While technicals suggest a range-bound market between $1,900–2,080/oz, prepare for volatility around key data releases. Always use risk management tools (stop-loss, position sizing) given the uncertainty of long-term forecasts. more detailed video analysis will be published soon BOOST US SHARE US
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by realmillionairefx