You Can't Trade on Indicators Alone - Watch the TriggersYou cannot trade on technicals alone. One has to watch the triggers and wait for them to conclude. This was a case in point on Friday 26th August 2022, after the Jackson Hole speech by Fed Chair Jay Powell. Bulls drove the market up just prior to the speech thinking that released economic data was good for a continuation of the bear market rally. Then Chair Powell came on and in a few minutes the market tanked, BIG!!. The big shorts scored here.
The bottom line is don't trade on opinions or technicals alone. Watch for the triggers. Triggers are events, economic data and Fed decisions that sway the direction of the markets.
Market
BTC for the Downtrend BTC looking for a blood bath ?
9.15 am ( 5.30 + UTC ) BINANCE:BTCUSDT looks like for huge downtrend momentum with large volume portfolio. It s seems to gone around 18,500 - 19,000 range. Here is the one more confirmation thing to say ; 0.236 Fib Level available in around 18,500 - 18,900
*Let's see what will happen*
NAS END OF WEEK REVIEW 8/26I generally do my review for the next week, but Friday was a big day so I'm documenting my thoughts. The market moved lower as anticipated, however did not think it was just going to fall off a cliff. I think we keep pushing down from here, I see areas for short term bullish price action but my outlook remains bearish into the coming month/months.
BTC market cycles...Anger or Depression Stage 4? Look up that infamous "Wall Street Cheat Sheet, psychology of a market cycle" diagram
The 4th stage is the markdown and downtrend. In the very first cycle it looks pretty textbook where stage 1 is a consolidation box but crypto does crypto things...by the time COVID came the stage 4 into stage 1 is a WIDE and volatile type of consolidation which lead to the 2nd markup to ATHs.
This year we have inflation, another macro event! Stage 4 into a theoretical stage 1 could end up doing the same, it's definitely not clear cut or this stage extends further down first before a basing type of consolidation. But...the clue is to watch the 40 ma cross/rejection and what happens on this broadening pattern. A clear cross on the ma and pattern break could signal a new stage 1 (can have intermediate steps) in which a new set of unpredictable and volatile patterns form!
Btw this is speculative. I could redraw this as well and this could very well still be gigantic top on stage 3 (like cycle 1 pattern breakdown, this entire top here could also be a larger broadening pattern with a failed breakout) But I am looking at it in terms of smaller cycles and patterns but I will keep updating this analysis on it.
*** currently ***
1. bear flag
2. 3rd touch on broadening support bounce
3. price moving towards the 40ma
4. will it swing up to test resistance?
5. what/when/if will the next stage 1 base look like?
6. the last cycle just take notice the wide and sideways 1a/1b I pointed out.
7. last cycle lasted 700d, I duplicated that period of time to current cycle.
What if it repeats and it lines up right to where the bear flag could hit (channel upwards) the resistance?
8. the 40 ma cross/reject will be something interesting to watch.
...past performance is not indicative of future results...but sure lines up nice!
USDJPYSentimental Analysis = SELL
Fundamentals Analysis = SELL
Technical Analysis = SELL
Direction was Right
Didn't triggered
USDJPYSentimental Analysis = SELL
Fundamentals Analysis = BUY
Technical Analysis --> Had some moment for long before going down
Direction was Right
Didn't triggered
THE BEST PLACE TO BE SHORTING GBPNZDPair: GBPNZD
Timeframe: 1D , 4H
Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, trend channel
—————
Key Takeaway: GBP has significant weakness as it is and have been down trending for some time. We have just bounced off the top of the trend channel, high volume level and rounded number level which tells us we are in for another bearish swing
—————
Level needed: need a close by 1.90325
—————
Trade: Short
RISK:REWARD 1:4
SL: 40
TP: 150
—————
DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
USDCHF ARE WE ABOUT TO SEE A REVERSAL?Pair: USDCHF
Timeframe: 1D , 4H
Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, ascending triangle pattern, pennant
—————
Key Takeaway: We have broken our upwards trend line and seen a bounce off our resistance levels. We now need to see a push through support and rounded number and we will then be entering short
—————
Level needed: need a close by
—————
Trade: Short
RISK:REWARD 1:11
SL: 20
TP: 220
—————
DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Pending GDP announcements we could see this...I think GDP will be luke warm at best and we'll not retest the low, nor create a new one because most of our current condition has been priced in.
