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Market_correction

Recalculated path to market bottomHere is a recalculated path to possible market bottom IF the current market top is in. Key Takeaways: Not as shallow or long as initial projections For now the bottom could be around August-September 2024 and no longer at the end of 2024 or first quarter of 2025 as initially projected. The maximum bottom based on historical data is 2850 and not likely. At best the bottom could be around 2900. I will continue to readjust targets and timelines as each wave downward is completed. There is a slight chance we are in wave 4 (downward) of the final wave 5 up, however, a wave 3 indicator is yet to occur and is beyond late on the hourly chart. It occurred properly on the daily chart when the final macro wave 3 (Intermediate wave 3) topped on June 16. A drop below 4328 should confirm the market has topped. A move above the current top of 4527 would mean the top is not in yet. The market will likely move down this week whether just entering Minor wave 4 of Intermediate wave 5 of Primary wave C in Cycle wave B up or in Primary wave 1 of Cycle wave C down The market should begin a major economic boom once the bottom is in next autumn. The bottom will end corrective wave--Supercycle wave 2, and begin Supercycle wave 3 which should be a major uptrend for 16-20 years minimum.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Latest Market Top Possibly In, Expect Some Red This WeekNext leg will be down, whether it continues down tomorrow or briefly moves up is to be seen. IF Intermediate wave 3 ended, it lasted less than the computer modeled 25 days as I forecasted. This would further mean Intermediate wave 5 must be less than or equal to the length of Intermediate wave 3 which was 20 days per the close on Friday. The models indicate Intermediate wave 4 could be quick and not too deep. Based on waves ending in 2BC4, wave 4 could last 2-12 days with strongest agreement on 2 days. The drop could be as shallow as a 13.73% or 15.06% retracements which are the light blue levels on the chart. That distance and duration seems too shallow initially. The next set of models are based on waves ending in BC4. The strongest agreement for duration remains at 2 days, with second strongest at 12 days followed by 4 and 10 days. The quartile retracement levels are 23.9%, 46.49% and 55.05%--the yellow levels on the chart. Based on waves ending in C4, the strongest agreement on duration as it 2 trading days again, second at 12 days, third at 4 days. Retracement quartiles are the white lines in the chart and correspond to 27.2%, 42.48%, and 55.05%. An additional consideration for the bottom is an intersection of the lines from the models and the support trendline from March 13. This line was broken for a single day at the probable end of Minute wave 4 inside of Minor wave 3 in Intermediate wave 3. A 2 day drop seems too quick while more than 10 could be too long. IF Intermediate wave 3 ending from Friday holds. The bottom of Intermediate wave 4 could be completed sometime this week or at the beginning of next week. I am currently placing the bottom to occur this Friday possibly around 4187-4210. This would be a shallow and slow drop considering the volatility of the past year. There is strong support around 4172-4177 if a quick drop occurs within 2 days but that target fades by day 3 (Wednesday). Intermediate wave 4 is setting up to be short lived and could be followed by a short Intermediate wave 5 as well. Early projections place the final market top over the next 4-6 years later this month around 4400, although we could fall just shy of 4400. Still think the Fed, PPI, and CPI can catapult the market up after our quick jaunt down with Intermediate wave 4. A logical black swan for the top is still a Taiwan invasion that rocks all industries relying on microchips or parts from Taiwan. This would likely delay the AI future and all companies heavily invested in it. Next analysis to follow when Intermediate wave 4 appears to have wrapped.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Final Market Drop For Now Looks Like...We are potentially in the early stages of Primary wave 5 in overall Cycle A of SuperCycle 2. SuperCycle 2 began shortly after the beginning of January this year as we are yet to revisit a new all-time high for the S&P 500 index. The wave number nomenclature for this wave being analyzed is 152A5. I may reference the end of this structure (2A5 or A5) when comparing against historical data. I will try to forward forecast the end of Cycle A which will coincide with the end of Primary wave 5. I will do this by studying the relationships of each Primary wave we have encountered and compare it to the historical relationships between each wave and wave 5. After a rough timeline to completion is established, I will then work backwards and attempt to plot the endpoints for each of the 5 Intermediate waves inside of Primary wave 5. This blueprint will be tweaked as we move through Primary wave 5. (NOTE: If we are still in Primary wave 4, I will re-accomplish these steps once wave 4 appears to have concluded. We are likely still in wave 4 if a high above 4012 is achieved this week, however, Friday July 29, 2022 is likely the last day in this wave.) WAVELENGTH BASED ON STRUCTURE ENDING (A5 / 2A5) Based on all waves ending in 2A5, the strongest model agreement suggests this current wave will last 23 trading days. The second strongest agreement is at 46 days and third strongest at 19 days. Primary wave 1 lasted 35 days, wave 2 was 23 days, wave 3 was 56 days, and as of now wave 4 is 23 days. Waves ending in 2A5 tend to makeup 14.29-16-25% of the larger waves they reside inside with the first value being the 1st quartile, second is the median, and last is 3rd quartile based on all available data. Based on