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SPY will bottom before FED ends rate hikes:see contrarian viewLast August 27 I already gave the bearish scenario wherein the FED continues even into a recession. The downsides were 350, 320 & 280 IF SPY breaks below 400 & 380. Today, Friday, SPY seems to be doing an oversold bounce. So let us assume the contrarian role against the market’s extreme pessimism. What if the market sentiment changes & the market suddenly realizes that the FED is just pretending to be very hawkish just to kill that big rally from June bottom of 362? From June low, SPY rallied a little more than 61.8% Fibonacci to be stopped by the ma200 at 431. From there it reversed down exactly to Fib 0.618 at 3900. This bullish view will take into account certain things: *The duty of the FED is not only price stability & full employment but also to fund the government. Rising interest rates will blow up the govt debt. *Inflation has gone down in commodities like gasoline, food, durable goods. Rents & wages are more sticky. Fuel prices will go down if Iran deal push through or if Saudi agrees to increase production. The US, unlike EU, has enough supply of natural gas. *A FED pause is still possible in 4Q2022 or early 2023 if inflation & the economy really slows down due to demand destruction, earnings recession, lay-offs & rising unemployment. FED may keep rates steady for a while & then continues with less hawkish hikes. If rate hike is overdone, rate cuts & QE will return quickly to save jobs, the economy & control government debt. *This may be enough for sentiment to change & for buyers to come in pushing this rebound even higher. Let us just assume that the June low of 362 is already the bottom & SPY is doing an ABC wave up. Using Fib extensions, the possible levels are 460, 476 (double top), 500 & 530. Volatility will remain high with recession fears & geopolitical uncertainties not going away soon. See the wedge down & the wedge up. FADING THE FED IS TECHNICALLY POSSIBLE but fundamentally less probable. Not trading advice
AMEX:SPYLong
by xtremerider8
FLYNN’s Market PerspectiveThe Digital Frontier. I tried to picture liquidity as it moves through the stock market. What does it look like? Water Flowing?, Icebergs? Were the exchanges like freeways of digital currency? I kept dreaming of a world I thought I would never see. And then 1 day.. You got in. That’s right man. I got in. ------------------------- Thank You to everyone who has been reading and commenting on my market ideas. I will be doing a bit of rebranding while I try to find my identity in Stock Market content creation. I started SPYvsGME during the Gamestop saga then found my niche in charting stocks & crypto. I will be keeping the TradingView handle @SpyVsGME but I will be rebranding to Flynn's Market Perspective. My plans for now are to focus on capital markets macro, charting and breaking down patterns and trading strategies with a unique perspective. Lots of new content planned including more NASDAQ. Trade safe and thanks again for your support!
NASDAQ:QQQ
by SPYvsGME
2
✅. First short setup turned GOOD - Next move looks bullishMarket seems oversold after the rejection of the 200MA. It looks like we are in time for a few rally days! Bear market rallies are the strongest. Volatility whips both ways! Historical Precedent I wanted to share the 1990 precedent that I mentioned first during early May. I would like to point to the idea that we are quite short-term oversold (by looking at the speed and distance that we came down), so if you are short might be good idea to tighten stops, since we are likely to have a couple of rally days. Also to be clear, my personal guess (which not a tradable advice but just a gut feeling) is that we will not get the Easy Dollar Environment (EDE) so quickly like in 1990 but more like until end of the year. In the meantime I guess we would chop before a clear EDE in Oct-Jan.
SP:SPXLong
by TintinTrading
US500 - Getting Ready!Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, as known as theSignalyst. As mentioned in my previous US500 idea, we will be waiting for price to approach our first support in blue 3900 - 3950 to look for buy setups. US500 dived inside the support and broke above a minor high in red. For the bulls to take over, we still need a break above the major high in gray. Which would also be a potential inverse head and shoulders neckline. Meanwhile, until the bulls take over, we would still be bullish and US500 can still dive inside the support again, or break it downward for further bearish movements. Which scenario do you think is more probable and why? Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
ULong
by TheSignalyst
9
Adjusted for inflation trendlineIn a philosophical way the money is a measure of value and all its quantity represents the resources from beneath the ground that are constantly being dug each day of our lives. Deluting the quantity of the currency supply does not change the value of every rare earth which came out of the ground to construct our physical world or the nutrients which fuel our productivity as facilitators of the constant digging process. Adjusting for the inflation even though its never 100% accurate gives us an idea where we are and where we are heading from the most fundamental perspective. Inflation can deceive, just like everybody who bought the 2000 bubble top thought they are at breakeven 8 years later.