VIX has a death cross on the dailyWhat Is a Death Cross?
The "death cross" is a market chart pattern reflecting recent price weakness. It refers to the drop of a short-term moving average—meaning the average of recent closing prices for a stock, stock index, commodity or cryptocurrency over a set period of time—below a longer-term moving average. The most closely watched stock-market moving averages are the 50-day and the 200-day.
Despite its ominous name, the death cross is not a market milestone worth dreading. Market history suggests it tends to precede a near-term rebound with above-average returns. (investopedia)
Historically what happened when VIX has a death cross:
Death Cross Date. Spike date Range
8/20 2020 9/3 2020 21 to 41
11/17 2019 12/2 2019-2/25/2020 11-85
3/18 2019 3/22 2019 11-24
7/6 2018 10/10 2018 11-35
4/8 2016 6/24 2016 12-26
4/14 2015 5/6 and 6/30 2015 11-27
5/6 2014 8/1 2014 10-17
11/22 2014 2/3 2014 12-6
So statistically, When death cross is observed, VIX tend to bottom at 11's. After the bottom we tend to see a meaningful spike. Get ready for a great bull run for days/weeks.
NZDUSD CONTINUATION SETUPPair: NZDUSD
Timeframe: 1D , 4H
Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance, Fibonacci retracement
—————
Key Takeaway: Seen price break trend line and test support, we have also seen a bounce off 0.5 on the fib retracement level. As USD strength is still all there we will be shorting this pair as we are starting to see signs of a continuation of bearish movement
—————
Level needed: need a close by 0.61945
—————
Trade: Short
RISK:REWARD 1:7
SL: 15
TP: 100
—————
DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
AUDNZD DOUBLE TOP Pair: AUDNZD
Timeframe: 1D , 4H
Analysis: Round number level, trend line, volume profile, support and resistance
—————
Key Takeaway: Seen alot of resistance against trend line and a double top form on the 1H chart, once we see a good amount of bearish momentum we will be looking for short entry
—————
Level needed: need a close by 1.11460
—————
Trade: Short
RISK:REWARD 1:13
SL: 10
TP: 130
—————
DO NOT ENTER OUR SETUPS WITHOUT CONFIRMATION
Pennant forming Pennant forming
it's consolidating a bit so could go either way.
Most argue in favor of a trend.
New highs? I don't think so.
The daily has has two hanging man or hammers indicating a top.
Personally in favor of continuing trend
SPY Daily chartThe SPY laid out a nasty trap the past couple of weeks. After screaming up on a bear market rally the SPY made a huge gap up. If you take a look at the past months you'll see that most of the reversals after a bull run started with very similar gap. This gap lead me to go short a bit early. I got burned a bit but managed risk the best I could. As you can see the SPY gapped down Friday and closed near lows. This leads me to believe that the run may be coming to an end soon. There is no certainty but with the VIX closing red 10 straight weeks under some pretty tough financial conditions worldwide + lack of volume to support this rally. I think its logical that we may see some downside in the market in the near future.
ETH TO THE MOON BY OCTOBERHello guys, this is an analysis of short-term and long-term...
ETH has broken the resistance of 1280 recently, but it doesn't mean a bull run is coming, so you shouldn't worry about losing the opportunity of buying ETH, there's a GAP between 1300-1700 that should be filled and ETH goes back to the actual price, and the target will be below 1000$...
whenever ETH reaches above 2000$ again and stays there, it indicates a bull run and a new ATH will be patterned...
the current closest target is 1500...
Entry: 1305
TP: 1500$
SL: 1265$
Leverage: 1-5x
Follow me for more ideas...