the duration of Primary waves 1 through 4 and application of the 14.29-25% values, Primary 5 could last 23, 26, or 46 days. Waves ending in A5 slightly expand this range with a 15.38-19.18-29.03% quartile breakdown. Replicating this analysis per the last portion, Primary 5 could last 25, 32, or 56 days. Primary waves ending in 2A5 makeup 15.56% - 36.95% of the wave in which they reside. This would add lengths of 25 and 80 days. Primary wave 5 has moved beyond the length of Primary wave 3 on only 2 of 28 occasions. This means the overall length will likely be less than 56 trading days. There are other studied areas and ratios, however the standard deviations in the data does not point to much consistency. The ratio between the duration of Primary wave 4 to Primary wave 5 sits in a relatively small window. Wave 4’s duration in trading days to wave 5 has a median ratio of 0.4358. This means wave 4’s duration of 23 days divided by 0.4358 could see Primary wave 5 lasting 53 days. Quartile 1’s ratio is 0.2517 and quartile 3 is 0.6507. The first quartile would have the length at 91 days while the third quartile would be 35 days. For reference, 23 days would end August 24; 25—August 26; 26—August 29; 32—September 7; 35—September 12; 46—September 27; 56—October 11; 80—November 14; 91—November 30. Most of these days point to a potential bottom by mid-September, however, Primary wave 5 may end as late as November. Calculating the duration of the waves has proven one of the more difficult tasks undertaken during Elliott Wave forecasting, but we are getting better. Realistically we may drop until the next Federal Reserve meeting in September where inflation may appear under more control than it has been. That meeting is scheduled for September 21. WAVE MOVEMENT FORECASTING Wave 5 tends to extend beyond the end of wave 3’s value. These extensions are considered as percentages of wave 3’s movement. If Primary wave 5 drops to the end of Primary wave 3 at 3636.87, then 100% of wave 3’s movement would have been achieved. Waves ending in 2A5 have extensions with the quartile breakdowns of 112.36%-135.09%-204.51%. Waves ending in A5 have a quartile breakdown of 112.36-122.26-163.93%. Primary wave 5s have a quartile breakdown of 105.86-120.12-153.08%. Lastly, Primary wave 5s ending in A5 extend 112.36%, 114.06%, 116.69%, and 203.9% beyond Primary wave 3. Most of these levels have been plotted on the chart above. Another datapoint for forecasting movement is how much wave 5 makes up of the overall wave in which it resides. Waves ending in A5 makeup 36.90%-49.71%-74.18% in the quartile breakdown. Waves ending in 2A5 makeup 30.60%-56.75%-86.46%. Primary wave 5’s tend to makeup 26.305-41.04-51.51% in the quartile breakdown. Primary waves ending in 2A5 specifically makeup 21.37%, 23.51%, 36.09% and 75.12%. Assuming Wave 5 moves beyond the end of Primary wave 3, wave 5’s movement should account for greater than 32% of the overall wave. If Primary wave 5 makes up greater than 70%, the market bottom would be below 2112. This level is well beyond the rare drop level of 2636 which would be a 200% extension of Primary wave 3. Movement below 2636 is likely out of the realm of possible for this Primary wave 5. This would mean wave 5 will likely account for 32%-63% of Cycle wave A’s movement. The bottom of Cycle wave A Primary wave 5 should occur within the highlighted box in the chart above.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
The Bull Case Inside the Overall Bear MarketI had the markets in wave 1532C, but a few things happened late or not at all. In fact, this whole downturn in January was 2 months sooner than I had initially forecasting. Timing the market is hard, and I not perfect. Learning from my mistakes and asking what could have happened or where did I go wrong is what makes me better at all of this. I have missed three calls so far so I began to ask why? I initially called wave A down prematurely. Instead of calling out the bottom of A, I found what I then thought was the bottom of wave 3 inside of A. Then, I misidentified the end of B, but it happens. I was wrong on A, but for good reason. A would have been a 5 wave pattern down, followed by a 3-wave pattern upward for wave B. I found the 5 waves and 3 waves so I asked what else could this be? The economy is not getting better as long as fuel prices rise. These prices will continue to elevate the price of everything until it is addressed. I had us coming out of this mess a week ago, but the economy and Fed never made sense to me. I assumed it would be a quick end to the war as well. I have been wrong, but why? I identified 5 waves down but that is because we were in wave 1 of wave A. What the 3 waves for my wave B call was actually the 3 waves of a wave 2 inside of wave A. Everything stemmed from my identification of the COVID crash in March 2020. I marked that anomaly as the wrong wave structure but never felt right about it. I have now re-marked the waves in the chart above and will eventually have all of the statistics to test my newest theory. I had us about to wrap up Cycle wave 2 inside of Supercycle wave 3. I no longer believe we are that far along. I still have us in Sub-Millennial wave 1 (began June 1877) and Grand Supercycle wave 5 which began March 2009. However, I only have the market in Supercycle wave 2 and Cycle wave A—-both beginning in January this year. I further have us in Primary wave 4 which should end soon and we will likely continue our downward movement below the prior low of 3810.32 before then end of June. This would finally end Cycle wave A. Next step is a 3-wave structure upward over the next 1-2 months which could top between 4400-4900. I will have more details soon. We will then find the new bottom in a 5-wave downward pattern which will complete Cycle wave C and Supercycle wave 2. This would likely occur 3-5 months after it begins with a low between 3000-3300. This structure fits much more inline with the economic outlook and fuel prices. The new Congress sits in January in the US as well. As long as Congress and the White House are controlled by differing parties, lopsided legislation capable of harming half the country should not pass. Fuel prices will only get better with unilateral action from the White House, some sort of bi-partisanship, or a majority strong enough to override a veto (this longshot is doubtful, but so were the Bengals to make it to the Super Bowl). If this structure is correct, the first thing to occur will be a break to the downside within the next 3-5 trading days at the latest. If this structure is wrong, we will move above 4800 before we go below 4000 and I will once again ask why en route to the next theory.