SP:SPXShort
by FeelsFX
CADJPY BREAK OF TREND AND RE-TEST Pair: CADJPY Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, pennant pattern ————— Key Takeaway:Seen a break of support and trend line, we have just seen a retest of broken trend line using it as resistance, we just need some bearish momentum now before we can short safely ————— Level needed: need a close by 105.595 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:5 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
RLinda ! BTCUSDT-> Consolidation on a downtrend. What's next?BTCUSDT The price resumed a global downward movement after breaking the support of the ascending wedge. Since the breakdown, the price has fallen 18% and at this point, I believe that the key targets from the bottom have not been achieved. You can see on the chart that price continues to decline smoothly. After a strong momentum, there was a consolidation followed by a new momentum and price is returning to the accumulation phase - a clear lack of buyback attempts and price pullbacks to critical resistance levels. What comes next? As for the global bearish channel, price is trading near the resistance zone. My assumption is that the current overbalance of forces to the fact that the fall may continue. It is worth considering the fact that the price is still in consolidation and may trade within the range for a while longer, or make a retest of the resistance of the descending channel. False breakouts are possible, so expect a set-up when the price goes under any of these levels after the retest or a final breakout with the price fixing under the level. The targets are the 19240 support zone, the 18626 support zone and the 17622 liquidity zone. Regards, R. Linda!
Short
by RLinda
39
Bitcoin Day Trading Setups, Scalping Entries🖥️ We have determined there is a 70% chance Bitcoin will Rise from our current entry point. 📉 LONG - BTC : $20,025📉 💵 Length of trade: we are expecting BTC to hit a 250 scalp, with a high end of 300, and a minimum expectation of $175. 🕰️ Duration of trade: we are expecting this to occur in 4.5 hours of this signal; having a possibility of the Min. Profit Target being hit with a fast spike under 1.5 hours. Then we see a maximum duration of 9 hours . 📊🖥️ Indicator Shown on Chart : Scot Signal Indicator
Long
by VirlVideo
1
MarketMaking and MarketMaker. What is it and who is it?All participants in financial exchanges can be divided into two categories - market makers, who set the mood in the market, and market makers, private investors with small capital. Market makers ( they are in minority ) will always manipulate market makers ( they are in majority ). What is a market maker, who he is, what he does at the exchange and why he is needed? WHO IS A MARKET MAKER AT THE STOCK EXCHANGE? This is a professional in the market with very large money, without whom trading is impossible - because this figure is considered a key player in the market and moves the price. Most often, this is the whole financial organization. MARKETMAKER is the one who creates and maintains the liquidity level of exchange , currency , cryptocurrency , futures instruments , etc. It is only possible to make transactions on the market through the market maker, who regulates the processes so that the exchange is not dominated by only sellers or buyers. The MARKETMAKER is obliged to buy even if the market is dominated by sellers and even if it leads to losses. And when the market is dominated by buyers, the market maker must sell in order to balance the market. The main purpose of the market maker is not to make money, but to regulate supply and demand, to maintain liquidity. CATEGORIES OF MARKETMAKERS Large commercial banks, but not by themselves, but united in groups: they are called institutional market makers. Brokerage companies Dealing centers Investment funds Private investors with significant capital. WHY DO WE NEED A MARKETMAKER? It stabilizes the market, controls price movements, satisfies traders' demand. And since large financial institutions take on this role, they can be both sellers and buyers. The market maker makes a huge number of deals every day and ensures the liquidity of assets. The peculiarity of their work is that market makers can support the quote both in the buy and sell direction simultaneously on the same financial instrument, which makes the price move more smoothly and price gaps disappear. TASKS OF MARKET MAKERS Ensure profitable deals for all participants To maintain sufficient liquidity for any instrument throughout the trading session To accumulate orders within the instrument being traded Find and consolidate the best price offers and record them in the price book Provide all participants with information on current quotes as soon as possible WHAT AND HOW DO MARKET MAKERS MAKE MONEY? The best way to make money on the exchange is to be able to correctly predict large price movements and timely open positions in this direction. No market maker can do it on a large scale, but a small impulse is enough to start the process of a large price movement. And for this market maker first forms a trend in the direction he needs, after which he acts in the opposite direction. Thus, the market maker makes a profit, while other participants lose more or less. Since market makers are the first to review current orders, they are the first to find out about the emergence of a trend in one direction or another and do everything necessary to balance the market and not allow a large surge of volatility. For the fact that he keeps the market price of the instrument in the predetermined limits, the market maker receives a significant discount on the commissions. And his profit is the difference between the bid and ask prices, which is called the dealing spread. Because the exchange is interested in maintaining the liquidity of assets, it encourages healthy competition and advocates the presence of several market makers on one floor. It reduces the cost of transactions, increases the speed of transactions and makes pricing transparent. Even the exchange rules often contain a clause that a deal is legal if a market maker is involved, i.e. it is quite a significant and influential market player. HOW DOES THE MARKET MAKER WORK? He establishes a connection with his clients through a program, analyzes the market and executes orders of his broker's clients. Often he prefers to work with mid-sized brokers to have the necessary volume of transactions to make money. Marketmaking. Order-Making and Order-Making. The function of Order-Making is to watch a particular company's stock and make predictions. Order-taking is to execute traders' orders and take additional profits. HOW DOES PROFIT TAKING TAKE PLACE? Like other market participants, market makers can also incur losses, which occurs if a position is chosen incorrectly. But due to the fact that market makers work with large volumes of trades and a large number of clients, they always have an opportunity to cover their losses. Regards! R.Linda!