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
OLED looks overbought again, time for snapback?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on June 3, 2022 with a closing price of 124.42. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 123.68 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.843% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 6.8475% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 12.939499999999999% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 40 trading bars after the signal. A 0.5% decline must occur over the next 40 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 5.0 trading bars; half occur within 16.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 31.5 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:OLEDShort
by StockSignaler
NBHC about to correct with the rest of market?Based on historical movement, the peak could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending bottom should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated SELL on May 27, 2022 with a closing price of 40.89. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should decline to at least 40.73 which is the top of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock decline 1.425% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the top of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock decline 2.254% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock decline 3.606% from the signal closing price which is the bottom of the smaller green box. The maximum decline on record would see a move to the bottom of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The trough of the decline can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max decline occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% decline must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 7 trading bars; half occur within 24 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 37 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NYSE:NBHCShort
by StockSignaler
Its A TRAP!!!The market should finish Intermediate Wave 4 today, possibly in the morning before we head down again to Groundhog Day. My models have the most agreement around 4436 for the top so that is my conservative top for now. Wave 5 still needs to take us below Intermediate Wave 3's bottom of 4222.62. Earliest guess is a bottom south of 4100 and relatively quick. I will readjust once wave 4 data is finalized. Great news for most of February as it is rally time. But the rally will be short-lived. Earliest forecasts are gains around 11% off the bottom but this could change. We have one more major fall set for end of February and most of March. After that we will work back toward all-time highs. Regarding the gap this morning is Fed-hype, maybe hoping the "jobs data" will delay the Fed's action. But reality will set in after the meeting that inflation is out of control, hence the drop to end this month. Then short-term memory will forget the last month as large company earnings trickle out in February which likely paints a semi-rosier picture than what we had from the inflation fears. Inflation is here to stay, the new prices we pay today WILL BE the lowest prices we pay from here on. Businesses will not slash prices once people are accustomed to paying them and the businesses are complacent with the profits.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1
Crashing or Correcting? I say...This appears to be perfectly in line with an expected correction. Cycle 1 just end at the beginning of January, which was about 2 earlier than my initial estimates but that is why I call them estimates. Cycle 2 should bottom around early March. Historically speaking, the second Cycle wave retraces the length of its wave 1 by 10-23%. The largest retracement was 39%, but corrections appear to be quicker and steeper these days so I am sticking with the 10-23% range as the likely zone for this one. A 23% could have this wave last 104 days which is late May. I would call this retracement the least likely. This date can serve as the maximum possible bottom. The majority of historical datapoints suggest the end of this Cycle wave could end 44-48 trading days after it begun. This is the early March endpoint, discussed above. I have painted these narrow zones based off of typical wave 2 retracements of wave 1. The major zones for the bottom are between 3989.09-4166.66, 3800-3989.09, and 3605.84-3800. My initial rough math guess was a bottom around 3636, but I am favoring the middle zone here. We still have hundreds of points to shave off the index so I expect the next months to be rocky. Remember Cycle wave 2 is a 3-wave pattern down (in this case). That means wave A will be down, wave B will move up, I will provide better estimates on that soon. Lastly wave C will take us home to the bottom. My second analysis will be where I project the current SuperCycle to end, based on the end of Cycle 1.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
1