Education
by RLinda
30
RLinda ! EOSUSDT-> Price shake-up and subsequent sales!EOSUSDT on the chart you can see how the price twice tried to break the price channel upwards, but the second impulse only updated the local maximum and then made a false break. After the surge on the "Pumps" (in fact, a kind of shake-up), the price sells off heavily and goes down to the level of 1.410, the price breaks it and forms a consolidation in the short zone. I assume that if the price can consolidate in the short zone under this level, then we have the potential for the price to fall. The short-term target is the support of 1.27, the medium-term target is the liquidity zone of 1.155 Regards R.Linda!
Short
by RLinda
10
RLinda ! GBPUSD-> testing the support zone. What's next?GBPUSD on the chart clearly sees the downward price channel. The price will continue to be in a global bearish trend and it is logical to take the fact that the price will be in the channel for some time, as there are no preconditions to the break of this set-up. Earlier, the price broke through the consolidation downwards, broke through the first target 1.176 and almost reached the second 1.1600. These levels matter and that is why the price reacts strongly. I assume that in the near future we may see a pullback from the support zone, there are two key zones - the price channel support and the liquidity zone from the level of 1.1600. The short-term target is the resistance of 1.17600. Regards R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
7
CADCHF BEARISH SWING OFF RESISTANCE?Pair: CADCHF Timeframe: 1D , 4H Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, ascending triangle, consolidation ————— Key Takeaway: We have seen the level of resistance we are now at hold for a few weeks and price cannot seem to break it. If we close below round number and high volume level then we will be entering short ————— Level needed: need a close by 0.74470 ————— Trade: Short RISK:REWARD 1:5 SL: 15 TP: 75 ————— DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Short
by TheGoldRoom
RLinda ! ETHUSDT-> pullback to the resistance. What's next?ETHUSDT We see a manifestation of the strength of the bears, in the last idea I pointed out all the prerequisites for a further fall. The price is trading in a local downtrending price channel and after trying to reach support at 1355, but not reaching, we see a pullback. I assume since the trend was broken earlier, globally, the bears are strong at the moment and I think the channel resistance and resistance zone may play on further developments. There are several important liquidity zones on the chart, such as 1355, 1200, 1050 and 915, I assume that the price can head in that direction. I assume, as we see a pullback on higher volatility to resistance, I think the level will most likely not be broken, I expect a fall. The short-term target is support at 1355. Regards R.Linda!
Short
by RLinda
22
RLinda ! EURUSD-> Fighting for the strong zone 1.0000EURUSD. The price is at a very important point lately, which is the zone at 1.0000, which is a global and historically important price. On the chart we can see how the sellers and buyers are fighting very vigorously for positions relative to this level, while it is impossible to determine exactly who will win. We have a global downtrend, but there were attempts to break the trend, but when the price approaches the channel resistance - the attempts failed. I assume, if the price can consolidate above the level of 1.000, there is a huge potential for growth. The nearest short-term target is resistance 1.0194. Sincerely R. Linda!
Long
by RLinda
16
General Market commentYesterday I cut half of my open positions. Namely the digestion I was looking to get, in the obvious line of resistance (200DMA) is not acting as per model. Historical Precedent What is different is the way that the market digested the correction. I was expecting much more the a tight sideways digestion on low volume (green) but the action is not tight (purple). Now the low volume is there (red) ! However, this makes me much more cautious about the bullish scenario. The model we wanted was a much tighter action. Do not let low volume mislead you! Check out the correction in 2007. We started on low volume but then on the bottom the down volume picked up. To be honest we never really got to "panic" mode in this bear market. The PutCall, VIX - never really showed panic markers, on the top of that the meme stocks are breaking out. Point being is that it is not impossible to bottom without these but it is unlikely.
SP:SPXShort
by TintinTrading